Draft value charts are all over the place. I've seen charts that would bump us up 2-8 spots by bundling 18+31. Let's be super conservative and say that adding Brunson to the mix gets you to 12 or 13.
(09-30-2020, 11:46 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So once Wright is out of the mix I bet Brunson locks down his position. And I disagree with @"Scott41theMavs" and any others that would think we'd get much back for Brunson. Sure we could trade him but what are we going to get back that's better than Brunson? He is not valued enough to get us anything better than what we already have.
I picture Brunson as the Mavs long-term Barea replacement. He's underrated, I just like his game a lot. He is underrated because he's not athletic but he's just a baller.
You're still not taking into account the "doesn't play well with Luka" aspect. Kamm even had numbers to support it. He's not as valuable to us as he might be for some other team if his minutes are limited.
(09-30-2020, 12:14 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Draft value charts are all over the place. I've seen charts that would bump us up 2-8 spots by bundling 18+31. Let's be super conservative and say that adding Brunson to the mix gets you to 12 or 13.
Ok, but 2-8 spots is a BIG range, especially if you're targeting a specific player.
(09-30-2020, 12:18 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2020, 12:14 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Draft value charts are all over the place. I've seen charts that would bump us up 2-8 spots by bundling 18+31. Let's be super conservative and say that adding Brunson to the mix gets you to 12 or 13.
Ok, but 2-8 spots is a BIG range, especially if you're targeting a specific player.
So, throwing in Brunson could net pick #10? One of Haliburton, Okoru, or Vassell should be available at that point - or if not, Bey as a consolation prize. Even without including Brunson and not getting 10, moving up a few spots gives you a much better chance at one of those guys, or Smith. Do one of those, and buy a pick in the 24-26 range to get Bolmaro, Tiger, or whoever the BPA in that range is.
I don't see why we would spend a mountain of assets to move up in this shallow draft. The only consensus about this draft is that there really isn't that much of a difference 1-15 and most prospects aren't NBA ready.
Obviously some look better than others, but overall every single top 10 prospect in this draft would barely crack the lottery of past drafts (17,18,19 to name a few).
Mavs should only be moving 18+31 if it nets them a day 1 rotation piece that can start. Anything else would be a HUGE gamble on a shaky prospect coming and being ready to play a heavy role on a playoff team.
(09-30-2020, 12:49 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see why we would spend a mountain of assets to move up in this shallow draft. The only consensus about this draft is that there really isn't that much of a difference 1-15 and most prospects aren't NBA ready.
Obviously some look better than others, but overall every single top 10 prospect in this draft would barely crack the lottery of past drafts (17,18,19 to name a few).
Mavs should only be moving 18+31 if it nets them a day 1 rotation piece that can start. Anything else would be a HUGE gamble on a shaky prospect coming and being ready to play a heavy role on a playoff team.
Mostly where I'm at and why I regret my 18+31+Brunson idea. I'm not a huge Brunson fan mostly due to size and athleticism but at least you know what you have in him (a rock solid bench PG) and it seems like most guys in this draft (in our range) are destined to be just that. I'm not sure what a shallow draft does for the value of the 31st pick but I'm thinking you just take two lottery tickets instead of one.
(09-30-2020, 12:57 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Mostly where I'm at and why I regret my 18+31+Brunson idea. I'm not a huge Brunson fan mostly due to size and athleticism but at least you know what you have in him (a rock solid bench PG) and it seems like most guys in this draft (in our range) are destined to be just that. I'm not sure what a shallow draft does for the value of the 31st pick but I'm thinking you just take two lottery tickets instead of one.
I see where you're coming from. I'm pretty solid in the "Brunson is a solid piece camp with potential for more".
I was a little disappointed for his 2nd year growth, in that I didn't see much of it. He also didn't mesh that well being off-ball to Luka, but I do felt he was a solid presence for the 2nd unit. A MUCH better one than Wright. I felt we sorely missed Brunson in the playoffs.
I just don't see why we would trade a bird in the hand for the off chance of 2 in the bush. Especially when there is a wide consensus that the "bush" is pretty empty. Just my opinion.
(09-30-2020, 01:01 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2020, 12:57 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Mostly where I'm at and why I regret my 18+31+Brunson idea. I'm not a huge Brunson fan mostly due to size and athleticism but at least you know what you have in him (a rock solid bench PG) and it seems like most guys in this draft (in our range) are destined to be just that. I'm not sure what a shallow draft does for the value of the 31st pick but I'm thinking you just take two lottery tickets instead of one.
I see where you're coming from. I'm pretty solid in the "Brunson is a solid piece camp with potential for more".
I was a little disappointed for his 2nd year growth, in that I didn't see much of it. He also didn't mesh that well being off-ball to Luka, but I do felt he was a solid presence for the 2nd unit. A MUCH better one than Wright. I felt we sorely missed Brunson in the playoffs.
I just don't see why we would trade a bird in the hand for the off chance of 2 in the bush. Especially when there is a wide consensus that the "bush" is pretty empty. Just my opinion.
I'm 41, can't shoot and cant dribble and I'd be more productive than Wright.
If we can resign Burke, I think that makes Brunson expendable. I'm just not sure what he is worth and who would want him. And if you are bundling your draft assets with him, you better be sure you are getting a day one rotational player which seems like an awfully big crap shoot this draft.
I really like Nesmith but not enough to put all my trade assets into his basket. There are other sharp shooters in this draft and probably ones that could be had at 18 or 18+31 without sacrificing Brunson.
(09-30-2020, 11:46 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So once Wright is out of the mix I bet Brunson locks down his position.
I doubt that. I think Brunson will stay where he is and Mavs will look for a better player to replace Wright
Brunson will stay because he's part of the good locker room, good guy, leadership, friends with Luka club.
He's an ok backup point guard but Mavs fans overrate him quite a bit IMO. I dont think he has much trade value.
(09-30-2020, 12:31 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]One of Haliburton, Okoru, or Vassell should be available at that point - or if not, Bey as a consolation prize.
You move up for a specific player (once he was drafted), not blindly. I am not paying Brunson and all my darft capital for a consolation prize
If we are speaking about hypothetical interest in Brunson:
- there is obviously Orlando with #15. But I doubt this really moves us high enough for one of the guys we aim for
- Boston and Pelicans could both use back up point guard, especially if Pels move one of Jrue/Ball
- Sacramento and San Antonio don't really need a back up point guard
- Phoenix and Washington might again be interested. I think Brunson is much better than any back up PG option they have. But I agree 18+31+Brunson is a little light to jump to #10 or #9.
(09-30-2020, 12:16 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2020, 11:46 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So once Wright is out of the mix I bet Brunson locks down his position. And I disagree with @"Scott41theMavs" and any others that would think we'd get much back for Brunson. Sure we could trade him but what are we going to get back that's better than Brunson? He is not valued enough to get us anything better than what we already have.
I picture Brunson as the Mavs long-term Barea replacement. He's underrated, I just like his game a lot. He is underrated because he's not athletic but he's just a baller.
You're still not taking into account the "doesn't play well with Luka" aspect. Kamm even had numbers to support it. He's not as valuable to us as he might be for some other team if his minutes are limited.
I thought they played well Luka's rookie year when it seemed like they were paired together more. I don't know if I have seen enough of Luka/Brunson together year 2 to say they don't play well. Even if they aren't perfect together Brunson is more or less in charge of leading the second unit so it's not as critical he match up with Luka.
(09-30-2020, 11:57 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Agree that he's underrated, and will be a fine pro for a long time. Probably not as good as Barea, but it's certainly possible.
I think Brunson is basically ALREADY as good as JJB was except for maybe one peak season. AND Brunson is better defensively this past year than I think JJB EVER was.
(09-30-2020, 12:31 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]So, throwing in Brunson could net pick #10? One of Haliburton, Okoru, or Vassell should be available at that point
I am willing to trade Brunson but only if it nets Vassell or Haliburton. Those are really the only two guys toward the top that I am really interested in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3qOd8PQvxQ
(09-30-2020, 01:46 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2020, 11:57 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Agree that he's underrated, and will be a fine pro for a long time. Probably not as good as Barea, but it's certainly possible.
I think Brunson is basically ALREADY as good as JJB was except for maybe one peak season. AND Brunson is better defensively this past year than I think JJB EVER was.
(09-30-2020, 12:31 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]So, throwing in Brunson could net pick #10? One of Haliburton, Okoru, or Vassell should be available at that point
I am willing to trade Brunson but only if it nets Vassell or Haliburton. Those are really the only two guys toward the top that I am really interested in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3qOd8PQvxQ
Can't decide until I see Brunson take a flying forearm from Andrew Bynum.
That is one ugly ass jump shot.
(09-30-2020, 01:45 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know if I have seen enough of Luka/Brunson together year 2 to say they don't play well.
They only played 202 minutes together in year 2. The team performed a couple points worse with them together, but I agree the sample size isn't as big as you would like.
(09-30-2020, 01:58 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2020, 01:45 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know if I have seen enough of Luka/Brunson together year 2 to say they don't play well.
They only played 202 minutes together in year 2. The team performed a couple points worse with them together, but I agree the sample size isn't as big as you would like.
I'd be curious to see year one effectiveness of the pairing as Luka's usage rate continued to climb as the season progressed.
Brunson is coming off the bench and largely taking Luka's spot so I don't know why ppl are so hung up on Brunson's fit with Luka.
(09-30-2020, 02:00 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I'd be curious to see year one effectiveness of the pairing
They played 824 minutes together year one and were the single worst two-man pairing of the top-20 minutes pairings at -4.6.
I assume RC learned in year one that they were much better apart and adjusted accordingly in year two.
(09-30-2020, 02:05 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Brunson is coming off the bench and largely taking Luka's spot so I don't know why ppl are so hung up on Brunson's fit with Luka.
Because Luka plays a lotta minutes. A guy who is only going to play when Luka sits barely qualifies as a rotation player.
I have been saying for weeks that the Mavs' number one need, and yes, greater than their need for a defensive wing, miraculous as that may be, is Jrue Holiday or a very similar player - strong defender, can create his own shot, can play off ball with Luka, and can quarterback when Luka sits. That player would make Brunson expendable.
Luka plays 33 mpg. JJB's numbers fluctuated but was somewhere around 20 mpg. If Brunson gets Wright's minutes he will probably be around that. I think the small amount of overlap isn't that significant. I also like that Brunson does (I think) a great job stepping in for Luka when he twists his ankle 4 times a year. That also has a lot of value. To recap, Brunson has potential to take JJB's role as the leader of the 2nd unit, is a solid stand-in for Luka when he misses games and oh ya is on basically a vet min salary.
People think Brunson is going to get you 8 spots higher in the draft, but honestly I think a team would look at him like the Mavs looked at Justin Jackson last year. They would say hey nice young prospect that we might pay a small sum for if we have a need. I can't imagine any team giving you something that is better than what you already have in JB.