MavsBoard

CP3 isn't going to turn down money. And Mavs presumably wouldn't do a CP3 deal unless Giannis is off the table. I am not sure I believe they have real interest in CP3 right now anyway altho its still interesting to think about.

(09-11-2020, 05:53 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]@"DanSchwartzman" can you or someone else remind me if you can do 1 yr contracts with MLE? I thought maybe there was a minimum amount of years you had to do on those. I would definitely be interested in a 1 yr Paul Millsap deal.
 

The non-taxpayer MLE is minimum 1 and maximum 3 years.  Question 25 of the FAQ.

Do S&T's require a minimum number of years?

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https://thesmokingcuban.com/2020/09/12/d...rge-ibaka/

No connection or rumor yet but I'd like Serge on a 1-yr or S&T.

(09-11-2020, 05:36 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]AD, Lebron, Kawhi, PG, Oladipo, Derozen, Gobert, Adams and maybe even Jrue will be free agents in 2021 most likely.

Other 2nd tier Dinwiddie, Schroder, Josh Richardson, Oubre, Bjelica, Aldridge, Conley. Could move some names like Adams and Derozen to 2nd tier.Those are players we basically get for THJ and may be Wright and whatever we put on trade for him. 

I don't have a problem with criticizing plan powder, I have a problem with the alternatives

Let me stat this in more clear way: I am not against spending MLE in 2020. If we keep a room for flexibility in 2021 I have no problem with it.  

We trade our expirings for long term contracts? That is a big no for me. 

I didn't refer to your trades specifically, I replied first at DanSchwartzman  post. 

I am all for trading Wright and Jackson too. Specially Wright since he neither fit win now or win later. 

Omahen already made the point about the biggest flaw in your argument...AD, Lebron, Kawhi and PG aren't coming here and Gobert and Adams aren't really fits.  Jrue fits, but as was stated earlier in the thread, if he is available, he will move by trade, not by free agency.

So, what do you have left?  Oladipo, DeRozan, Dinwiddie, Schroeder, Richardson, Oubre, Bjelica, Aldridge or Conley.   

1.  I wouldn't trade THJ for half of those guys, let alone give him up AND handcuff myself for a year hoping to get one of them. 

2.  I suspect a good number of them are available by trade this season.  Why wait?  

3.  If you plan to give up Hardaway, why not trade him?

4.  It will cost an asset to move Wright/Jackson with no returning salary.  If you are giving a long term asset, wouldn't you want a long term asset?

5.  If you trade those two AND let THJ expire AND use the MLE (which seems to be your plan), you will likely have between $22mm and $32mm in space depending on the cap (which is unknowable at this time).  If we get the lower end number, all you've really done is replace Hardaway.  You've not added anything.  Even if the cap is larger, you haven't added a star.  If you split the space, you've replaced THJ and added a 3rd/4th starter type.  You can do that in trade in 2020 and not have to worry about the cap.

I don't consider myself pro or anti Plan Powder.  I've probably been more pro than anti in the past.  But the 2021 class (the realistic part of it) isn't that great.  If we could find a better version of Wright and a better version of Jackson to soak up their minutes, we'd be top 3/4 in the west.  Waiting til 2021 doesn't guarantee you a third star by any means.  So, why not seek improvement whenever the opportunity presents itself...no matter what the history and board prejudice about certain terms.

(09-12-2020, 08:43 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-11-2020, 05:36 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: [ -> ]AD, Lebron, Kawhi, PG, Oladipo, Derozen, Gobert, Adams and maybe even Jrue will be free agents in 2021 most likely.

Other 2nd tier Dinwiddie, Schroder, Josh Richardson, Oubre, Bjelica, Aldridge, Conley. Could move some names like Adams and Derozen to 2nd tier.Those are players we basically get for THJ and may be Wright and whatever we put on trade for him. 

I don't have a problem with criticizing plan powder, I have a problem with the alternatives

Let me stat this in more clear way: I am not against spending MLE in 2020. If we keep a room for flexibility in 2021 I have no problem with it.  

We trade our expirings for long term contracts? That is a big no for me. 

I didn't refer to your trades specifically, I replied first at DanSchwartzman  post. 

I am all for trading Wright and Jackson too. Specially Wright since he neither fit win now or win later. 

Omahen already made the point about the biggest flaw in your argument...AD, Lebron, Kawhi and PG aren't coming here and Gobert and Adams aren't really fits.  Jrue fits, but as was stated earlier in the thread, if he is available, he will move by trade, not by free agency.

So, what do you have left?  Oladipo, DeRozan, Dinwiddie, Schroeder, Richardson, Oubre, Bjelica, Aldridge or Conley.  

5.  If you trade those two AND let THJ expire AND use the MLE (which seems to be your plan), you will likely have between $22mm and $32mm in space depending on the cap (which is unknowable at this time).  If we get the lower end number, all you've really done is replace Hardaway.  You've not added anything.  Even if the cap is larger, you haven't added a star.  If you split the space, you've replaced THJ and added a 3rd/4th starter type.  You can do that in trade in 2020 and not have to worry about the cap.

One problem I have with a lot of the cap analysis is that people automatically assume players will get these massive contract offers. Besides the reduced/stagnant cap COVID has real life implications for a lot of owners. To most basketball is a money-making vehicle and I just don´t see some owner of a 30 win franchise go out and give DeRozan a long-term max contract just so he can elevate them to 42 wins. Assuming he´d want to sign with such a franchise.

The whole point of putting out a more competitive product for shitty teams (on paper) is to sell season tickets. Well currently there are no tickets to sell. I honest expect players like DeRozan or Oladipo to have to settle for 100/4, if they want a long-term deal. Also isn´t 2021 supposed to be this super draft class, too?

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I´m very much in favour of adding some players with the MLE, because I assume the chance to create a value contract exists under these circumstances. Or you overpay two younger minimum level players (with a 1+1 team option) to see whether you can elevate their game. Players like Noah Vonleh, Stanley Johnson, Harry Giles, Josh Jackson, Juancho and Willy Hernangomez.

That´s probably the biggest reason to oppose Plan Powder. Say you split the MLE between Josh Jackson and Noah Vonleh, add the #18, #31 and maybe one undrafted rookie for a two-way contract. Suddenly you have five players age 25 or under. Odds are at least one can crack your rotation long-term. That´s already better than giving new contracts to Courtney Lee or JJB. It´s also another reason to trade Delon Wright. He blocks a roster spot. The Mavs need to build a core around Luka and to me that means trying out as many young players as possible in the fringe roster spots 12-15.

(09-12-2020, 08:25 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Do S&T's require a minimum number of years?

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https://thesmokingcuban.com/2020/09/12/d...rge-ibaka/

No connection or rumor yet but I'd like Serge on a 1-yr or S&T.

Below is what Bobby Marks wrote in the article that was linked in the Smoking Cuban story.  If the Mav's were to go after Ibaka, it wouldn't be a one year deal.  The competition would be an overpay on a one year deal by Toronto, so Dallas would have to go multi-year.  BTW, earlier in the story, Marks raises the possibility of the cap staying flat at $109mm in BOTH 2020 and 2021.  Puts a dent in Plan Powder.

Ibaka is a center.  He's a much better interior defender than on the perimeter.  You can certainly play him next to KP on offense, but that combo will get pick and rolled to death on D.  Ibaka was a bench player this season unless Gasol was unavailable.  Then he was a very serviceable starter (sound like a familiar need?).  If we are going to manage KP's health throughout the season, then a legitimate replacement is needed.  What about Maxi?  If this is where Dallas decides to use the MLE, they are signaling that 5-Out is a Death Lineup, not the standard.  The standard would be two bigs on the floor much of the time. This would also take some pressure off of Powell returning, but means WCS is not likely to return.  I guess it could put Maxi on the trading block, but a team with KP REALLY needs 3 additional usable bigs for those times when KP isn't available.



"Ibaka averaged a career-high 15.4 points per game while still offering a defensive presence in the middle. Although his 0.8 blocks per game were the lowest in his career, Ibaka ranked in the top 20 in defensive field goal percentage based on opponent attempts at the basket. As both a reserve and a starter, Ibaka now plays almost exclusively at center after playing most of his career as a power forward.

Ibaka should expect to see offers at the $9.3 million midlevel from playoff teams that do not have cap space. Dallas and Portland are possible suitors. The Raptors can preempt or counter that by offering a one-year, $18 million contract (with essentially two seasons of money paid in one year), allowing them to preserve cap flexibility in 2021. That would be a win-win."

 

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Gasol and Ibaka played together a total of 89 minutes all season in 19/20.  It was only 31 minutes together in 18/19.

The Mavericks could be playing chess here. If Ibaka is interested in a longer term deal it could impact Toronto's plans for 2021 after hearing they are interested in Giannis.

If I am the Mavericks I am all over this Ibaka idea, he would fit in perfect with Luka and KP.

(09-12-2020, 09:30 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Ibaka

He sure is a possibility, although I would expect a one year Raptors offer in the range of 15 mil. If available, I would prefer Milsap, though. I think Kleber, Powell and Milsap can cover non KP regular season games just fine.

(09-12-2020, 10:58 AM)Omega_Supreme Wrote: [ -> ]this Ibaka idea

I love this Ibaka idea. A high IQ defender that can double as a stretch 4/5 and doesn't require shots to be effective. 

I also think he could be an effective lob threat being a screener for Luka. Mavs should match whatever offer Toronto gives, but add an extra year.

But targeting Ibaka makes one of Powell or Maxi redundant and expendable. If the Mavs offer Ibaka a 2 (or even 3) year MLE deal, which is what I think is what it'd take for Ibaka to come here, then I'd have to imagine they'd trade one of Powell or Maxi to keep 2021 space open. 

In my pipe dream, the Mavs sign Ibaka, and trade Powell, Wright, and THJ (plus whatever picks) to the Spurs for DeRozan and White. 

This way the Mavs still have max room for 2021, and replaced our 3 worst players with a reclamation all-star, a top 20 defender, and an offensive creator. 

Next year Mavs go in with
Luka/Brunson/White
DeRozan/Curry/Lee
DFS/DeRozan/Jackson/Reeves
KP/Maxi/Ibaka
Ibaka/Boban/*maybe WCS?

Mavs could maybe add Gay to the trade above and they'd still have max room in 2021 plus another solid starting wing. Is THJ expiring, broken Powell, and Wright plus 18+31 enough for the Spurs? I doubt it. But I don't know what team would want DeRozan besides the Knicks. 

Honestly that team looks like a dark horse title contender to me. Mavs with this roster pushed arguably the strongest playoff team to their limits. Replace the weakest links with an all-star and some solid role players? Whew...

(09-12-2020, 11:06 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-12-2020, 09:30 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Ibaka

He sure is a possibility, although I would expect a one year Raptors offer in the range of 15 mil. If available, I would prefer Milsap, though. I think Kleber, Powell and Milsap can cover non KP regular season games just fine.

I see Ibaka as an upgrade over Kleber in the starting lineup. Kleber and KP played fine together in the playoffs so there's no reason why Ibaka wouldn't do well in that spot. He is tall but can play PF or center. Kleber off the bench with Powell makes a lot of sense. They play well together and Rick likes Kleber to fill KP's spot when KP is on the bench. Ibaka is still only 30 years old and brings that veteran presence we really need. I do think he is gettable if you give him multiple years as the Raptors want to preserve cap space.

The starting lineup would be: Luka, THJ, DFS, Ibaka, KP which as you saw in the playoffs gives you really good interior defense and rebounding. You are giving up some perimeter defense bc it's hard to solve every problem. At some point you need to find ways to upgrade spots in your starting lineup. Our bench should be the best in the league with Curry, Brunson, Powell, Kleber, Boban and I think you try to find a wing to replace Wright.  There's a better than zero chance Lee comes back for the minimum and finds a role off the bench.

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(09-12-2020, 11:39 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Next year Mavs go in with
Luka/Brunson/White
DeRozan/Curry/Lee
DFS/DeRozan/Jackson/Reeves
KP/Maxi/Ibaka
Ibaka/Boban/*maybe WCS?

DeRozan doesn't play defense or shoot outside which makes him a bad fit. I would rather have THJ honestly. THJ is a better defender. If he opts-in I am totally good with just seeing how year 2 goes with him in the backcourt. Mavs have a ton of confidence now going into next year. I expect even with smaller moves to see the Mavs hitting the ground running (absent injury).

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Also I wouldn't mind a vet min deal for Ryan Broekhoff. He doesn't really have a position but I think here he would be good as SF backup. He might not get consistent minutes but when he is in there we know he hustles on both sides of the ball and shoots 3s at a good clip.

The other move I'd like to see is bring in RHJ as a replacement for MKG. MKG's defense just isn't good enough to justify him being on a roster and that's supposed to be the one thing he does. RHJ is a legit defender that we need on the bench.

(09-12-2020, 12:06 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]THJ is a better defender.

Is THJ a better defender though? Defensive stats don't paint a whole picture, but comparing DeRozan to THJ defensively, by in large they're a push. With a slight edge going to DeRozan. 

DRTG- 113 for DeRozan (115 last year), 113 for THJ (115 last year). 
DBPM- -0.8 for DeRozan (-0.4 last year), -1.4 for THJ (-1.4 last year).
DWS- 1.3 for Derozan, 1.1 for THJ
DFG%- 50.6% for DeRozan, 54.8% for THJ.

So at worst they're exactly the same, at best DeRozan is slightly better. But while both have their defensive shortcomings, it's on the offensive end where DeRozan becomes more interesting. Firstly, DeRozan does not suffer from the JR Smith school of thought that THJ attended. He does not take risky dumb shots. That alone is a plus. 

Secondly, while DeRozan is a terrible 3pt shooter, he is still an incredible scorer. He is one of the most efficient mid-range shooters of all time. He shot 53% from the field last year, with 35% of all of his shots coming from mid range.  61% of his shots coming from inside the paint less than 6FT. He is a reliable mid range shooter. 

We saw in the playoffs how wildly inconsistent the Mavs outside shooting could be. We needed more reliable options. DeRozan provides that. He is also adds another dimension to the Mavs offensive firepower. Not only do the Mavs retain the rest of their elite 3pt shooters, (and add 2 more good 3pt shooters in Ibaka and White),  they also add the best mid range shooter in the league. He's also an athletic slasher that'd greatly benefit from Luka and KP providing space. 

DeRozan is also offensively talented enough to lead the offense while Luka sits. DeMar is in the 91st percentile for Pick n Roll ballhandlers. For comparison, Luka is in the 90th percentile. So not only does DeRozan provide a new dimension to the offense, he also brings to the table another offensive creator that is good enough to give Luka a break.

I think DeMar is a good player but not a better fit in the Mavs offense than THJ. Luka creates a lot of wide open shots from outside which THJ can hit. He had a very good year despite a slow start. Unless we find a clear upgrade I am good with THJ in the back court with Luka for a full year. I think you will see him continue to thrive. His shot selection i thought improved over the course of the year.  He knows he is the third option.

(09-12-2020, 12:49 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I think DeMar is a good player but not a better fit in the Mavs offense than THJ. Luka creates a lot of wide open shots from outside which THJ can hit. He had a very good year despite a slow start. Unless we find a clear upgrade I am good with THJ in the back court with Luka for a full year. I think you will see him continue to thrive. His shot selection i thought improved over the course of the year.  He knows he is the third option.

By all accounts THJ had a career year. 39% from 3. That is almost a 5% increase from his career average. Who's to say that THJ doesn't catapult back down to earth after having an outlier efficient year?

I think DeRozan's value as an elite pick n roll creator is far more valuable than THJ hitting an outside 3. Especially considering in this hypothetical, the Mavs would obtain 2 more outside shooters that could replace that production. 

THJ is a sold starter. But we've seen how inconsistent he can be, and how that drastically limits the ceiling for any contending team. The unrealistic plan I proposed is an ultimate plan "Have it Both Ways"

I think DeRo at best is a lateral move. Maybe if THJ leaves you look at DeRosa? I still don't like a guard that can't shoot outside in Rick's offense.

THJ was our less reliable shooter in the playoffs. Absolutely the worst performer against the Clippers. That being said, if it's not a clear upgrade, I'm not willing to involve picks.

(09-12-2020, 12:49 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I think DeMar is a good player but not a better fit in the Mavs offense than THJ. Luka creates a lot of wide open shots from outside which THJ can hit. He had a very good year despite a slow start. Unless we find a clear upgrade I am good with THJ in the back court with Luka for a full year. I think you will see him continue to thrive. His shot selection i thought improved over the course of the year.  He knows he is the third option.

I don't see us winning it all with Luka having such a high usage rate. We need guys that can score when the shots not falling. I felt like that was the biggest thing missing in the Clippers game. 

We need to be able to somehow figure out offense that is not generated by Luka. Derozan would do a lot of damage when Luka demands a double team. 

I would be supportive of this move now but not next year.

(09-12-2020, 01:33 PM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]That being said, if it's not a clear upgrade, I'm not willing to involve picks.

Is DeMar+White+Ibaka not a clear upgrade over THJ+Powell+Wright?

(09-12-2020, 01:36 PM)Omega_Supreme Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see us winning it all with Luka having such a high usage rate.

MJ led the NBA in usage rate in FIVE of the six seasons they won the title, averaging around 33 in usage over those six title seasons. MJ had a playoff usage rate between 35.5 and 38.0 for FOUR of the six title runs. 

Luka had a usage of 36.8 this season and 37.5 in the playoffs. If anything Luka maybe needs a slight down tick in usage in the regular season to save his body, but his high usage rate is what will cause the Mavs to have success. You don't take the ball away from someone with such elite efficiency.

(09-12-2020, 01:40 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-12-2020, 01:33 PM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]That being said, if it's not a clear upgrade, I'm not willing to involve picks.

Is DeMar+White+Ibaka not a clear upgrade over THJ+Powell+Wright?

Leaving Ibaka out (Free agent), White is not getting traded (Spurs fans would rather trade Murray) and Derozan is an expiring. If it is Wright/THJ/18 for Derozan, I'll probably consider doing it. If it doesn't work, at least we shed Wright's salary.

THJ for DeRozan does nothing for me honestly.

Ibaka and like RHJ or DJJ would be good for me. All are on teams that are all in on 2021 cap space so you can steal them away for the right price. We know the Mavs wanted DJJ last summer and had interest in RHJ at the trade deadline. I am surprised they couldn't pry RHJ away for a future 2nd.