(10-05-2020, 11:17 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ] (10-05-2020, 09:01 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]For salary purposes we'd have to do THJ and JJ. After that, I proposed a 2023 second to make Chi whole on their trade to get him with draft picks. I believe that would mostly beat any offer there is for OPJ, and if they didn't think so, I'd throw in another second and so on to the point where I would have no problem giving up the 2025 first. Beyond that I would say, OK, we'll just compete for him in FA after he then knows how much we wanted him.
I'm a big fan of OPJ on this team and would love to have him in his contract year if possible. But, I see no point in trading THJ for him. The idea is to ADD to the roster. I'd much rather do a deal centered on Wright and Jackson with Lee filling in the needed salary. BTW, OPJ would be eligible for an extension if we liked what we saw once he hit the court.
Chicago is truly the Island of Misfit Toys with new people at the top. Who knows what they will do. The trick with them (and anyone else where Wright might go) is figuring out if he's a fit there. It is possible he could fit, but they would have to pass on a PG with their pick and not attempt to retain Dunn. If they did those things they'd have Sato, White and LaVine. Or, maybe they deal LaVine opening the need for another guard. Is it possible Wright could be an asset? Maybe. Unfortunately, he could also be seen as an obstacle to max cap room in 2021. Of course, OPJ would also be an obstacle which is why they might consider getting some value for him rather than letting him walk. He is basically their only wing, so, drafting a wing or getting one in trade, might strengthen the argument that OPJ could be traded. Lots of ifs there for any of this to feel very likely.
All the better if it takes less than THJ to land OPJ.
THJ is just the easiest way to salary match without having to do 3 for 1.
Are you suggesting that Wright, JJ and a SnT of Lee would be enough to get OPJ? I find it hard to believe that that offer isn't beaten.
Do you have any picks suggested in the trade? With Wright, it seems like you would almost have to include a first (2025 or this year unsigned either way) which there are those who believe you have to include to get off his contract anyway.
As far as adding to the roster, I believe swapping THJ for OPJ IS adding to the roster. You add a defensive player AND an offensive player to the roster (both in a single player package) while you let go of an offensive player. That's adding to me, or as I've been saying it, improving the roster.
(10-05-2020, 11:49 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ] (10-05-2020, 11:17 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm a big fan of OPJ on this team and would love to have him in his contract year if possible. But, I see no point in trading THJ for him. The idea is to ADD to the roster. I'd much rather do a deal centered on Wright and Jackson with Lee filling in the needed salary. BTW, OPJ would be eligible for an extension if we liked what we saw once he hit the court.
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I guess now that you know Dan likes him, no more wet blanket.
(10-05-2020, 11:54 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]All the better if it takes less than THJ to land OPJ. THJ is just the easiest way to salary match without having to do 3 for 1.
Are you suggesting that Wright, JJ and a SnT of Lee would be enough to get OPJ? I find it hard to believe that that offer isn't beaten.
I think what he's suggesting (and what I think) is that you get the best deal you can for Wright/Jackson, Wright/picks, or all of the above. Depends on what's out there.
If that's OPJ, great, though we have no idea whether they like him or not. If OPJ is not available for that, you look elsewhere. He's a role player. Find another one.
I categorically reject your continued assertion that OPJ could "replace the contributions of THJ on offense." I think this is an extremely false foundation for your argument and drastically misses the mark on how important THJ was for the team this year. He understands his role here and played it really, really well. Getting him shots was a cornerstone goal of the offense, and he knows how to get open and get them off.
I believe that he is worth more (straight up) in trade than OPJ, a role player on a bad team with a history of injuries and underachieving. I don't hate OPJ AT ALL, but I'm certainly not interested in swapping those players for each other. I think the Mavs are likely to be WORSE next year if they do that. Since the goal is likely to be letting either player expire and come off of the books next year anyway, why take the chance?
If you can turn Wright (or even Powell) into OPJ, somehow, that's an ADDITIONAL expiring contract. That's when it would get interesting, to me.
(10-05-2020, 11:54 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I guess now that you know Dan likes him, no more wet blanket.
Yeah, I must not have been making myself clear, sorry.
I don't dislike OPJ, I just don't think he's anywhere remotely close to the difference making player you seem to think he is. It's not about hating him, it's about NOT hating what the Mavs have already established as their identity.
I DO think OPJ would fit here, but I don't think he'd help so much that he's worth "whatever it takes" to get him.
I'm not rejecting OPJ, just the idea of trading THJ for him.
(10-05-2020, 12:12 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I categorically reject your continued assertion that OPJ could "replace the contributions of THJ on offense." I think this is an extremely false foundation for your argument and drastically misses the mark on how important THJ was for the team this year. He understands his role here and played it really, really well. Getting him shots was a cornerstone goal of the offense, and he knows how to get open and get them off.
Now we're actually getting somewhere instead of sniping snide comments here and there.
Did you think THJ would contribute like he did before this year started? I give you the Luka effect. You take a player who shoots 93.3% on catch and shoot 3's for his whole career and what does Luka turn him into?
A guy who has played 3rd banana on offense with 2 stars in Wall and Beal and showed when given the opportunity and spacing that those 2 stars allowed, he'll hit at a high percentage. Now insert Luka who knows how to and wants to hit the open man on the court and does it better than Wall or Beal and I can only imagine what that looks like for a career 40.4% 3pt shooter on 3.3 attempts (not a small amount over a 7 year career and in the low to mid 4 attempts per after his first 2 years).
A player who for the first 5 years of his career, as his minutes and role increased, his numbers increased. That, to me, is a guy you want on the team. Is he the be all end all? I don't think so. But he is for sure more than just another role player. I can't see him coming in here and not accepting a role like THJ's and not being able to fill it on offense.
As far as THJ, you say he understood his role here, but you're ignoring the defensive side of the ball. I can't imagine his role there was to miss assignments and not do well. However, keep giving lip service to needing better defense while not caring whether or not we get better defenders.
(10-05-2020, 01:15 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]The great thing about him is that he is a net positive on offense and defense. Really balanced skill set and impact.
One other thing to ask about this.
How easy is it to find this in one player in the NBA?
@"ItsGoTime" I'm not sniping snide comments. I think I've been perfectly pleasant.
Where "we're getting" is to a place where you can type the same argument you've typed a dozen times already. I've read it. I've considered it. I disagree. There's no point in going over it again. You are free to believe what you believe, as am I, no?
The part of Dan's post that I "mvp'd" was this: "The idea is to ADD to the roster. "
I don't see THJ for OPJ as addition. I have no problem with the player, and I think he could help, but I'd RATHER have THJ here than OPJ. For me, it's that simple.
(10-05-2020, 01:25 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see THJ for OPJ as addition.
I think THJ + OPJ = big addition to the roster.
I think OPJ - THJ = small addition to the roster.
So I think getting OPJ is addition EITHER way, but preferably you want to hold onto THJ (assuming he shoots like last year).
(10-05-2020, 01:33 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-05-2020, 01:25 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see THJ for OPJ as addition.
I think THJ + OPJ = big addition to the roster.
I think OPJ - THJ = small addition to the roster.
So I think getting OPJ is addition EITHER way, but preferably you want to hold onto THJ (assuming he shoots like last year).
Right, and you're basing those opinions on statistical analysis, which is awesome. I get that, and I trust your opinion a lot.
I agree with the the first point. Surely, even you can admit that your second line is speculation (no matter how informed you believe it to be). You might be right, but I don't think it's a slam dunk or a team altering no-brainer.
All I'm saying is that for THAT price, I'm out, personally. I'd prefer to look for a different role player who I can AFFORD to trade for without losing a key contributor for next season. I'd move THJ for a MAJOR piece, either this off season, at the deadline, or let him expire to create room the following off season, but I think he's pretty valuable to the team in the meantime.
(10-05-2020, 12:55 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]One other thing to ask about this.
How easy is it to find this in one player in the NBA?
Don´t really think that this is some kind of stand out reason to sign him. Being on a similar level on offense and defense doesn´t mean that he is great on either end. More like above average on both offense and defense.
Just to ilustrate my point. Not as an actual player ranking. Let´s say Porter is a 6/10 on offense and defense (with 5/10 being average). RoCo is a 5/10 on offense and a 9/10 on defense. One clearly has the bigger impact even though he is not as balanced.
I think the big advantage a player like Porter offers is the versatility when it comes to a longterm roster build. He fits on a more offensive minded team that values pace and floor spacing but also has the tools to have an impact on a team with a grit and grind defense first mentality.
Ya, if we are going to keep THJ and Curry I can’t get excited about adding another player with the same profile.
(10-05-2020, 06:39 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Ya, if we are going to keep THJ and Curry I can’t get excited about adding another player with the same profile.
If you're referring to the Hield article, the trade idea was THJ + 18 for Hield.
(10-05-2020, 07:31 PM)radioaktiv Wrote: [ -> ]If you're referring to the Hield article, the trade idea was THJ + 18 for Hield.
Now, here is where I keep THJ if that is all that surfaces from the trade market. In all honesty, with that contract just about to kick in, they should be giving us their first round pick to take him off their hands. I see how Hield would probably be an upgrade over THJ, but if he is, it's only slightly and not in the direction this team needs the upgrade. THJ isn't worth $18M for 1 year, so there's no way I want Hield at $94M over another 4 years.
There was a "popular" trade on the TradeNBA site posted by a Sixers fan that had the Sixers sending us JRich and two second round picks (36 and 49) for Curry. Since so many folks rate JRich above Curry here, I kinda chortled that the Sixers guy was giving us picks, but the grass is greener I suppose. I don't know a whole lot about him, but he must be a damn good defender given how highly people rate him and how rotundly mediocre his offensive stats are. In any event, if the Sixers have any pressure from Rivers to reunite him with his son-in-law, then sure, you could easily milk them of those picks. Sixers need shooting if they're going to try to build around Embiid/Simmons (which I think is a pretty stupid idea, but which Doc indicated they plan to do).
So, a little fun with that - let's say the Mavs did that one, and were also able to trade Wright/Powell/JJ/18 for Porter. Then they buy a pick in the 20s.
KP/WCS/Bobi
OPJ/Maxi/pick
JRich/DFS/pick
THJ/Burke/pick
Luka/Brunson/pick
Two huge contracts coming off the books in '21, and perhaps they hit on a pick or two. Do you all think this is a better team that what we fielded this past year?
How about if we were able to do the Porter deal with 31 instead of 18, and instead used the 18 and THJ to do the Hield deal? I don't like that as much because I'd rather keep 18 if we were able to keep it getting Porter, and because I prefer the big '21 room. BTW, those saying the Mavs aren't parting with Powell, if they are dumb enough to view him as an untouchable cornerstone, they have problems.
With that above roster, I didn't even get into how they could use the rest of the MLE, which they might be willing to do with THJ/OPJ expiring.
How about KL's OPJ deal (no 18), IGT's Hield deal (no 18, but rather they give us 12 to take Hield's contract)? You don't have near the room in '21, but you could package 12 and 18 to move up for a player you are really convinced could help *or* use them to get two pretty good players at those picks, *or* package those picks with something else to get back a really good player.
(10-05-2020, 07:31 PM)radioaktiv Wrote: [ -> ]THJ + 18 for Hield.
NO WAY.
No chance am I giving up #18 for a larger contracted version of THJ in Hield. Even though Hield has the possibility to be the 3rd banana and think THJ cannot, I am not confident enough to burn a good pick in this deep draft.
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(10-05-2020, 08:21 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-05-2020, 07:31 PM)radioaktiv Wrote: [ -> ]THJ + 18 for Hield.
NO WAY.
No chance am I giving up #18 for a larger contracted version of THJ in Hield. Even though Hield has the possibility to be the 3rd banana and think THJ cannot, I am not confident enough to burn a good pick in this deep draft.
I would probably agree (and said as much!), but we have to remember we are competing against other deals. As I said in my edit, THJ for Hield and 12 would be pretty friggin' awesome - and could have conceivably happened if the Kings hadn't fired Divac.
I have a feeling Hield would fit here like a glove, and he's one of the few players who had a better shooting season last year than THJ, by the criteria I think is important. That trade is probably an upgrade, and exactly the kind of move I'd make if we were in a post-2021 world.
But, it's not good enough to convince me to turn my back on 2021, personally. I really like the idea of having Hield here, but not enough to go all in on it. This COULD end up being a mistake later, in hindsight, as Hield might be the best we could've done, once the dust clears.
My guess is that there won't be anything out there that tempts them into burning the THJ expiring contract.
As doubtful as it is, could OPJ opt out of his contract in agreement with Chicago to S&T him to Dallas? Dallas would have to agree to give him a deal longer than one year for more money than he’d get as a FA, but this could be a way to get him on a winning team and convince Chicago to help him out to get back some “value” (Wright + Jackson + 31). If so, his first year salary could be no more than $19,029,650 (a $9million loss in year one), so year two would have to be close to $20mil (to recover the $9mil loss, and slightly more than what MLE offers would be next summer at the remaining $11mil).
I don’t want to trade THJ for OPJ. Dallas would be far better off having both players here compared to just one. But the salary makes it difficult to find a reasonable trade. In fact, I find very few options using these parameters.
I’ve seen it mentioned that the MLE addition could be used in a trade at the deadline, but what if OPJ has a healthy and very productive season? Then the cost to acquire him goes up and potentially takes Dallas out of the running or costs one of Maxi/Curry/Brunson (who I attempt to retain in any OPJ trade, although maybe you could convince me to part with Brunson).
(This section may not be accurate, but I tired to research what I could to make this as accurate as possible before posting) Trades centered on Wright + Jackson are tough. Using 2019-2020 salaries, they can be traded for someone making $5mil more than them, which would be a salary no more than $17,754,607. Otto Porter Jr. needs $22,250,576 to salary match, which is basically a $4.5 million difference. Dallas would need to acquire a player making no less than $17,254,607 but could not get anyone that exceeds $17,754,607. Favors and Jackson were the only two player that fell in that category, and neither of them are eligible to be traded, so this is a dead end. Using 2020-2021 salaries, Jackson and Wright (total salary $14,029,650) can bring back a player making up to $19,029,650. A trade for Otto Porter Jr. using next season's salary would need to be at least $23,489,239. Here, Dallas and Chicago have more options. Dallas needs at least $18,489,239 in salary to match OPJ. Here, I found 2 players: Terry Rozier at $18,900,000 and Julius Randle at $18,900,000. For Chicago, Randle makes the most sense of the two candidates considering how many guards they currently have and Randle fits their timeline slightly better (25yrs vs. 26yrs.).
Rumors in NY say they are looking to trade Randle, would a package of Wright, Jackson, and 18 OR 31 be enough? For Chicago, would Randle + 18 OR 31 be enough? I think Ney York and Chicago are 50-50 on the deal, but here's what could push them over. Wright and Jackson (and cap relief) make more sense to New York than Randle. Frank and Dennis have struggled in NY and there are always rumors that both of them could be headed elsewhere, so Wright gives them an older backup guard. Jackson is a flyer, and if he improves could be worth something as an expiring. The draft pick adds to their capital and is the big sweetener for helping Dallas get OPJ. In return for their help, they receive pick 31. For Chicago, again, Randle fits the timeline slightly better, saves money, and has a small guarantee for 2021-2022. If he works out well, they keep him or trade him to get more value. If not, they cut him and still end up saving more than with OPJ. Randle is a better get than Wright and Jackson, as I feel he has a better chance to rebuild his value quickly and be moved due to the low guaranteed amount in 2021. Because of this, I don't think Chicago will demand a draft pick, but if they do then trade them Miami's 2023 second round pick. (Honestly, the picks could go either way, maybe Dallas trades 18 and 31 because Chicago and NY are adamant that they receive them...If Dallas loses both picks in this deal, I would like to see them pick up either one of Chicago or New York's second round picks this draft or next year, but I would not consider it a deal breaker)
Final Recap:
I believe Dallas would have to trade for Randle, and then trade Randle for OPJ (two separate, two team transactions, not one 3 team transaction)
Incoming for each team
Dal: OPJ
NY: Wright/Jackson/31
CHI: Randle/Miami '23 second round pick
(10-05-2020, 11:06 PM)SamStetz Wrote: [ -> ]As doubtful as it is, could OPJ opt out of his contract in agreement with Chicago to S&T him to Dallas? Dallas would have to agree to give him a deal longer than one year for more money than he’d get as a FA, but this could be a way to get him on a winning team and convince Chicago to help him out to get back some “value” (Wright + Jackson + 31)
I don’t want to trade THJ for OPJ. Dallas would be far better off having both players here compared to just one. But the salary makes it difficult to find a reasonable trade.
I’ve seen it mentioned that the MLE addition could be used in a trade at the deadline, but what if OPJ has a healthy and very productive season? Then the cost to acquire him goes up and potentially takes Dallas out of the running or costs one of Maxi/Curry/Brunson (who I attempt to retain in any OPJ trade, although maybe you could convince me to part with Brunson).
*More to come...researching numbers***
He's making 28.5M this year. I don't think he'll come close to getting a contract with those type of yearly numbers again and if he does, I hope we had no part in it. No way he opts out.
(10-06-2020, 12:18 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]SamStetz dateline='<a href="tel:1601957198">1601957198</a>' Wrote: [ -> ]As doubtful as it is, could OPJ opt out of his contract in agreement with Chicago to S&T him to Dallas? Dallas would have to agree to give him a deal longer than one year for more money than he’d get as a FA, but this could be a way to get him on a winning team and convince Chicago to help him out to get back some “value” (Wright + Jackson + 31)
I don’t want to trade THJ for OPJ. Dallas would be far better off having both players here compared to just one. But the salary makes it difficult to find a reasonable trade.
I’ve seen it mentioned that the MLE addition could be used in a trade at the deadline, but what if OPJ has a healthy and very productive season? Then the cost to acquire him goes up and potentially takes Dallas out of the running or costs one of Maxi/Curry/Brunson (who I attempt to retain in any OPJ trade, although maybe you could convince me to part with Brunson).
*More to come...researching numbers***
He's making 28.5M this year. I don't think he'll come close to getting a contract with those type of yearly numbers again and if he does, I hope we had no part in it. No way he opts out.
I agree 100%, He would be crazy to opt out since his next deal likely won’t be anywhere close to the 28.5 he makes, but I hope Dallas is the one who pays him his 28.5 this season
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