(09-11-2020, 02:58 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]To add to that 2020 strategy. Jrue is most likely out of reach for Wright/Jackson core and picks. But players like:
Sato, OPJ, Young, Osman, Rose, Kennard, J.Johnson, Schroeder, Richardson, Oubre and White are possible. Each of them makes our team better than Wright/Jackson in theory. Bunch of interesting MLE targets like Dunn, DJJ, Crowder, Millsap, perhaps Grant or Wood are also available. If we can pull one guy from the trade group and one from MLE group this team is considerably better imho. Or we just draft a rookie, if we really like someone, sign someone for MLE and try to switch Wright for someone like Snell, who would fit better
While I love to draft someone I still doubt the MBT on that front.
I'm hoping we can ditch Wright + 31 for someone that can contribute consistently.
We do have some assets in our picks, Curry, Brunson, Maxi, DFS and dare I say THJ. I think Curry and Brunson are probably are most attractive trade pieces but maybe that partly because I'm selfish and want to retain Maxi and DFS as I think they'll continue to improve. I know Maxi struggled with his shot during the playoffs, but I think his problem is similar to Luak's at the line in that they exert so much energy elsewhere that those percentages suffer because of it.
(09-11-2020, 02:34 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (09-11-2020, 01:58 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]AD,Lebron, Kawhi,PG, Oladipo,Derozen,Gobert,Adams and may be even Jrue will be free agents in 2021 most likely.
AD, LeBron, Kawhi and PG most likely WON'T be free agents in 2021. Gobert is a bad fit and Adams is a dinosaur far from a max player. DeRozan is far from max player too. This leaves you with Oladipo and all the doubts if he really is a max player. Jrue will most likely be traded this season (and then resigned) or he stays put.
2nd tier guys we can easily sign, even if we add full MLE this season and change Wright+Jackson for someone that has 2021 salary left on his contract.
Conclusion again - having 2021 flexibility as number 1 strategy is not smart. Number 1 strategy should be improve as much as possible this season while keeping the core.
-Derozen (and other names) are guys we can add with another player, may be our own THJ.
-AD,Kawhi, Lebron and PG are almost certain to be FA, whether they change teams are another question. Cap situation "might"change things if it decreased significantly that they lose ton of money if they don't opt in. Otherwise they need to fire agents if they are not free agents in 2021.
-2nd tier guys won't come for MLE, so you still need to keep cap space. Now, if we are talking about taking MLE from it, that is ok. But ton of proposed trades will make us with zero cap space in 2021. And basically shooting ourselves in the foot if some of those names were ready to play here.
-Just because 2021 strategy is criticizable (it surely is) doesn't mean other option is automatically good. Especially when other option are based on teams willing to give us players we like for package we want to give. You don't present any case for "let's improve our team". As I said most of it are pure fantasy or trades that could affect what we are trying to build and could backfire badly.
-And I don't doubt the Mavs will take a no brainer deal. Mavs wanted to be huge player in 2019 with 2 Max contracts, until KP was available. I doubt there will be any deal that will improve us significantly.
-Conclusion until there is a realistic trade that can significantly improves the team is on the table, then preserving 2021 flexibility is undeniably the better option.Going for short term improvements or going YOLO with trades to change half of the team is far from smart.
2my opinion is 21' isn't about just Giannis. Theres a huge amount of quality players. We shouldnt go all out on trades and chase these players like jrue. That will leverage our future. We need to keep getting these value contracts and put ourselves in a position for 21 or other opportune trades
(09-11-2020, 03:18 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]2nd tier guys won't come for MLE, so you still need to keep cap space. Now, if we are talking about taking MLE from it, that is ok. But ton of proposed trades will make us with zero cap space in 2021. And basically shooting ourselves in the foot if some of those names were ready to play here.
Please elaborate with numbers. We have THJ and Bobi coming of the books in 2021 (assuming we trade JJ), thats over 20 mil. Plus more than half of the guys I listed as possible expire in 2021. So even if you add 10 mil MLE guy, you still have 20 mil of cap space in 2021.
(09-11-2020, 03:18 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]You don't present any case for "let's improve our team".
Excuse me? You don't think guys I listed are gettable for Wright/Jackson and picks? You don't think guys I listed improve our team? I don't really understand what you are reffering to. I think we can agree Wright and Jackson have no value on this team and I don't really understand how trading them would kill our chemistry.
(09-11-2020, 03:29 PM)LukaDrive Wrote: [ -> ]2my opinion is 21' isn't about just Giannis. Theres a huge amount of quality players. We shouldnt go all out on trades and chase these players like jrue. That will leverage our future. We need to keep getting these value contracts and put ourselves in a position for 21 or other opportune trades
I think you certainly could. You would have to weight whatever deal you could make now against what could be there in 2021. I think Jrue is on a tier higher than most of what you could get in 2021.
Do you have specific names you are looking at? Most of the UFAs are older or flawed or not going anywhere. There are a bunch of RFAs, not sure which ones are good enough to be obtainable but not good enough for their team to match offers. There are usually a few that you can overpay for but then do we want to do that? I am just not in love with the available players in 2021 enough to sit on our hands for a whole year.
I think I know the answer to this but would you do CP3 for opted-in THJ, Powell & Wright (post-Giannis supermax)? CP3 only has 2 years left. This years salary is sort of meaningless in that you already would be over the cap. You would be out of 2021 FA but CP3 would be a large expiring. If he isn't panning out you could buy him out and still have the MLE to use. Also instead of a direct buy-out you might end up trading him to a team with say 2 large expirings that then you flip for other things.
I was against CP3 last year bc of fit with Luka and I would still have concerns ab CP3 not trying to out-alpha Luka on the court. Luka is obviously a similar player to Harden so you would have to wonder if their styles would work well together.
The big thing for me would be if I got to dump 2 contracts out of the deal in Wright and more importantly Powell. You would actually get space back in 2022. Also Wright and Powell make up almost 20 mil in 2021 so you aren paying CP3 net 23 mil when you consider the sunk cost of Wright + Powell's money. I have been adamant that Powell is not movable but CP3's salary is so big it might be possible.
I think OKC could get a better deal from the Bucks as Bledsoe is a better return I think that Wright or Powell. The cap savings for OKC would be about the same. The Bucks would give up I am sure at least one pick, the Mavs might be willing to part with one. Anyways it's interesting just bc CP3's massive deal is now only a 2-yr deal and he is still an effective player.
Bucks should be the favorite for CP3. Sixers might rather have CP3 than Harris and I still think Harris has value for some team out there, even if the team that would want Harris only gives back expiring contracts. For example the Knicks would probably just take Harris for cap space as they are desperate for talent. This time last year I would have not thought it would be possible for OKC to dump CP3 but I actually think they will have several options which will actually yield them some kind of asset, probably at least a pick.
I have too much respect for CP3 to say he wouldn’t make the Mavs better. I can envision many positives with his addition. But, I can’t say that I would be very excited about that. I mean, I definitely wouldn’t hate it, but I’m hoping for something a little better. Something more appropriate to their timeline.
(09-11-2020, 02:19 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So the Lee thing has been mentioned and sounds interesting on it's face. Have we see a S&T like that in the current CBA? I don't recall whether we have seen a "filler" based S&T. If we did do something like that it would make more sense why the Mavs kept Lee and his big cap hold to begin with.
I thought I answered this once, but maybe not. This kind of thing (non-guaranteed years after the first one) is positively mentioned in the section of the FAQ on S&T. Nothing sinister here. You are taking a FA with Bird rights and signing and trading him. There is a 3 year contract requirement, but only the first one has to be guaranteed.
(09-11-2020, 02:19 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So evidently THJ can't be paired with picks anyways so that's a moot point.
I didn't say "can't", but I do think it will be very tricky. There really isn't an incentive for THJ to decide his option until after the draft. If he does, he's subject to being traded without any control over his destination. Dallas can't really draft someone for another team on the hope THJ opts in a few days later either. Could Dallas draft someone, then wait for THJ to opt in and then trade both? Yes. Does that feel likely? Not really.
(09-11-2020, 04:04 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]CP3 for opted-in THJ, Powell & Wright (post-Giannis supermax)
Even if Mavs would, OKC wouldn't for this package. Add picks and they might consider. I doubt CP3 and MLE makes us a contender and there are too many injury risks involved, so I would pass.
(09-11-2020, 12:51 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (09-11-2020, 12:36 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Jrue
He is probably best possible fit next to Luka. Add another strong wing defender who can hit an open three and we become contender number one imho.
The question about Jrue is how much competition can offer. There are several teams who feel they are one move away. Just a couple of examples:
Brooklyn can easily make a far more compelling offer aroundd LeVert, some young players (Kurucs) and picks. Dallas can't even come close to that with all picks.
Denver would most likely not want to include MPJ, but they have all picks but 2020 available for trade.
Miami has cap space, young players, 2020 and 2022 picks.
Unfortunately, I don't think an offer of Wright, Jackson and a couple of mediocre picks would be competitive. Even if you add Kleber or Curry. I am affraid Jrue is too big of a target.
Sadly, you are probably right.
I do think there are plenty of targets one tier down that some combination of assets can attract. You've done a good job in other posts debunking the wonderfulness of the 21 FA class as either unrealistic (Davis, Kawhi, Lebron), bad fits or nothing better than what you
might get in trade in 2020.
The purpose of my post this morning wasn't to be a Plan Powder hater (not directed at you). I've said there are three legitimate paths. Plan Powder, Plan Go For It Now and Plan Have It Both Ways. I don't believe any is inherently good or bad. We don't have enough information to judge really. If you knew
this trade was available in 2020 or
that FA would definitely sign here in 2021, then you could make a rational evaluation. I do think it fair to point out that a Max FA in 21 probably costs THJ, or some other member of the beloved bench core (you can't just waive a magic wand and make players you don't like go away), the MLE in 2020 and any 2020 trade that includes taking on longer term money. That is a lot.
(09-11-2020, 04:33 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (09-11-2020, 04:04 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]CP3 for opted-in THJ, Powell & Wright (post-Giannis supermax)
Even if Mavs would, OKC wouldn't for this package. Add picks and they might consider. I doubt CP3 and MLE makes us a contender and there are too many injury risks involved, so I would pass.
Pretty much my thoughts as I don't see why OKC would do that deal. I think what he did with OKC and his health, he's certainly boosted his current trade value. I'd also have to wonder what the last year of CP3's deal is worth as an expiring. $44 million...
Regarding THJ, I don't think it's absurd to think he'll opt out. I guess it depends if any of the teams with money to burn are attractive to him. I do think that would be a mistake for him, as Dallas seems to be a good fit for him.
(09-11-2020, 02:19 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Grant would be amazing. I can't see any reason why he wouldn't opt out of his current contract as it should be easy for him to resign for more with the Nuggets or another team. The issue for me is why would Denver who gave up a 1st round pick not simply resign him to a long-term deal that is above MLE?
You've identified the one "control" Denver has...going above the MLE. The price Denver paid to get Grant is really immaterial short of that because they don't control him. He's probably destined to come off the bench with the emergence of Porter. Would he prefer to start here vs. come off the bench in Denver if both teams offer MLE money? You are absolutely right that he takes $12mm to come off the Denver bench vs. $10mm to start here.
Denver has Millsap, Craig, Plumlee and Grant all free this summer. Grant was probably brought in to eventually take over for Millsap. That would indicate he's in their plans (and Millsap is available to us). But, did they anticipate Porter? Could they find a backup PF cheaper than $12mm? Probably. Denver gave Plumlee 3/$41 last time he was a FA. Do they pay two back up bigs over the MLE? What about backup PG? Denver doesn't have money issues right now, but pay Plumlee and Grant above the MLE, keep Craig at a reasonable (DFS-like) number and sign a backup PG using some/all of the MLE and they are at/above the tax line. I think you pay tax if you are the third best team in the west, but I don't know Denver's financial situation post-Covid.
Too bad Millsap will be or near 36yo when next season starts.
No way Brooklyn trades Levert for Jrue. Maybe a Dinwiddie package.
(09-11-2020, 05:08 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Too bad Millsap will be or near 36yo when next season starts.
Yeah, but doesn't that make him a good one year MLE guarantee guy as a stop gap to get to 2021?
Denver's O was 3.4 pp100 better when he was on the floor. Their D was 7.9 pp100 better. Combined that is 11.3. His Net Rating was best on the team this season and last. I'd start him for a year here if I were trying to facilitate Plan Have it Both Ways.
(09-11-2020, 05:18 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ] (09-11-2020, 05:08 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Too bad Millsap will be or near 36yo when next season starts.
Yeah, but doesn't that make him a good one year MLE guarantee guy as a stop gap to get to 2021?
Denver's O was 3.4 pp100 better when he was on the floor. Their D was 7.9 pp100 better. Combined that is 11.3. His Net Rating was best on the team this season and last. I'd start him for a year here if I were trying to facilitate Plan Have it Both Ways.
I'm just salty the Mavericks weren't smart enough to pull the trigger for him when Utah ditched him in favor of Favors and he ended up in Atlanta on a sweetheart deal.
I love Paul and have always wanted him here.
(09-11-2020, 03:35 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (09-11-2020, 03:18 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]2nd tier guys won't come for MLE, so you still need to keep cap space. Now, if we are talking about taking MLE from it, that is ok. But ton of proposed trades will make us with zero cap space in 2021. And basically shooting ourselves in the foot if some of those names were ready to play here.
Please elaborate with numbers. We have THJ and Bobi coming of the books in 2021 (assuming we trade JJ), thats over 20 mil. Plus more than half of the guys I listed as possible expire in 2021. So even if you add 10 mil MLE guy, you still have 20 mil of cap space in 2021.
(09-11-2020, 03:18 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]You don't present any case for "let's improve our team".
Excuse me? You don't think guys I listed are gettable for Wright/Jackson and picks? You don't think guys I listed improve our team? I don't really understand what you are reffering to. I think we can agree Wright and Jackson have no value on this team and I don't really understand how trading them would kill our chemistry.
-Let me stat this in more clear way: I am not against spending MLE in 2020. If we keep a room for flexibilty in 2021 I have no problem with it.
We trade our expirings for long term contracts? That is a big no for me.
-I didn't refer to your trades specifically, I replied first at
DanSchwartzman post.
I am all for trading Wright and Jackson too. Specially
Wright since he neither fit win now or win later.
(09-11-2020, 05:06 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Denver has Millsap, Craig, Plumlee and Grant all free this summer. Grant was probably brought in to eventually take over for Millsap. That would indicate he's in their plans (and Millsap is available to us). But, did they anticipate Porter? Could they find a backup PF cheaper than $12mm? Probably. Denver gave Plumlee 3/$41 last time he was a FA. Do they pay two back up bigs over the MLE? What about backup PG? Denver doesn't have money issues right now, but pay Plumlee and Grant above the MLE, keep Craig at a reasonable (DFS-like) number and sign a backup PG using some/all of the MLE and they are at/above the tax line. I think you pay tax if you are the third best team in the west, but I don't know Denver's financial situation post-Covid.
I don't know much ab Craig but Plumlee would certainly be lower priority than Grant. Mil;sap probably as well but I could see him coming back on a very team-friendly deal. The price they gave to get Grant is not immaterial at all including the fact that they gave up a pick literally just last summer. That shows they valued Grant and I would anticipate him starting into the future even if there is a logjam with him, Porter and Millsap. Millsap is a 36 yr-old FA so they would have to lock up Grant before worrying ab PM. If Mavs traded a first for a player only to let him walk the next year we would lose our shit. I can't see a scenario where Nuggets let themselves get outbid.
Mavs only have MLE to offer and there would be several teams imo who would be willing to give that for a 3D 26-yr old starting forward. If the Mavs could offer a future first rounder to Denver to agree to a S&T maybe they would entertain that idea? That would be the only angle I could see if Denver sees Grant's price tag going too high maybe they consider such an idea.
(09-11-2020, 05:18 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ] (09-11-2020, 05:08 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Too bad Millsap will be or near 36yo when next season starts.
Yeah, but doesn't that make him a good one year MLE guarantee guy as a stop gap to get to 2021?
Denver's O was 3.4 pp100 better when he was on the floor. Their D was 7.9 pp100 better. Combined that is 11.3. His Net Rating was best on the team this season and last. I'd start him for a year here if I were trying to facilitate Plan Have it Both Ways.
@"DanSchwartzman" can you or someone else remind me if you can do 1 yr contracts with MLE? I thought maybe there was a minimum amount of years you had to do on those. I would definitely be interested in a 1 yr Paul Millsap deal.
(09-11-2020, 04:33 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (09-11-2020, 04:04 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]CP3 for opted-in THJ, Powell & Wright (post-Giannis supermax)
Even if Mavs would, OKC wouldn't for this package. Add picks and they might consider. I doubt CP3 and MLE makes us a contender and there are too many injury risks involved, so I would pass.
I don't think OKC would go for it either altho in a hypothetical situation I would do it absent picks. If it required 1 pick I might consider. It just depends on how high or low the MBT is on the current CP3. My guess is that they aren't real high, especially considering his age and temperament. In my view they would like to assemble a team of 20-somethings that can compete for multiple years.
I miss the old days when Donnie would get a lot done with trades. I think you will see guys this year get moved that ppl said last year were untradable. Players with talent are tradable even if they are overpaid bc there is just not enough talent to go around and there are too many dollars to spend.
(09-11-2020, 04:04 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I think I know the answer to this but would you do CP3 for opted-in THJ, Powell & Wright (post-Giannis supermax)?
Interesting question. Would you opt out of a guaranteed 44M player option and sign a one year $10M, if that meant the Mavs can sign Giannis in 2021. How much is being the title favourite worth to CP3?
As for the CP3 (post Giannis) trade question: I think a lot will depend on what the players do due to COVID. What if team roll over their 2021 capspace and some of the super 2021 ®FA class actually do sign one year deals, cause they expect some (hopefully post covid) cap spike in 2022.