MavsBoard

(10-19-2020, 04:31 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-19-2020, 04:18 PM)jesusshuttlesworth82 Wrote: [ -> ]If you "hit" on a guy like Oladipo, you're probably one piece away from being a legit title contender.

BUT if you "miss" on Dipo and spend #18, #31, and a solid player or two, then you have moved backward significantly in asset management (and maybe set yourself back 2-3 years with contending, 

That's where we disagree.  I think it's much more likely they get Justin Jackson, Delon Wrong, Jalen Brunson type players with those picks.  Those guys dont really move the needle much IMO in your contention plans.  

Those are not significant assets.

This has nothing to do with Oladipo to me.  I think he's probably not going to be great.

If Curry has to be included along with 18 for Oladipo, I might prefer a Curry + 31 for Schroder trade instead. Schroder doesn't have the same upside, but at least he's not coming off a major injury with his eyes set on Miami. This makes Dallas better in the short term, preserves the 1st rounder, and gives more 2021 flexibility.

Mavs: Schroder
Bucks: Curry
Thunder: Ilyasova, Jackson, 24, 31

(10-20-2020, 12:28 AM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]If Curry has to be included along with 18 for Oladipo, I might prefer a Curry + 31 for Schroder trade instead. Schroder doesn't have the same upside, but at least he's not coming off a major injury with his eyes set on Miami. This makes Dallas better in the short term, preserves the 1st rounder, and gives more 2021 flexibility.

Mavs: Schroder
Bucks: Curry
Thunder: Ilyasova, Jackson, 24, 31

How about we don't gift away the best (and most consistent) shooter on the roster?

Curry is an all-time 3pt maker. He is actually 2nd in NBA history behind Steve Kerr for 3pt percentage. That isn't just good, that's about as elite as it can get. 

I know many here are in LOVE with Schroder. For me, I can't see it. I think Schroder would crumble under Carlisle, and his effectiveness would shrink as the season went on like Wright. ATL paid the Thunder to take a young 20ppg guard off their hands because they didn't want to deal with him. Schroder just had a career year and many on the Thunder still want to deal him away.

Great players aren't cut loose like that.

If we are doing a deal for Dipo witch I hope we don't (heath risk & rental risk), it has to include Curry - just for the fact of playing time w/THJ and Curry.  But if I'm Indy I don't want Wright, they have Brogdon/Lamb and 3 others gauds under contract still.  I think Indy would ask for Curry, Kleber and 18 to start - And I say no if I'm Dallas.

But if we are talking Curry, 18 and 31.  I would offer that to Philly for Richardson, 21, 34 and 36.  Then offer the Bucks or Jazz 34 and 36 for 23 or 24.

That's Richardson, T.Bay, D.Bains and we still have the MLE.

18 and Curry?



If anyone is going to this party, skip the Kool-Aid.

The more I read these trade ideas the more I'm convinced you all want me to have a heart attack. I can wrap my head around the Dipo camp, but the Josh Richardson camp has me almost as confused as the camp that wanted to trade for OPJ when he was still a Wizard.

We've got three players on fresh/reasonable contracts that while aren't untouchable should only be used for clear cut upgrades: Curry (Elite shooting), Maxi (one of the more versatile defensive big men) and DFS (3&D starter kit who has shown improvement each year). We'll have to pay a tax to move off of Wright but if that price is too steep, you just keep him for a year, hope year two is better and then pay a lesser price in year three if the relationship isn't salvageable.

The thing is, the Mavs shouldn't be pressured to create cap space this summer for 2021.

One S/W of Powell and a small trade of 5.7 mil gets you right at Giannis max (*If the cap stays at 109). Literally just a Wright/Kleber/Curry trade with 3 mil less coming in and the Mavs are there. That can happen in an instant.

Another thing we should all take into account is that cap space can ALWAYS be created. The Warriors had zero chance at signing Iguodala in 2013. What did they do?  GSW cleared 24 mil of cap space in 2 trades, shipping off Biedrins, Jefferson, and Rush along with picks in less than 30 minutes. 

Again in 2016, the Warriors didn't have a hope or prayer at signing Durant. Once he committed they traded away Barnes and Bogut along with a pick. 

Heat were in cap hell with no end in sight. They managed to pull off a complicated 3 team trade and traded for Butler  because he wanted to be in Miami. Once Butler committed the Heat had all the leverage. 

Boston signed Hayward in 2016, and had to renounce several players and traded Bradley to create the space. Noticing a pattern here? 

Mavs should get literally the best possible players they can this summer. Regardless of contract (barring maybe CP3 or Westbrook etc.). But guys like Hield? Signing Crowder? Mavs should be all for it. If they're good, they're an asset and can be traded. Have the best possible product to show to Giannis rather than strip the team down and pray. Makes no sense to pigeonhole our pickens to expiring deals like OPJ/Schroder when there are better players to be had even if they have a long contract attached to them.

Well said @"SleepingHero". Being precious about 2021 cap space would prove the MBT have not learned from past mistakes. Further, all the destination teams are going to be able to maneuver to add Giannis in 2021. And with how the NBA has been trending of late, he'll know his destination long before midnight strikes on the opening day of free agency. If he leaves, I'd be shocked if the Mavs even get a meeting with him.

(10-20-2020, 02:06 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]We've got three players on fresh/reasonable contracts that while aren't untouchable should only be used for clear cut upgrades:  Curry (Elite shooting), Maxi (one of the more versatile defensive big men) and DFS (3&D starter kit who has shown improvement each year).  We'll have to pay a tax to move off of Wright but if that price is too steep, you just keep him for a year, hope year two is better and then pay a lesser price in year three if the relationship isn't salvageable.

1. It is a fact we lack two starter materials players. Neither Curry or Maxi are one. DFS is a meh starter. So you can either hope the #18 and #31 picks of the world will become starters very soon, you can trade, or you can hope for free agency. If you trade, you have to give up something.

2. It is also a fact we need to get rid of 2 of our long term contracts (Powell, Wright, Curry, Maxi) until summer of 2021 to get max cap space in 2021. This will cost you at least #18 and #31. The risk you have by postponing it - #18 and #31 don't have immediate impact, so you will have to use 2025 and 2027 FRP to dump that salary.

Level of unrealistic evaluation of our assets is just mindblowing here. When looking at other players, they can only get worse or are an injury liability. When looking at our players, which with the exception of Wright and Jackson all had carreer years, they can only get better and it is impossible for them to get injured. 

Take a look at Curry for example. I love the guy. BUT. He literally had two ok seasons in his career, he is 30 years old, he has a history of injury problems, he only has one elite skill (shooting), while he is meh in everything else and defensive liability. 

Maxi. 28 years old. Plays solid defense. BUT. Extremely limited offensively, basically to catch and shoot three pointers (two thirds of his attempts are three pointers). Meh rebounder. Had a good shooting regular season which failed him completely in the playoffs, making him useless on the offensive side. 

Both Maxi and Curry have ok contracts. But you can't really claim someone would see them as more than they are. Good role players. As a team, our most glaring need is to improve defense, while not sacrificing a lot of offense. So I really, really don't understand what is so confusing when players like Oladipo and Richardson are being discussed. Both have been better players through their careers than our role players in their peak season. Their peak season was way above Curry or Maxi peak season.

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(10-20-2020, 03:05 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]One S/W of Powell and a small trade of 5.7 mil gets you right at Giannis max (*If the cap stays at 109). Literally just a Wright/Kleber/Curry trade with 3 mil less coming in and the Mavs are there. That can happen in an instant.

That is just not true. Dan did a calculation a couple of times. You get to get rid of two of those guys to get to max cap space. So two out of Curry, Maxi, Wright and Powell need to be gone completely. We have 84 mil of guaranteed salary in 2021, not counting the rookie deals we might get (let's say add 3,5 million if you sign both #18 and #31). And of course not signing any long term money in 2020.

(10-20-2020, 03:05 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Have the best possible product to show to Giannis rather than strip the team down and pray.

I don't think anyone is promoting this option. Trading longer term players for (better) short term players is not stripping down. It just gives options in 2021.

No one is over evaluating our assets. If you find that mind blowing, I fear that a light breeze may blow you over. Curry, Maxi and DFS are good role players on good contracts. That makes them somewhat desirable and easy to move assets. Our cupboard is so bare on assets that we need to be very careful how we use them.

Josh Richardson is an offensive liability who plays solid defense and provides hustle. He's a role player. That sounds like the type of guy a team should target in any draft rather than giving up a draft pick and a good role player with an elite talent. Like I said, I understand the Oladipo idea even if I'm opposed to it. Play for both guys is trending the wrong direction (regression).

(10-20-2020, 03:21 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]That is just not true. Dan did a calculation a couple of times. You get to get rid of two of those guys to get to max cap space. So two out of Curry, Maxi, Wright and Powell need to be gone completely. We have 84 mil of guaranteed salary in 2021, not counting the rookie deals we might get (let's say add 3,5 million if you sign both #18 and #31). And of course not signing any long term money in 2020.

If the cap is 109 mil, and the Mavs have the exact same roster as we're working with today (so not counting the 2 picks in this years draft), the Mavs team salary going into 2021 free agency will be $87,791,007 if they renounce everyone and x4 roster holds at 900k. Stretch waiving Powell would leave us with 4,432,050 of dead money, plus an additional 900k empty roster hold, which puts the overall team salary at $82,042,932. Giannis max will be $32,700,000 if the cap is 109 mil. Which means the Mavs need to have $76,300,000 in space. $82,042,932-$76,300,000 is $5,742,932 that needs to be cleared to have enough room for Giannis' max. 

Wright's contract- 8.5 mil
Maxi's contract 8.7 mil
Seths contract 8.2 mil. 

So I don't know what you're talking about. Even if you added 3.5m for the 2 picks (that are almost surely going to be traded), the Mavs would be barely 1 mil away from getting there. If a 2nd round pick is standing between you and Giannis, its a pretty easy choice. 

Either way, this is moot and missing my overall point. It doesn't matter what the Mavs booksheet is going into 2021. Cap space is something that can always be created. If the Mavs are 10 mil off of getting Giannis, you're telling me they couldn't find a trade partner for Maxi and Seth to get Giannis? Time and again we see all these big time free agents go to places that have to carve out space by shipping off role players. Mavs have a lot of value role players on controllable contracts. Things that many teams would love to take for free, and are a small cost in comparison to the ultimate prize of Giannis. As long as the Mavs don't bog themselves down with incredibly risky contracts the likes of CP3 and Westbrook, they can easily find trade partners if Giannis commits.

(10-20-2020, 03:05 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]The thing is, the Mavs shouldn't be pressured to create cap space this summer for 2021.

SO MUCH THIS.

That is why I think the only prudent plan is Plan ATTA (Accumulate Talented Tradeable Assets). If you have the right assets getting room is EASY if you need to go down that road (see Exhibit A, BOS this past summer getting Kemba room). But if you don't need room then you have assets that can play and make you better OR be used in a trade to make you better.

Clearing space for Giannis before we know he wants to come to DAL is very shortsighted IMO and burns many assets in the process.

(10-20-2020, 03:21 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-20-2020, 03:05 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Have the best possible product to show to Giannis rather than strip the team down and pray.

I don't think anyone is promoting this option. Trading longer term players for (better) short term players is not stripping down. It just gives options in 2021.

This is obviously the theory behind this idea.  Curry, Maxi and THJ all made Tier 5 in yesterdays The Athletic league-wide ranking of players (so 80-125).  None of them would have been there a year ago (thank you Luka).  As you said in your post...our guys are an inch away from being all-stars and everyone else's guys are broken down trash.  Anyway, they ranked Dipo (the current version) somewhere in the 50-60 range and said he'd be top 30-38 if he returned to form.  

I'm sorry, but Dipo DOES make this team better in 2020 AND the proposed deal gives you max room for 2021.  HIBW's.

As to the salary math, let's keep it simple.  Status quo is $93mm.  That includes KP, Powell, Luka, Maxi, Wright, Curry,  DFS, Brunson, 18, 31 at a second year minimum using some of the MLE), the WCS hold of $2.9mm and $900k for two empty slots to get to 13.  It is easier to follow if you just include the who kitchen sink.  We need to get to $76.4 and so $16.6mm has to go.  Wright is presumably $8.5mm of that, so find the other $8.1mm.

(10-19-2020, 10:37 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-19-2020, 06:53 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I enjoy that @"omahen" and myself finally found common ground after all this time.

Oladipo - make it happen Donnie!

May I join the party? 

I think if done right that Oladipo might be the ultimate HIBW's deal.  You have to keep THJ so that both he and Dipo (and Jackson) are expiring.  Otherwise, it isn't a HIBW's deal.  If you do Wright/Curry and 18 for Dipo, you can sell the fan base on the former two time all-star as improvement.  Maybe it will be.  Dipo has every reason to play his butt off here.  I actually think the bigger risk is that he's fantastic and we are too good.  Let's say we make the WC finals.  Do you blow up 2/5th of your starting lineup (THJ and Dipo) to take a shot at Giannis?  What happens if he picks somewhere else and Dipo and THJ are gone by the time you circle back.  

The key here is moving on from Curry and Wright.  KP, Powell, Luka, Kleber, DFS, Brunson, 31 (3 year deal using part of MLE), the WCS hold and the right amount of minimums leaves $32.7mm on a $109.1mm cap.  Sound familiar?  Yes, that is a Giannis max.   

Are you more competitive in 2020?  Probably.  Health will determine.
Does it make you look like a serious player to fans and to opposing players?  I think so.
Can you create the necessary Powder to land Giannis?  Yes

Are we giving up a fan favorite (who has his own injury history) and a 50/50 shot at a replacement level player?  Yes.
Do I mind for Oladipo.  No.  This isn't about him.  It is about preserving your shot at Giannis while trying to improve in 2020.  HIBW's.

I don't think it will take Curry to get Curry to get Dipo. To me the right trade is 18 + THJ.

My hunch is that Mavs are trying to figure out how to do something additive without parting with one of their assets, with THJ being the only guy on the bubble. They would be happy to use picks + filler to add a good player and I think for the right player (ie Dipo) they would include THJ. I just have a feeling Maxi and Curry-types are off the table absent a huge no-brainer type upgrade (ie star player in return). Even parting with THJ will require a clear upgrade.

Can't we just trade Hardaway/18 for Dipo and figure the cap moves after we get an agreement (if everything goes well, Dipo IS our '21 max FA), like every smart team does (Heat/Warriors)? If we can use 31 to dump Wright, fantastic. I'm sure we can trade Curry/Powell/Maxi in '21 with a protected 1st or multiple 2nd rounders.

One silly question. If we trade for Dipo, we probably have to lose his rights in '21 to get to the max money. Can we go over the cap to re-sign him (greedy superteam)?

(10-20-2020, 09:40 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]My hunch is that Mavs are trying to figure out how to do something additive without parting with one of their assets, with THJ being the only guy on the bubble. They would be happy to use picks + filler to add a good player and I think for the right player (ie Dipo) they would include THJ. I just have a feeling Maxi and Curry-types are off the table absent a huge no-brainer type upgrade (ie star player in return). Even parting with THJ will require a clear upgrade.

I agree that they would move THJ in the right move, but Oladipo isn't that. Is he a potential upgrade, replacing THJ? Sure, and I can see how you think exchanging THJ for him is cleaner, but I don't think they'd even consider that. That's essentially paying #18 and my expiring mediocre SG for another team's expiring mediocre shooting guard, only the new one has fit/injury question marks. If that's the deal, I just let THJ expire here and go back to seeing what I can get for Wright/#18.

The point is a potential positive for this season while simultaneously improving your cap situation. If Wright or Powell is not outgoing in a deal like this, I don't do it, and I certainly don't pay #18 for the privilege. I hate to say it, but I think Wright/Curry?#18 is 100 times more likely if the target is Oladipo. I'm not saying I'd do it, but I think that's probably the deal to consider, as it appears to accomplish the Mavs' goals and is plausibly productive for Indiana, too.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM...MmM0?hl=de&ved=2ahUKEwjno4X2scPsAhXQ4IUKHZfYC7wQjrkEegQIBhAF&ep=6

From 51:30 min

(10-20-2020, 09:48 AM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]Can't we just trade Hardaway/18 for Dipo and figure the cap moves after we get an agreement 

Yes, but again, I think people who assume the Mavs would prefer Oladipo in the lineup over THJ need to pump the brakes. They might, but I can imagine them being extremely averse to the risks involved with a straight up deal in this situation. 

The POINT of the trade (at least in part) would be the expiring contract, so it makes little sense to trade an expiring contract for him. If it's talent for talent only, there are other deals I'd rather make.

So I hadn't seen this:

https://thesmokingcuban.com/2020/10/20/m...n-trade/3/

Dipo for Wright, Jackson, Boban, 18 and 31. I do believe that if we are sending them trash (ie Wright, Jackson) then they are going to need both 18, 31. That would be an awesome trade.

I still think wouldn't the Pacers rather get THJ who would be an asset? I guess it just depends what the other offers are but the above package isn't bad.

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So responding to @"KillerLeft" and @"DanSchwartzman" the above trade pitched on Windhorst's podcast would definitely be HIBW and an easy decision on the part of the Mavs.

(10-20-2020, 09:56 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I still think wouldn't the Pacers rather get THJ who would be an asset? I guess it just depends what the other offers are but the above package isn't bad.

So, some of us don't believe Oladipo is even a good player anymore. You do, so let's use that as a baseline for a second. Assume he's good. 

If he's good, why would Indiana move him at all? Because they can't/won't pay him enough to keep him after the season, or maybe because they know he's off to a different market regardless of what they offer, right? 

How does acquiring another player in that exact, same situation (Hardaway) accomplish anything for them, if that's the case? Yes, #18 helps, but it's not much. I actually think that IF these talks happen at all, it's because the Pacers WANT Delon Wright to go WITH #18. He's the type of player a small market team covets. Usable on the floor, cost controlled, good chance to keep him long term. You throw Curry in (similar situation) and I think they do it right away. I actually think there's a world in which they view Powell as a desirable addition, even. 

You are free to disagree with my evaluation of what Indiana's goals might be, because we don't know them for sure. But to me, it makes no sense that they'd want to turn an expiring, unclear situation into ANOTHER expiring, unclear situation. If they're willing to let the asset expire, they'll just keep Oladipo, imo.