(09-23-2020, 10:18 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]@"fifteenth" my position is that the Mavs have been obsessed with cap space since 2012 and that's been the case. They value cap space over trades for any player that is not a star. The KP trade was great and it leveraged the MBT's nuclear winter idea which actually panned out for this one unique circumstance.
The thing I was commenting on is that I would much rather have a Gordon-type even if they aren't a "star" rather than thinking hey we can sign somebody like that in 2021 with all this cap space. As we saw last offseason, we had cap space and Curry was the only asset we came away with. We shed Barnes for basically nothing when he could have been a potential asset on a 1 yr deal. That's my issue.
I think that's all reasonable, except maybe that the Harrison Barnes comments that have been floating around seem a little revisionist and based on hindsight.
The thing about 2021 cap space is that there are some differences with the team pre-offseason, some differences in this cap space opportunity, and some differnces in the team's current competitive timeline when compared to all those post 2011 plan powder teams.
This team has Luka, and Luka just had a season that included being a top 5 player in the league and being even better in the playoffs. Luka is the free agent draw. The plan powder teams never had anything close to that as a draw.
The possibility of teaming Luka with Giannis, combined with Luka as a draw for Giannis, or for a fall back free agent, makes the opportunity of this offseason more inviting than any of those other plan powder offseasons.
Lastly, and you may disagree with this, but the Mavs aren't quite in "win now" mode. They're more in "win now if we can, but the priority is to keep building this team" mode. This team's real championship window probably opens in 21/22.
So here's the deal. I hope the team does enough due diligence to know if a pursuit of Giannis is worth it. They obviously failed at that with Kemba. But the upside of landing Giannis, lure of Luka, and the team's timeline all suggest that the pursuit might be worth the gamble this time.
(09-23-2020, 10:50 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The odds of expirings + no picks after draft night? netting another star player are almost zero. Most star players are moved for players of value + picks. I think MBT will do it anyway just because they like to keep their "powder dry." They just tend to think they can sign anybody they want with enough cap space.
They just think the draft is a waste of time. I would probably feel the same way, if I had drafted bums like Dirk and Luka.
Nothing good ever comes out of the draft.
Therefore it´s better to trade 1st round picks for a cocaine addict, the NBA Connect Four champion, the homecoming of Rudy Fernandez and a gianniormous 275k in capspace.
![[Image: tenor.gif]](https://media1.tenor.com/images/009c3e4efadb032a7b8a5701cb5d67e7/tenor.gif)
(09-23-2020, 10:44 AM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]With no 2019 cap space there was never gonna be KP in Mavs jersey.
And why is that? I don't understand
(09-23-2020, 11:02 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Giannis
This makes me irritated
Giannis chances are so low, that it is just silly to build the strategy on 2021 cap space. Build best team possible and forget cap space problem. If he actually wants to come, clear cap space for as much as it will be missing.
Important part of being an attractive destination for Giannis is also showing a clear step forward from this season. Can we really be sure that is possible without serious reinforcements? Curry, Maxi, DFS, THJ, Luka all had career years. How much better can they be? Is it possible they take a step back? West will be absolutely brutal next year so it is possible for Mavs to miss the playoffs. Will they still be (so) attractive for Giannis as you think they are now?
I would like to invite everyone in to the Luka era. We no longer have to judge Mavs possibilities based on post 2011 plan powder practices. If you widen your view and look at pre 2011 as well as more recent offseasons, we know that trades are part of the Mavs' tool box, and there is evidence that they're taking the draft more seiously. I'm going to give them some leeway to earn either my praise or ire. No reason to camp out in the post 2011 pit.
If Detroit is looking to rebuild it' will be interesting what they think about 18+31+ Wright for Luke Kennard.
(09-23-2020, 11:29 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (09-23-2020, 11:26 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I would like to invite everyone in to the Luka era.
I know no other era
omahen, if we haven't made this clear before now....
Welcome to the Mavs, pal.
(09-23-2020, 11:02 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ] (09-23-2020, 10:18 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]@"fifteenth" my position is that the Mavs have been obsessed with cap space since 2012 and that's been the case. They value cap space over trades for any player that is not a star. The KP trade was great and it leveraged the MBT's nuclear winter idea which actually panned out for this one unique circumstance.
The thing I was commenting on is that I would much rather have a Gordon-type even if they aren't a "star" rather than thinking hey we can sign somebody like that in 2021 with all this cap space. As we saw last offseason, we had cap space and Curry was the only asset we came away with. We shed Barnes for basically nothing when he could have been a potential asset on a 1 yr deal. That's my issue.
I think that's all reasonable, except maybe that the Harrison Barnes comments that have been floating around seem a little revisionist and based on hindsight.
The thing about 2021 cap space is that there are some differences with the team pre-offseason, some differences in this cap space opportunity, and some differnces in the team's current competitive timeline when compared to all those post 2011 plan powder teams.
This team has Luka, and Luka just had a season that included being a top 5 player in the league and being even better in the playoffs. Luka is the free agent draw. The plan powder teams never had anything close to that as a draw.
The possibility of teaming Luka with Giannis, combined with Luka as a draw for Giannis, or for a fall back free agent, makes the opportunity of this offseason more inviting than any of those other plan powder offseasons.
Lastly, and you may disagree with this, but the Mavs aren't quite in "win now" mode. They're more in "win now if we can, but the priority is to keep building this team" mode. This team's real championship window probably opens in 21/22.
So here's the deal. I hope the team does enough due diligence to know if a pursuit of Giannis is worth it. They obviously failed at that with Kemba. But the upside of landing Giannis, lure of Luka, and the team's timeline all suggest that the pursuit might be worth the gamble this time.
Agree with all this. I do think there’s moves we would make that cut into 2021 cap. Jrue and Gordon i don’t feel are available to us. There’s several teams that would give multiple firsts for them and that’s not available to us. It’s too early in our timeline to trade picks any farther into the future. I think the best way to describe our plans would be opportunistic. We would definitely sign DJJ for the same contract Seth got for instance. Moves in trade like that too for young guys with multiple years of control are on the table. It would be easy to make room for Giannis no matter what we do really. All our contracts are easy to trade and so would anyone we add.
(09-23-2020, 10:50 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The odds of expirings + no picks after draft night? netting another star player are almost zero. Most star players are moved for players of value + picks. I think MBT will do it anyway just because they like to keep their "powder dry." They just tend to think they can sign anybody they want with enough cap space.
To be fair, we've never really seen how they'll handle this, specific situation.
What we know is they decided they had a better chance of going from "no star, no future" to "ok, now we've got something to build around" by using cap space to attract a free agent than they did through the draft. They were very wrong about that, and tbh, even the players they targeted didn't turn out to be the right guys, so in a way they were fortunate to be unsuccessful.
But now, they have Doncic/Porzingis in place. That's the hardest part. Think back to the point when they first KNEW they were in a good situation with Nash/Dirk.
First of all, that realization didn't happen less than a year after acquiring them like it did this time around. It took quite a while for Dirk/Nash to show signs that they could be successful. This time around, Luka was a star from damn near day 1, and KP's progress was steady, once he started playing.
Second, think about the financial situation of the team by the time they figured out what they really had with Dirk/Nash. Don't you think they made some really, really dumb trades to take on bad money early on? Don't we think, if we're being honest, that those mistakes made things more difficult, not easier?
Like, take the Juwan Howard deal, for example: Decent player. He made them marginally better on the court, but they were still FAR from contending. Terrible contract for the time. That move, and others like it, resulted in a total lack of flexibility for non-trade roster building for years and years. Basically, all the meaningful years of Dirk's career.
Now, it's true that if you follow those bad contracts, you can see that they WERE successful more often than not moving them for other bad contracts, and in most cases, there were incremental increases in quality of the on court product with each move. But, Cuban has gone on record saying he had to lose $100 million to keep this approach moving forward. He used the words "embarrassed to admit it" when discussing that. People always say "he'll spend what it takes to win" and that's probably true, but I'm telling you, I don't believe he wants to spend like THAT again. Tax for a team that has realistic chance to win a title, maybe. Tax for a team making bad choices that result in moving from the 7th seed to the 5th seed and will probably lose in the 2nd round? That's duuuuuuumb, and irresponsible. I don't believe he wants anything to do with that anymore, and I don't blame him.
Plus, since the approach above is the only thing they could do during the Dirk era, that's all we've seen them demonstrate that they're able to do. The post-title free agency swings were clearly unsuccessful, but how could they not have been? Dirk was 97 years old, the team had no talent, and the only thing they had to offer is "Dallas is awesome, and we've got a great organization that's won a title recently." Now, I think the "Dallas isn't a free agent destination city" narrative is WAY overblown, personally. It's a great place to live, relative to Minnesota, Milwaukee, San Antonio, Sacramento, Indiana, etc. And, due to the time of year NBA games get played (in normal years, not pandemic years) the fact that it's a warm place probably puts it ahead of NY, Chicago and Philly for some people. But, if Dallas, as a city, is the BEST thing you have to offer, you are very likely going to lose out to teams in LA and Miami (for pretty much anyone) and those great east coast cities (for people who don't mind the cold).
Failing to understand the realities in the paragraph above was an unforgivable mistake. No doubt about it.
But now? They have the DARLING of the basketball world under contract. They are a playoff team who is clearly getting better for the foreseeable near future, with or without any single player they could hope to add. Again, Dallas can't be the selling point, but it's FAR from being a turnoff. This situation is undeniably attractive for any player who doesn't feel he needs to have the highest usage rate on his team to succeed. If you can play off the ball, and you want easy shots, you are looking at Dallas right now with envy. That's a fact. Does this mean they'll be successful in free agency? No, there's still risk involved. But, it's not the same ridiculous endeavor that it has been since 2011.
We never got to see them take a swing at free agency during the young Nash/Dirk era, so we don't know that the results of that wouldn't have been much better than what we got.
So I said all that to say this: the dumbest possible way to look at this is to try to decide whether they should put all their chips into trades or put them all into free agency, because both answers are wrong. They should be on the search for talented players who significantly improve their immediate and future chances of playing better basketball than other teams, period. The fact that they're in position to go EITHER way is a good thing, imo.
If a deal good enough to get you to where you want to go comes available, take it, even if it ruins the 2021 thing! If smaller deals come available that you think will improve your team but at the sacrifice of cap space, take them, but only if you can envision steps to undo that sacrifice if you need to. If all you see out there are deals that will only marginally improve your team while drastically limiting your flexibility moving forward, I think you pass. Doing something like that just to feel like you're taking action is DUUMMMMMB, and my opinion on that has nothing to do with Giannis.
Can you move a bad contract? Almost always, yes. I mean, the worst 5 contracts in the league are probably pretty immovable, but the next 20 worst ones are. But, you have to spend other assets (and maybe even worse: TIME) to accomplish this. The desire to avoid this situation is not 100% tied to "we think we can get Giannis." It's not binary. If we know they were prepared to spend their cap wad on Kemba Walker, then we also know that they're not experiencing tunnel vision aimed at 2021 and Giannis. It's on their radar, right where it should be, but not to their detriment, so far.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter HOW they build the roster, only how WELL they do it. I just think the more options they have, the easier it will be for them to find success.
(09-23-2020, 10:10 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]...how did KP fall in their laps?
You're kidding right? The very fact that most, if not all, teams in the league didn't know KP was available before he was traded isn't an indication of the unbelievable opportunity falling in their laps?
(09-23-2020, 11:13 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Is it possible they take a step back?
Or stay the same, and is that enough?
(09-23-2020, 11:42 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]You're kidding right? The very fact that most, if not all, teams in the league didn't know KP was available before he was traded isn't an indication of the unbelievable opportunity falling in their laps?
Maybe you and I are working with different definitions of "falling in their laps" in mind.
I think the Mavs did a lot of work to make that trade happen, and the fact that other teams didn't know KP was available is at least partially attributable to how the Mavs pounced. I think of "falling in their laps" as not having to do much and just getting lucky.
I think the Mavs stayed alert, did their homework, saw an opporunity, and worked smart and hard to grab the prize quickly. In my mind, that's not something "falling in their laps".
(09-23-2020, 11:42 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ] (09-23-2020, 10:10 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]...how did KP fall in their laps?
You're kidding right? The very fact that most, if not all, teams in the league didn't know KP was available before he was traded isn't an indication of the unbelievable opportunity falling in their laps?
That's an indication the Mavs were digging and preparing.
(09-23-2020, 11:47 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ] (09-23-2020, 11:42 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]You're kidding right? The very fact that most, if not all, teams in the league didn't know KP was available before he was traded isn't an indication of the unbelievable opportunity falling in their laps?
Maybe you and I are working with different definitions of "falling in their laps" in mind.
I think the Mavs did a lot of work to make that trade happen, and the fact that other teams didn't know KP was available is at least partially attributable to how the Mavs pounced. I think of "falling in their laps" as not having to do much and just getting lucky.
I think the Mavs stayed alert, did their homework, saw an opporunity, and worked smart and hard to grab the prize quickly. In my mind, that's not something "falling in their laps".
I think you're both right. There was some luck involved, no question about that, but it's also clear that there had been discussions between the teams about KP for quite a while, dating back to the rumors about Phil Jackson wanting to deal him, probably.
I think to suggest it's all luck sells the Mavs short, but I think there's an element of luck involved with any great deal that any team makes. The Mavs were lucky more teams didn't see Dirk's Nike Hoops Summit Game (or whatever it was), but that doesn't change the fact they correctly identified him as someone worth drafting that highly.
Luck is good. I will take it, and I hope more of it is coming.
(09-23-2020, 11:47 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I think the Mavs stayed alert, did their homework, saw an opporunity, and worked smart and hard to grab the prize quickly. In my mind, that's not something "falling in their laps".
I don't disagree that they put in work to make the opportunity presented happen, and they did pounce as hard as they could to make sure no one else got a shot at beating their offer (the Mark Cuban, Shark Tank special) as any other team would do in that instance, but the opportunity itself fell into their laps.
(09-23-2020, 11:55 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]...but I think there's an element of luck involved with any great deal that any team makes. The Mavs were lucky more teams didn't see Dirk's Nike Hoops Summit Game (or whatever it was), but that doesn't change the fact they correctly identified him as someone worth drafting that highly.
Luck is good. I will take it, and I hope more of it is coming.
True, Thanks Kings and Hawks.
(09-23-2020, 12:00 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]...as any other team would do in that instance, but the opportunity itself fell into their laps
It's probably silly for me to keep this going, but...
" as any other team would do in that instance"
The Mavs put themselves in position. No other team, in fact, did.
Do you think the Knicks called the Mavs out of the blue and offered KP to them?
The fact that any deal in sports requires some bit of luck means that you could be dismissive about any deal that's ever been accomplished by any team. So what's the point?
(09-23-2020, 11:13 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (09-23-2020, 10:44 AM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]With no 2019 cap space there was never gonna be KP in Mavs jersey.
And why is that? I don't understand
(09-23-2020, 11:02 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Giannis
This makes me irritated Giannis chances are so low, that it is just silly to build the strategy on 2021 cap space. Build best team possible and forget cap space problem. If he actually wants to come, clear cap space for as much as it will be missing.
Important part of being an attractive destination for Giannis is also showing a clear step forward from this season. Can we really be sure that is possible without serious reinforcements? Curry, Maxi, DFS, THJ, Luka all had career years. How much better can they be? Is it possible they take a step back? West will be absolutely brutal next year so it is possible for Mavs to miss the playoffs. Will they still be (so) attractive for Giannis as you think they are now?
Not so sure of your playoff picture assessment for next year. Looking at the Southwest division I see Houston being a year older and worse. San Antonio was a near playoff team and is about to enter a rebuild. I’m not scared of an improved Memphis or New Orleans.
Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz will be good with largely the same team as this year. Warriors will be back
Clippers will be very limited and reports are they will let Harrell walk. Who knows what happens with them. OKC likely rebuilding for real this offseason. Minnesota and Sacramento won’t amount to anything. The only real west team i see as possibly taking the next step is Phoenix, but thankfully we now have playoff experience and they do not.
We will be a top 4 seed next year barring a major Luka injury. It’s the East that has all the cap space. NYK, Miami, Detroit, Charlotte, Atlanta have all the space. I think we see a more even dispersal of talent than we’ve seen in awhile
@"Jason Terry" I don't know if I'm ready to pencil them in as a top 4 seed, but I'll DEFINITELY co-sign the idea that they're going to make the playoffs again.
You're absolutely right about Phoenix being the only team behind them that's scary, and there are for sure some teams ahead of them who will be worse next year. OKC for sure, probably Houston, I'd put Utah on the list, even.
Call me a homer, but I think the Mavs will find a way to better the roster for next season. Also, I think the Mavs will be better next year because, year two of the dynamic duo.