(11-04-2020, 11:22 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Jrue is great. But yeah, we don't really have anything great. Our picks are meh, we don't have any youngsters with high upside. Besides, do we really want to give up all our assets for one player? Is something like THJ+Maxi (or DFS) and #18, #31 and 2025 FRP really worth it? I would rather take a shot with someone who has low value due to a bad season, high contract or injury.
I wouldn't do this either, but only because of age. If Holiday was the same player he is now, only 27, I'd be more inclined to pull the trigger. However, he probably wouldn't be available under those circumstances.
I DO think Holiday is a great fit here, so if they could somehow get him for less than what we expect they'd have to give up I'd be ecstatic.
I love seeing the trade rumors suddenly pick up overnight when nobody is paying attention.
![[Image: smile.png]](https://www.qabickcents.com/dallasbasketball/images/smilies/smile.png)
The interesting thing about Hayward and Jrue is that they're both expiring with a good likelihood of leaving their current teams. So IMO neither are your typical young talent and pick haul kinda deal. If anything, it feels to me like a situation where the agents work together to get their guys into good spots.
For example, THJ is in a similar spot in Dallas where he's a good player that Dallas most likely will let go in order to land a bigger name like Jrue. But interestingly, without Jrue THJ would fit into the Pelicans' lineup as the starting 2 like a charm. And a guy like Brunson would also have more value in NO in such a deal as the backup 1. So a deal of Jrue for THJ/Brunson would make a lot of sense for both teams in terms of roster fit, with THJ's agent negotiating now to figure out whether it makes more sense to opt in with an extension or opt out and S&T. Add 18 (a higher pick than most contenders have on hand), and IMO that's a pretty competitive offer.
Then with plan powder pretty much out the window, Dallas could turn their attention to swinging that deal for Hayward. I think that's totally doable if Hayward is serious about pushing Boston and Dallas is no longer worrying about hoarding cap space.
(11-04-2020, 12:06 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn't do this either, but only because of age. If Holiday was the same player he is now, only 27, I'd be more inclined to pull the trigger. However, he probably wouldn't be available under those circumstances.
I DO think Holiday is a great fit here, so if they could somehow get him for less than what we expect they'd have to give up I'd be ecstatic.
I think competition, which there will be plenty off, will drive his price up.
(11-04-2020, 12:08 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]For example, THJ is in a similar spot in Dallas where he's a good player that Dallas most likely will let go in order to land a bigger name like Jrue. But interestingly, without Jrue THJ would fit into the Pelicans' lineup as the starting 2 like a charm. And a guy like Brunson would also have more value in NO in such a deal as the backup 1. So a deal of Jrue for THJ/Brunson would make a lot of sense for both teams in terms of roster fit, with THJ's agent negotiating now to figure out whether it makes more sense to opt in with an extension or opt out and S&T. Add 18 (a higher pick than most contenders have on hand), and IMO that's a pretty competitive offer.
I am affraid this is a dream. If Denver decides to include Porter, there is no way our offer can be seen as competitive. If Brooklyn throws in LeVert and Allen we are again nowhere near. GSW could throw #2 and Min 2021 FRP if NOLA takes Wiggins. Wannabe contenders like Atlanta or Phoenix have high picks, young players, cap space, you name it. Unfortunately I can't see a scenario where Jrue would slip through at a low price. NOLA will certainly shop him hard. They got a fortune for Davis despite him making clear he will only play for Lakers.
Besides, I am very sure JRue will be traded with the agreement that he signs an extension. So unless he starts publicly claiming how he only wants to be (for example) in Miami, his price will remain very high.
(11-04-2020, 12:26 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Besides, I am very sure JRue will be traded with the agreement that he signs an extension. So unless he starts publicly claiming how he only wants to be (for example) in Miami, his price will remain very high.
True, but any hesitance to sign an extension can also depress offers. Personally, I don't see him rushing to commit to Atlanta, Phoenix, or even Brooklyn (seriously, Kyrie and Durant are toxic). But we'll see!
Forget that fact that this doesn't seem possible, might not be the best scenario, and Jrue is the wrong age (or is he...vet presence), the money isn't ideal, etc.
This would just be fun:
Luka
Jrue
you pick the 3&D, maybe DFS
Hayward
KP
Learning, growing, contributing with the bench: Nesmith
We might be looking at a very interesting offseason afterall. Players rumored to be traded (lloking only at larger contracts): Hayward, Oladipo, JRue, CP3, Hield, Wiggins, Bledsoe and Schroeder.
Players that make sense to be traded: DeRozan, Horford, Aldridge, A.Gordon, Oubre,
Quote:A recent report indicated that about 10 teams had already inquired on the former All-Star, with the Nuggets expected to be among his most aggressive suitors. I’d expect the Nets, Mavericks, Heat, Timberwolves, and several others to have interest as well, though some of those clubs are better equipped than others to put together an appealing package.
https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1324035628389011456
What's the biggest deal people would be willing to give Hayward? 4/$100?
worth it? or keep looking for a better #3 guy?
With friends like Ainge, who needs enemies.
https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1324...11456?s=20
I was testing to see if that tweet was visible. I cannot see it in Light mode.
No good in Dark mode. Now I can't see any tweets, just the header. Anyone else having that issue?
I don’t think Jrue is within our reach.
To me, a trade this off-season is more likely to be one of the high dollar forwards from among Gallo, Hayward, Griffin and Tobias. I do agree with the thought that Ainge and Donnie have a good relationship and all. But, Hayward would need to want to come here IMHO to take advantage of that. Isn’t it funny how Dallas and Indy seem to always be in the conversation for the same guys. It is hard to imagine an opt out for Hayward to get where he wants to go, but that is always out there.
Gallo has some leverage as to where he goes, but OKC has to be satisfied. It doesn’t have to be a fair deal. It just has to be better than losing Gallo for nothing.
You would think you’d get something for taking on Griffin or Tobias. Both would also be a way of unloading unwanted contracts (assuming the team believes it has unwanted contracts). Given the length of the Harris deal, you probably get more for taking him on (Thybulle?). I’m not sure how to price a Griffin deal. He expires before Luka’s big pay day, so less risk than Harris financially, but more injury risk. But, Detroit has so little to offer that it is hard to envision what they would add to a deal (unless Dallas had a path to move to 10-12 making a trade down easier for Detroit).
(11-04-2020, 03:45 PM)jesusshuttlesworth82 Wrote: [ -> ]What's the biggest deal people would be willing to give Hayward? 4/$100?
worth it? or keep looking for a better #3 guy?
Worth it to me, if you think the health issues are behind him. I can understand why some would be hesitant to do that, but I just think he has everything they're hoping to get in a 3rd guy.
I know everyone knows this already because I have been less than subtle about it, but I wouldn't touch Harris or Griffin with a 10 ft pole. Hayward, yes. Gallinari, maybe.
(11-04-2020, 04:32 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]But, Detroit has so little to offer that it is hard to envision what they would add to a deal
Since they are rebuilding, I don't think they would be willing to add anything. I think they would expect compensation or no deal
Tim Cato piece below. Mainly deals involving THJ that maintain cap room for some guy who will be free a year from now. The deals are for Dipo, Hayward and OPJ (the only truly impactful 3&D starter Tim sees as available this off-season).
Interesting deal was Delon + 18 for expiring Rose. Plan HIBW's:
"In his career’s second life, Rose has turned into the secondary creator this team could use. He’s the better Trey Burke we’ve written about. Detroit doesn’t need him, and Rose is on an expiring contract. He makes your team better for a year while you shed salary. It’s a smart move within the context of what I think the Mavericks might be trying to accomplish."
https://theathletic.com/2178045/2020/11/...s-pursuit/
(11-04-2020, 06:02 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Tim Cato piece below. Mainly deals involving THJ that maintain cap room for some guy who will be free a year from now. The deals are for Dipo, Hayward and OPJ (the only truly impactful 3&D starter Tim sees as available this off-season).
Interesting deal was Delon + 18 for expiring Rose. Plan HIBW's:
"In his career’s second life, Rose has turned into the secondary creator this team could use. He’s the better Trey Burke we’ve written about. Detroit doesn’t need him, and Rose is on an expiring contract. He makes your team better for a year while you shed salary. It’s a smart move within the context of what I think the Mavericks might be trying to accomplish."
https://theathletic.com/2178045/2020/11/...s-pursuit/
It makes a lot of sense, and I still hate it.
Here's an idea for @"DanSchwartzman", @"omahen" or any other cap/fantasy trade types to kick around (I haven't even thought about the cap math). Let's assume for a second that Boston is interested in Jrue Holiday.
Is there a 3 team scenario that makes Hayward to Dallas easier?
Or, could Dallas glom onto that and end up with Kemba Walker, somehow? I just keep coming back to the idea that every time Dallas does something exciting it comes completely out of left field.
(11-04-2020, 06:04 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Here's an idea for @DanSchwartzman, @omahen or any other cap/fantasy trade types to kick around (I haven't even thought about the cap math). Let's assume for a second that Boston is interested in Jrue Holiday.
Is there a 3 team scenario that makes Hayward to Dallas easier?
Or, could Dallas glom onto that and end up with Kemba Walker, somehow? I just keep coming back to the idea that every time Dallas does something exciting it comes completely out of left field.
I don't think Boston would be after Jrue, unless they are trading Kemba. In this theoretical scenario Dallas would need to compensate NO with a package of Kemba value. Perhaps if NO would prefer expiring contracts and picks instead of Kemba. I don't see something like this happening. If we are thinking about three team trade with Boston, I would look at a team with high draft pick or a team trading center.
(11-04-2020, 06:02 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Tim Cato piece below. Mainly deals involving THJ that maintain cap room for some guy who will be free a year from now. The deals are for Dipo, Hayward and OPJ (the only truly impactful 3&D starter Tim sees as available this off-season).
Interesting deal was Delon + 18 for expiring Rose. Plan HIBW's:
"In his career’s second life, Rose has turned into the secondary creator this team could use. He’s the better Trey Burke we’ve written about. Detroit doesn’t need him, and Rose is on an expiring contract. He makes your team better for a year while you shed salary. It’s a smart move within the context of what I think the Mavericks might be trying to accomplish."
https://theathletic.com/2178045/2020/11/...s-pursuit/
I think that would be a decent option/move. I read the Lakers want Rose as well.
(11-04-2020, 06:49 PM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]I think that would be a decent option/move. I read the Lakers want Rose as well.
I don't think this would be a good move by Mavs. Wright was brought to play defense next to Luka and be poor mans secondary creator. Rose doesn't play defense, so his role would be on the bench and it is already crowded there with Curry and Brunson. It would be cheaper for us to sign Burke than waste #18 on Rose imho.
So I'll bite on saying Jrue will cost too much to acquire. I don't think he will cost nearly as much as you think. Or frankly that he should in a given year.
A couple of factors in play.
1. Jrue is expiring. That always shrinks the market for a player. To sum it up... He's not going to someone like the Hawks. You don't trade for a 30 year old guard on a rebuilding team and have any reason to think he stays.
2. Roster construction. Alot of good teams already have two guards. That rules out someone like Houston and Portland. I'll circle back to roster construction in a minute.
3. $$$$ 26 million is hard to salary match without giving up a major contributor. For most teams it'll require multiple good players. Plus a young asset or draft picks. At some point it becomes a situation where you aren't improving and the deal doesn't make sense. That's arguably the biggest factor at play. Additionally it'll be extremely tough for a good team other than the Heat to absorb enough salary to fit Holiday under the cap. Of course there is always the SNT to make the money work. I find that extremely unlikely in a cap matching trade like this. A team would have to SNT out to help and not receive anything in most scenarios. Extremely unlikely in this cap environment. You also have the tax line to worry about for a lot of teams.
So back to roster construction. Lets assume only a decently good team would be willing to trade for Jrue. That removes 11 teams. I count GS as a good team. Now remove 2 guard teams. Portland, Houston. Remove OKC, Indy for obvious reasons. Assuming Phx and Grizz have little interest due to youth and roster needs. You have 17 of 29 possible teams eliminated now.
Down to 12.
Clippers have 0 assets and old contracts to send back.
Bucks have 0 assets to send other than this years draft pick because the next 1st rounder they can trade is 2024 which they won't without knowing about Giannis. Bledsoe and cap filler of poor prospects just doesn't get it done.
Raptors simply don't have the money to match without trading away almost all of their team if they keep Van Fleet.I'm not sure they'd exchange Van Fleet and Powell for Holiday anyways. And they'd lose Ibaka in that scenario too.
Celtics can definitely make it work. And maybe I'm wrong about their interest. But I honestly think there guard rotation would take a hit by trading for Holiday. I don't think they are looking to make major changes there.
Heat can cap match. They lack the assets unless they are willing to trade Bam or Herro. That aint happening.
Warriors: Good luck having them take Wiggins back.
That leaves 76ers, Nets, Lakers, Nuggets, Utah, Dallas as the most likely teams.
76ers are a complete wildcard. They have enough to make a deal and the contracts do it. I honestly have no idea on what their plans are for roster building.
Nets have the contracts and assets to make a deal. Are they willing to include them tho? Rookie coach with a new team together for the first time and a couple of good youngish guard to pair with Kyrie.... I don't see this one but it's certainly possible.
If you don't think Mavs have enough, Lakers are out. They have even less. A late 1st this year with Kuzma and cap matching deals. If they liked Kuzma they would have made sure to get him last year.
Nuggets deal is super easy. Harris and MPJ. You can't compete with that. Or some variation of letting Grant and Millsap walk and squeezing him into cap space with picks. It's probably the biggest threat as far as monster haul. But I personally don't think Denver is trading for MPJ for an expiring player. Harris and Barton works money wise but I don't think that gets New Orleans enough and adding picks starts to hurt any further ability to improve or the contracts to do it. If Denver is willing to go one of these routes, you simply can't compete.
Jazz- Gobert for Jrue swap makes a lot of sense from an asset swap point if New Orleans is not dealing Jrue at the risk of losing him for nothing. I think that is the reason and this deal doesn't make sense if so. Conley being there with Mitchell makes it a mess tho too.
TLDR: The amount of teams with ability to create a better offer than Mavs is actually small. And if they won't include their big names. Mavs offer is extremely competitive.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk.