(09-21-2020, 06:48 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]I would still love to see them do so well this offseason as to be able to bring him off the bench if he stays another year. If all they want him to do is expire (or sign for way less next summer) and not trade him, there's no harm in that. I just don't see a path to two new starters (Luka, KP, and DFS stay in the starting lineup) without trading THJ, although I still think that if they nail the draft and can get a good rental with the MLE, that would still be better than the season-end situation. And no, please no Powell back in the starting lineup. He likely wouldn't be back until midseason anyway, and will have a lot of rust as he comes back.
He didn't do well off the bench for what it's worth altho that doesn't mean he could be good off the bench in the future. I think you can get two good quality players this year. 1 with pick(s) + Wright/Jackson, 1 with MLE.
I saw you posted Jrue Holiday as a target and I would love him but so would every team. I have come to the realization that Jrue is going to fetch a large haul for the Pels. Oladipo is going to get a great return. 90 yr old CP3 is probably going to fetch a good return (WTF)!
THJ + picks could get you something, I am not sure whatever that is that would be better than THJ + something else (ie picks + Wright/Jackson). What I am saying is that your net result either THJ + player from the Wright/18 trade is going to be better than just THJ + 18.
I am sure I have posted THJ + 18 for OPJ 10 times on this board and I wouldn't hate it I just doubt the Mavs will do it. I would love THJ + 18 for Aaron Gordon which I also think the Mavs won't do. Even if they would I expect Gordon to fetch a nice haul if he is traded. THJ is valued more here than he is on the open market. I don't think there is a team that's like, man we need to get our hands on THJ. The guys to trade are Wright+Jackson and #18 gives you the opportunity to do that.
(09-21-2020, 07:04 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 06:48 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]I would still love to see them do so well this offseason as to be able to bring him off the bench if he stays another year. If all they want him to do is expire (or sign for way less next summer) and not trade him, there's no harm in that. I just don't see a path to two new starters (Luka, KP, and DFS stay in the starting lineup) without trading THJ, although I still think that if they nail the draft and can get a good rental with the MLE, that would still be better than the season-end situation. And no, please no Powell back in the starting lineup. He likely wouldn't be back until midseason anyway, and will have a lot of rust as he comes back.
He didn't do well off the bench for what it's worth altho that doesn't mean he could be good off the bench in the future. I think you can get two good quality players this year. 1 with pick(s) + Wright/Jackson, 1 with MLE.
I saw you posted Jrue Holiday as a target and I would love him but so would every team. I have come to the realization that Jrue is going to fetch a large haul for the Pels. Oladipo is going to get a great return. 90 yr old CP3 is probably going to fetch a good return (WTF)!
THJ + picks could get you something, I am not sure whatever that is that would be better than THJ + something else (ie picks + Wright/Jackson). What I am saying is that your net result either THJ + player from the Wright/18 trade is going to be better than just THJ + 18.
I am sure I have posted THJ + 18 for OPJ 10 times on this board and I wouldn't hate it I just doubt the Mavs will do it. I would love THJ + 18 for Aaron Gordon which I also think the Mavs won't do. Even if they would I expect Gordon to fetch a nice haul if he is traded. THJ is valued more here than he is on the open market. I don't think there is a team that's like, man we need to get our hands on THJ. The guys to trade are Wright+Jackson and #18 gives you the opportunity to do that.
His major defensive shortcomings make him a no-go as a starter if the Mavs are at all serious about next year, which they must be in order to avoid friction with the most coveted player in the league. As for #18, I would be very angry, tbqh, if the Mavs traded it for anything less than a starter. Don't underestimate the value of having a player on the rookie scale during Luka's rookie deal. Of course, if the Mavs draft someone and he's a bust, that would be a gigantic waste and you all can come back and feed me crow.
(09-21-2020, 05:55 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]We heard all about him being a chucker, yet he had excellent shot selection.
I just fundamentally disagree with this. When THJ first got to DAL, his shot selection was bad. And even into the playoff series against LAC there were multiple times a game where I thought he took bad shots. He got BETTER because he got so many wide open looks a game, but shot selection is not THJ's strong suit especially when he is not wide open.
(09-21-2020, 06:23 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]the Mavs need more from a starting wing. THJ is not really a 2nd or 3rd option and cannot carry the load when Luka is on the bench. He also is a bad defender.
Exactly this.
"His major defensive shortcomings make him a no-go as a starter if the Mavs are at all serious about next year, which they must be in order to avoid friction with the most coveted player in the league."
Scott, nothing is this black and white, not even the literal colors black and white.
They might bail on the dude, but I hate to see you set yourself for potential disappointment so blatantly.
Breathe. Luka staying here for his career is absolutely NOT dependent on whether or not THJ is a starter here next year.
Find myself capitalizing "NOT" too much, lately. Before you know it, I'll be writing like Dart. When was the last time we saw him?
Who would you target for the MLE? I’m only finding a few names worth the full $9.2 million.
1. Jerami Grant
2. Ibaka
3. Dragic
4. Crowder
5. DJJ
6. Millsap
Possibly none of those guys are even available. Not seeing anyone else to give it to in full
(09-21-2020, 09:22 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Who would you target for the MLE? I’m only finding a few names worth the full $9.2 million.
1. Jerami Grant
2. Ibaka
3. Dragic
4. Crowder
5. DJJ
6. Millsap
Possibly none of those guys are even available. Not seeing anyone else to give it to in full
Tbh, I'm finding it more difficult that normal to predict how far the MLE will even go this time around. I just don't have a sense for how some of these teams are going to handle the real-life situation, financially.
For example, any other year, I'd be sure Crowder was in the process of playing his way to a slight or even heavy overpay, likely to be regretted down the line. But, he might actually be an MLE target, especially since we know Miami is all in on 2021.
Anyway, I actually think ANY of the players you listed would help the team.
(09-21-2020, 09:22 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]1. Jerami Grant
2. Ibaka
3. Dragic
4. Crowder
5. DJJ
6. Millsap
Honestly? Not interested in giving the full MLE to ANY of those guys. I much prefer the trade market and draft this year.
(09-21-2020, 09:36 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 09:22 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]1. Jerami Grant
2. Ibaka
3. Dragic
4. Crowder
5. DJJ
6. Millsap
Honestly? Not interested in giving the full MLE to ANY of those guys. I much prefer the trade market and draft this year.
Not even Grant? I mean, I get that he's still far from a done deal, but the potential he flashes has me mesmerized. The right body, the right motor, the right skills. What don't you like about him.
I'd also like Crowder a lot, too.
(09-21-2020, 09:36 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 09:22 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]1. Jerami Grant
2. Ibaka
3. Dragic
4. Crowder
5. DJJ
6. Millsap
Honestly? Not interested in giving the full MLE to ANY of those guys. I much prefer the trade market and draft this year.
I prefer to do both. Worry about the cap when you actually have someone that is willing to come here in 2021.
(09-21-2020, 09:39 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Not even Grant? I mean, I get that he's still far from a done deal, but the potential he flashes has me mesmerized. The right body, the right motor, the right skills. What don't you like about him.
I like his size and I like his three point shooting. But when I look at the numbers, I am VERY concerned how much better DEN's (and even OKC's) defense is when Grant sits (both regular season and playoffs). His individual defense does not seem to be contributing to team success on defense. Paying full MLE for a guy who may not be a good defender? No thanks.
(09-21-2020, 09:54 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 09:39 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Not even Grant? I mean, I get that he's still far from a done deal, but the potential he flashes has me mesmerized. The right body, the right motor, the right skills. What don't you like about him.
I like his size and I like his three point shooting. But when I look at the numbers, I am VERY concerned how much better DEN's (and even OKC's) defense is when Grant sits (both regular season and playoffs). His individual defense does not seem to be contributing to team success on defense. Paying full MLE for a guy who may not be a good defender? No thanks.
That's fair. I've seen him affect games VERY positively on defense during these playoffs, but it's far from a consistent thing you can count on, so far.
(09-21-2020, 09:36 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 09:22 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]1. Jerami Grant
2. Ibaka
3. Dragic
4. Crowder
5. DJJ
6. Millsap
Honestly? Not interested in giving the full MLE to ANY of those guys. I much prefer the trade market and draft this year.
I think it will be very challenging to get anything sufficiently good in trade without including #18, which takes out the draft (unless you're confident that the Mavs can get a rotation player/soon-to-be-starter with #31). We need two new players at the very least - new starters would be nice. I don't see how the Mavs will improve much in terms of new players without using the MLE. If they do, it will be quite a work of wizardry by Donnie.
(09-21-2020, 09:40 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 09:36 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 09:22 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]1. Jerami Grant
2. Ibaka
3. Dragic
4. Crowder
5. DJJ
6. Millsap
Honestly? Not interested in giving the full MLE to ANY of those guys. I much prefer the trade market and draft this year.
I prefer to do both. Worry about the cap when you actually have someone that is willing to come here in 2021.
This too.
Don't want to speak for Kamm, because maybe I'm missing his point, but I think he's saying he doesn't want to rely on the plan of offering the full MLE to any ONE player, banking on them being an impact player, based on who's available.
Don't think he's saying "don't use the MLE."
Might be a good bet, because I still think they consider breaking off about half of it for Burke.
(09-21-2020, 10:01 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Don't want to speak for Kamm, because maybe I'm missing his point, but I think he's saying he doesn't want to rely on the plan of offering the full MLE to any ONE player, banking on them being an impact player, based on who's available.
Don't think he's saying "don't use the MLE."
Might be a good bet, because I still think they consider breaking off about half of it for Burke.
I like Burke a lot and have been in favor of keeping him, but on the other hand, we're going to have Brunson and Curry, and neither of those three should start (Brunson not due to a lack of talent, necessarily, but because of bad fit with Luka). If we load up RC with too many little guards, he's going to need to change shorts before every game. I think that if we keep Burke, it's going to be because we traded Brunson and/or Curry.
And we'll see how Kamm chimes in.
(09-21-2020, 09:33 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ] (09-21-2020, 09:22 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Who would you target for the MLE? I’m only finding a few names worth the full $9.2 million.
1. Jerami Grant
2. Ibaka
3. Dragic
4. Crowder
5. DJJ
6. Millsap
Possibly none of those guys are even available. Not seeing anyone else to give it to in full
Tbh, I'm finding it more difficult that normal to predict how far the MLE will even go this time around. I just don't have a sense for how some of these teams are going to handle the real-life situation, financially.
For example, any other year, I'd be sure Crowder was in the process of playing his way to a slight or even heavy overpay, likely to be regretted down the line. But, he might actually be an MLE target, especially since we know Miami is all in on 2021.
Anyway, I actually think ANY of the players you listed would help the team.
You’re totally right. Tough to predict how teams will react. If pre-covid a team like Houston will give away a 1st to stay under the tax line, what will teams do when there’s no fans at the stadiums and the cap stays the same? Only 1/3 of the league currently has more than the MLE available. Really need to highlight a team like San Antonio. Already $10 million over the cap. We’re about to find out which owners really care about winning(we never worry). Will playoff teams like the Magic and Pacers sell? Teams like Chicago already at $106 million will all need to lower payroll
I agree about not wanting three shrimps that all come off the bench, Scott. Totally.
The thing is, Burke does stuff that Curry can't do, which is why he went from unemployed to like 4th or 5th most important player on the team in the bubble.
Part of that is because Brunson was hurt, but part of it was just that my dude was playing REALLY well, and doing something nobody else on the team can do, except for Luka. I'd argue he does it quite a bit better than Brunson, whom I LOVE, due to his lethal mid-range game.
I agree with DanSchwartzman, that ideally, they'd want a BETTER version of Burke, as he could potentially have been on the best streak of his life. But, every time I try to identify that player, there are problems with him, either that I can see or that others bring to my attention. And, IF Burke can do what he did in the playoffs at far below the MLE, which is what I think he'll cost, that's yet another team friendly deal, no?
I think he, or someone like him, could potentially be 6th man of the year in this offense, and log a lot of minutes WITH Luka, too. I think that's important.
Long story short, I'd pull the trigger on him, provided I couldn't find a similar guy I like better, and I'd be willing to move on from Brunson, Curry or both to fill in other holes. It's not that I dislike those players, because I like them both a lot. I just think Burke's playmaking is next level, relative to them.
But Hell, maybe Brunson turns a corner this year. Wouldn't shock me.
(09-21-2020, 10:01 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Don't want to speak for Kamm, because maybe I'm missing his point, but I think he's saying he doesn't want to rely on the plan of offering the full MLE to any ONE player, banking on them being an impact player, based on who's available.
Don't think he's saying "don't use the MLE."
Might be a good bet, because I still think they consider breaking off about half of it for Burke.
Burke and Baynes splitting the MLE is something i could see if the decent players i listed aren’t available. Get someone in Burke to bring some bench scoring. Baynes setting the screens and banging down low so KP doesn’t need to be used as much in that way
(09-21-2020, 09:57 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I've seen him affect games VERY positively on defense during these playoffs
In the 16 playoff games for DEN this year:
Defensive Rating w/ Grant ON:
115.4
Def Rating w/ Grant OFF:
108.8
That is -6.6....but in fairness Jokic is -16.1 (!)...but the offense tanks without Jokic.
Sample size is small, but it was basically the same for Grant in the regular season. Makes me nervous.
Ok, so you'll probably hate this, Kamm, but my thinking is that Jokic is REALLY bad on defense.
He's GREAT on the glass. A man amongst boys. And, his defense seems to be better when he's playing hard. But, I think it's possible that it's bad enough to the point where it affects other players' numbers.
Totally agree that he's transcendent on offense, and in no way am I suggesting he's a dead end as the focal point of a team.
And, I can buy your conclusion on Grant.
But, I saw with my own eyes Grant have a better game guarding Kawhi (think it was game 5, but not 100% sure) than I've seen anyone have in years. I think the ability is in there, but I don't blame you for not wanting to bet the farm with so much on the line.
(09-21-2020, 10:08 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]he doesn't want to rely on the plan of offering the full MLE to any ONE player
This is correct.
I would rather split the MLE on a couple options than blow the whole thing on a player that isn't a sure thing. Get more value contracts on the team that are tradeable assets later.
On Burke:
1) I LOVED what he brought to the table in the playoffs, his fight, energy, and aggression were huge when Luka was on the bench. I cannot say enough about him. He was +16.0 (!!!!) in the playoffs. Mavs were DESTROYED when he didn't play.
2) I am also hesitant to have Curry/Burke/Brunson all at RC's disposal. I would rather choose two.
3) I think Burke gives the Mavs the option to include one of Curry/Brunson in a trade to get a wing (either trading up in the draft or getting one available on the trade market). I LOVE Curry, but for Vassell or OPJ or similar I am ready to part ways.
(09-21-2020, 10:40 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]so you'll probably hate this, Kamm, but my thinking is that Jokic is REALLY bad on defense.
So some more observations about DEN's dynamics in the playoffs:
1) Grant's DRating is better WITH Jokic than without. So Jokic isn't dragging Grant down.
2) Jokic + Milsap is the weak spot, both offensively and defensively. When those two have been together in the playoffs DEN has been at its worst.
Regular season:
1) Jokic + Milsap was one of the best combos.
2) Jokic + Grant was HORRIBLE.
3) Jokic was neutral defensively for the season (+0.1)
4) Grant had by far the worst DRating of the big minute guys. Basically every two man combo with Grant was the other player's worst two man combo. Yikes.
Take away?
1) I am still very nervous about Grant as a team defender.
2) The playoffs are just a different animal and are all about matchups. The combo of Jokic + Milsap is somehow being exposed in a way it wasn't in the regular season for instance. OR it is just noise and the dudes are just playing poorly together for this stretch.