(09-21-2020, 06:41 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Stolen from another board I read:
NY gives Taj Gibson (expiring) and Frank N.
Dallas gives Wright and a pick swap of 18 for 27.
Don't you think it's like NYK just doesn't pick up his team option? Knicks will be under the cap so I imagine the trade Dallas would want would be Wright + pick swap for Frank in this scenario. Knicks would get a player upgrade and a better pick.
I think Mavs would be able to get a better deal though for #18 which is a pretty valuable pick imo. Frank is like a flyer type. If I could get Frank just for JJ straight up that's a move I like. I wouldn't waste #18 in a trade-down just to get off of Wright's money and take a flyer on Frank.
(09-21-2020, 12:12 AM)Omega_Supreme Wrote: [ -> ]Sorry guys, I stand corrected, I am still out on trading Maxi for OPJ.
I better be getting Laure M. or another piece but Maxi is a valuable asset and overperforms at his price point.
His value goes for deeper than his production
Ya there's no way I would do Maxi for OPJ.
(09-20-2020, 11:09 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]@Kammrath what do the abacus dudes say about Aaron Gordon?
ORPM...
19-20: -1.05
18-19: -0.79
17-18: +1.83
DRPM...
19-20: +2.02
18-19: +1.11
17-18: +0.86
On/Off O...
19-20: +4.7
18-19: +2.9
17-18: +4.0
On/Off D...
19-20: -4.6
18-19: +0.8
17-18: +0.9
I think interpreting Gordon's numbers is REALLY tricky. A quick couple of examples without getting into more detail than I have time for:
1) Fultz to ME was the clear defensive weak link on the team and AG played 1300 of his 2000 mins with him last year (and the team D sucked when they were together). Augustin was SO MUCH better than Fultz on D and in the 658 mins AG played with him the team D was GREAT.
2) Isaac was a defensive beast for ORL and so were Bamba and Iwundu. AG looked good with Bamba and Isaac but didn't with Iwundu.
Overall point: AG's data is really messy to me and it is hard to get a handle of all the weird variables on the ORL squad.
My opinion?
I think AG can be a plus on BOTH sides of the ball, but has also shown that he can be a big minus on both sides of the ball. I think scheme, fit, effort, and supporting players around him make a huge difference. I for one am largely in the AG camp, IF the Mavs think he would buy into RC's way of doing things. I love AG's potential to be a two way impact player in the right situation and if he can be selfless.
(09-21-2020, 08:25 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Ya there's no way I would do Maxi for OPJ.
I would want to hang on to Maxi if at all possible, but I would need to know more details about a deal centered on OPJ and Maxi before I say "no way."
Man I like OPJ but I am surprised this board would part with Maxi. OPJ is a good player but expiring and injury-prone. Maxi's contract is a thing of beauty. There are plenty of teams imo that could use him as their small-ball center. I would peg his value as worth like a mid-round 1st round pick and I would rather have him than #18 all things being equal just bc he is a known quantity.
Mavs should be able to add to this roster without taking important pieces. OPJ is good but can you get a wing in his ballpark without giving up assets? I would argue you can.
I would love A Gordon but I am not getting my hopes up as the Mavs are all in on 2021 cap space. You would have to shed multiple contracts like Wright and Curry to make the money work and I don't think they Mavs will do that. Furthermore I expect the Mavs to completely dump Wright's money this summer to free up net 8 mil or so in 2021 so that they have that max spot fully open (or really close).
(09-21-2020, 10:47 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]OPJ is good but can you get a wing in his ballpark without giving up assets? I would argue you can.
Do you have an example of this?
I struggle to find anything close to what I think OPJ offers on the court.
(09-21-2020, 10:57 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 10:47 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]OPJ is good but can you get a wing in his ballpark without giving up assets? I would argue you can.
Do you have an example of this?
I struggle to find anything close to what I think OPJ offers on the court.
So not apples to apples but in totality you are looking for an athletic wing. OPJ's biggest issue is his recent injury history which is severe. I think that alone is reason not to give up any major asset.
There are other wings available through trade like Kelly Oubre and FA. I like Justin Holiday as a guy that you could get that won't cost a lot. There are young guys like RHJ and DJJ you could get. Jae Crowder is playing well and Miami is going to have a tough time keeping him as they want 2021 space. I would expect them to try to get as much of a 2020 1-yr raise as they can since they have his bird rights.
There are any number of guys of varying quality so you have to consider what you are getting in terms of production, contract status and what you are giving up to get the player. With that in mind I just don't think OPJ gives you enough over other options to warrant letting go of a key piece like Maxi.
(09-20-2020, 07:57 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ] (09-20-2020, 01:33 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]
But Dallas does have expiring contracts in Wright ($8.5 million) and Finney-Smith ($4.0 million) along with team-friendly deals in Powell, Curry and Kleber to make the maneuvers possible.
It may be time to explore Plan: Have-It-Both-Ways in more detail. This is different than Plan Powder where you just clear cap space an hope. The idea here is optionality. Yes, we want to improve in 2020. Yes, we'd like rights to good players beyond 2020. But, we'd like the option to move on if something better comes along. Given the numbers from Bobby Marks, we can't take on any new long term salary and in fact need to get rid of some 2021 salary at some point. You would keep THJ on the roster (no extension) in plan HIBW's. You can let him go if Giannis says yes. But, he's a useful player who could be retained if Freak goes elsewhere.
Some data points...I've replaced two of the minimum slots in the numbers Marks put out with $898,310 (what Claxton signed for at #31 last year) and the $2.97 cap hold on WCS. Keeping WCS fits the Have It Both Ways plan because Willie's hold is cheap and he can be let go of if necessary. So, the roster as it stands is KP, Powell, Luka, Maxi, Wright, Curry, DFS, Brunson, 18, 31 and WCS plus two minimum cap holds. Out are Jackson, THJ and Boban. We are now about $17mm shy of a $32.7mm max slot for Giannis.
The concepts from here are:
1. No multi-year guarantees for the MLE. You can do team options for years two and three (to have it both ways). This probably takes you out of contention for the best MLE players available.
2. Use your picks...especially #31 which is less expensive than a vet minimum. You aren't going for the top MLE players, so using some of it to sign #31 to a 3 year deal isn't a problem.
3. You have to trade $17mm in salary at some point. It could certainly be right after Giannis says yes. If you clear some or all of that space now, you have to take back expiring contracts and if possible, an expiring contract that improves the team if you decide to keep him.
4. Imagine your team post Giannis when making roster decisions. GA is a PF who also gets some time as a small-ball center. That position will probably go into which salary you trade away.
5. Pay attention to Agent relationships. GA is represented by Octagon. So, we won't be crapping on Seth Curry to bring in Giannis. Other clients include Satoransky, Schroder, Culver, Anunoby, Adebayo, DiVincenzo, Solomon Hill, Culver, Monte Morris and Treveon Graham.
Some of the things we've talked about don't fit Plan HIBW's. Wright for Thad Young is out. Satoransky and his $5mm partial guarantee is also probably out. OPJ, on the other hand, is the perfect HIBW's deal. Big expiring contract AND good enough that you'd want to keep him if GA doesn't come here. Snell works here. We aren't talking stars. More likely overpaid rentals. Aldridge and Gibson are other possibilities. Frank N. is a risky HIBW's move. You wouldn't make the QO. So, if he plays really well and you want to keep him, you will need cap room to do so.
As to the MLE, it could certainly be one year of Burke. Personally, I'd rather take a flyer on Josh Jackson (over-pay with one year guaranteed). RHJ on a one year overpay would also work. Recall that you spent some of the MLE on #31, so this isn't Paul Millsap getting the entire MLE. This is someone with some upside agreeing to a short deal for $7-$8mm.
The trickiest part of Plan HIBW's is the "who" and "when" part of getting rid of $17mm worth of salary. Half of that is pretty easy. There are tons of Wright or Wright plus Jackson deals floating around. If you aren't giving up your pick you aren't getting anyone fantastic (Snell and Gibson were mentioned earlier as expiring deal who might provide more than Wright and Jackson). But, if you want to get to OPJ leve, you have to include someone else. I think it would be Maxi. That combo gets you within $63,000 of hitting the max slot number in 2021. I get that we all love Maxi, but trading Seth violates #5 above and no team is taking on Powell without seeing him in action. That leaves Maxi and Wright as the path to $32.7mm (and Giannis plays Maxi's position). It doesn't have to be right now. You could certainly wait until Giannis says yes. But if expiring OPJ and THJ and one year guarantee Josh Jackson are the ideal HIBW's plan, then Maxi is probably the cost.
That trio is probably improvement over Wright/Jackson and Maxi (and you kept your picks). They are good players if you end up keeping them. But, not so great that you wouldn't help them pack if Giannis said yes.
KP/WCS/Boban
OPJ/Powell
DFS/Josh Jackson
THJ/Curry/Lee
Luka/Brunson
Great post. Yes, optionality is a key feature of plan have it both ways. And THj fits that plan well. We will keep an eye on FA 2021 cap room, but i don’t think we pass on quality players that eat into that space(someone like DJJ for full multi year MLE). We would just deal with moving contracts for Giannis when it comes. I think we see Wright and 18 moved soon in trade and it would be easy to move Powells contract to make max room. It’s not something we need to do pre-Giannis saying yes to us.
Should be noted that OG recently changed from Octagon to Klutch
KP for Giannis makes a ton of sense and many national guys have mentioned this. The space saved for FA 2021 could be used to round out the team around Luka and Giannis. This option would only make sense for us if next season was disappointing for both teams
I don't know that Crowder would be cheap, really, probably overpaid, when the dust clears. But, he'd be a fit, imo.
The only think I'm totally sure about is that I don't want to add players without any playoff experience. At least, not players counted on to be in the rotation.
(09-20-2020, 10:40 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-20-2020, 10:28 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-20-2020, 10:23 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I think THJ is okay on the ball but one of the worst pick and roll and team defenders in the league. No one on the roster misses more rotations. In two of the early bubble game threads I posted some video breakdown. Sadly I cannot find it right now.
I wish everyone would take note of how dirkfan does the eye-test in his posts. He backs it up with actual concrete observations (often specific plays) rather than just generic statements: "________ is a TERRIBLE defender!"
The "eye-test" is legit, but it is so often a lazy man's evaluation tool for making unfounded declarations, when in reality it requires just as much work as good statistical interpretation.
I think defense as a whole is really hard to evaluate for fans. We simply don´t know the schemes or play calls. It´s easy to blame the guy that gets scored on in an iso mismatch that only happens because his teammate missed a rotation or did not fight over a screen. Same for pick and roll defense. I have watched games and complained about the bad pick and roll defense but after the post game interview I realized that the players did exactly what the coach wanted when they went under the screen.
I think the current Heat-Celtics series shows that coaching and team defense are way more important than individual on ball defense. The Heat can shut down the Celtics offense with bad on ball defenders like Dragic, Robinson and Olynyk. Neither of them is any better than Powell, THJ or Curry when it comes to on ball defense.
Under Spoelstra, the Heat have always had this super active swarming defense, that you can only beat with disciplined controlled ball movement. That´s why we and the Spurs beat them. For these young inexperienced guys in the East, it´s a major problem, even without the talent of Bron, Wade and Bosh on the current Heat.
(09-21-2020, 11:35 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know that Crowder would be cheap, really, probably overpaid, when the dust clears. But, he'd be a fit, imo.
The only think I'm totally sure about is that I don't want to add players without any playoff experience. At least, not players counted on to be in the rotation.
I don't think cheap but gettable (by someone other than the Heat). It's hard to predict. I think the Heat can offer him 175% of his current salary (correct me if I am wrong) for 1 yr which would put him at around 13 mil for 1 yr. Teams could try to steal him away for MLE level starting at 10 mil/yr and add multiple years to the deal. It's hard to pinpoint his value but it seems plausible that he will get 10 mil+/yr this offseason, the question would be just how many years attached? At any rate I don't think the Mavs will be able to get him bc his price will be too high.
(09-20-2020, 07:57 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Plan: Have-It-Both-Ways
I have one problem with this plan. It can only work in conditions, where everything is known or where you have multiple offers on the table. I am not sure this is how reality works.
For example: you receive an offer of Gordon+Aminu for THJ+Jackson straight up. Do you pull the trigger or say no, I am only doing deals for expiring salaries?
Or if Cleveland offers Osman for Jackson and future second?
Fortunately for us, most of the deals we are discussing here are expiring anyway
(09-21-2020, 12:06 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I think the Heat can offer him 175% of his current salary (correct me if I am wrong)
Nope, they have his bird rights, so they can offer him as much as they want
Re: "someone like DJJ for full multi year MLE)" I am not sure how much he will cost but even a smaller contract could steal him away from Miami who wants clean books in 2021. If Mavs moved off of Wright's money and could get DJJ on a value contract less than what Wright would have cost then I think it's at least a possibility.
(09-21-2020, 11:25 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]OPJ's biggest issue is his recent injury history which is severe.
That's why such a good player is available to be had. The injuries are not serious though. He had a shoulder injury 56 games into the 18-19 season that he recovered from. Had a sprained ankle and needed 6 stitches in his mouth early this season, he recovered from that. Then he had a foot bruise that he was getting ready to come back from this season before COVID-19 hit.
Before those minor setbacks he had seasons of 77 games in 17-18, 80 games in 16-17, 75 games in 15-16, and 74 games in 14-15. That's hardly a recipe for being labeled injury prone and none of those injuries are ones that are gameplay debilitating.
He's a 40% 3 pt shooter on 3.3 attempts/game for his career which includes poor shooting and low attempts in his first 3 years. He's a "guard the other team's best player" defender (1-3, could get away with the 4 if the player is another wing) with lock-down capability. He's 27 years old, not really sure what there is to not like about him.
(09-21-2020, 12:08 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-21-2020, 12:06 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I think the Heat can offer him 175% of his current salary (correct me if I am wrong)
Nope, they have his bird rights, so they can offer him as much as they want
Sorry, I should have clarified. For sure Heat *can* offer him whatever they want but they won't bc they aren't going to eat into 2021 space. So even a 2 yr deal over 20 mil will have them out of the running.
(09-21-2020, 12:21 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]He's a 40% 3 pt shooter on 3.3 attempts/game for his career which includes poor shooting and low attempts in his first 3 years. He's a "guard the other team's best player" defender (1-3, could get away with the 4 if the player is another wing) with lock-down capability. He's 27 years old, not really sure what there is to not like about him.
What you call minor setbacks I call missing major time over 3 seasons. I like OPJ as a target but I am not willing to give up Maxi. Salary matching could be an issue without THJ and I don't see how Mavs can include picks with THJ's opt-in status. All that being said if we can get OPJ without giving up a Maxi or Seth type asset I am open to it.
(09-21-2020, 12:22 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So even a 2 yr deal over 20 mil will have them out of the running.
Why? They can offer him 15 mil for one season, for example. He is not that old to seek his 4 year MLE deal next season
(09-21-2020, 10:47 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Man I like OPJ but I am surprised this board would part with Maxi. OPJ is a good player but expiring and injury-prone. Maxi's contract is a thing of beauty. There are plenty of teams imo that could use him as their small-ball center. I would peg his value as worth like a mid-round 1st round pick and I would rather have him than #18 all things being equal just bc he is a known quantity.
Mavs should be able to add to this roster without taking important pieces. OPJ is good but can you get a wing in his ballpark without giving up assets? I would argue you can.
I would love A Gordon but I am not getting my hopes up as the Mavs are all in on 2021 cap space. You would have to shed multiple contracts like Wright and Curry to make the money work and I don't think they Mavs will do that. Furthermore I expect the Mavs to completely dump Wright's money this summer to free up net 8 mil or so in 2021 so that they have that max spot fully open (or really close).
Looking at Maxi i think it’s helpful to make comparisons between us and Miami. Here’s a team in the heat that have done everything right. Look at Kendrick Nunn, DJJ and Duncan Robinson. Undrafted vs drafted doesn’t matter at all. They’re just good young players that were acquired. No difference between them and DFS and Maxi in regards to how they were acquired. Yes, Maxi is older, but that doesn’t matter. He only has 3 years in the league, which is fewer than DJJ who is also in the late bloomer category. Speaking of DJJ and DFS.......it’s not surprising that the finalists to sign both of these undrafted FA’s were Dallas and Miami.
To me our drafted/developed players are Luka, Brunson, Curry, Maxi and DFS. When making trades i think we should keep that in mind. We have all these guys locked up for years on team friendly deals too
(09-21-2020, 12:21 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]That's why such a good player is available to be had.
I am not really sure I understand the logic. What would be the Chicago motivation to move him? He is basically their only wing. His contract is expiring so who cares if he is overpaid.
(09-21-2020, 12:22 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]What you call minor setbacks I call missing major time over 3 seasons.
Why do you guys keep saying 3 seasons? Can we all please read the information correctly? It's been 2 seasons starting with a shoulder injury the season before last at 56 games. I outlined his injuries above and none of them are such a big issue that you label him injury prone. Sure, he's had a rash of injuries this season after coming back from the shoulder injury, I don't see that as a big deal at all, esp with the nature o fthe injuries not hindering his ability to get back 100%.
(09-21-2020, 12:28 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 12:21 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]That's why such a good player is available to be had.
I am not really sure I understand the logic. What would be the Chicago motivation to move him? He is basically their only wing. His contract is expiring so who cares if he is overpaid.
All of this started with articles out of Chi saying pretty much their whole roster is for sale, including Lauri, OPJ and Lavine. As well as fan unrest about their team.
(09-21-2020, 12:21 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Re: "someone like DJJ for full multi year MLE)" I am not sure how much he will cost but even a smaller contract could steal him away from Miami who wants clean books in 2021. If Mavs moved off of Wright's money and could get DJJ on a value contract less than what Wright would have cost then I think it's at least a possibility.
And if it comes down to it we could always trade him. Any contract of $10 million or less is easy to move. That’s why i don’t think we should get all caught up on opening a max slot THIS offseason. Bring in the best guys we can(without getting crazy on adding to 2021) and only AFTER a Giannis yes do we make the tough decisions on who gets traded. Only then would we consider trading from the core to make it all fit. Last summer showed us it’s easy to maneuver if you’re close
I have a screw plan powder, let's compete now proposal.
1. Huge three team trade
OKC: Powell, THJ, Jackson, Phi first rounder (save 7 mil in season 1, more in season 2)
Phi: Paul, Curry (they don't increase salary, get two much better fitting pieces)
Dal: Harris, Richardson, Scott
2. Sign Burke for part of MLE, #18, #31
3. Dump Wright (plus future seconds) for better fitting piece, lets say Snell
Harris is hugely overpaid but a good third option. Richardson is a good fourth option. Should be a very good starting five and potent bench, with a couple of cheap youngsters. Fill the rest of the spots with ring chasing vet min contracts.
Luka, Brunson, #31
Richardson, Burke
DFS, #18, Snell
Harris, Maxi
KP, WCS, Boban
1. WCS has been at the mavs facility a good bit. I think it shows that he will opt in to his player option and be part of next years roster
2. Lamarcus Aldridge has been using our facility for years. I don’t see any way we could salary match for him or why we even would, but there’s a chance he could get bought out by the spurs after the deadline if they don’t get a decent offer. Wouldn’t be surprised if he came to us
There should be so many cheap bigs available we should definitely lean towards a guard or wing in trade