You make some good points, Kamm. Lots of good and reasonable doubt.
1) I definitely don't see an outlier season. I see a player finally fitting into a role that he's qualified to play on offense.
2) As far as OPJ, how does the volume compare? Remember, I'm basing this argument on the "only kids this tall are allowed on the ride" concept. You might not agree, but I believe whole heartedly that it is DIFFICULT to put 500 3's up in today's league.
3) I can meet you halfway on this one. It's a good point, and why I feel the way I do about #1. But, I don't think they're exactly thrilled to let THJ shoot, either, and again, he's getting them off. You seem to be applying the logic from Luka/KP/Seth to THJ, but NOT the other way around. I'm not sure I can go all the way with you on that one.
4) OK. I can easily buy that OPJ is a better defender just by taking your word for it. I do wonder what the follow up would be though, as OPJ wouldn't technically replace THJ in the lineup.
(09-21-2020, 04:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 04:03 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]There really are only a handful of shooters in the game who are good enough to shoot a high volume of 3's at an elite percentage. THJ is one of them. Curry, for example, is amazing by percentage alone, but he just can't seem to get as many shots off as you'd like.
Some thoughts:
1) THJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was 7% better (!!!!) than the rest of his career and 5% better (!!!) than his career best. He is basically a career 35% catch and shoot 3PT% guy who suddenly jumped to 42%. Is that sustainable? Many of us are concerned it is an outlier.
2) OPJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was the same as THJ's and that was OPJ's worst year in the last four. OPJ has been averaging almost 45% (!) on catch and shoot threes over the last four years. He has a proven track record of being a rock steady catch and shoot three guy.
3) Seth's volume is lower because his release is a little bit slower, BUT I think teams picked their poison against the Mavs and always tried to prioritize taking away Seth's shot (as they should). They dared THJ to shoot since he was only a career 35% catch and shoot three guy....and good on THJ that he stepped up. 48% (!) of all of THJ's shots were open or WIDE open three attempts. Dude got a stupid amount of good looks this year thanks to the spacing of Luka/KP/Seth.
4) I am firmly in the camp that THJ's defense is a big issue on this team and needs to be upgraded. I think OPJ for one does that.
Kamm, this post is so beautiful it brought a tear to my eye. I hope someone in the MBT sees this. As for #4, pleased to be in the trenches with you.
(09-21-2020, 04:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 04:03 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]There really are only a handful of shooters in the game who are good enough to shoot a high volume of 3's at an elite percentage. THJ is one of them. Curry, for example, is amazing by percentage alone, but he just can't seem to get as many shots off as you'd like.
Some thoughts:
1) THJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was 7% better (!!!!) than the rest of his career and 5% better (!!!) than his career best. He is basically a career 35% catch and shoot 3PT% guy who suddenly jumped to 42%. Is that sustainable? Many of us are concerned it is an outlier.
2) OPJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was the same as THJ's and that was OPJ's worst year in the last four. OPJ has been averaging almost 45% (!) on catch and shoot threes over the last four years. He has a proven track record of being a rock steady catch and shoot three guy.
3) Seth's volume is lower because his release is a little bit slower, BUT I think teams picked their poison against the Mavs and always tried to prioritize taking away Seth's shot (as they should). They dared THJ to shoot since he was only a career 35% catch and shoot three guy....and good on THJ that he stepped up. 48% (!) of all of THJ's shots were open or WIDE open three attempts. Dude got a stupid amount of good looks this year thanks to the spacing of Luka/KP/Seth.
4) I am firmly in the camp that THJ's defense is a big issue on this team and needs to be upgraded. I think OPJ for one does that.
What Hardaway has going for him is he has already proven he can do it with Luka. The whole bird in the hand thing. They’ve been through a playoff series together. Hardaway is better because he finally has a coach and Luka is an excellent passer. Timing is big in shooting. They’ve had time to develop chemistry. OPj has been shooting meaningless 3’s in meaningless games. This doesn’t always translate to new teams. The move would be too close to a lateral move. It’s not worth the risk
That’s how a trash team like Houston is formed. Look only at the stats and don’t take into consideration other factors. Seems like LAC has that same disease
(09-21-2020, 04:31 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]4) OK. I can easily buy that OPJ, is a better defender, just by taking your word for it. I do wonder what the follow up would be though, as OPJ wouldn't technically replace THJ in the lineup.
Of course Luka and KP are the cornerstones of the starting lineup. THJ and DSJ were the other two mainstays, with Powell, Curry, and an occasional Maxi being the others. I would be in the camp (thanks Kamm) that the Mavs' greatest need is that Jrue Holiday-type guy who doesn't need the ball but can do some catch-and-shoot, take some pressure off Luka, play defense, and quarterback when he's out. The second-greatest need (which almost everyone else would say is the greatest need) is a starting-quality three-and-D wing with enough length and size to be the practical four in the Mavs' small ball model. If you get those two players somehow, then DSJ continues to start, unless you can also get someone like Millsap on the very cheap and bring him off the bench.
I would love THJ to remain on the Mavs 1) coming off the bench in a Curry-like role, where I agree he would be arguably better than Curry, and 2) if we didn't have needs (like Giannis, heh) that his future money (ideally, $9-$10 mil per in his new deal) was taking up.
(09-21-2020, 04:31 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]how does the volume compare?
OPJ has never shot at the volume of THJ. OPJ this year was 6.7 3PA/36 mins. THJ was 8.8 and has been 7.6 for his career.
THJ has always been a high volume "chucker" and that is what got him driven out of town in NYK. Because before this year he was doing it at an average below 35% (and about 35% on catch and shoot).
It was GREAT for the Mavs to have THJ shoot 8.8 3PA/36 mins at about 40% this year. But last year (18-19) it was BAD that THJ shot 9.0 3PA/36 mins at 32% (!!!) with the Mavs.
If THJ keeps this up he is a positive for this team (+3.3 on/off this year), but if he reverts then he is a negative (-3.5 on/off the year before). THJ is not a two-way player and THAT is what the Mavs need. THJ only has value if he can reproduce the shooting of this year. And to me, that is a BIG question mark. BIG.
(09-21-2020, 04:40 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]OPj has been shooting meaningless 3’s in meaningless games.
Except OPJ has played in 36 playoff games in his career and THJ in 21.... albeit that OPJ hasn't been in the last two years.
(09-21-2020, 04:40 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 04:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 04:03 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]There really are only a handful of shooters in the game who are good enough to shoot a high volume of 3's at an elite percentage. THJ is one of them. Curry, for example, is amazing by percentage alone, but he just can't seem to get as many shots off as you'd like.
Some thoughts:
1) THJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was 7% better (!!!!) than the rest of his career and 5% better (!!!) than his career best. He is basically a career 35% catch and shoot 3PT% guy who suddenly jumped to 42%. Is that sustainable? Many of us are concerned it is an outlier.
2) OPJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was the same as THJ's and that was OPJ's worst year in the last four. OPJ has been averaging almost 45% (!) on catch and shoot threes over the last four years. He has a proven track record of being a rock steady catch and shoot three guy.
3) Seth's volume is lower because his release is a little bit slower, BUT I think teams picked their poison against the Mavs and always tried to prioritize taking away Seth's shot (as they should). They dared THJ to shoot since he was only a career 35% catch and shoot three guy....and good on THJ that he stepped up. 48% (!) of all of THJ's shots were open or WIDE open three attempts. Dude got a stupid amount of good looks this year thanks to the spacing of Luka/KP/Seth.
4) I am firmly in the camp that THJ's defense is a big issue on this team and needs to be upgraded. I think OPJ for one does that.
What Hardaway has going for him is he has already proven he can do it with Luka. The whole bird in the hand thing. They’ve been through a playoff series together. Hardaway is better because he finally has a coach and Luka is an excellent passer. Timing is big in shooting. They’ve had time to develop chemistry. OPj has been shooting meaningless 3’s in meaningless games. This doesn’t always translate to new teams. The move would be too close to a lateral move. It’s not worth the risk
That’s how a trash team like Houston is formed. Look only at the stats and don’t take into consideration other factors. Seems like LAC has that same disease
JET, I know you bothered LeBron in the Finals (thanks again for all you did for us!), but you otherwise weren't known for defense in your time with the Mavs. I would respectfully submit that might be coloring your opinions now. THJ is a major defensive problem in the starting lineup next to Luka. Do you think he can fix this, or do believe that Luka is going to advance so much defensively as to not make it a big deal?
(09-21-2020, 04:44 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]OPJ has never shot at the volume of THJ. OPJ this year was 6.7 3PA/36 mins. THJ was 8.8 and has been 7.6 for his career.
THJ has always been a high volume "chucker" and that is what got him driven out of town in NYK. Because before this year he was doing it at an average below 35% (and about 35% on catch and shoot).
It was GREAT for the Mavs to have THJ shoot 8.8 3PA/36 mins at about 40% this year. But last year (18-19) it was BAD that THJ shot 9.0 3PA/36 mins at 32% (!!!) with the Mavs.
If THJ keeps this up he is a positive for this team (+3.3 on/off this year), but if he reverts then he is a negative (-3.5 on/off the year before). THJ is not a two-way player and THAT is what the Mavs need. THJ only has value if he can reproduce the shooting of this year. And to me, that is a BIG question mark. BIG.
THj was by far the most disappointing performer on a Mavs jersey on against the Clownppers. 42% FG, 35% 3-PT, 0 defense/effort. Our less reliable shooter in the series (giving Maxi a pass because of the defense he had to play).
"If THJ keeps this up he is a positive for this team (+3.3 on/off this year), but if he reverts then he is a negative (-3.5 on/off the year before). THJ is not a two-way player and THAT is what the Mavs need. THJ only has value if he can reproduce the shooting of this year. And to me, that is a BIG question mark. BIG."
I agree with the above, Kamm.
I guess where we differ is that I just have more respect for his willingness and ability to get those shots up. Gonna keep saying it, because I believe it: easier said than done.
And when you call him a "chucker" there's a pejorative connotation there that I'm not sure I agree with. I think both NY and DAL needed and wanted him to shoot those shots. Yes, of course, the function of those shots is much different in an offense run through Luka and KP than it was in NY, where he was often the 1st option, and yes of course, this had a positive influence on the percentages. I think we agree on that. I just want to make sure you're not suggesting that he's out there going rogue.
At the end of the day, in order to win, SOMEONE has to shoot when open. This year, the first one in a while when the Mavs were any good, THJ did, and really well. All I'm saying is that I think that is (or WAS, if it makes you feel better) more valuable than many around here think.
I had no idea he, specifically, was such a negative on defense in that playoff series until you shared that +/- the other day, and I'm not trying to argue that at all. They definitely need to improve the defense.
(09-21-2020, 04:58 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]And when you call him a "chucker" there's a pejorative connotation there that I'm not sure I agree with.
I put that word in quotes, because that was his reputation. He put up an INSANE amount of shots everywhere he has gone (especially threes), but never did it at a high percentage. If you shoot a lot at an average or lower percent you get labeled a "chucker."
THJ was NOT a "chucker" this year, but I guarantee, if his three % slips back to his career average you will start seeing that label on him A LOT.
(09-21-2020, 05:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 04:58 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]And when you call him a "chucker" there's a pejorative connotation there that I'm not sure I agree with.
I put that word in quotes, because that was his reputation. He put up an INSANE amount of shots everywhere he has gone (especially threes), but never did it at a high percentage. If you shoot a lot at an average or lower percent you get labeled a "chucker."
THJ was NOT a "chucker" this year, but I guarantee, if his three % slips back to his career average you will start seeing that label on him A LOT.
No, I get it.
But hopefully, you agree with me that it was NY's mistake, not the player's, to give him that huge contract, and that the burden of having to score (or attempt to score) at that rate absolutely came with it.
I mean, we can't blame the guy for accepting a promotion and doing his best. He just wasn't nearly good enough to handle it, especially on that talentless team. What was he supposed to do, turn the money and role down? Kind of similar to Barnes on the Mavs, no?
This year, totally different story. Now, it seems like he's an important piece in an offense that works. Seems like you're almost expecting him to regress next season, and if he's here, I don't think I do. If he's somewhere else where he's less of a fit, maybe. I will absolutely agree that if he does regress, you've missed a golden opportunity to sell high.
(09-21-2020, 05:12 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Seems like you're almost expecting him to regress next season
My general rule of thumb is that I do not believe a "new leaf" has been turned over until I see two seasons of it.
We have seen ONE good season of THJ. I will be skeptical until he does it again. But if he does it next year I will believe he has made a lasting change.
There are just too many examples of one year outliers in guys' careers.
(09-21-2020, 05:12 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]you've missed a golden opportunity to sell high.
That's my fear. My gut says sell high on THJ now. But it is very possible that I am dead wrong. Who knows, time will tell.
(09-21-2020, 04:48 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 04:40 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 04:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 04:03 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]There really are only a handful of shooters in the game who are good enough to shoot a high volume of 3's at an elite percentage. THJ is one of them. Curry, for example, is amazing by percentage alone, but he just can't seem to get as many shots off as you'd like.
Some thoughts:
1) THJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was 7% better (!!!!) than the rest of his career and 5% better (!!!) than his career best. He is basically a career 35% catch and shoot 3PT% guy who suddenly jumped to 42%. Is that sustainable? Many of us are concerned it is an outlier.
2) OPJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was the same as THJ's and that was OPJ's worst year in the last four. OPJ has been averaging almost 45% (!) on catch and shoot threes over the last four years. He has a proven track record of being a rock steady catch and shoot three guy.
3) Seth's volume is lower because his release is a little bit slower, BUT I think teams picked their poison against the Mavs and always tried to prioritize taking away Seth's shot (as they should). They dared THJ to shoot since he was only a career 35% catch and shoot three guy....and good on THJ that he stepped up. 48% (!) of all of THJ's shots were open or WIDE open three attempts. Dude got a stupid amount of good looks this year thanks to the spacing of Luka/KP/Seth.
4) I am firmly in the camp that THJ's defense is a big issue on this team and needs to be upgraded. I think OPJ for one does that.
What Hardaway has going for him is he has already proven he can do it with Luka. The whole bird in the hand thing. They’ve been through a playoff series together. Hardaway is better because he finally has a coach and Luka is an excellent passer. Timing is big in shooting. They’ve had time to develop chemistry. OPj has been shooting meaningless 3’s in meaningless games. This doesn’t always translate to new teams. The move would be too close to a lateral move. It’s not worth the risk
That’s how a trash team like Houston is formed. Look only at the stats and don’t take into consideration other factors. Seems like LAC has that same disease
JET, I know you bothered LeBron in the Finals (thanks again for all you did for us!), but you otherwise weren't known for defense in your time with the Mavs. I would respectfully submit that might be coloring your opinions now. THJ is a major defensive problem in the starting lineup next to Luka. Do you think he can fix this, or do believe that Luka is going to advance so much defensively as to not make it a big deal?
I believe that Luka has been the weakest defensive player in our starting lineup(not counting rebounding, just pure defense). I think Luka will improve to average next season while also working on his shot all offseason.
Its KP that’s most important to our defense. He was so impressive defensively as a rim protector that we have zero chance if he goes down with injury.
Yes we need a perimeter defender preferably a wing. 6’7” athlete DFS clone. This alone would make a big difference and there’s minutes available there
Maybe also add a defense first guard like Frank Ntilikana to match up with guys like Lillard.
Then throw in someone maybe even vet min or WCS or Baynes ends up being the guy. But a D first big with some toughness and rebounding.
I don’t think THj was that bad. He was asked to do more than he’s ever done in his career. Rick can turn anyone to a team defender if they bring the effort. Haven’t seen any indication that THj isn’t giving it his all. Same with Dorian. They, along with Luka, KP and Maxi played way too many minutes. I think the team defense will be better with a few additions bringing everyones minutes down. Just add a couple dogs and we will be fine. Rick will get everyone to buy in. And if it’s failure next year we can still move on. 2011 Mavs won with team defense
(09-21-2020, 05:16 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 05:12 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Seems like you're almost expecting him to regress next season
My general rule of thumb is that I do not believe a "new leaf" has been turned over until I see two seasons of it.
We have seen ONE good season of THJ. I will be skeptical until he does it again. But if he does it next year I will believe he has made a lasting change.
There are just too many examples of one year outliers in guys' careers.
(09-21-2020, 05:12 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]you've missed a golden opportunity to sell high.
That's my fear. My gut says sell high on THJ now. But it is very possible that I am dead wrong. Who knows, time will tell.
Look at Dennis smith jr. Look at Hardaway. Look at Burke. Just like JJ Barea in Minnesota. Coaching matters. Culture matters. Look at Jimmy Butler and his stops and why he joined miami and why they’re successful. Hardaway is a better player here the same way JJ is better here. They just seem to fit. The fact it took one year is remarkable and something our front office wasn’t even expecting. From negative trade asset in KP trade to now isn’t necessarily the end. We heard all about him being a chucker, yet he had excellent shot selection. I never felt like he went rogue. He’s not just some guy either. He has pedigree. He was not given a starting position either. I do think the negative perception of him is his contract, which if he re-signs with mavs would be around 10-12 million same as everyone else(seth, maxi, dwight)
I think THJs production is easily replaced by quit a few of the available free agents and even more players if we include potential trade targets. Not to say that he is bad. He is a solid NBA player. Below average defender but good shooter. He finally found his role in Dallas. Career high 3PAr and the lowest usage rate since his first season in Atlanta.
It´s just that the Mavs need more from a starting wing. THJ is not really a 2nd or 3rd option and cannot carry the load when Luka is on the bench. He also is a bad defender. Meaning that despite his great shooting he does not fit into the 3&D role.
He certainly looks a lot better next to Luka but the same can be said for most of the Mavs players. Probably also for most role players around the league.
THJ had a 117 O-rating and 108.5 D-rating when he shared the floor with Luka. Without him he was clearly worse 113/110. With Luka he had 44/40/84 shooting splits. Without him he shot 43/38/79. He was +4.3 when he shared the floor with Luka. +0.6 without him.
(09-21-2020, 05:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I put that word in quotes, because that was his reputation. He put up an INSANE amount of shots everywhere he has gone (especially threes), but never did it at a high percentage. If you shoot a lot at an average or lower percent you get labeled a "chucker."
THJ was NOT a "chucker" this year, but I guarantee, if his three % slips back to his career average you will start seeing that label on him A LOT.
I think it's reasonable to think THJ won't revert back to chucking bc he is in a much better system and doesn't have the chuck. He is clearly the 3rd option and gets lots of wide open f-ing shots that he is happy to hoist up there like he's at shoot-around. Forcing up shots is just unnecessary. The beauty of his deal is you get one more year (assuming he opts-in) to see how he fits.
Yes I would rather have a two-way player but I thought he better defensively than his reputation. I just don't believe the Mavs are going to trade him unless they get a clear upgrade bc why would they? Otherwise see what happens in 2021, you will have options to upgrade his position then.
(09-21-2020, 06:23 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I think THJs production is easily replaced by quit a few of the available free agents and even more players if we include potential trade targets. Not to say that he is bad. He is a solid NBA player. Below average defender but good shooter. He finally found his role in Dallas. Career high 3PAr and the lowest usage rate since his first season in Atlanta.
It´s just that the Mavs need more from a starting wing. THJ is not really a 2nd or 3rd option and cannot carry the load when Luka is on the bench. He also is a bad defender. Meaning that despite his great shooting he does not fit into the 3&D role.
He certainly looks a lot better next to Luka but the same can be said for most of the Mavs players. Probably also for most role players around the league.
THJ had a 117 O-rating and 108.5 D-rating when he shared the floor with Luka. Without him he was clearly worse 113/110. With Luka he had 44/40/84 shooting splits. Without him he shot 43/38/79. He was +4.3 when he shared the floor with Luka. +0.6 without him.
He isn't great at creating his own shot and playmaking. That's why I said above, I believe the Mavs' greatest need is that Jrue Holiday type guy. If I were the Mavs and believed in Holiday's longevity, I would do everything I can and make everything but Luka and KP available to get Holiday, if an extension could be agreed on before the trade. But perhaps there are better and younger options (Schroeder?).
(09-21-2020, 06:48 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 05:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I put that word in quotes, because that was his reputation. He put up an INSANE amount of shots everywhere he has gone (especially threes), but never did it at a high percentage. If you shoot a lot at an average or lower percent you get labeled a "chucker."
THJ was NOT a "chucker" this year, but I guarantee, if his three % slips back to his career average you will start seeing that label on him A LOT.
I think it's reasonable to think THJ won't revert back to chucking bc he is in a much better system and doesn't have the chuck. He is clearly the 3rd option and gets lots of wide open f-ing shots that he is happy to hoist up there like he's at shoot-around. Forcing up shots is just unnecessary. The beauty of his deal is you get one more year (assuming he opts-in) to see how he fits.
Yes I would rather have a two-way player but I thought he better defensively than his reputation. I just don't believe the Mavs are going to trade him unless they get a clear upgrade bc why would they? Otherwise see what happens in 2021, you will have options to upgrade his position then.
I would still love to see them do so well this offseason as to be able to bring him off the bench if he stays another year. If all they want him to do is expire (or sign for way less next summer) and not trade him, there's no harm in that. I just don't see a path to two new starters (Luka, KP, and DFS stay in the starting lineup) without trading THJ, although I still think that if they nail the draft and can get a good rental with the MLE, that would still be better than the season-end situation. And no, please no Powell back in the starting lineup. He likely wouldn't be back until midseason anyway, and will have a lot of rust as he comes back.
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/3s27N9iSefL3VjgJMm/giphy.gif)
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/Zai3ffKrUcLFwalDor/giphy.gif)