(10-02-2020, 11:58 PM)SamStetz Wrote: [ -> ]Not sure how popular of a take this will be, but I’d rather have OPJ than Oladipo.
- He’s had some injuries but nothing as severe as Oladipo
- He won’t cost as much to acquire in a trade
- You don’t know whether Oladipo will be 2017-2018 version or 2019-2020 version and those are two very different players
@"Kammrath" and @"ItsGoTime" will love this take. I think I do, too.
(10-02-2020, 08:02 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah I think based on the rumored names, the guys we went after, etc they clearly wanted another playmaking guard. And based on the success of Burke (who was barely an nba player at signing) it was a great idea.
I'd speculate one step further that I think they wanted a playmaking guard and a 3d guard effectively making it a 3 guard system. That's also Carlisles wet dream lol.
But with Luka being so big and a combo forward like DFS, that lineup could wind up being phenomenal with the right signings. Luka is basically your other forward in that scenario despite whatever offensive position he plays.
I feel like you are basically saying the same thing as my post here... But wasn't quite sure.
So for me... I'm interested in Dipo but... It's more of a fallback option at this point. If it's Dipo or no trade...I take Dipo.
Otherwise I'd rather try to sign him next summer. The risk is much lower because we'll know his game level and health a bit more clearly.
I guess a playmaker can come from any position nowadays, but guard seems likely as it would be helpful to have someone who can guard the other teams lead ball handler (often a guard, but not always).
Vegas line on where Oladipo plays next:
Indy +150
Miami +300
Boston +400
Dallas +550
Denver +700
To me, history is against Indy keeping him. They tend to get value for guys who might leave. The odds give us some idea of the competition and what they might offer. Does Indy want to trade him in conference? What does Miami give up? Or do they just wait until 2021? Boston? It that a Hayward based deal (which requires other Indy salary being added).
In terms of Dallas, I suspect they would ask for Maxi...a good fit next to Sabonis if Turner is traded elsewhere. We'd have to fill in with some additional salary (Wright or Curry) and our pick? Getting him (and his Bird rights) a year early would be a Dallas move. Dipo's agent also represents DJjr BTW, so a larger offer for him might grease the wheels a bit in terms of Dipo staying in 2021.
Bottom line, expect to give up something you don't want to (Maxi) to get Dipo. If he doesn't work out, you've removed some salary from the 2021 cap, so actually not that bad even if it doesn't work. But, if it does work and you get something close to an 18/5/5 guy who hits his 3's and has a TS% above .560 and plays plus D, you've really made a nice add.
I totally agree with the takes here. If we can get Dipo for the mere assets we have, it is a no brainer. Dipo also needs a strong season to demand max in the next one.
(10-02-2020, 07:35 PM)Omega_Supreme Wrote: [ -> ]If you look at it like this and say
Are we better with Oladipo or Hardaway Jr. + pick 18 and pick 31
I think we are at best a draw so I do not see the point in overpaying for him.
Tim Hardaway Jr. has his faults but he is a team guy and is loved by his teammates.
I agree, but more because I have zero faith in Oladipo either returning to his all star form or having any real longevity in the game being 29 and so reliant on athleticism to be the player he was.
However I don't think THJ is a good player either after just one outlier shooting season. The fact his entire value is predicated pretty much of 3pt shooting efficiency for a guy who's never been a consistent shooter, is as much of a risk in terms of him regressing closer to his mean shooting avgs next season, as the risk of Oladipo recovering his All star level.
(10-02-2020, 08:33 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So yall I am talking myself into going all in on Oladipo. His stock is lower for many reasons and the Pacers are going to have to move him. I think this is your shot to get a third star this off-season.
So with that I think I'd be willing to give up any combination of assets not names Luka or KP to offer Indy the best deal you can offer. That could include some guys we love bur role guys can be replaced. To be a real contender you probably need that third star in place.
How have you talked yourself into it? He's 29, coming off a major injury, had one complete outlier season (we are not talking about years of consistent elite play), and has a game almost purely predicated on athleticism. None of this is a recipe for either a player that will age well, or even see him ever be an All Star caliber player again. If you really want him go after him in free agency.
Even if you take away the injuries and pretend like they never happened, he is exactly the type of player who's skillset usually has a short peak who is a role player by his early 30's, because he doesn't really have the skillset to adapt and maintain elite play once the athleticism goes. Also did anyone actually watch much of him this year? Yeah he had a few nice games, but his athletic edge was CLEARLY not there compared to pre injury. Go check out some other boards where Pacers fans are confirming it. You can assume it will come back because it was just his first season back.... to me this is no less risky than taking a boom or bust pick in the draft. At least the draft pick isn't costing a bunch of assets and can leave next season.
(10-02-2020, 04:24 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ] (10-02-2020, 12:47 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-02-2020, 08:33 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So yall I am talking myself into going all in on Oladipo.
He TERRIFIES me.
If you get peak Oladipo that is GREAT (but unlikely to me)....if you get current Oladipo then you have wasted a couple years of Luka (which is likely).
I don't see how this is true at all.
At best, not only have the Mavs found their 3rd star, but they found objectively one of the best pairings in the backcourt for Luka AND the team as a whole. Oladipo was elite as a playmaker in the PnR for the Pacers. Someone that can run the offense fine without Luka on the court. He was about league average at 3. He was an All NBA defensive guard that was capable of guarding anyone under 6'8. And he was athletic as all hell. If he returns to what he was, then the Mavs found the dude.
At worst, Oladipo expires at the end of 2021 season . Mavs can cut him loose and chase another star in that loaded free agency class that they are already planning to do anyways. There will be plenty to choose from. Giannis. Kawhi, Lebron, PG, Beal, Jrue Holiday and a glut of quality role players. Even if the doomsday scenario is the most likely outcome, losing Oladipo doesn't change the fact that the Mavs have a top 5 NBA player and MVP candidate, and another top 20 player both under 26 to offer to potential FA's. Something that literally no one else can offer.
Currently Dipo looked like a shell of himself coming back. He was still solid averaging 15ppg on some bad shooting with flashes of defensive potential. And while that can be a red flag to stay away, I see it as a perfect buy low opportunity. The fact he's forcing himself out lowers his price even more since other teams will be scared off with him potentially wanting to leave the moment he hits free agency.
Given all these downsides and potential restrictions I can see Dipo being had for a cheap price. One that the Mavs can be competitive in. If they get him for a meager package of THJ+18+31+1 role player (Brunson, Wright, or Jackson), then it'd be highway robbery.
If this doesn't work out, which is pretty likely (Oladipo doesn't get back his athleticism or All Star form and/or leaves) this team will be totally bereft of tradeable assets and will be solely reliant on FA for any decent additions. We know how that typically works out.
(10-02-2020, 08:02 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]
Did anyone read the Athletic article about Buddy? Sounds like he may want out of Sacramento but it was locked behind a paywall and I'm poor lol.
He's sort of a better shooting version of THJ so I wouldn't pay a crazy amount for him. But he's locked in on a declining contract and that really intrigues me. He's on a great value deal. And I can't help but wonder if he does even a bit better shooting with a good supporting cast around him.
Mostly details the history of his unhappiness in Sacramento. A deal has to return between $19.9 and $31.2 million unless he's traded to a team with room. Lot's of talk about Philly, but neither Horford nor Harris make sense for Sacramento. Taking back big long term money doesn't help them retain Bogdanovic or extend Fox.
The other move that we haven't really discussed much on these boards is Goran Dragic. At 34 he was playing amazing basketball before his injury. He loves Miami and they love him. You would think they'd team up one more year but then the Luka, Dragic connection is really big. Any chance Dragic joins the Mavs?
(10-03-2020, 09:46 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Any chance Dragic joins the Mavs?
Very small. As you said, he loves it in Miami.
(10-03-2020, 09:46 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The other move that we haven't really discussed much on these boards is Goran Dragic. At 34 he was playing amazing basketball before his injury. He loves Miami and they love him. You would think they'd team up one more year but then the Luka, Dragic connection is really big. Any chance Dragic joins the Mavs?
Dragic is out for at least 3-4 month. He recovered from his last injury and was great in the playoffs. Not sure if he can do it again.
(10-03-2020, 08:19 AM)Dundalis Wrote: [ -> ]If this doesn't work out, which is pretty likely (Oladipo doesn't get back his athleticism or All Star form and/or leaves) this team will be totally bereft of tradeable assets and will be solely reliant on FA for any decent additions. We know how that typically works out.
Well it all depends on what the Mavs give up in a potential trade. I expect Dipo to cost 2 of THJ, Maxi*, Wright, Curry*, Brunson, and Jackson (*denotes the more valuable tier that I think won't be packaged with another * player).
If the Mav say give up Maxi+Wright, like Dan threw out a bit earlier + our 2 picks this year, are the Mavs that bereft of tradeable assets? THJ is an expiring. Curry is as valuable as ever. Brunson is valuable. Jackson is deadweight. Mavs have picks from 2025 out if needed.
AND the main advantage to Dipo is that by the time you learn if it works out or not, you're already in next year's free agency where the Mavs can gather more tradeable assets. If it does work, Mavs traded for a borderline all-star SG that can handle the ball, hit his threes, and guard the other teams best perimeter player. Which is someone that you do want to give up assets for!
Watching some Oladipo highlights from the playoffs, ya he's rusty but I am not seeing anything that tells me he's lost his athleticism. I think teams are not going to be worried ab that and will line up good offers. To me the fact that he is expiring dampens his value more than injury/rustiness.
If you are the Wolves for example are you going to give up assets for a 1 year rental of Oladipo, knowing he wants to be on a contender and/or in a big market? I think those types will not be in the running for a serious offer.
Mavs on the other hand have a risk profile where they could go in pretty hard for Dipo knowing they have can easily reboot in 2021 if it doesn't work out. As long as you have KP/Luka + cap space as your base you are in good shape. As much as I love our role guys on value contracts, you can replace those guys.
Expect big swings from western conference teams. You already have the Lakers who will be the favorite to come out of the West again. They could make smaller moves and get better but they also have the ability for a decent move moving Kuzma + filler for some kind of upgrade.
Clippers again will be really good and have the ability for a big swing.
Warriors should be a top 3 favorite and have the ability for a major move on top of bringing back their 3 all-stars.
Other teams have a chance to get better. I think Mavs are good enough to be a playoff team on the strength of the foundation we have but if you want to make a swing towards contender status Oladipo is the type of move that could get you there.
(10-03-2020, 07:21 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]In terms of Dallas, I suspect they would ask for Maxi...a good fit next to Sabonis if Turner is traded elsewhere. We'd have to fill in with some additional salary (Wright or Curry) and our pick? Getting him (and his Bird rights) a year early would be a Dallas move. Dipo's agent also represents DJjr BTW, so a larger offer for him might grease the wheels a bit in terms of Dipo staying in 2021.
Bottom line, expect to give up something you don't want to (Maxi) to get Dipo. If he doesn't work out, you've removed some salary from the 2021 cap, so actually not that bad even if it doesn't work.
What I personally would be unwilling to do is give up on THIS draft for Dipo. Sending out other players who would potentially clear the books later is fine (even if they are talented). But giving up on getting talent on rookie contracts I am not willing to give up for the 10% chance that Dipo can be an efficient star again.
Ok, I'm not saying Oladipo is a bad move, necessarily.
Read this part twice, however:
He is not the defender you remember him being, post injury (so far). He's not nearly as good on that end as DFS, for example.
The people here who are railing against THJ's defense are very likely to feel almost exactly the same way about Dipo next year, should the Mavs acquire him.
Yes, it's a relatively low risk move, as it allows you to maintain your path to 2021 cap space, but the people in favor of the deal who are pointing that out don't REALLY believe that's going to happen, imo. They're simply trying to logically argue in favor of a move they like. Deep down, they subconsciously feel they'd be acquiring 2017-18 Oladipo, and that's not true.
If being underwhelmed by what Oladipo brings to the table ( the most likely eventuality) leads to letting him expire for space, can someone explain to me why the Mavs should give Kleber and a pick (or TWO?!?!?!) for the privilege of doing something they can ALREADY do, simply by letting THJ expire?
Now, if the Pacers like Powell and are willing to take HIM? Now, we can have a conversation.
Just the way I see it.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/n...de-rumors/
"
Injuries, though, limited Oladipo to 36 games in 2018-19 and only 19 games this season. By the time the NBA season resumed in the Orlando bubble, Oladipo was often the third guard in the Indiana rotation after Malcolm Brogdon and TJ Warren."
Firmly in the nothing-of-value-for Oladipo camp.
Kind of discouraging in the sense that his collapse severely weakens the '21 options.
Kawhi, anybody? He expires in '21, and the Clippers are getting scared to death that he'll leave. I know he went to them because of location, but I think he'd be the perfect fit with Luka and KP.
(10-03-2020, 02:09 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Kawhi, anybody? He expires in '21, and the Clippers are getting scared to death that he'll leave. I know he went to them because of location, but I think he'd be the perfect fit with Luka and KP.
I'm 99% sure Kawhi is a Clipper for the remainder of his career, given what it took for him to get there. He has been trying to make it home to LA since before he left San Antonio.
But, the idea that he COULD be in play goes a long way towards illustrating how quickly things can change in the NBA. Cap space can be very useful, and not just for signing free agents. Until Luka signs his rookie max extension, you have to maintain the option of going that route in case something pops up.
Once Luka signs that extension, there won't be cap space for a long, long time (we hope). At that point, yes, you take the best trade options available to improve your team, just as the Mavs did throughout the Dirk era. Until then, even the BEST available trade options, MLE signings, etc, MUST be weighed against options that could potentially come up over the next two seasons. This means that if a move isn't an obvious gap double off of the wall (at least) you don't do it, imo.
To make an analogy: choosing to take a shortcut that gets you past some congested traffic because you're sick of sitting still might seem like a good idea at the time, but if that shortcut ultimately makes it more difficult to actually reach your destination this is not a good choice. Just put on a Radiohead album, roll the windows down and try to enjoy the time, somehow.
In my view, rejection of the thinking above by the front office would be shortsighted.
I think y'all are just way too low on Dipo. Played 19 games + playoffs. Every move has risk/reward. Pre-injury he was a back-to-back all-star. MBT wants a big 3 and Dipo represents an opportunity to make that happen this offseason.
Again I don't want to give up our nice assets but you can't put the cart before the horse. If we need a big 3 to contend (it's an argument but I would lean towards yes) then you have to be willing to give up smaller pieces to get that 3rd foundational piece.
Will the Mavs try to make a big splash this offseason? I am really not sure. I think they are hesitant to trade their assets bc they believe they can get a star played in 2021 "for free" (ie cap space only).
(10-03-2020, 02:39 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I think y'all are just way too low on Dipo. Played 19 games + playoffs. Every move has risk/reward. Pre-injury he was a back-to-back all-star. MBT wants a big 3 and Dipo represents an opportunity to make that happen this offseason.
Again I don't want to give up our nice assets but you can't put the cart before the horse. If we need a big 3 to contend (it's an argument but I would lean towards yes) then you have to be willing to give up smaller pieces to get that 3rd foundational piece.
Will the Mavs try to make a big splash this offseason? I am really not sure. I think they are hesitant to trade their assets bc they believe they can get a star played in 2021 "for free" (ie cap space only).
You've correctly identified the issue: Is Oladipo a 3rd, foundational piece? Would Oladipo even be "a big splash?"
You think he IS, so I understand why you're in favor. If you're correct, it's a good move, depending on what it takes to trade for him.
I think he's NOT. I think there's a decent chance that Hardaway Jr is actually a better player than Oladipo next season.
(10-03-2020, 02:39 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Pre-injury he was a back-to-back all-star.
Technically yes.
BUT the year of his injury (before it happened) he shot only 42% and had a PER of 17.6. Year before was 48% and PER of 23.1.
IMO he has had exactly ONE year in his WHOLE career worth giving up a lot of assets for. ONE.
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