MavsBoard

(10-13-2020, 11:18 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]In that scenario I see $79.3M committed and $29.8M in cap space. I think the difference in our numbers is due to the minimum cap holds. If the minimum scale stays flat, I believe that keeps it at only $898,310.

Code:

KP        $31.7
Doncic    $10.2
Kleber    $8.8
Curry     $8.2
DFS       $4.0
(Powell)  $4.4
#18       $3.0 (120% of rookie scale)
(WCS)     $3.0
Brunson   $1.8
#31       $1.5 (same as Roby deal)
(Min x3)  $2.7

Total     $79.3

Yes.  I agree with your numbers.  I was carrying the minimum salary(s) at a higher level.  Thanks.  

With that knowledge, I now show our current status for 2021 as being $16mm in room (no one leaves except expiring THJ and Jackson, we make both picks and keep the WCS hold).  We need $16.7mm more in room to get to $32.7 ($900k less if we S&T for Giannis).

Here is what I find interesting.  We are actually better off using the S/W on Wright than on Powell if you assume the other one will be traded to create the rest of the room.  S/W Powell and trade Wright creates $13mm worth of room (Powell saves $6.65mm and trading Wright saves $8.525mm).  S/W of Wright and trade of Powell creates $16.7mm...just enough BTW (Wright saves $5.7mm and trading Powell saves $11.1mm).

This is all academic as some here presume Powell is dog meat and has negative value and we've seen two national writers call him a "value contract".  No one knows because no one knows what his return will look like.  Also, some here presume Wright has positive value and some presume it will cost something to move him.  Either way, the cost of Giannis is THJ, Wright and at least one more major contract whether by trade or by S/W.  We've simply moved the conversation from Maxi to Powell.

For me the plan is very simple. 

Item 1, plan A:
trade Wright+(if needed) salary fillers+ (if needed) pick(s) for a better fitting expiring player. Who that might be, we discussed many times. It makes us better now and keep flexible for 2021. If we can get good player like Schroeder - great. If best we can do is something like Wright+Jackson for James Johnson or Wright for Snell - still good. Perhaps Wright+Jackson+#18 for Snell and Kennard?

Item 1, plan B: 
if no trade is found, keep still, wait for TDL. Worst case, we flip Wright next offseason - it will be cheaper because he will be expiring

Item 2, plan A:
Sign someone for MLE. I guess plan A (and the only plan) would be a one year deal, although I would personally prefer a four year value deal than a meh player on one year deal (meh because good players took longer term deals elsewhere). It might be better to keep this MLE player and get rid of someone else (like Powell) to free cap space in 2021. 

Item 3 (optional): upgrade our non Wright longer term contracts (DFS, Curry, Maxi) + (optional) assets for better players on expiring contracts. Like Curry for JRich ideas. It makes us better short term and increases flexibility in 2021. Only execute if something good is available.

Item 4: Powell. Keep still. Too expensive to trade now. Wait and try to rebuild his value.

I just don´t see the logic behind any attempt to clear capspace instead of improving the roster this summer. No reason to punt on this years free agency and the MLE when the Mavs could easily clear capspace next summer. Why trade this years 1st when they can also wait a year and use the 2025 pick.
For whatever reason the MBT thinks that they need to clear capspace a year before they might need it. Do it when you have a free agent that is willing to sign a contract.

(10-14-2020, 08:32 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I just don´t see the logic behind any attempt to clear capspace instead of improving the roster this summer. No reason to punt on this years free agency and the MLE when the Mavs could easily clear capspace next summer. Why trade this years 1st when they can also wait a year and use the 2025 pick.
For whatever reason the MBT thinks that they need to clear capspace a year before they might need it. Do it when you have a free agent that is willing to sign a contract.

There's nothing wrong with clearing cap space if you don't make your team WORSE in the process, and there are actually ways they can do it that would make the team BETTER. 

The only two long term deals they have on the books that are in the way of this strategy are Wright and Powell. Powell is a rotation player here, but they just did a stretch run and playoff series without him. Wright isn't even a rotation player!

I fail to see how transforming one or both of those players into players (who might actually be rotation guys, btw) with expiring contracts at some point between now and the trade deadline would be waiving the white flag on this, coming season.

Using Porzingis to clear Hardaway and Lee, like the Knicks did, now THAT is stupid. The Mavs will be a playoff team next season with or without Wright and/or Powell.

(10-14-2020, 08:32 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I just don´t see the logic behind any attempt to clear capspace instead of improving the roster this summer. No reason to punt on this years free agency and the MLE when the Mavs could easily clear capspace next summer. Why trade this years 1st when they can also wait a year and use the 2025 pick.
For whatever reason the MBT thinks that they need to clear capspace a year before they might need it. Do it when you have a free agent that is willing to sign a contract.

This is the crux of it all. We talk about the sweeping change in coaching and players in the NBA, but don't talk about the sweeping changes in strategies on acquiring players. This is the biggest divergence from those that try to think about what the FO WILL do, as opposed to what they SHOULD do (and very much CAN do, if they had personnel that had the confidence to execute such a plan). The antiquated way of clearing space year after year is so outdated and was never an actual good plan to begin with.

(10-14-2020, 08:41 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]There's nothing wrong with clearing cap space if you don't make your team WORSE in the process, and there are actually ways they can do it that would make the team BETTER. 

If your plan from the get go is to find deals that help you clear space, you very well could miss out on deals/players that upgrade your team. I don't have a problem with the clear capspace plan as the last avenue to upgrade our team after  we've exhausted every other possibility.

You're limiting the possibilities of what this team CAN be, by limiting the ways you can work. Now, the only limitation I would put on that is signing players over their worth, but not acquiring players over their worth as long as they come attached with the target of such a deal in appropriate valuation.

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Do I remember incorrectly or was this clear capspace plan stemmed from the Mavs not even getting a sit down with LeBron because of his saying they didn't have the capspace? Seems like that is the incident that hatched this whole idea.

(10-14-2020, 08:49 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]This is the crux of it all. We talk about the sweeping change in coaching and players in the NBA, but don't talk about the sweeping changes in strategies on acquiring players. This is the biggest divergence from those that try to think about what the FO WILL do, as opposed to what they SHOULD do (and very much CAN do, if they had personnel that had the confidence to execute such a plan). The antiquated way of clearing space year after year is so outdated and was never an actual good plan to begin with.

In this case, this is what I believe they SHOULD do. Not sure if they WILL, but I think so.

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(10-14-2020, 08:56 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]You're limiting the possibilities of what this team CAN be, by limiting the ways you can work. 

Not at all. I'm envisioning a path that leads to MORE options, not fewer.

Seeing those Nuggets trade ideas scares me. They definitely have ammunition to make a big move. I worry ab the Mavs getting left behind bc we are keeping powder dry for 2021.

Powell is dead money to me, not to mention the Mavs brass like him anyway. The TDL is too soon imo for him to restore his value and I don't believe his value ever gets fully restored. He can be effective as a bench big but he's unlikely to regain the athleticism he had. After next year he is still has 22 mil left on his deal. I just think he's as immovable as it gets. Could you technically move him for "something" in theory? Yes, but you are going to be receiving someone else's problem so it's unlikely to happen.

(10-14-2020, 10:29 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The TDL is too soon imo for him to restore his value

Why would you think this? 

If DP comes out in the first 30 games of the season and looks like he is at least 90% of his athletic ability, then he has restored his value (which was not just athleticism, but the skill of finishing around the rim, the great locker room presence, the solid perimeter D, etc). It obviously may take longer to see him get his full confidence back, but it is 100% possible for him to show he has recovered most of his athleticism and therefore restore his value in the first few months.

(10-14-2020, 10:29 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Seeing those Nuggets trade ideas scares me. They definitely have ammunition to make a big move. I worry ab the Mavs getting left behind bc we are keeping powder dry for 2021.

They're not "keeping powder dry" if they do this. We're not talking about letting the rotation players expire for nothing. We're talking about getting rid of one guy who's not in the rotation (Wright) and possibly another (Powell) whose injury makes his status iffy. This will likely not all happen next week. There's a good chance one or both start the season here. 

We're also talking about NOT trading for players on bad contracts who won't help very much. How is that different from any other year? Like, forget about 2021 - do you want average players with guaranteed money on the team? If they can get a GOOD player (better than the current rotation players) then they probably will, as they can simply shift into a mindset of moving whomever the new guy replaces. Find someone better than Kleber, with Wright, Powell or both outgoing? Fine! Great! Do it! Kleber's contract is AMAZING, and you could move it in a HEARTBEAT. That's the kind of deal you CAN make if/when Giannis (or anyone else) decides to come here. People will WANT Kleber on that contract. 

This strategy is nothing, and I mean absolutely NOTHING like the crap fish had us reading for the past 6-7 years, because they HAVE A GOOD TEAM. The downside is not "welp, we struck out, so I guess it's back to the drawing board." Chandler Parsons and Harrison Barnes were both extremely "meh" when they signed here, but that's because we all knew they needed a STAR. In this case, that's not absolutely necessary. Can you imagine adding a Chandler Parsons level guy to this core, but one who fits with your identity on and off the court? I mean, that's already established. Parsons was supposed to BE the identity back then (gross). THAT'S the fall back, and imo, it's going to be WAY easier to find the right fit on that type of player with the kind of options that this strategy brings, EVEN THROUGH TRADE. You no longer need TWO WAY MATCH to make a trade.

This strategy gives you way MORE options. It's not just about Giannis, though isn't that the dream? Dallas has NEVER had a player like Luka. He's better than Dirk, better than young Kidd, etc, etc. This is not a time for the Mavericks to limit their potenital by thinking small.

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(10-14-2020, 10:41 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-14-2020, 10:29 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The TDL is too soon imo for him to restore his value

Why would you think this? 

If DP comes out in the first 30 games of the season and looks like he is at least 90% of his athletic ability, then he has restored his value (which was not just athleticism, but the skill of finishing around the rim, the great locker room presence, the solid perimeter D, etc). It obviously may take longer to see him get his full confidence back, but it is 100% possible for him to show he has recovered most of his athleticism and therefore restore his value in the first few months.

100%

Hell, I'm not convinced they couldn't move him right now, if they really wanted to. Didn't the Mavs sign Mathews coming off of an Achilles? 

The contract is not bad. For a team that envisions him as a starter, and trust me, some out there would (if healthy), he's pretty damn cheap! 

If you are GIVING a player like Powell away, someone will want to take him.

(10-14-2020, 11:05 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]100%

Hell, I'm not convinced they couldn't move him right now, if they really wanted to. Didn't the Mavs sign Mathews coming off of an Achilles? 

The contract is not bad. For a team that envisions him as a starter, and trust me, some out there would (if healthy), he's pretty damn cheap! 

If you are GIVING a player like Powell away, someone will want to take him.

(10-14-2020, 10:41 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-14-2020, 10:29 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The TDL is too soon imo for him to restore his value

Why would you think this? 

If DP comes out in the first 30 games of the season and looks like he is at least 90% of his athletic ability, then he has restored his value (which was not just athleticism, but the skill of finishing around the rim, the great locker room presence, the solid perimeter D, etc). It obviously may take longer to see him get his full confidence back, but it is 100% possible for him to show he has recovered most of his athleticism and therefore restore his value in the first few months.

It's a 2 year type of injury and I don't see him regaining that athleticism back soon or potentially ever. Mavs will give him every chance to return. I wish the Mavs were looking to dump Powell but we know they love him. For those reasons I have taken Powell off of any trade ideas for at least a year.

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(10-14-2020, 11:22 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-14-2020, 11:05 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]100%

Hell, I'm not convinced they couldn't move him right now, if they really wanted to. Didn't the Mavs sign Mathews coming off of an Achilles? 

The contract is not bad. For a team that envisions him as a starter, and trust me, some out there would (if healthy), he's pretty damn cheap! 

If you are GIVING a player like Powell away, someone will want to take him.

I am 100% convinced they could not move him. Matthews was a guy they thought would not be hampered by a decrease in athleticism (they were wrong). Powell's game relies a lot on athleticism. I think you both have rose-colored glasses. His contract is not cheap, people aren't going to picture damaged-goods Powell as a starter. Could he regain value eventually? Sure but certainly not now and best case scenario is that it takes a full year for him to look anything close to what he was.

If he is as great as you say he is, why has everyone on this board been eager to dump him for nothing?? We know why, he's overpaid and will unlikely regain that athleticism that made him effective. I am rooting for Powell to surprise us all. If that happens then the Mavs will want to keep him. They love him. So I am just saying a) he's not tradable at this time and b) MBT don't want to trade him any time soon anyway.

(10-14-2020, 11:25 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I wish the Mavs were looking to dump Powell but we know they love him.

They do love him. I love him, too. They also loved Harrison Barnes, and not just in a "say something nice about him as he's on his way out the door" sort of way. I think they REALLY loved that dude. 

If/when they decide they want his money off the books, they'll figure out a way to get rid of him. I tend to agree that it won't happen this off season, but I think there's a better than 50% chance he's gone by the trade deadline.

(10-14-2020, 11:29 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I think there's a better than 50% chance he's gone by the trade deadline

I am surprised you think this. I think WCS would have to develop into a certain and reliable 1st big off the bench at least for the Mavs to do this. OR if they drafted someone like Achiuwa. 

I would think there is only a 10% chance DP is gone by the deadline. 

Will be interesting to see it play out.

(10-14-2020, 11:25 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I am rooting for Powell to surprise us all. If that happens then the Mavs will want to keep him. They love him. So I am just saying a) he's not tradable at this time and b) MBT don't want to trade him any time soon anyway.

I really think you've missed the big picture, dating all the way back to the signing. They were ALREADY planning for the summer of 2021 back THEN, which logically means that they signed the contract thinking they would (in their ideal scenario) move him at some point between the signing and this upcoming trade deadline. Yes, the injury makes that more difficult, but definitely not impossible. And yes, they ALSO believe that should they choose not to move him, he could play an important role here effectively. 

THIS NEXT PART IS NOT DIRECTED AT STEPBACK, AS HE'S ONE OF THE FEW THAT BUYS INTO THE 2021 SPACE IDEA

So, basically, what they did with Dwight Powell PROVES that they're approaching this cap space situation differently than the way that makes everyone crazy. They DID sign a player they thought could help them, but who they were confident they could move if/when they needed. Powell. Last year, they did the same thing with Curry, Wright and Boban. They would've done it with Kemba, too. They WILL do that again this off-season, if they find an opportunity they LIKE. 

It's not the strategy that you guys are disagreeing with, it's their evaluation of who would actually make a difference here. They DO think Powell is a good player. They think he's movable, AND they think he's a fit here if they don't need to move him. This, in a nutshell, is exactly what everyone has been screaming for them to do. YOU JUST DON'T LIKE THE SAME PLAYERS THEY DO.

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(10-14-2020, 11:38 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-14-2020, 11:29 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I think there's a better than 50% chance he's gone by the trade deadline

I am surprised you think this. I think WCS would have to develop into a certain and reliable 1st big off the bench at least for the Mavs to do this. OR if they drafted someone like Achiuwa. 

I would think there is only a 10% chance DP is gone by the deadline. 

Will be interesting to see it play out.

I thought they viewed Powell as expendable and on a value deal the day they signed the contract. I felt then and still feel like the summer of 2021 has been the plan this entire time. 

That doesn't mean that I don't think they value the player. I think they believed they were getting a value player on a value deal. Easy to move, easy to be excited about keeping him. The injury clouds things on both sides of that coin, but I'm not as worried as some, and I think we agree about that.

(10-14-2020, 11:40 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I really think you've missed the big picture, dating all the way back to the signing. They were ALREADY planning for the summer of 2021 back THEN, which logically means that they signed the contract thinking they would (in their ideal scenario) move him at some point between the signing and this upcoming trade deadline. Yes, the injury makes that more difficult, but definitely not impossible. And yes, they ALSO believe that should they choose not to move him, he could play an important role here effectively. 

THIS NEXT PART IS NOT DIRECTED AT STEPBACK, AS HE'S ONE OF THE FEW THAT BUYS INTO THE 2021 SPACE IDEA

So, basically, what they did with Dwight Powell PROVES that they're approaching this cap space situation differently than the way that makes everyone crazy. They DID sign a player they thought could help them, but who they were confident they could move if/when they needed. Powell. Last year, they did the same thing with Curry, Wright and Boban. They would've done it with Kemba, too. They WILL do that again this off-season, if they find an opportunity they LIKE. 

It's not the strategy that you guys are disagreeing with, it's their evaluation of who would actually make a difference here. They DO think Powell is a good player. They think he's movable, AND they think he's a fit here if they don't need to move him. This, in a nutshell, is exactly what everyone has been screaming for them to do. YOU JUST DON'T LIKE THE SAME PLAYERS THEY DO.

I'm not certain they intended to move Powell. Before covid hit, the expected 2021 cap was $125M. Dallas handed out contracts to Curry, Wright, Powell, Kleber, and Finney-Smith, and managed to maintain almost exactly $37.5M (a max slot for Giannis) in projected 2021 cap space. I don't think that was a coincidence. They structured the contracts to hit that number by having some increase in value, some decline, and some stay flat from year to year. 

I have to think they would have approached things differently if they had known that the cap would not reach anywhere near the original projection. But it's hard for me to guess who they would have prioritized signing. It's possible they felt strongly enough about Powell that he would have received the same extension and they would passed on Wright.

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(10-14-2020, 11:05 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]If you are GIVING a player like Powell away, someone will want to take him.

I don't agree. Not without us taking salary back. Good teams don't have salary cap (if they have, they are not spending it on Powells of the world) and bad teams are not giving away their cap for nothing. Miami had to pay FRP to move 1 year of Harkless, who can be considered as similar level player as Powell.

(10-14-2020, 11:40 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I thought they viewed Powell as expendable and on a value deal the day they signed the contract. I felt then and still feel like the summer of 2021 has been the plan this entire time.

If the cap was going up as planned then DP wouldn't have needed to be moved to have room in 2021. 

My position:

They will move DP only if Giannis or another target is available and interested in 2021. I think they will not move DP until the summer and will only do so IF they need the space at the time. (Unless of course a deal comes along you cannot say no to.)

(10-14-2020, 12:30 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not certain they intended to move Powell. Before covid hit, the expected 2021 cap was $125M. Dallas handed out contracts to Curry, Wright, Powell, Kleber, and Finney-Smith, and managed to maintain almost exactly $37.5M (a max slot for Giannis) in projected 2021 cap space. I don't think that was a coincidence. They structured the contracts to hit that number by having some increase in value, some decline, and some stay flat from year to year. 

I have to think they would have approached things differently if they had known that the cap would not reach anywhere near the original projection. But it's hard for me to guess who they would have prioritized signing. It's possible they felt strongly enough about Powell that he would have received the same extension and they would passed on Wright.

This is a fair observation. My overall point is that I believe they've been planning all of this for quite a while, and I don't believe they've been making any signings that they believe are too risky. I think they feel confident they can move Wright, too. For that matter, I think they view pretty much every contract on their roster as a value contract, with the exception of Porzingis (max) and THJ, who is expiring, and probably has significant value for that reason, alone. 

This is probably why I didn't think last off season was bad, the way some people did. I saw it as trying to improve the team in the most risk-averse way possible. And, tbh, they were successful. They made the playoffs. The only thing they actually did that was unsuccessful was the Wright signing. They misevaluated that one, somehow, but it should have worked, so I don't blame them. And it's not that big of a deal, because other teams will want him on that contract! Curry and Boban are also both value players on value contracts. We call those assets. 

I think Hield would be great here. I just have a feeling, the way some other people have feelings about Josh Richardson or Aaron Gordon, for example. But, because I understand the big picture of what they're trying to pull off, I'm not going to get butthurt about the team not getting excited about Hield, because I understand that if/when Giannis goes off the board, there are very possibly 3-4 fallback options at that point that would be way more attractive than trading for Hield now (and again, these opportunities are NOT limited to the list of names of 2021 free agents).  And, the Mavericks will be better next year, even if they do nothing this off season. This is likely the one and only time we'll be able to say that, and it's happening the off season right before their big space plans kick in??? I feel like everything is falling into place really nicely for the Mavs, personally. I see some luck, but I also see some good planning. 

This time, the Mavericks are not ruining a title team to do this. They are building a young team deliberately and cautiously. This approach could very well be the difference between Dirk's career as we knew it or an alternate timeline where he got 3-4 rings. They need to think BIGGER this time. This plan doesn't die if/when Giannis signs his super max in Milwaukee. They have between now and Luka's rookie max extension to build this team. They'll be able to improve the team after that, yes, but doing so will be much more difficult (see Milwaukee, right now).  I hope they keep all options open until the RIGHT one presents itself.

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(10-14-2020, 12:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-14-2020, 11:40 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I thought they viewed Powell as expendable and on a value deal the day they signed the contract. I felt then and still feel like the summer of 2021 has been the plan this entire time.

If the cap was going up as planned then DP wouldn't have needed to be moved to have room in 2021. 

My position:

They will move DP only if Giannis or another target is available and interested in 2021. I think they will not move DP until the summer and will only do so IF they need the space at the time. (Unless of course a deal comes along you cannot say no to.)

Dude, you might be totally right about this. Same page. I said the TDL, but your way is even a little better. 

My point is that they didn't sign him to a deal that they didn't believe was movable. There were probably other ways to skin the cat at a higher cap projection, but I believe in the event that the plan was implemented for Giannis, specifically, Powell was always going to be a preferable sacrifice, due to their positional overlap. If the target ended up being a guard, then sure, I can buy that they planned on keeping Powell and getting the room a different way.