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(09-11-2020, 08:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Here's the rub with Plan Powder. If we hold out for max space, we are basically trading 1. THJ, the 2. the 2020 MLE and 3. an alternate player we could trade for in 2020 for that max player. Other than Giannis, who are we willing to make that deal for? If the idea is to add a $20mm player in 2021 (while retaining THJ), couldn't we try to spend that same money (through trade) in 2020? OPJ is on the list as a potential good starter among 2021 FA's. Why not get him a year early. Is there a path to FVV or Bogdanovic through S&T AND then still be able to use the MLE? Short of Giannis, I don't see giving up THJ for two $17mm players in 2021 as one will simply replace THJ.

I think the better plan, once I looked at the numbers, is Plan Powder Be Damned. You have Wright, Jackson and Lee who can be combined for a pretty large contract (thank you Tyler). I would probably look at Lee at about $8mm (basically $5mm from Cuban and the Vet Min combined so that the net cost would be Vet Min to the acquiring team). That gets you into the range of a lot of the big dollar trade names we've discussed (or FA's like FVV and Bogdan). We have plenty of stand still shooters (THJ and Curry) and traditional bigs (KP, Maxi, Powell and presumably WCS). We need a playmaker who can also play off the ball and cover the other team's best guard (a better Wright or a better Burke). And, we need a Power Wing who defends and hits 3's (a better DFS so that DFS can be a super sub). Add those two guys and this is top 3/4 right now. Other than Giannis, what is the point in waiting?

Awesome stuff - I'm starting to see this in a different way, thanks. I still think Giannis might be worth it, but I admit that if he's the only option, the plan gets much more pipe dreamy than I've been thinking it would be.

(09-11-2020, 08:38 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-11-2020, 08:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Other than Giannis, what is the point in waiting?

Exactly. And if Giannis wants to come, no one will care if we spend 2025 and 2027 picks to get rid of unwanted salaries, if needed. Keep the core, upgrade Wright and Jackson contracts with one good player (use picks if needed) and sign someone good for MLE.

Yes, yes and yes. If we add contracts that are either value or on par with their production you don’t even need to add picks to clear the space. We could get a second and space to clear Kleber’s contract for example.

(09-11-2020, 08:38 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-11-2020, 08:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Other than Giannis, what is the point in waiting?

Exactly. And if Giannis wants to come, no one will care if we spend 2025 and 2027 picks to get rid of unwanted salaries, if needed. Keep the core, upgrade Wright and Jackson contracts with one good player (use picks if needed) and sign someone good for MLE.

I was originally thinking #18 might be a Euro-Stash. But, if we want to maximize the MLE in 2020, maybe #31 is the stash. That way we don't use any of the MLE to sign the second rounder for 3 years. Plus, when Mr. Stash comes over in a year, he is the same as any other Minimum contract (and hopefully an asset as he had a good year in Europe).

(09-11-2020, 09:11 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]I was originally thinking #18 might be a Euro-Stash.

I expect at least one pick to be traded. Either to trade up or for better player

@"DanSchwartzman" pour cold water on picks + THJ which has been cited by a lot of media peeps. It makes sense that THJ wouldn't be officially "opted in" by the time the draft roles around. That is a big deal to me bc it would make a Jrue Holiday type move more difficult.

I still think there's a very good chance Wright is moved along with 1 or 2 picks for another player. Wright + Jackson would add up to 14 mil which would help in a lot of salary matching moves. For Jrue I think you'd end up having to do Wright, Jackson, Curry + 2 picks for Holiday. Pels have a lot of open roster spots so I don't think having an uneven player swap would be an issue.

Not sure Pels would go for that or not.

I would love Giannis on the Mavs but think the chance is extremely low so I hope he puts us all out of our misery and signs the Supermax. With the uncertainty related to the cap he has extra money motivation (to the extent he cares ab that) to lock in a huge deal now.

As we discussed 2021 is sort of a Giannis or bust scenario. If/when he becomes unavailable, I think the MBT will suddenly become more flexible in terms of Plan Powder. To me at that point PP is a fallback if they can't find something better now than what they anticipate being available in 2021.

(09-11-2020, 08:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ](...) Plan Powder Be Damned. (...)

I am starting to think that this will be one of the most boring offseasons in history. Uncertain cap situation. Uncertain date for the draft (will we even have pre draft workouts?). Uncertain date for opt in/out deadlines. Uncertain date for the start of free agency.
I expect most players with an option to opt in. RFA to stay with their team. The few available UFA to sign with teams that have capspace. No big trades.

(09-11-2020, 11:52 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I am starting to think that this will be one of the most boring offseasons in history. Uncertain cap situation. Uncertain date for the draft (will we even have pre draft workouts?). Uncertain date for opt in/out deadlines. Uncertain date for the start of free agency.
I expect most players with an option to opt in. RFA to stay with their team. The few available UFA to sign with teams that have capspace. No big trades.

Well, if that means we are not trading 2-3 picks for a player that becomes an UFA in 7-8 months like Holiday, I´ll be very happy.

Those proposals make no sense to me.

Package Kleber+Wright for an good expiring player or free agent makes more sense. I like Maxi, but if we can sign Saric or Markkanen, he becomes expendable. Since his contract has positive value, he can off-set the negative value of Wright. If we go above the MLE for Saric (say 64/4), Kleber would actually be an ideal partner for Ayton. Sets us up nicely to spend the MLE and keep both picks.

What I think will happen is a lot of bigger 1+1 contracts. Players anticipate the cap staying the same for the next 24 months. Franchises not wanting to commit big long-term.

(09-11-2020, 12:06 PM)Mavs2019 Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-11-2020, 11:52 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I am starting to think that this will be one of the most boring offseasons in history. Uncertain cap situation. Uncertain date for the draft (will we even have pre draft workouts?). Uncertain date for opt in/out deadlines. Uncertain date for the start of free agency.
I expect most players with an option to opt in. RFA to stay with their team. The few available UFA to sign with teams that have capspace. No big trades.
Well, if that means we are not trading 2-3 picks for a player that becomes an UFA in 7-8 months like Holiday, I´ll be very happy.

Those proposals make no sense to me.

Package Kleber+Wright for an good expiring player or free agent makes more sense. I like Maxi, but if we can sign Saric or Markkanen, he becomes expendable. Since his contract has positive value, he can off-set the negative value of Wright. If we go above the MLE for Saric (say 64/4), Kleber would actually be an ideal partner for Ayton. Sets us up nicely to spend the MLE and keep both picks.

What I think will happen is a lot of bigger 1+1 contracts. Players anticipate the cap staying the same for the next 24 months. Franchises not wanting to commit big long-term.

Not really sure how Maxi becomes expendable just because the Mavs sign another all offense/no defense PF. Saric will probably not even get the full MLE. QO is more likely.

(09-11-2020, 11:11 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]@"DanSchwartzman" pour cold water on picks + THJ

I still think there's a very good chance Wright is moved along with 1 or 2 picks for another player. Wright + Jackson would add up to 14 mil which would help in a lot of salary matching moves. For Jrue I think you'd end up having to do Wright, Jackson, Curry + 2 picks for Holiday. Pels have a lot of open roster spots so I don't think having an uneven player swap would be an issue.

Don’t forget Lee. Wright/Jackson and Lee at $6.3mm gets the job done once the calendar turns. This is an example of Plan: “why not do it now” for Dallas. I have no idea what the proper pick compensation should be, but getting the money right is fairly easy.

Getting a return for Jrue is probably better asset management for NO than letting him get to free agency in 2021. They are much further behind in the timeline than Dallas and he will be expensive (same agent that just got all that money for Al Horford). The question is whether Dallas can get away with Wright, two expiring deals and say #18 and 2025. There will clearly be other bidders, but matching $25mm isn’t easy. Much will depend on Jrue’s willingness to sign an extension to go somewhere. He’d be eligible for a 20% raise on his $25mm final year salary.

If you can somehow pull that off and keep your current core (including THJ) and use the MLE this summer (Grant?) then are those three players worth giving up the Giannis chase? Does the equation change if you have to include Maxi or Curry instead of S&T Lee?

(09-11-2020, 12:36 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Jrue

He is probably best possible fit next to Luka. Add another strong wing defender who can hit an open three and we become contender number one imho.

The question about Jrue is how much competition can offer. There are several teams who feel they are one move away. Just a couple of examples:

Brooklyn can easily make a far more compelling offer aroundd LeVert, some young players (Kurucs) and picks. Dallas can't even come close to that with all picks.

Denver would most likely not want to include MPJ, but they have all picks but 2020 available for trade.

Miami has cap space, young players, 2020 and 2022 picks.

Unfortunately, I don't think an offer of Wright, Jackson and a couple of mediocre picks would be competitive. Even if you add Kleber or Curry. I am affraid Jrue is too big of a target.

(09-11-2020, 12:26 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Not really sure how Maxi becomes expendable just because the Mavs sign another all offense/no defense PF. Saric will probably not even get the full MLE. QO is more likely.

Agreed, Maxi is a very valuable player. I would not trade him for a no-defense guy.

(09-11-2020, 08:19 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Other than Giannis, what is the point in waiting?

AD,Lebron, Kawhi,PG, Oladipo,Derozen,Gobert,Adams and may be even Jrue will be free agents in 2021 most likely. Other 2nd tier Dinwiddie,Schroder,Josh Richardson,Oubre,Bjelica,Aldridge,Conley. Could move some names like Adams and Derozen to 2nd tier.Those are players we basically get for THJ and may be Wright and whatever we put on trade for him.

OTOH, what is the alternatives?Most of the proposed trades here are one of 3 things:
1-Pure fantasy, no team would accept those offers. This is normal among fans when talking about trades.

2-Doesn't improve us as much, and an overpay.

3-Would kill the team chemistry we have been building build:
A lot of those trades are based on "we need x number of starters" which I disagree with. This team is built on chemistry, we tried to build that in 2018 but KP trade presented itself, when we traded Barnes Luka was furious about his teammates leaving. The end of the season was difficult.
We rebounded, built a team that is from guys we groomed like DFS,Maxi,Seth and new additions like KP, THJ. Everyone knows his role in this team, there is great in and off the court chemistry. They are young and inexperienced, we are still at early stage of developing. We made life more difficult on the Clippers than 3rd seed Denver. And yet people thinks that at most we have only 3 starters and want to blow the rest of the team that isn't named Luka & KP?

People has bad history with plan powder, but plan win now can also be killer, the Rondo trade should be a reminder that team chemistry is far more important than the names we bring.

Jrue trade is good example of this, one proposed trade here included Wright and some of our garbage, why would Pelicans accept that? Another trade included Brunson, THJ, 18+31 iirc, that basically giving all of our youth for 30 years old who had only 4 playoff appearance from 11 years career, who could walk next year if he became success, or stay if he was bad to get his money.

I don't have a problem with criticizing plan powder, I have a problem with the alternatives

(09-11-2020, 12:36 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Don’t forget Lee. Wright/Jackson and Lee at $6.3mm gets the job done once the calendar turns. This is an example of Plan: “why not do it now” for Dallas. I have no idea what the proper pick compensation should be, but getting the money right is fairly easy.

Getting a return for Jrue is probably better asset management for NO than letting him get to free agency in 2021. They are much further behind in the timeline than Dallas and he will be expensive (same agent that just got all that money for Al Horford). The question is whether Dallas can get away with Wright, two expiring deals and say #18 and 2025. There will clearly be other bidders, but matching $25mm isn’t easy. Much will depend on Jrue’s willingness to sign an extension to go somewhere. He’d be eligible for a 20% raise on his $25mm final year salary.

If you can somehow pull that off and keep your current core (including THJ) and use the MLE this summer (Grant?) then are those three players worth giving up the Giannis chase? Does the equation change if you have to include Maxi or Curry instead of S&T Lee?

So the Lee thing has been mentioned and sounds interesting on it's face. Have we see a S&T like that in the current CBA? I don't recall whether we have seen a "filler" based S&T. If we did do something like that it would make more sense why the Mavs kept Lee and his big cap hold to begin with. That being said its hard for me to picture that happening if it hasn't happened before in the current CBA.

Grant would be amazing. I can't see any reason why he wouldn't opt out of his current contract as it should be easy for him to resign for more with the Nuggets or another team. The issue for me is why would Denver who gave up a 1st round pick not simply resign him to a long-term deal that is above MLE? I suspect he would get at minimum a full MLE offer from multiple teams. Dallas, who doesn't want to spend 2021 money might change their tune if Giannis is off the table but even then its hard for me to see how they can outbid the market which includes some under the cap teams who can spend more and Denver who has his bird rights.

Jrue would be amazing, I just wonder if GS is going to swoop in with a 2nd overall pick and Wiggins. Wiggins isn't a great player but he is a good player. The biggest issue with him is the 3 years he has left on his deal but you are getting a good player + the 2nd pick. The Pels might be targeting a window 3 years from now anyway or might do a 3 way that lands them a better player than what the Mavs could offer. A lot of teams are open to trading their picks and Jrue is a desired asset by many teams who want to get to the next level. I will keep my finger's crossed but it could be tough.

(09-11-2020, 01:58 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]Jrue trade is good example of this, one proposed trade here included Wright and some of our garbage, why would Pelicans accept that? Another trade included Brunson, THJ, 18+31 iirc, that basically giving all of our youth for 30 years old who had only 4 playoff appearance from 11 years career, who could walk next year if he became success, or stay if he was bad to get his money.

I don't have a problem with criticizing plan powder, I have a problem with the alternatives

So evidently THJ can't be paired with picks anyways so that's a moot point. I don't think I'd give up Brunson who I love simply because you own his rights for a long time and he fits in well with this team's window. As much as I love Curry, I might be willing to give him up for Jrue or another player who is a for-sure starter. Curry's contract is great, another 3 years at low-ish money. He will be 33 at the end of it but has very low miles on his tires in terms of minutes played. He is very much an asset and I would not want to give him up but we have to consider all options that don't include Luka or KP imo.

Get rid of Maxi making 3/27 to sign Saric to 4/64.

WUT

(09-11-2020, 01:58 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]AD,Lebron, Kawhi,PG, Oladipo,Derozen,Gobert,Adams and may be even Jrue will be free agents in 2021 most likely.

AD, LeBron, Kawhi and PG most likely WON'T be free agents in 2021. Gobert is a bad fit and Adams is a dinosaur far from a max player. DeRozan is far from max player too. This leaves you with Oladipo and all the doubts if he really is a max player. Jrue will most likely be traded this season (and then resigned) or he stays put.

2nd tier guys we can easily sign, even if we add full MLE this season and change Wright+Jackson for someone that has 2021 salary left on his contract.

Conclusion again - having 2021 flexibility as number 1 strategy is not smart. Number 1 strategy should be improve as much as possible this season while keeping the core.

(09-11-2020, 02:34 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]AD, LeBron, Kawhi and PG most likely WON'T be free agents in 2021. Gobert is a bad fit and Adams is a dinosaur far from a max player. DeRozan is far from max player too. This leaves you with Oladipo and all the doubts if he really is a max player. Jrue will most likely be traded this season (and then resigned) or he stays put.

2nd tier guys we can easily sign, even if we add full MLE this season and change Wright+Jackson for someone that has 2021 salary left on his contract.

Conclusion again - having 2021 flexibility as number 1 strategy is not smart. Number 1 strategy should be improve as much as possible this season while keeping the core.

Agreed on AD, etc altho they might be briefly FA's before signing longer deals with their current teams.

Agreed on Gobert, Adams and any other center idea. Did ppl watch last season??1 KP is our center.

Oladipo is a target and will probably get a dumb contract just bc of supply and demand, and he will have a lot of choices where to go if he even makes it to FA before he's traded. I think the Pacers will be highly motivated to trade him before the offseason bc they understand as a small market team that they won't be able to keep a lot of their guys who become FAs.

Agreed on Jrue which is why I want the Mavs at least in on some trade negotiations.

Sort of agree on second tier guys but I don't think MBT will go that route. I think they might go away from Plan Powder if Giannis is off the board but they are still going to be hunting for a big target like Jrue, Oladipo or others in that sort of tier 2, tier 3 level almost all-star bucket of players.

(09-11-2020, 12:36 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-11-2020, 11:11 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]@"DanSchwartzman" pour cold water on picks + THJ

I still think there's a very good chance Wright is moved along with 1 or 2 picks for another player. Wright + Jackson would add up to 14 mil which would help in a lot of salary matching moves. For Jrue I think you'd end up having to do Wright, Jackson, Curry + 2 picks for Holiday. Pels have a lot of open roster spots so I don't think having an uneven player swap would be an issue.

Don’t forget Lee. Wright/Jackson and Lee at $6.3mm gets the job done once the calendar turns. This is an example of Plan: “why not do it now” for Dallas. I have no idea what the proper pick compensation should be, but getting the money right is fairly easy.

Getting a return for Jrue is probably better asset management for NO than letting him get to free agency in 2021. They are much further behind in the timeline than Dallas and he will be expensive (same agent that just got all that money for Al Horford). The question is whether Dallas can get away with Wright, two expiring deals and say #18 and 2025. There will clearly be other bidders, but matching $25mm isn’t easy. Much will depend on Jrue’s willingness to sign an extension to go somewhere. He’d be eligible for a 20% raise on his $25mm final year salary.

If you can somehow pull that off and keep your current core (including THJ) and use the MLE this summer (Grant?) then are those three players worth giving up the Giannis chase? Does the equation change if you have to include Maxi or Curry instead of S&T Lee?

If I have to give up Curry + multiple picks, can I get Lonzo thrown n the deal?

To add to that 2020 strategy. Jrue is most likely out of reach for Wright/Jackson core and picks. But players like:
Sato, OPJ, Young, Osman, Rose, Kennard, J.Johnson, Schroeder, Richardson, Oubre and White are possible. Each of them makes our team better than Wright/Jackson in theory. Bunch of interesting MLE targets like Dunn, DJJ, Crowder, Millsap, perhaps Grant or Wood are also available. If we can pull one guy from the trade group and one from MLE group this team is considerably better imho. Or we just draft a rookie, if we really like someone, sign someone for MLE and try to switch Wright for someone like Snell, who would fit better

The Jerami Grant trade makes me angry still bc Mavs could have beaten the Nuggets offer with a leftover TE or Lee and the Mavs pick. At the time you would have had to believe the Nuggets would finish with a higher record than the Mavs (which ended up being the case). I have no idea why OKC gave him up to begin with and for only a mid-late round pick. It should give you some hope that if that type of deal was available then maybe a deal like that could be available this year? We will see, I doubt it.

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