(09-09-2020, 06:19 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Setting aside (for a second) the debate on what the Mavs should do moving forward, I’m astonished that people aren’t seeing a difference between the last 2-3 “plan powder” free agencies and what some people are hoping to see in 2021.
Night and day difference. Maybe not Giannis, but someone will want to come here and play with Luka, while nobody wanted to play with 87 year old Dirk. This team looks like a juggernaut just getting started, while those plan powder Mavs looked like a pack of old players employed by a delusional front office.
I repeat: there’s a 0% chance they go into summer of 2021 with room and strikeout. Now, that might not mean that it’s the best thing to do, because maybe you can build a better team in different ways, but the downside of that path is not the same as it was with Howard, Deron Williams, etc.
I think the chance they strike out on a star player is pretty high as there are only a few star players even available. No one is saying Mavs can't get a good player with cap space. The problem with Plan Powder isn't that FA's don't want to come here.
The problem is multi-faceted:
1. MBT believes cap space is worth more than assets. They would pass up the next Maxi-level bargain if that player's salary cut into a max cap slot. This is folly.
2. Attracting top stars through FA is tough and competition is fierce. Do these older late 20's, early 30's see themselves playing next to Luka? Maybe but a lot of times you see guys of similar ages teaming up after they have formed relationships over the years.
Another thing is positionally you have a ball-dominate guard and a star "big" for the foreseeable future as your twosome. A lot of stars are ball-dominate and won't necessarily see a fit next to Luka (Kemba made this calculation last summer). So positioning we need a guard or wing that can play a lot off-ball. That also limits choices.
3. Many stars move to their destination prior to FA which goes back to problem 1 which is Mavs overvalue space and undervalue actual player assets.
And so we go round and round never actually getting a team better than what we would have gotten through other means. Someone will have to let me know when Luka gets his big RFA deal is that in 2022? If Mavs can clear out a max slot then, then I would not be surprised if Bradley Beal is the guy we all talk ourselves into.
Honestly Nuclear Winter turned out to be better than Plan Powder (altho maybe still flawed)? We landed Porzingis through some combination of amazing luck and opportunity thanks the Nuclear Winter which calls for large expiring contracts. If I had to choose one or the other (altho they are not mutually exclusive) I would go for NW. I think the reason why MBT does like PP is that you can do both at the same time. Because you are stocking the team with large expirings every year you have flexibility to trade your way to a star player or sign one in FA. That's been the MO of this front office for many years now.
Luka will have his big RFA deal in a couple years and I guess Mavs will have a tougher time doing this strategy but they might still do it, shedding usable role players all in an effort to sign a big name.
This summer since Plan Powder likely is not achievable I think you still see Nuclear Winter. There is a good chance imo of Wright and maybe Jackson converting to a double digit expiring contract. That would be in line with how MBT likes to operate.
The missed opportunities are players like Buddy Hield who could be a good fit and obtainable. I don't think the MBT will look at Hield at all, simply because his contract extends out for several years. I believe he would be a good asset and potentially flippable in a later deal down the line. But it's unlikely we see any moves like that bc it's all ab Giannis right now.
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