MavsBoard

(09-21-2020, 12:21 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]That's why such a good player is available to be had. The injuries are not serious though. He had a shoulder injury 56 games into the 18-19 season that he recovered from. Had a sprained ankle and needed 6 stitches in his mouth early this season, he recovered from that. Then he had a foot bruise that he was getting ready to come back from this season before COVID-19 hit. 

Before those minor setbacks he had seasons of 77 games in 17-18, 80 games in 16-17, 75 games in 15-16, and 74 games in 14-15. That's hardly a recipe for being labeled injury prone and none of those injuries are ones that are gameplay debilitating. 

He's a 40% 3 pt shooter on 3.3 attempts/game for his career which includes poor shooting and low attempts in his first 3 years. He's a "guard the other team's best player" defender (1-3, could get away with the 4 if the player is another wing) with lock-down capability. He's 27 years old, not really sure what there is to not like about him.

I am right there with you.

(09-21-2020, 12:26 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-21-2020, 12:22 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So even a 2 yr deal over 20 mil will have them out of the running.

Why? They can offer him 15 mil for one season, for example. He is not that old to seek his 4 year MLE deal next season

I think they prob will offer him a big 1 yr deal bc why not. But then maybe NYK or somebody offers him 2 for 30 or a 4 year deal. Anyways he can be had but my guess is that it will be too rich for the Mavs.

Any type of move the Mavs going to make is going to be Giannis/21 compatible so ab 90% of the deals this board throws out there just won't happen. If the Mavs didn't have 2 nice picks I would be predicting super small moves but the picks add an element of intrigue that could lead to a decent-sized move or two.

(09-21-2020, 01:02 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-21-2020, 12:21 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]That's why such a good player is available to be had. The injuries are not serious though. He had a shoulder injury 56 games into the 18-19 season that he recovered from. Had a sprained ankle and needed 6 stitches in his mouth early this season, he recovered from that. Then he had a foot bruise that he was getting ready to come back from this season before COVID-19 hit. 

Before those minor setbacks he had seasons of 77 games in 17-18, 80 games in 16-17, 75 games in 15-16, and 74 games in 14-15. That's hardly a recipe for being labeled injury prone and none of those injuries are ones that are gameplay debilitating. 

He's a 40% 3 pt shooter on 3.3 attempts/game for his career which includes poor shooting and low attempts in his first 3 years. He's a "guard the other team's best player" defender (1-3, could get away with the 4 if the player is another wing) with lock-down capability. He's 27 years old, not really sure what there is to not like about him.

I am right there with you.

OPj makes sense. Put him at the 3 and have DFS as super sub 6th man of the year. The problem is how do we get him without opening another hole. It would take some crazy maneuvering from us to get it done. Our asset(pick 18) needs to be traded before the draft so they get their guy. If i have this correct we won’t even know if OPj will opt in at that time. Not to mention the salary matching involved. He’s the perfect player to bring in but it almost seems it would be too complicated to make it happen. A more realistic option is Kelly Oubre for 18

I also think Oubre is an easier get.

(09-21-2020, 01:13 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-21-2020, 01:02 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-21-2020, 12:21 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]That's why such a good player is available to be had. The injuries are not serious though. He had a shoulder injury 56 games into the 18-19 season that he recovered from. Had a sprained ankle and needed 6 stitches in his mouth early this season, he recovered from that. Then he had a foot bruise that he was getting ready to come back from this season before COVID-19 hit. 

Before those minor setbacks he had seasons of 77 games in 17-18, 80 games in 16-17, 75 games in 15-16, and 74 games in 14-15. That's hardly a recipe for being labeled injury prone and none of those injuries are ones that are gameplay debilitating. 

He's a 40% 3 pt shooter on 3.3 attempts/game for his career which includes poor shooting and low attempts in his first 3 years. He's a "guard the other team's best player" defender (1-3, could get away with the 4 if the player is another wing) with lock-down capability. He's 27 years old, not really sure what there is to not like about him.

I am right there with you.

OPj makes sense. Put him at the 3 and have DFS as super sub 6th man of the year. The problem is how do we get him without opening another hole. It would take some crazy maneuvering from us to get it done. Our asset(pick 18) needs to be traded before the draft so they get their guy. If i have this correct we won’t even know if OPj will opt in at that time. Not to mention the salary matching involved. He’s the perfect player to bring in but it almost seems it would be too complicated to make it happen. A more realistic option is Kelly Oubre for 18

I like Oubre, but I’ve heard his stay at Pho has been one where he’s been more relaxed on defense. If that is a product of environment, that could be a bit of a problem here too cause while it seems that defense is being taught, it doesn’t seem to be sinking in. I’m in on him though if he’s committed to playing defense though. That is why I like OPJ more cause he hasn’t let up after moving.

Just a reminder OPJ played 14 games last year, 56 the year prior.

(09-21-2020, 01:26 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]OPJ played 14 games last year

Can't blame him with the cesspool that CHI is.....

(09-21-2020, 01:26 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Just a reminder OPJ played 14 games last year, 56 the year prior.

Just a reminder, OPJ is better than any player on our team other than Luka and KP and he’s healthy now.

(09-21-2020, 01:54 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-21-2020, 01:26 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Just a reminder OPJ played 14 games last year, 56 the year prior.

Just a reminder, OPJ is better than any player on our team other than Luka and KP and he’s healthy now.

Wow, are you sure? I honestly don't know much about the dude.

So by "better" I think you mean talented? THJ had arguably a more productive last year, logging 70+ games, almost 16 ppg, at 40% from 3. "Better" to me is relative bc I look at age, contract, injury history, production, fit, etc to try to figure out better. What is the trade you have been floating around? I just don't like an OPJ trade if it includes Maxi, that would be a big asset to give up and I am not sure OPJ qualifies as a for sure 3rd guy around KP & Luka that I would give up Maxi for.

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BR throw darts like any of us here but this feels more like a Bulls type of move to me that's better than anything the Mavs would offer:

https://pippenainteasy.com/2020/09/20/ch...om-sixers/

Oubre for 18 Wright and Jackson would leave us with $80 million in commitments including capholds. That would include KP, Luka, Powell, Maxi, DFS, Seth, Brunson and pick 31(making less than vet min cap hold). So, 8 players plus 4 capholds. Assuming cap stays at $109 million that’s plenty of room to take a chance on someone(with salary past next year) if the opportunity arises(i.e. 3 yr offer MLE).

1. Luka / Brunson
2. Hardaway / Curry
3. Oubre / DFS
4. Maxi / DFS
5. KP / Powell / Boban / WCS
Plus pick 31
DFS getting starter minutes

This is what it would look like pre-FA. What’s left of the MLE after pick 31 could be used on best player available.

The best feature of plan HIBW being the expiring contracts we would have. Hardaway, Oubre, Boban, WCS and possibly the MLE player. Win a championship next year? Bring everyone back and go over the cap. Struggle and have a disappointing season? Trade our expirings that are bad fits and try something else. What happens if we get Giannis? Let everyone walk. What happens if we strike out in FA? Have some excellent sign and trade chips with Hardaway and Oubre. Or we could always sign them to new team friendly deals if they end up being organizational soldiers.....or even some combination of the above

I’ve had lots of OPJ centered trades that I’d do. Most of them are centered around THJ and DW with 31 being the compensation the Bulls receive for OPJ which replaces the value they gave up to get him and a bit more. I like also adding into that mix a JJ for Young swap which gives them more incentive IMO.

In my trades THJ is the talent swap, not Maxi, but if we can figure out a Maxi trade without giving up THJ, I’m good there too. I think DW would be a good stop-gap PG for them to get to the other side of the rebuilding process who would probably also be a better for you than he was for us proposition.

THJ is not better than OPJ, you’re fully discounting the defensive side of the game by trying to compare the two, and the funny thing is, they’re comparable on the offensive side. He would easily replace THJ’s offensive production from this last season, if not exceed it.

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(09-21-2020, 02:08 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-21-2020, 01:54 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-21-2020, 01:26 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Just a reminder OPJ played 14 games last year, 56 the year prior.

Just a reminder, OPJ is better than any player on our team other than Luka and KP and he’s healthy now.

Wow, are you sure? I honestly don't know much about the dude.

I’m very sure OPJ could replace what THJ did for us this last year on offense, then he is also a great defender to boot. If it helps, Kamm agrees with me, he’s the one who got me paying attention to OPJ last year when all the clamoring was about Beal.

(09-21-2020, 02:38 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Oubre...

Hello, sir. I just wanted to say welcome, thank you for your service, for game 6, for the 3 in LeBron's face, for the irrationally confident trash talk aimed at LeBron before game 6, for the Mother's Day Massacre, and that I hope all is well with you and that I hope you end up back with the Mavs at some point. Oh, and, I love you.

So the thing with THJ is that if you want to pair him with picks you can't really do that draft night bc he should be in limo opt-in/out status at that time. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but even if THJ is leaning towards one option or another I don't think whatever paperwork gets executed happens until after the draft. For that reason I just don't see THJ being moved frankly at all this offseason. He had a good season, good fit, good contract, why not add to your starters instead of flipping one?

To follow-up on @"Jason Terry"'s point I think he is right on track with the MBT's thinking. I keep going over their potential mindset over and over and I have to think they don't want to tie up 3 mil in that first round pick and we know they aren't going to want Wright's 2021 8 mil on their books either. It makes all the sense in the world that draft night they would want to upgrade Wright+Jackson to get the best player they can get for #18 and also ensure they don't have 11 mil on their books in 2021.

With that as the template and I am trying to figure out what is the best name they could get. To me as Jason said, Oubre is viable and we have also kicked around Schroeder. I would also put Danny Green on that list, most likely as part of a 3-way deal. 

It's possible that the Mavs can't get an upgrade for Wright so they settle for an expiring player and a future lotto-protected pick. This would give the Mavs a first round pick in their arsenal while also dumping that 2021 money. I think a team would do that bc they are getting a for-sure player for #18 right now vs a to-be-named player of similar quality down the line for a relatively low cost.

(09-21-2020, 02:50 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So the thing with THJ is that if you want to pair him with picks you can't really do that draft night bc he should be in limo opt-in/out status at that time. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but even if THJ is leaning towards one option or another I don't think whatever paperwork gets executed happens until after the draft. For that reason I just don't see THJ being moved frankly at all this offseason. He had a good season, good fit, good contract, why not add to your starters instead of flipping one?

To follow-up on @"Jason Terry"'s point I think he is right on track with the MBT's thinking. I keep going over their potential mindset over and over and I have to think they don't want to tie up 3 mil in that first round pick and we know they aren't going to want Wright's 2021 8 mil on their books either. It makes all the sense in the world that draft night they would want to upgrade Wright+Jackson to get the best player they can get for #18 and also ensure they don't have 11 mil on their books in 2021.

With that as the template and I am trying to figure out what is the best name they could get. To me as Jason said, Oubre is viable and we have also kicked around Schroeder. I would also put Danny Green on that list, most likely as part of a 3-way deal. 

It's possible that the Mavs can't get an upgrade for Wright so they settle for an expiring player and a future lotto-protected pick. This would give the Mavs a first round pick in their arsenal while also dumping that 2021 money. I think a team would do that bc they are getting a for-sure player for #18 right now vs a to-be-named player of similar quality down the line for a relatively low cost.

Good point on getting a future pick. Without something like that we really cant afford to trade for awhile. After 18 and 31 are gone, we have next year’s first likely conveys. Can’t trade 2022 and 2023 going to NY. While Luka is on his rookie contract we don’t need to get ourselves in trouble trading any more.......so this may be the best trade move we can make for a few years. Need to make it count

A few have commented on how they believe player options aren't resolved until after the draft. Not sure how it works, but I'm pretty sure they have to be resolved before the draft so that teams know their situations beforehand. If such is not the case, the league needs to change it in the next CBA, because that's stupid.

BTW, I am ***out*** on the idea of burning the #18 just to get rid of Wright and his contract. We need that player on a rookie deal, or at least to get a win-now player who is better than that guy is as a rookie in return. There's got to be a better way.

Edit: did a little research. The deadline for player options until just a short time ago was Oct. 17, the day before the erstwhile date of the NBA draft. I would assume the new date is Nov. 17, the day before the new draft date. Hot damn!

(09-21-2020, 02:50 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-21-2020, 02:38 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Oubre...

Hello, sir. I just wanted to say welcome, thank you for your service, for game 6, for the 3 in LeBron's face, for the irrationally confident trash talk aimed at LeBron before game 6, for the Mother's Day Massacre, and that I hope all is well with you and that I hope you end up back with the Mavs at some point. Oh, and, I love you.

“You know Mr. Fifteenth I always made sure we played with focus and determination for the full 48. The big german needed his JET to get where he was going.......*loud laugh pokes dirk in his ribs*.......No but seriously we had to keep grinding. There was no give up in that team. It was the defining moment in our careers. Selfishly we wish we could have kept it together. But, honestly, it just ain’t the same. That was the best of the best. What Dirk and I went through, what we as an organization went through, to play that same team in that same arena it just don’t get better than that. I look forward to Luka keeping that Mavs tradition alive. “

”Already spoke to Rick. JJ better watch out, the JET is coming for his coaching position. Oh, and I want to apologize to all mavericks fans for ending up on Houston. They don’t have the right colors, but ya boy likes that color green. Gotta feed the fam.”

(09-21-2020, 02:39 PM)ItsGoTime wrote: Wrote: [ -> ]I’m very sure OPJ could replace what THJ did for us this last year on offense

Man, I just spent some time looking at shooting stats and I'm not sure how you can say this. 

There really are only a handful of shooters in the game who are good enough to shoot a high volume of 3's at an elite percentage. THJ is one of them. Curry, for example, is amazing by percentage alone, but he just can't seem to get as many shots off as you'd like. I don't know if it's his size or if his release is too slow, or what, but he gets run off of the line a lot more than I feel he should. I think it's really difficult in today's analytic culture to GET OFF a high number of 3's, and if you can do that AND shoot a high percentage...man, I think teams drool over those guys more than this board does. 

I just spent some time at basketball-reference. I wish I could just share the table, but I'm retarded, sorry. 

Out of all players who attempted at least 500 3's, THJ (513 attempts) was 4th in percentage (.398!!!).

The only shooters who were better, in what I consider to be a difference making way, were:

Damian Lillard (.401 on 674 attempts) 
Buddy Hield (.394 on 688 attempts) 
Duncan Robinson (.446 on 606 attempts)

Imo, those three players represent the top tier of shooters, and probably belong in that order. I mean, Robinson was the most efficient, by far, but I just feel like Hield and especially Lillard are asked to do so much more than just shoot that their percentages are a little more impressive. By comparison to Lillard, Harden shot .355 on 843 attempts, which I feel is the official "diminishing returns" example. 

Literally, once you get past those three names, THJ had the best high volume shooting season in the NBA last year. In my opinion, this is being grossly undervalued on this board.

@"Kammrath" you're going to have to teach me how to share this stuff. That way I won't have to read about how lazy you think I am.

@"Scott41theMavs" nice research on the PO date. Was this the case last year with Powell? I thought his was after the draft last year. If true (and it sounds like it is?) then trades with THJ are certainly on the table. I would caution that the Mavs likely value THJ a lot more than ppl on this board. 

I don't think they would view an OPJ move for example as a big upgrade, but might see that as a lateral move or worse. To me if THJ gets moved its because you are getting a big name like Oladipo. I do think if the Mavs like Oladipo as a potential 3rd star player (and you would think so?) then I could see them taking a swing for Oladipo with no guarantee that he would resign. That would be #18, THJ as the key pieces in that deal. I do believe Pacers can get better value back than that type of offer.

So in my mind the most likely thing to happen draft night is some kind of move involving Wright/Jackson and 18 to find a player upgrade. I could be wrong but the Mavs who are notoriously conservative spending into future max slots will be eager to unload Wright's money and use 18 for something other than a young player that will eat into their 2021 cap space.

(09-21-2020, 04:03 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]There really are only a handful of shooters in the game who are good enough to shoot a high volume of 3's at an elite percentage. THJ is one of them. Curry, for example, is amazing by percentage alone, but he just can't seem to get as many shots off as you'd like.

Some thoughts:

1) THJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was 7% better (!!!!) than the rest of his career and 5% better (!!!) than his career best. He is basically a career 35% catch and shoot 3PT% guy who suddenly jumped to 42%. Is that sustainable? Many of us are concerned it is an outlier.

2) OPJ's catch and shoot 3PT% this year was the same as THJ's and that was OPJ's worst year in the last four. OPJ has been averaging almost 45% (!) on catch and shoot threes over the last four years. He has a proven track record of being a rock steady catch and shoot three guy. 

3) Seth's volume is lower because his release is a little bit slower, BUT I think teams picked their poison against the Mavs and always tried to prioritize taking away Seth's shot (as they should). They dared THJ to shoot since he was only a career 35% catch and shoot three guy....and good on THJ that he stepped up. 48% (!) of all of THJ's shots were open or WIDE open three attempts. Dude got a stupid amount of good looks this year thanks to the spacing of Luka/KP/Seth.

4) I am firmly in the camp that THJ's defense is a big issue on this team and needs to be upgraded. I think OPJ for one does that.