MavsBoard

(10-28-2020, 12:40 PM)jesusshuttlesworth82 Wrote: [ -> ]has this Hawks "insider" accurately predicted any other moves?

He's not an insider, but he seems to know one. Honestly, no moves of any kind have happened since we discovered him, and he hasn't "predicted" anything. He's just relaying info that he's hearing about what teams are TRYING to accomplish. Almost all of it has made a lot of sense to me, so far. 

I'm not saying Hayward is going to happen, just that it is something that makes sense as far as a Mavericks target. It also makes sense that he'd want to play here, especially since we don't know the numbers involved. As soon as one wraps their head around the idea that the goal is to sign and trade him (so in other words, NOT bring him in for one year only) then a lot of other tumblers fall into place. 

• He fits what the Mavs have consistently looked for (see the secondary playmaker argument I've been making since I found this place).
  
• He seems to be the kind of PERSON the Mavs generally like.
  
• It makes total sense that a guy like that would WANT to be here.
  
• His past few years have been so unlucky, health wise, I can easily see he and the Mavericks agreeing on a contract for less than the max (how much is anyone's guess). The longer term security would obviously be a goal, in his specific situation. 
  
• If Boston has decided they want to move on, it makes TOTAL sense that they'd allow him to negotiate with teams, because they need to get SOMETHING back. There's no resetting the roster anytime soon in Boston, so they are an over the cap team now. 
  
• I'm not sure the Mavs would put together the best offer in a trade, but that's irrelevant. In a sign and trade scenario, the first step is to find a match between the player and new team on terms of the contract. Then, new team and old team try to decide what it's worth for old team to facilitate.
  

Basically, if Boston wants Hayward back, this won't work. 

If they don't want him back, Dallas would have to be willing to pay him enough, whatever that is, to get him to sign for 3-4 years. MAYBE this means paying him MORE than what any other team is willing to offer, but maybe not. Maybe he has Dallas on a list of 2-3 teams he'd prefer, and there are other factors involved. So, Dallas might only be competing with a few other teams, not the whole league. Indiana is likely a competitor, for example, but they're not idiots. I would think they'd have a top price in mind, too.  A team like Charlotte (just an example) might throw a max at him just to try to sell tickets, but he'd still have to want to play there. He seems to be a smart dude. 

Then, you throw in @"Tyler"'s interesting thought that they might be willing to take a step back overall for next year to get it done in order to maintain some level of flexibility...not entirely convinced their interest would hinge on that, but it sure is interesting, and I can see cheap/helpful guys like Curry/DFS/Kleber/Boban/WCS looking pretty damn good to Boston for the simple task of letting a player sign elsewhere. 

This is one of the rare things we talk about that seems to make MORE sense the longer I think about it. Not sure this specific thing will happen, but THIS is the level of deal I've been hoping for these past months.

(10-28-2020, 12:18 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2020, 11:59 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Remember y'all if 33 yr old Horford can get a 100 million dollars last year

I am trying to remember....did something happen in this past year where things might be different and the NBA market might have changed since Horford got that deal?

Okay but the cap is flat from last year right, it didn't go down? If there is cap space teams will spend it. Ask NYK.

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(10-28-2020, 12:23 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2020, 11:59 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]If Gordon Hayward opts out then this doesn't really matter. I imagine he goes to a team willing to pay him a big pile of money.

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Remember y'all if 33 yr old Horford can get a 100 million dollars last year, then younger, better Hayward can certainly get more money and control where he goes. He knows if he opts-in he's going to get traded.

So, the rumor is that Hayward WANTS to sign in Dallas. I don't think it's nearly the impossibility you paint with the above. They'd want him, and Boston has reason to look to move on, but would benefit from trying to do so in a way that helps them. I'm not saying it will happen, but I can EASILY see it working IF it's true that all three parties are interested.

So I think you would need Gordon communicating that he is opting out and thus having leverage over the Celtics. If he opts in he has no leverage really. If he opts out and wants to play for Dallas then I guess Dallas could see if they could negotiate a deal with the Celtics that they like better than just getting cap back for Hayward. In that scenario a THJ/Maxi package could look better than just cap savings which have no real benefit for them this year anyway.

I like Hayward as a player, I wouldn't want to give up Maxi though. I do think he's an upgrade over THJ but not such an upgrade that I'd want to give him a big contract and give up pieces to get him.

I still like plan Home-Dipo the best. I think Mavs have the ammunition to get him and he's a good fit on this team.

(10-28-2020, 01:23 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So I think you would need Gordon communicating that he is opting out and thus having leverage over the Celtics. If he opts in he has no leverage really. If he opts out and wants to play for Dallas then I guess Dallas could see if they could negotiate a deal with the Celtics that they like better than just getting cap back for Hayward. In that scenario a THJ/Maxi package could look better than just cap savings which have no real benefit for them this year anyway.

So this is part of the "leverage" picture, but not all of it.

What if:

• Hayward and his agent have a price in mind on a 3-4 year deal.
  
• Boston likes him, but doesn't want to pay him that price.
  
• Understanding the two points above, Hayward's agent knows that Boston will look to trade his expiring contract the second he opts in. The whole world suspects this.
  
• But, Hayward doesn't WANT to go to "wherever" they'd send him, especially since there's a chance the new team would view him simply as a stepping stone to cap space, or even worse - simply reducing payroll. If he cares about basketball AT ALL, I'd say he's at a point in his career where this uncertainty would bother him. At the very least, it's potentially a waste of a full year of his career. I think we, as fans, tend to gloss over how much these guys must HATE being traded. 
  
• If Hayward can't get the deal he wants from Boston, he could opt in, get traded, whatever, then hit the market in 2021. But, what if it's true that his agent thinks the right teams are interested NOW, and without other free agents distracting them the way they might next season. What if ONE of those teams (not Dallas) CAN offer a healthy contract without doing a sign and trade? 
  
• Remind yourself, again, that this guy is the definition of a dude who's likely looking to sign a 3-4 year deal at his FIRST possible opportunity. 
  

See how Hayward does have a LITTLE leverage here? It's literally called a "player option." There's a limited window of time to decide, obviously. Again, the second Boston offers him a new contract he likes, this dream ends. But, if he's truly willing to OPT OUT instead of letting them trade him "wherever," he does have ample leverage. 

I'm telling you, IF Dallas is willing to pay him more than Boston and he WANTS to play here, there's a decent chance this could be a fit between all three parties. All we know for absolute certain is that the deal would have to be more than $34 million TOTAL, otherwise he'd just opt in. No brainer. I'd think it would have to quite a bit more, tbh. Three years at $20 million per? Total speculation, but I can understand how Dallas would pay that and Boston wouldn't.

https://twitter.com/ChrisBHaynes/status/...7759079424

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https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1321534246373232642

(10-28-2020, 01:52 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2020, 01:23 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So I think you would need Gordon communicating that he is opting out and thus having leverage over the Celtics. If he opts in he has no leverage really. If he opts out and wants to play for Dallas then I guess Dallas could see if they could negotiate a deal with the Celtics that they like better than just getting cap back for Hayward. In that scenario a THJ/Maxi package could look better than just cap savings which have no real benefit for them this year anyway.

So this is part of the "leverage" picture, but not all of it.

What if:

• Hayward and his agent have a price in mind on a 3-4 year deal.
  
• Boston likes him, but doesn't want to pay him that price.
  
• Understanding the two points above, Hayward's agent knows that Boston will look to trade his expiring contract the second he opts in. The whole world suspects this.
  
• But, Hayward doesn't WANT to go to "wherever" they'd send him, especially since there's a chance the new team would view him simply as a stepping stone to cap space, or even worse - simply reducing payroll. If he cares about basketball AT ALL, I'd say he's at a point in his career where this uncertainty would bother him. At the very least, it's potentially a waste of a full year of his career. I think we, as fans, tend to gloss over how much these guys must HATE being traded. 
  
• If Hayward can't get the deal he wants from Boston, he could opt in, get traded, whatever, then hit the market in 2021. But, what if it's true that his agent thinks the right teams are interested NOW, and without other free agents distracting them the way they might next season. What if ONE of those teams (not Dallas) CAN offer a healthy contract without doing a sign and trade? 
  
• Remind yourself, again, that this guy is the definition of a dude who's likely looking to sign a 3-4 year deal at his FIRST possible opportunity. 
  

See how Hayward does have a LITTLE leverage here? It's literally called a "player option." There's a limited window of time to decide, obviously. Again, the second Boston offers him a new contract he likes, this dream ends. But, if he's truly willing to OPT OUT instead of letting them trade him "wherever," he does have ample leverage. 

I'm telling you, IF Dallas is willing to pay him more than Boston and he WANTS to play here, there's a decent chance this could be a fit between all three parties. All we know for absolute certain is that the deal would have to be more than $34 million TOTAL, otherwise he'd just opt in. No brainer. I'd think it would have to quite a bit more, tbh. Three years at $20 million per? Total speculation, but I can understand how Dallas would pay that and Boston wouldn't.

Right as I said he has leverage if he is opting out and none if he is opting in. I don't know why he'd give up 14 mil in that first year. sure he would make more for the length of the contract but people tend to overestimate how much of a discount these guys are willing to give up in order to get more guaranteed years. I doubt he would go from 34 in 2020 to 20.

(10-28-2020, 02:40 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Right as I said he has leverage if he is opting out and none if he is opting in. I don't know why he'd give up 14 mil in that first year. sure he would make more for the length of the contract but people tend to overestimate how much of a discount these guys are willing to give up in order to get more guaranteed years. I doubt he would go from 34 in 2020 to 20.

There's some truth to this. I was just throwing the $60 million total out, as it's almost twice as much guaranteed money as he has now, but it might not be enough. I think you're overlooking the potential other factors, such as him having his choice of where he wants to play. 

But, let me get this out of the way: The people who are wondering whether Hayward is a fit here right now will HATE this, if it happens, because it's probably going to be a bigger contract than what we're imagining.

Does Boston have heart and send Hayward where he wants to go due to the Stevens relationship? Does Ainge feel like he owes us a solid? What's the least we can pay for Hayward. I don't think Boston is going to be interested in our draft picks. I don't really like the idea of giving up both Curry and Maxi.

https://twitter.com/KevinOConnorNBA/stat...9681568768

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Bobby Marks of ESPN:

Quote:The teams I’ve talked to have said that the cap will be no lower than 109. That is what they’ve been assured. It will be no lower than 109. It could be 111.

(10-28-2020, 02:50 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2020, 02:40 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Right as I said he has leverage if he is opting out and none if he is opting in. I don't know why he'd give up 14 mil in that first year. sure he would make more for the length of the contract but people tend to overestimate how much of a discount these guys are willing to give up in order to get more guaranteed years. I doubt he would go from 34 in 2020 to 20.

There's some truth to this. I was just throwing the $60 million total out, as it's almost twice as much guaranteed money as he has now, but it might not be enough. I think you're overlooking the potential other factors, such as him having his choice of where he wants to play. 

But, let me get this out of the way: The people who are wondering whether Hayward is a fit here right now will HATE this, if it happens, because it's probably going to be a bigger contract than what we're imagining.

Ya'll can show me some examples where someone gave up a lot of year 1 guaranteed money to get years added on. I don't recall seeing that scenario play out. People thought Barnes would take a big paycut for more guaranteed years and it didn't happen. I think his opt-in dollars and first year deal with the Kings were very close (maybe the same?). Why give up that guaranteed money? Players generally just play out that last year then worry ab their next contract next year.

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As it relates to Hayward, would he take a haircut in year one for a 100+ million dollar deal? Maybe so but it's not going to be a big drop.

@"StepBackJay"

If the agent believes an opportunity for a long term deal NOW is better than what the opportunity might be NEXT YEAR, for literally any reason (this is what was written that got us talking) then there's a number that would motivate him to make that choice. We don't know what that number is, and you might be right that it's A LOT. 

With his recent injury history, I can easily see Hayward adopting the security mindset (guaranteed total for years) over the "maximize each new eligibility milestone" method recently popularized by Lebron and Klutch. This was conventional wisdom up until about 10 years ago. 

Assume that he cares more about raising the "worst case scenario" floor of the next 3-5 years (total) than he cares about maximizing the financial potential of the 2020-2021 season, and it will make sense. If you're Lebron, you're right not to think that way. If you're Gordon Hayward, maybe not so much.

I had to rest 48 hours just to find the strength to write an argument, why I want nothing to do with somebody, who is 30 years old, injury-prone, averaging 17/6/4 and would have to opt out of a 34M dollar contract. Oh also Danny Ainge.

(10-28-2020, 06:26 PM)Mavs2019 Wrote: [ -> ]I had to rest 48 hours just to find the strength to write an argument, why I want nothing to do with somebody, who is 30 years old, injury-prone, averaging 17/6/4 and would have to opt out of a 34M dollar contract. Oh also Danny Ainge.

Lol. 

Definitely an accurate portrayal of all the negatives involved. I can't say the above isn't valid. But, idk...I just think his game fits into this situation so well. But, yes, the injuries have to be considered.

(10-28-2020, 01:52 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]What if:

• Hayward and his agent have a price in mind on a 3-4 year deal.
  
• Boston likes him, but doesn't want to pay him that price.
  
• What if ONE of those teams (not Dallas) CAN offer a healthy contract without doing a sign and trade? 
  
• Remind yourself, again, that this guy is the definition of a dude who's likely looking to sign a 3-4 year deal at his FIRST possible opportunity. 
  

See how Hayward does have a LITTLE leverage here? It's literally called a "player option." 

I think you have the leverage equation right.  It doesn't have to be Dallas that poses the credible threat.  It can be anyone.

I think we generally know the S&T rules.  Another way of doing this that isn't well known is an E&T (extend and trade).  Hayward would opt in with the understanding Boston would extend him and trade him to Dallas once the new season started.  Extend and Trades have to be 3 years...so 20/21 would be for the current contract value and there would be two more years negotiated between Dallas and Hayward.  It is good for the player in that he keeps his guaranteed money.  It is good for Dallas in that they get to determine what they are willing to pay in 21 and 22 (Luka's last cheap year).

One issue with doing a deal after 19/20 turns to 20/21 is THJ/Maxi misses the match by about $49k.  Maybe Boston (or a third team) would take THJ/Wright and send Boston the center they want.  Remember, Boston has draft capital to help smooth any deal with a third team.

https://twitter.com/dallasmavs/status/13...1222342658

Advertising trade assets?...

https://media.giphy.com/media/xTcf1gUpg8.../giphy.gif

(10-28-2020, 08:37 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2020/10...dcast.html

I thought about the Indiana rumors while we were discussing this earlier. 

Hollinger said in a podcast a while back that all of the info in the press gets leaked from either the team or agents. He said when TEAMS do it, 99% of the time it's false, designed to get another team worried about their target disappearing. It's meant to motivate them to hand over that last 2nd round pick, soften up the protections of a 1st rounder that's changing hands, whatever. It's designed to get a deal over the finish line. 

In this scenario that's happening now, it's clear that someone is trying to influence someone else in regards to Hayward. Not sure if the Indiana rumors are leaking to push Dallas, or vice versa, but I think Lowe is right about there being something going on.

(10-28-2020, 08:44 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Not sure if the Indiana rumors are leaking to push Dallas, or vice versa, but I think Lowe is right about there being something going on.

Or BOTH are to push BOS up in an offer or extension?