MavsBoard

(10-13-2020, 05:59 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The biggest if, by far, is whether or not he decides to leave Milwaukee.

I can't get past this. I don't know what people think Mil isn't doing to TRY to put a winner around him, but that has been all he's said he wants from them. 


90% he stays, 4% he's a Mav, 3% he's a Heat, 3% he's somewhere else.

(10-13-2020, 06:48 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-13-2020, 05:59 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The biggest if, by far, is whether or not he decides to leave Milwaukee.

I can't get past this. I don't know what people think Mil isn't doing to TRY to put a winner around him, but that has been all he's said he wants from them. 


90% he stays, 4% he's a Mav, 3% he's a Heat, 3% he's somewhere else.

You might be absolutely correct. 

My objection isn't with predicting the swing will be unsuccessful. That's anyone's guess. I just don't think the Mavericks' profile right now with any free agent is anything close to what it was when they went after Howard, and Giannis, in particular, would make sense here (if he's looking). It's not stupid to keep the option open unless you're passing up something really good to do so. I think people are so gun-shy after Howard and Williams (Fish even tried to sell us on LeBron during a summer when they didn't have cap room, lololol) that they'd prefer not to try. I disagree with that completely, but would of course rather take the bird in hand...that bird had better fly gracefully and sing a pretty song, however.

In the past Mavs have been mentioned at the front of the line for player X, only to be standing in the wrong line.

(10-13-2020, 06:56 PM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]In the past Mavs have been mentioned at the front of the line for player X, only to be standing in the wrong line.

Lol, exactly.

“The Dallas Mavericks are gonna be at the head of the line in pursuing Giannis. They want to have a 3rd star,” said Windhorst. “They want to keep their books clear for 2021, I wouldn’t expect them to add any major free agents this year. They’re going to wait.”

So pursuing Giannis is not really a big news story but the thing this board needs to understand is that Windhorst and others are saying the Mavs aren't going to spend money on FA's this year. I would add that for the same reason they aren't going to add money through trade either. Expect short-term moves.

Mavs have picks to do something interesting but it's got to be a move that won't add future dollars.

(10-13-2020, 06:48 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-13-2020, 05:59 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The biggest if, by far, is whether or not he decides to leave Milwaukee.

I can't get past this. I don't know what people think Mil isn't doing to TRY to put a winner around him, but that has been all he's said he wants from them.


90% he stays, 4% he's a Mav, 3% he's a Heat, 3% he's somewhere else.

The Bucks have virtually no flexibility. It's not like they're in a position to "just go get player x" with the contracts and cap situation they have. It probably involves a lot of Billy King future mortgaging to do a single thing that will move the needle even slightly. It's a testament to what a tremendous talent Giannis is that they haven't already given up - you don't give up on someone like him, no matter how bleak things look, until it's irretrievably over (see Davis, Anthony).

I basically see three ways Giannis stays in Milwaukee next year: 1) a Billy King trade that works and at least gets GA to the Finals (and keeps all that future mortgaging cheap, at least for now), 2) money actually means far more to him than 'chips, or 3) he's really Dirk in disguise and will tolerate poor management with invincible loyalty and hope. Anything other than that, and he is gone. If we are going to be serious about pursuing him, I fear the Heat *far* more than Milwaukee.

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(10-13-2020, 06:56 PM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]In the past Mavs have been mentioned at the front of the line for player X, only to be standing in the wrong line.

That's happened just twice when we had ROY Luka, and we've never had 4th-in-MVP-voting Luka before now.

@"ItsGoTime" I know you don’t want them to pursue the cap space route, but try to look at the bright side: 

If they’re thinking cap space in 2021, they’re likely looking into guys on expiring deals right now with Wright, Powell, #18, you name it. I would think your guys OPJ and Oubre are both fairly high on that list. If they could pull something off for someone like that, I would think re-signing them, along with THJ, would be a fairly palatable fall back option.

This is from a roundtable discussion on The Ringer where they talk about several things.  This last section is about trades.  I thought it was instructive on three fronts.  1.  It names names that we talk about here a lot.  Hield goes for Horford.  Hield goes to the Lakers for Kuzma Plus.  Jrue for Dipo.  Jrue to Denver.  Beal to Denver.  2.  Everyone is trying to trade to IMPROVE.  We (collectively) think Hardaway’s expiring deal has value and 18 has value, but it doesn’t IMPROVE our proposed trade partners most of the time.  It just gives them cap relief and a lottery ticket.  Even Chicago fans think OPJ is going to get them IMPROVEMENT.  3.  Denver is scary.  Porter plus Harris can bring a much better return to a team that is already ahead of us.

What’s one made-up trade you desperately want to see?

[b]Mahoney: [/b]Chris Paul to the Bucks. I’m not yet sold on the trade logistics (Can Milwaukee really include enough to make this worth OKC’s while?), but the idea itself is pretty captivating. Paul has a way of agitating the dynamics of every playoff series he’s involved in. That’s welcome in an already competitive Eastern Conference field, and especially for a Bucks team that could use his half-court playmaking as much as his edge.

[b]Devine: [/b]Victor Oladipo and T.J. Leaf to New Orleans; Jrue Holiday to Indiana.Honestly, I don’t really care too much about the “who says no?” or on-court specifics of this one. It’d just be rad to see all three Holiday brothers play together.

[b]Verrier:[/b] Bradley Beal to the Nuggets for Michael Porter Jr. and Gary Harris. If Jamal Murray can approximate his I-can’t-feel-my-face playoff run next regular season, Denver shouldn’t wait for Porter to catch up. Beal-Murray-Jokic would instantly become the best Big Three in basketball, and vault the Nuggets from a fun young upstart to a serious title contender on the level of the Lakers and Clippers. 
[b]Dollinger: [/b]I want to see what Chris Paul can do with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Not just setting him up on the court, but instilling his edge and tenacity in the Bucks star. I’d also love to see that team play James Harden just for kicks[b].[/b]

[b]Tjarks: [/b]Al Horford for Buddy Hield. Philly gets a shooter who wants out of Sacramento while Sacramento gets a stretch 5 whom it can pair with Marvin Bagley III.

[b]Uggetti: [/b]Jrue Holiday and JJ Redick to the Nuggets for Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr., and whatever else is needed to make it work. The Nuggets are legit and adding Holiday to that group would flat-out make them contenders. He would slot in perfectly next to both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, immediately be the anchor to their struggling defense, and give them a better third option than what they currently have. Getting JJ in that deal would be the chef’s kiss: a knockdown shooter that I can already see working perfectly in tandem with Jokic. On the other side, we get MPJ and Zion on the same team, #blessed. 


[b]O’Shaughnessy:[/b] Paolo Uggetti to the baseball beat. Kidding. (Am I?) Second place is relieving Buddy Hield from his misery under Luke Walton in Sacramento by sending him directly south. Because Hield signed an extension, there’s no clean salary swap for him to become a Laker. Here’s a thorough explainer from [i]Bleacher Report[/i]’s Eric Pincus on how a poison pill contract works in a trade. The basics are this: It would probably take Kyle Kuzma and a third-party team. Rob Pelinka needs to pounce on situations like Hield’s—a disillusioned player the Lakers usually wouldn’t have the pieces to trade for becomes available at a reduced price because he wants to leave—because his options are otherwise limited.

In other words, what if they can get a group together that feels like they are playing for the possibility of long term money in Dallas, but who doesn’t close the door on 2021 cap space? I feel like that could be done.

EDIT: Whoops, Dan snuck in a post on me. This was meant to combine with my last one.

(10-13-2020, 03:43 PM)haveitall Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/NBATheJump/status/13...0779614208

To have enough space in a $109mm cap world and assuming we make our picks and keep the minimal hold on WCS and don’t spend the MLE on a multi-year guy, the cost of Giannis cap space in 2021 is:

THJ
Wright
Any value it might take to move Wright
Maxi 

THJ expires.  Maxi, if healthy, is easily traded (probably to the Bucks).  The question is whether you deal Wright for an expiring player now or take the chance you have to find a taker with cap room in 2020.

One other thing to point out is S&T’s can be guaranteed for only one year (but have to be three years).  So, we are stuck with making trades just for expiring players.  We can do a Wright deal for a Free Agent if the FA’s team is willing to take Wright and the Free Agent is willing to take only one year guaranteed.  Thankfully, in the economics of 2020, some predict there will be players willing to take such a deal and push their free agency to 2021.

Re: Dan's last post: so in other words, it's incumbent on us to keep our picks so that we have trade assets in the future? Got it. Nail the picks, sign a vet min guy or two to help us out a bit, and otherwise stay the course. Wow, are we banking on internal improvement, or what? That's what I'm thinking this offseason looks like. I still hope we trade up. I will be surprised if this point if Wright is gone this offseason (you read that right), but I hope they can raise his trade value over the course of the season, because we're going to need his salary space. Once again, I am 100% out on packaging Wright and other stuff with #18 as the sweetener for an expirer unless it's a needle mover. That's the extreme version of Plan Powder to me - mortgage the draft to free up space as opposed to looking to actually improve the team.

(10-13-2020, 08:39 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-13-2020, 03:43 PM)haveitall Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/NBATheJump/status/13...0779614208

To have enough space in a $109mm cap world and assuming we make our picks and keep the minimal hold on WCS and don’t spend the MLE on a multi-year guy, the cost of Giannis cap space in 2021 is:

THJ
Wright
Any value it might take to move Wright
Maxi 

THJ expires.  Maxi, if healthy, is easily traded (probably to the Bucks).  The question is whether you deal Wright for an expiring player now or take the chance you have to find a taker with cap room in 2020.

One other thing to point out is S&T’s can be guaranteed for only one year (but have to be three years).  So, we are stuck with making trades just for expiring players.  We can do a Wright deal for a Free Agent if the FA’s team is willing to take Wright and the Free Agent is willing to take only one year guaranteed.  Thankfully, in the economics of 2020, some predict there will be players willing to take such a deal and push their free agency to 2021.

A Powell stretch-waive could come in handy if he can't be moved. That along with dumping Wright (I would probably wait until the TDL before moving) would put Dallas at $30M in cap room. Should be fairly easy to create a max slot from there without giving up Maxi.

(10-13-2020, 08:46 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Re: Dan's last post: so in other words, it's incumbent on us to keep our picks so that we have trade assets in the future? Got it. Nail the picks, sign a vet min guy or two to help us out a bit, and otherwise stay the course. Wow, are we banking on internal improvement, or what? That's what I'm thinking this offseason looks like. I still hope we trade up. I will be surprised if this point if Wright is gone this offseason (you read that right), but I hope they can raise his trade value over the course of the season, because we're going to need his salary space. Once again, I am 100% out on packaging Wright and other stuff with #18 as the sweetener for an expirer unless it's a needle mover. That's the extreme version of Plan Powder to me - mortgage the draft to free up space as opposed to looking to actually improve the team.

I don’t know it if it is incumbent on us to keep the picks or not.  Just pointing out the math.  If someone could tell me if Giannis signs his max this off-season or gets traded now or at the TDL, I could give a better idea of what is incumbent on us.  Too many unknowns.  We don’t know the Mav’s plans.  We don’t know GA’s plans and we don’t know what Milwaukee will do if this or that happens.

I’m less enthusiastic about the value of #18 than you, but in terms of what qualifies as a “needle mover”, the needle mover is Giannis if this is indeed the path they decide to take.  I suspect you can move Wright for an expiring contract who also can’t play.  But, if you want an expiring contract who can contribute, you might have to sweeten the deal.  

I do see value in moving up because Milwaukee could certainly panic at the TDL and the better the pedigree of the player we draft, the more attractive we are as a trade partner.  We can’t match the offers of others, but we can at least provide some value if GA were to pull an AD and name us as his preferred team.

I’m starting to think similarly about Wright (or at least am open to it).  Giving up assets to move him hurts our flexibility.  The risk of not clearing the decks is you can’t clear the decks when you have to.  But, clearing them too early costs assets that might be needed for Plan B or Plan C.

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(10-13-2020, 09:04 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]A Powell stretch-waive could come in handy if he can't be moved. That along with dumping Wright (I would probably until the TDL before moving) would put Dallas at $30M in cap room. Should be fairly easy to create a max slot from there without giving up Maxi.

Interesting and creative thought.  Let's ignore the will they or won't they part for a moment and just do the math.

I come up with $27.5mm in space and we need $32.7mm.  I'm carrying Powell's S/W at $4.4mm and putting the proper number of minimum holds in place including one to replace Wright.  Plus I'm paying 18 and 31 and keeping WCS's cap hold.  You only pick up $1.4mm by getting rid of Willie vs. a minimum slot and the value of being able to pay him much more later is pretty high IMHO.

So, we need to get rid of $5.2mm.  If Milwaukee is willing to take DFS you are there as you account for one less minimum slot in a trade than you do in an outright signing.  If it has to be an outright signing it is either DFS plus WCS or DFS plus Brunson or  DFW plus #18 or Curry or Maxi.  Bottom line is another significant player has to go which makes the cost THJ, Wright, Powell and something else of significance.  Not sure it isn't better to just give up Maxi.

(10-13-2020, 09:07 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-13-2020, 09:04 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]A Powell stretch-waive could come in handy if he can't be moved. That along with dumping Wright (I would probably until the TDL before moving) would put Dallas at $30M in cap room. Should be fairly easy to create a max slot from there without giving up Maxi.

Interesting and creative thought.  Let's ignore the will they or won't they part for a moment and just do the math.

I come up with $27.5mm in space and we need $32.7mm.  I'm carrying Powell's S/W at $4.4mm and putting the proper number of minimum holds in place including one to replace Wright.  Plus I'm paying 18 and 31 and keeping WCS's cap hold.  You only pick up $1.4mm by getting rid of Willie vs. a minimum slot and the value of being able to pay him much more later is pretty high IMHO.

So, we need to get rid of $5.2mm.  If Milwaukee is willing to take DFS you are there as you account for one less minimum slot in a trade than you do in an outright signing.  If it has to be an outright signing it is either DFS plus WCS or DFS plus Brunson or  DFW plus #18 or Curry or Maxi.  Bottom line is another significant player has to go which makes the cost THJ, Wright, Powell and something else of significance.  Not sure it isn't better to just give up Maxi.

Interesting concept...especially since stretch waiving Powell wouldn't prohibit him from resigning in Dallas for the minimum that year if he isn’t claimed by another team...

I’m not convinced Powell is completely unmovable yet. I think it’s possible that if he plays the first half of the season they’ll be able to give him away at the deadline, provided they don’t expect anything in return.

(10-13-2020, 08:26 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]@"ItsGoTime" I know you don’t want them to pursue the cap space route, but try to look at the bright side: 

If they’re thinking cap space in 2021, they’re likely looking into guys on expiring deals right now with Wright, Powell, #18, you name it. I would think your guys OPJ and Oubre are both fairly high on that list. If they could pull something off for someone like that, I would think re-signing them, along with THJ, would be a fairly palatable fall back option.

This was immediately what I was thinking of when hearing about them wanting no long term money. Perfect expiring in OPJ!!

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I mean, I don't get why they don't have the confidence in themselves to just sign guys to reasonable deals so when the "star" finally does say yes, it's an easy solution to get the money for them. But that's the date we brought I guess and it ain't changing anytime soon unfortunately (not saying I want to rid the team of Donnie, just want his focus changed and for MC to bring in another guy who would have that confidence.).

(10-13-2020, 09:07 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]I’m starting to think similarly about Wright (or at least am open to it).  Giving up assets to move him hurts our flexibility.

YES. I am 100% out on moving Wright just to move him. Only move him this off season if he brings a clear roster improvement. 

NOTE: I am also in the small minority probably that thinks Wright can be moved without attaching assets. I think he still has value somewhere. His fit here is poor, his fit in other places is not.

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(10-13-2020, 09:48 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I’m not convinced Powell is completely unmovable yet.

YES. I think we as fans too quickly get either high or low on our own players. DP will have value. He is NOT "dead money."

(10-13-2020, 09:07 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-13-2020, 09:04 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]A Powell stretch-waive could come in handy if he can't be moved. That along with dumping Wright (I would probably until the TDL before moving) would put Dallas at $30M in cap room. Should be fairly easy to create a max slot from there without giving up Maxi.

Interesting and creative thought.  Let's ignore the will they or won't they part for a moment and just do the math.

I come up with $27.5mm in space and we need $32.7mm.  I'm carrying Powell's S/W at $4.4mm and putting the proper number of minimum holds in place including one to replace Wright.  Plus I'm paying 18 and 31 and keeping WCS's cap hold.  You only pick up $1.4mm by getting rid of Willie vs. a minimum slot and the value of being able to pay him much more later is pretty high IMHO.

So, we need to get rid of $5.2mm.  If Milwaukee is willing to take DFS you are there as you account for one less minimum slot in a trade than you do in an outright signing.  If it has to be an outright signing it is either DFS plus WCS or DFS plus Brunson or  DFW plus #18 or Curry or Maxi.  Bottom line is another significant player has to go which makes the cost THJ, Wright, Powell and something else of significance.  Not sure it isn't better to just give up Maxi.

In that scenario I see $79.3M committed and $29.8M in cap space. I think the difference in our numbers is due to the minimum cap holds. If the minimum scale stays flat, I believe that keeps it at only $898,310.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/magic...ure-plans/

Lakers are at the head of the line for Luka Doncic.     

SO it begins.