Looking at the Knicks cap for next year
Randle 26.1
Fournier 18.0
Rose 14.5
Barrett 11.0
Burks 10.0
Noel 9.2
Kemba 9.1
Reddish 6.0
Toppin 5.3
Gibson 5.1
Robinson 3.4 (caphold)
Quickley 2.3
Grimes 2.3
============
122.3 (projected cap 119.0)
Say Brunson signs a 84/4 starting at around $17M/year. That means the Knicks need to shed around $20M in salary.
They´d probably like to dump Kemba and Burks.
So you can ask yourself how much that would cost instead of a direct (sign and) trade with the Mavs. I think two first round picks (one protected/one unprotected) is a pretty realistic scenario.
Furthermore the Knicks might like to shed some salary like Kemba for an additional asset.
So to sum it all toward a Knicks/Mavs trade that comes out to
Brunson for Grimes + Mavs 2023 1st round pick (that´s the protected pick), the Knicks 2023 1st round pick (that´s the unprotected pick) + Kemba (into the TPE)
Trading for Reddish actually improved our position, since it adds $6M to the Knicks 2022/2023 cap.
With all the talk about losing Nash Brunson for nothing it got me thinking.
Player A - Year 4 - 27.4 MIN - 47.7 FG% - 40.3 3P% - 2.2 REB - 4.9 AST - 1.8 TO - 8.6 PTS
Player A - Year 5 - 34.1 MIN - 48.7 FG% - 40.6 3P% - 3.2 REB - 7.3 AST - 2.9 TO - 15.6 PTS
Player B - Year 3 - 25.0 MIN - 52.3 FG% - 40.5 3P% - 3.4 REB - 3.4 AST - 1.2 TO - 12.6 PTS
Player B - Year 4 - 30.9 MIN - 50.5 FG% - 34.1 3P% - 3.8 REB - 3.8 AST - 1.6 TO - 16.0 PTS
(01-16-2022, 10:06 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at the Knicks cap for next year
Gibson 5.1
Thanks for putting in the work. One minor change. Gibson is non-guaranteed.
If you don't count Robinson's hold (not sure what NY will do there), then all they have to do to get the space you mentioned is move Rose (that would be quite easy to do and would bring back an asset). Brunson at that dollar amount is well within their reach.
(01-15-2022, 09:05 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]AMEN.
I think two things are happening here:
1) People are failing to value JB as highly as he should be (maybe because Mavs fans have been so used to assuming we have no assets others want).
2) How much leverage Nico has in this situation. Nico can literally just sign JB this summer (I don't think JB would do the Mavs wrong and just walk, especially if the contract is slightly better than others can offer) and then trade him later. OR Nico can trade JB to any number of teams.
It frustrates me how Mavs fans are ready to ship him off. He has Jason Terry type shot making and is a big part of our culture. I am not sure we can find a replacement for him unless its for someone like Lillard or an all star player but Lillard is 32 and is in the twilight point of his career.
I will continue to say that guys you move are KP or THJ. I may be willing to move Maxi depending on what I get but Brunson is a championship roster piece IMO. He is the second most consistent player on our team. I can even put him above Luka because he rarely misses games.
(01-16-2022, 10:52 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]With all the talk about losing Nash Brunson for nothing it got me thinking.
Player A - Year 4 - 27.4 MIN - 47.7 FG% - 40.3 3P% - 2.2 REB - 4.9 AST - 1.8 TO - 8.6 PTS
Player A - Year 5 - 34.1 MIN - 48.7 FG% - 40.6 3P% - 3.2 REB - 7.3 AST - 2.9 TO - 15.6 PTS
Player B - Year 3 - 25.0 MIN - 52.3 FG% - 40.5 3P% - 3.4 REB - 3.4 AST - 1.2 TO - 12.6 PTS
Player B - Year 4 - 30.9 MIN - 50.5 FG% - 34.1 3P% - 3.8 REB - 3.8 AST - 1.6 TO - 16.0 PTS
Obviously Player A is Nash and Player B is Brunson -- but what's more eye popping are Brunson's numbers as a starter
Nash - Year 5 - 34.1 MIN - 48.7 FG% - 40.6 3P% - 3.2 REB - 7.3 AST - 2.9 TO - 15.6 PTS
JB - Y4 Starter - 33.6 MIN - 50.7 FG% - 36.0 3P% - 4.3 REB - 6.8 AST - 2.0 TO - 19.0 PTS
(01-16-2022, 09:35 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Did you think I made a straw argument or statement? Let me know if I did.
I just think a chunk of folks do 1) undervalue JB and 2) underestimate Nico's good position here. Do you think those are false?
Straw man:
"Brunson for just a Mav's 1st rounder? No."
"Mav's fans today: 'We need to chip in Brunson!!' "
No one said either of these things (or anything close). It is a misrepresentation of what was said just like when I say "those who profess there is no risk here..." is also a misrepresentation. BTW, I know you know this. Just putting it out there as a teaching tool.
You said "Amen". I have no idea what you were 'Amen-ing'. I can surmise from the next sentence that you were conceptually supporting the idea that Brunson has "value" and not supporting the idea that people want to trade Brunson for very little return. So, this wasn't about you.
I do think there are two kinds of value that can be discussed. There is on-court value and trade value. They aren't necessarily the same thing and our impressions of what the collective board thinks are just opinions anyway. None of this is provable. You might say your "impression" is people here don't get how valuable Brunson is on-court. I might say that I get the "impression" that people here are over-valuing him as a trade piece or are under-estimating the risk he leaves for nothing. That's how conversations work and it is far different than saying "you people who want to give away Brunson for nothing...".
That helps no one and I'm a bit sensitive to it right now because your belief that that technique was used to misrepresent your positions was a factor in your disagreement with a very good member of this community who is no longer here.
(01-16-2022, 08:43 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]That means you have two choices. 1. Get value for him now (you know, dump him for nothing), or 2. Ride it out and hope.
Well I do think there's a 3: Communicate with Brunson now to determine his goals. It's different than Kemba because he's our own guy who we can talk to daily. And it's even different from Nash because Donnie is gone and Mark seems to have learned from that experience. So the good news is that I don't think #2 is even really on the table. I trust that Nico has a good understanding by now of what it will take to keep Brunson, and will either be willing to accommodate it or not. And if not, then he can work with JB to help both parties via trade.
Knowing Brunson's desirability around the league and the cap dynamics involved, I personally think he is worth more than a low 1st rounder in '23 (Dallas's own pick) to someone out there. Or at the very least, my initial asking price would be way higher than that and I'd be pitting multiple teams against each other in a bidding war for his Bird rights. Sure, other teams will need assurances from Brunson that he'll stay at a certain salary, but that's something that can be navigated. Maybe that better offer is an extra player or pick from NY. Maybe it's a more desirable offer from another team. Maybe Brunson's play makes him the key ingredient in our own offer for an even better player. And just maybe he and Dallas are completely on the same page and have every intention of riding this out well beyond this year. We'll see!
That last option may sometimes feel like "ride it out and hope" to beleaguered Mavs fans who have been burned in the past more times than they can count. But importantly, that's not necessarily the same thing that is going on behind the scenes. Nico may still be mostly a mystery to fans, but from what I've seen he doesn't really seem like a winging it type of person. Going back to his Nike days, he's a methodical relationship guy. One might even argue that he's the ideal person to be in charge of navigating a complicated relationship issue with a good young player that they want to keep under contract and away from the competition.
So personally, I feel pretty good about the Brunson situation right now. I'd love to have assurances that he'll be here past this year, but I have also not seen any evidence that he's anything but happy to stay. I do think that the tax situation is going to force some tough decisions at some point, but I'm not convinced that letting Brunson walk or trading him for below market value is necessarily the solution to that problem. But again -- we'll see. This will be an interesting test for Nico, for sure.
Agreed with Tyler. Yes there is quite a realistic chance that JB doesn’t sign here even if he gives assurances that he will. A lot of things can change in a matter of hours, let alone a few months from now.
So even if you get assurances, you have to explore what value you can get for him. At least in that scenario, I would try to ride it out if I get a really underwhelming offer since the risk that he might change his mind might not outweigh the reward coming back in to lose him.
The only way I absolutely trade him is if he has internally told the Mavs brass that he wants to move on, similar to what Reddish did.
I feel pretty solid on Jalen. Sure there is some unknown but hopefully the Mavs have been laying the ground work with him. If he was getting the minutes and opportunities that he was last year, I would be more worried.
He is now starting, closing games, getting close to 30 minutes a game and getting opportunities. He seems to have a good relationship with Kidd and he can hopefully play off a generation player. Will he be here for 10 years? I am not sure. But I think the Mavs are in a good spot to re-sign him if they handle things right.
I am really curious to see the starting lineup from last night. Hopefully we give it a good run. IMO it will give us a good impression of KP's value to the Mavs and his future here. If it works, we really need to upgrade Maxi's spot (not a slight at Maxi) and this team starts rounding into form. We have Hardaway, maybe Maxi, picks and some others to use in time. Finding this player will be tricky because he needs to do a lot of what Maxi does....just better at certain things. I do like we have some low cost guys on the fringe of our main rotation that in time could grow into solid rotation pieces. Most of these guys are young too.
I continue to like Green getting a chance to expand his game. It will not always be pretty. But I have liked seeing him be aggressive looking to score when the opportunity is there. It is good to see he is getting reps at doing this.
I don't see an avenue to get this player and I didn't realize he signed for so low, but if the Clippers falter, I would love to get Batum on this Mavs team. He would be a nice combo with Maxi. He has a player option next year. I don't see why the Clipps would move him but he would be an ideal sneaky acquistion if available.
After this WCS debacle and seeing as the rest of the roster is loved by our FO and fans, I'm confident we'll do the exact same thing we do every TDL: Watch Western Conference rivals get better while we stay content with what we have. Maybe a minor move involving the TPE. We'll watch as our team will show the same problems they've shown through out these two Luka/KP years. We'll make it into the post season, play really well but get knocked out in the 1st round. Then we'll complain about the lack of starter caliber players next to Luka/KP. In the offseason we'll re-sign JB and DFS and that will be our major moves.
This is our official rotation come postseason IMO.
Brunson/Doncic
Doncic/Hardaway
DFS/Bullock
Kleber/DFS
Porzingis/Powell
Doncic (38)
Finney-Smith (36)
Porzingis (32)
Brunson (30)
Hardaway (28)
Bullock (26)
Kleber (26)
Powell (24)
(01-16-2022, 08:43 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting fact, 1/3 of the picks in 2023 already have been traded and have protection on them. Trading for those picks doesn't help us trade 2022 and 2024 because we can't be sure the 2023 pick we might trade for will convey.
Wouldn't getting our own '23 pick solve that issue though?
(01-16-2022, 12:53 PM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]After this WCS debacle and seeing as the rest of the roster is loved by our FO and fans, I'm confident we'll do the exact same thing we do every TDL: Watch Western Conference rivals get better while we stay content with what we have. Maybe a minor move involving the TPE. We'll watch as our team will show the same problems they've shown through out these two Luka/KP years. We'll make it into the post season, play really well but get knocked out in the 1st round. Then we'll complain about the lack of starter caliber players next to Luka/KP. In the offseason we'll re-sign JB and DFS and that will be our major moves.
This is our official rotation come postseason IMO.
Brunson/Doncic
Doncic/Hardaway
DFS/Bullock
Kleber/DFS
Porzingis/Powell
Doncic (38)
Finney-Smith (36)
Porzingis (32)
Brunson (30)
Hardaway (28)
Bullock (26)
Kleber (26)
Powell (24)
What's your proposal as to what they should do?
(01-16-2022, 01:32 PM)chaparral Wrote: [ -> ]Here is a 7-step process from the Moneyball. But most here will not like it because step 1 is trade DFS and JB.
Taking a step back now and building some assets might set a more secure path forward towards a true championship contender
How to rework the Dallas Mavericks in seven steps - Mavs Moneyball
The article argues that one of the hottest teams in the league -- currently sitting at 5th in the West -- should sell off every asset but Luka, shut down their best player for the season, intentionally tank for multiple years, and bank on signing multiple max players some unspecified time in the future.
Pass.
(01-16-2022, 01:57 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]The article argues that one of the hottest teams in the league -- currently sitting at 5th in the West -- should sell off every asset but Luka, shut down their best player for the season, intentionally tank for multiple years, and bank on signing multiple max players some unspecified time in the future.
Pass.
The timing of that article was really bad. Apparently it was written a couple of weeks ago when we looked terrible and Luka just got hurt. I don't know why it was released so late and not edited, but it makes more sense in that context.
(01-16-2022, 01:59 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]The timing of that article was really bad.
For sure. But I'm glad they released it now. IMHO, the fact that it looks so comically misguided only a few weeks later highlights how shortsighted kneejerk reactions can be.
(01-15-2022, 07:15 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]It's not a finished project though and nothing is perfect. This team is more than a move or two away from being a contender. The prize to me is getting off of THJ. I'm not married to Robinson (though I think he's got a lot of upside) or Grant (but I'd take him over THJ). I'm also pretty skeptical that the Knicks would give up everything I'm asking for.
I'm not sure why we are in a hurry to get off THJ or Bullock contracts? For what? We are going to be over the cap regardless. THJ contract is descending, so it will grow in value as it ages. Bullock is not guaranteed in the third year. The only reason to get off either contract is if you are worried about the tax.
Earlier in the season when this team looked lost I was very skeptical Cuban would be willing to go into the tax. But now with them playing so much better, he might be more inclined. If we are willing to go into the tax, there really is no need to get off those contracts (although I would more than happy to trade THJ for a better fitting player).
(01-16-2022, 01:21 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]What's your proposal as to what they should do?
I'd go for the same move that has put UTA and PHO on top of the West. Adding a borderline All-Star to be Luka's backourt partner. A guy that can go get his and run the offense if needed and could play off the ball as well. Any potential deal to add a major piece into our squad involves getting our pick back, so if the Knicks are keen on getting JB, I'd deal him in return for our pick + Robinson/Kemba.
Right now that player is McCollum (expendable due to Simons' little run). Take a chance and run the with the Luka-CJ-KP tandem with Kemba as a 6th man. Re-sign DFS for the tax MLE (or full MLE if we can avoid it). After this summer we have all our picks to trade ('23 and further for another blockbuster if needed).
DAL in: CJ, Kemba, '23 DAL 1st.
NYK in: Brunson.
POR in: Hardaway, Robinson, Burke, '22 DAL 1st.
Luka/Kemba
CJ/Green
DFS/Bullock
KP/Kleber
Powell/Chriss (come '23 TDL this becomes our priority for upgrades, that starting PF/C to complement KP)
(01-16-2022, 08:43 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing to worry about here. No way Nash Brunson leaves us without compensation. His best friend Dirk Maxi is on the team.
Interesting that the Nash debacle comes into the conversation. No one was really saying Nash
wouldn't walk, or that Dirk's presence would be what would keep it from happening. But it's true no one was highly worried, and it was Cuban's
supposed willingness to spend what it takes, and his
supposed superior negotiating skill, that were the trump cards for Dallas.
What went wrong, and was never factored into the equation, was that Cuban would go cheap and play hard ball to try to get Nash to stay here for 75c on the dollar.
Part of the problem was that Cuban didn't think Nash was worth it, because he was a poor defender, and he also believed he was somewhat on his last legs as a player, due to injury concerns. Plus, he just assumed he knew how to win deals. So he bid accordingly.
When PHX bid way more, and Cuban (given an opportunity to simply match the deal) said 'no' so that Nash walked, Nellie and Donnie were stunned. Literally never saw it as a possibility.
Hopefully the Mavs are much better in negotiations these days.
(01-16-2022, 03:16 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]When PHX bid way more, and Cuban (given an opportunity to simply match the deal) said 'no' so that Nash walked, Nellie and Donnie were stunned. Literally never saw it as a possibility.
The way I remember it Phoenix offered him a deal above what MC would pay and said take it or leave it, but answer right now. Nash said yes on the spot and MC was publicly mostly upset that Nash didn't give him a chance to counter. This is a tactic he regularly uses now in Shark Tank.