(03-09-2022, 07:32 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I saw those trades and I don’t think it takes the other teams into account when making them as mvossman pointed out. I myself am not one to talk to with regards to a straight THJ for Holmes swap because I fought that fight not too long ago around here.
First, salary is not a fit, they have to add a player so none of these THJ for Holmes trades are actually a final product. Second, many around here ignore THJ reverting to the mean this year with his 3%. Is that permanent? Does Sac believe they get the 2 years of great % or what we got this year? One thing about Heild, even when he was publicly upset with his team, he still put up good shooting. THJ signed a new contract and crapped the bed. Coincidence? Maybe, but he won’t get much time to turn this season around with the injury. Also, it’s not about what we think, it’s about what the FOs around the league think and with this particular trade what the Sac FO thinks.
The second trade of PJ for a late FRP also doesn’t think about the other team. Sure they were shopping PJ because Bridges has shown to be the better player at his position for them. Shopping him is to get max value out of a guy that is first and foremost young (!). Also he’s too good to play the role he’s playing. They’re shopping him to get a missing piece to their championship team. They need a C desperately on that team, it’s no secret.
I appreciate what you’ve brought up in your comments, some things I didn’t know and added some perspective. For me I’m not going to pretend to know player values in the NBA. I don’t think it’s as easy as X = X. Relationships, agents, GMs, coaches all of it comes into play. I don’t know how SAC valued Holmes pre-Sabonis or post-Sabonis. I don’t know how the Mavs value THJ. Although, my guess would be that the Mavs value THJ even higher than they do Holmes FWIW. So maybe the whole thing is moot as the Mavs may want compensation coming their way. Who really knows.
I made a lot of something simple. I think PJ is available and I think the Mavs should look into the cost. I don’t have as strong of an opinion about Holmes but also think he is available and the Mavs should look into the cost. If I’m remotely close - then I love the lineup flexibility that I showed post-trade.
PJ may be available for a FRP or he may not. The Hornets may not want to give him a 15M+ extension next year like DFS just got. Some think Brunson should have been traded to the Knicks at the TDL for a FRP. Brunson > PJ imo. So, again, I don’t know exact player values but what I proposed doesn’t seem preposterous or the replies would have been more harsh.
Bottom line, adding PJ and Holmes is a move that I would celebrate and think those moves alone make the Mavs a contender next year and beyond. While providing the flexibility and depth that I laid out.
(03-09-2022, 08:36 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]I appreciate what you’ve brought up in your comments, some things I didn’t know and added some perspective. For me I’m not going to pretend to know player values in the NBA. I don’t think it’s as easy as X = X. Relationships, agents, GMs, coaches all of it comes into play. I don’t know how SAC valued Holmes pre-Sabonis or post-Sabonis. I don’t know how the Mavs value THJ. Although, my guess would be that the Mavs value THJ even higher than they do Holmes FWIW. So maybe the whole thing is moot as the Mavs may want compensation coming their way. Who really knows.
I made a lot of something simple. I think PJ is available and I think the Mavs should look into the cost. I don’t have as strong of an opinion about Holmes but also think he is available and the Mavs should look into the cost. If I’m remotely close - then I love the lineup flexibility that I showed post-trade.
PJ may be available for a FRP or he may not. The Hornets may not want to give him a 15M+ extension next year like DFS just got. Some think Brunson should have been traded to the Knicks at the TDL for a FRP. Brunson > PJ imo. So, again, I don’t know exact player values but what I proposed doesn’t seem preposterous or the replies would have been more harsh.
Bottom line, adding PJ and Holmes is a move that I would celebrate and think those moves alone make the Mavs a contender next year and beyond. While providing the flexibility and depth that I laid out.
In all honesty, a Holmes (maybe some draft compensation depending on the salary matching player) for PJ (and matching salary) is more reasonable than anything we could put together for a trade and seems like exactly what both teams would want.
With THJ, if the Mavs are trying to shop him, you can't go off of their perceived value of him, it's what the league will give for him or we get nothing at all (which may or may not be ok with the Mavs FO, depends on their desperation to get value with that money...kinda like KP).
Sure I think Sac and Cha will be shopping their players too, they just have a stronger case for their players as to who they are than we do with THJ.
(03-09-2022, 09:10 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]In all honesty, a Holmes (maybe some draft compensation depending on the salary matching player) for PJ (and matching salary) is more reasonable than anything we could put together for a trade and seems like exactly what both teams would want.
Hmm. You may be right. The idea of just the FRP is that CHA doesn’t want the additional salary. I think Holmes is only $12M/year though so not unreasonable.
(03-11-2022, 03:08 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]A good analysis as always
What Types of Players Win NBA Playoff Series? Do the Mavericks Have Enough of Them? - D Magazine
Brilliant article. The immediate issue may not be the elusive 2nd start (that we don’t have the assets for anyway), it may be improving or replacing the specialists with more multi-dimensional (Group 3) guys. He’s right that Dorian and Josh seem to have the best shot of moving into Group 3. They are both unassisted on about a quarter of their shots, but don’t have the usage (both are about 13.5 range and the criteria used was 15). Green probably has a better shot at getting to a 15 Usage given his ability to pass. There is nothing wrong with Dorian being the leagues best Group 4 player.
This is an interesting way to look at THJ. Will his usage stay in the 20’s when he returns to play alongside two ball handlers. It always has been and he’s always generated a fairly high percentage of unassisted scoring. Does he look better or worse with two PG’s? Is there even a role for him given the need for D and how well we do when DFS, Reggie and Josh are playing his position. Is there a world where THJ stays and some other wing leaves next season? I don’t see any way we have 3 PG’s AND THJ, Reggie and Green splitting the SF position. I’ve been trying to say for a while now that I could see Reggie being the outgoing guy.
It is an interesting question as to whether we need more than one rim runner. Is vertical spacing something you need for 48 minutes or just as a change up. The answer probably goes a long way in determining how interested the team might be in Holmes plus Powell.
(03-11-2022, 04:35 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]It is an interesting question as to whether we need more than one rim runner. Is vertical spacing something you need for 48 minutes or just as a change up. The answer probably goes a long way in determining how interested the team might be in Holmes plus Powell.
I think always having that threat helps to open up 3 point shooters as the defense sags to protect from the lob. I don't envision Holmes and Powell getting all 48 minutes of every game. Ideally we would have a more small ball C like a Collins or Harris (bigger PF types) that would take up some of their minutes at that big spot for stretches of the game. Maxi fits that description too, but while I've traditionally been a large supporter and come to his defense more than the other 2 (DFS and Powell), his injuries seem to get the better of him around this time and into the playoffs every year.
I'd also ideally want a more secondary ball handler type like a Collins or Harris from that spot since DFS is probably a permanent fixture, and even if he gets to that coveted 15 usage, he would be a low end of that type as opposed to fitting in as a best in the bunch #4. Our team would then be something like:
#1 - Luka
#1/2 - JB, SD
#3 - Big Wing acquisition
#3/4 - DFS, Green
#4/5 - Holmes
#5 - Bullock, Powell
That's a 9 man playoff rotation that would get out of the first round!
(03-11-2022, 03:08 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]A good analysis as always
What Types of Players Win NBA Playoff Series? Do the Mavericks Have Enough of Them? - D Magazine
"On the other hand, the specialists who do only one thing really well usually struggle.
Why? Because, as Myers put it, “in the playoffs, your first move is gone.” If your only move is to shoot the corner three or to roll to the basket, think what happens when the defense takes that away. "
This is what happened to Dirk when Nellie crushed him that infamous playoff series. Nellie took away Dirk's best moves and there was no answer left
(03-11-2022, 04:35 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Brilliant article. The immediate issue may not be the elusive 2nd start (that we don’t have the assets for anyway), it may be improving or replacing the specialists with more multi-dimensional (Group 3) guys. He’s right that Dorian and Josh seem to have the best shot of moving into Group 3. They are both unassisted on about a quarter of their shots, but don’t have the usage (both are about 13.5 range and the criteria used was 15). Green probably has a better shot at getting to a 15 Usage given his ability to pass. There is nothing wrong with Dorian being the leagues best Group 4 player.
This is an interesting way to look at THJ. Will his usage stay in the 20’s when he returns to play alongside two ball handlers. It always has been and he’s always generated a fairly high percentage of unassisted scoring. Does he look better or worse with two PG’s? Is there even a role for him given the need for D and how well we do when DFS, Reggie and Josh are playing his position. Is there a world where THJ stays and some other wing leaves next season? I don’t see any way we have 3 PG’s AND THJ, Reggie and Green splitting the SF position. I’ve been trying to say for a while now that I could see Reggie being the outgoing guy.
It is an interesting question as to whether we need more than one rim runner. Is vertical spacing something you need for 48 minutes or just as a change up. The answer probably goes a long way in determining how interested the team might be in Holmes plus Powell.
Yes, everything that guy puts out is awesome.
I don't see either DFS or Green being legit candidates for level 3. Dorian is a great 4 (which teams need) and I think Green is already a 4 (his passing offsets his limited 3 capabilities). This read really did alter my view of THJ. He is our only true volume scorer, and he has already shown he can do it in the playoffs (which is the whole point of this article). I'm starting to come around to the idea that our best (most likely) avenue to a 3 is to retain THJ next year.
This article didn't really cover defense, but I think when you talk about 4 and 5s, defense is a crucial element. In the playoffs I think you can get away with some offensively limited players
(specialists), but they have to give you value on the defensive end (in fact he does reference 4s as 3&D). I feel like your 4 needs to be a quality perimeter defender, and your 5 needs to be able to protect the rim.
I have tended to lump THJ and Bertans in the same group, but they really are not. Bertans is not a true volume scorer like THJ (especially in the playoffs), but he also does not fit into the 3&D group either from a defensive standpoint. Given his current minutes, I'm not sure he is going to be a consistent rotational player in the playoffs.
One of our biggest issues is that we are starting a flawed 5. Powell has not been terrible on defense, but the lack of rim protection and rebounding has been a real issue. Our top priority this offseason has to be getting a legit starting center. I am warming up to the idea of sending Bullock for Holmes if that gets it done.
(03-12-2022, 12:59 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I have tended to lump THJ and Bertans in the same group, but they really are not. Bertans is not a true volume scorer like THJ (especially in the playoffs), but he also does not fit into the 3&D group either from a defensive standpoint. Given his current minutes, I'm not sure he is going to be a consistent rotational player in the playoffs.
I don't think anything with THJ is any type of given this year for the playoffs. He was good-ish 2 years ago (35% from 3), he was great last year. This year he has been off and is in the chucker mold that he's been for most of his career. Is he reverting after 2 good years or is this year the anomaly going forward? Time will tell, but you're right that he doesn't bring the D we need from his position either which makes him less of a fit on this team.
(03-12-2022, 12:59 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm starting to come around to the idea that our best (most likely) avenue to a 3 is to retain THJ next year.
I don't think that is possible. Since our "1" is a guard and we have two "2" guards, the "3" has to be either a big wing or center. Unless you keep THJ and move one of our "2" for a center or big wing (interesting enough there are almost no centers or wings on the secondary playmaker list).
Assuming we are looking at "3", Iztok has following big wings or centers who might be available (in order): Harris, Oubre, Gallo, Boucher (FA). Looks like only Harris would be good enough of those to make sense.
THJ and Bullock for Harris would be a move that would consolidate our team nicely according to Iztok classes. Both would be an upgrade over whatever Philly has in "3" and "4" class atm.
(03-12-2022, 01:24 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]This year he has been off and is in the chucker mold that he's been for most of his career. Is he reverting after 2 good years or is this year the anomaly going forward?
I think coaching change is what caused his fall. Kidd wanted him to do more than just spot up threes and he was basically thrown in an inefficient chucker role again. Besides, he played a lot of his minutes in those terrible double center rotations from start of the season.
(03-12-2022, 02:06 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think coaching change is what caused his fall. Kidd wanted him to do more than just spot up threes and he was basically thrown in an inefficient chucker role again. Besides, he played a lot of his minutes in those terrible double center rotations from start of the season.
Those are good reasons, I think the emergence of JB and him losing the starting spot that he believes should be his (I am a starter). Also contributed to it.
I mean, is RC the only coach that knows how to get the best out of him? If so, pretty sure he isn’t coming back. That also won’t do much for other teams to think they can turn him around, which would mean he is a non-starter for any trade to any team other than maybe Ind.
How do they expect the Mavs to sign Robinson? We're only gonna have the capped MLE and NY might as well keep him at that price
(03-12-2022, 07:43 PM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]How do they expect the Mavs to sign Robinson? We're only gonna have the capped MLE and NY might as well keep him at that price
A Brunson for Robinson swap I guess would make sense if we fall in love with Dinwiddie as a starter level guy
I haven't watched Robinson enough to know how much sense that makes but his impact numbers are great
(03-13-2022, 01:21 AM)Jym Wrote: [ -> ]A Brunson for Robinson swap I guess would make sense if we fall in love with Dinwiddie as a starter level guy
I haven't watched Robinson enough to know how much sense that makes but his impact numbers are great
I have a feeling that's what we will see. Not that exact move. But, I think they will resign Brunson and trade him next year for a better fitting piece. I love Brunson. But, SD is a better fit for the team. They need a wing or a big like Robinson.
(03-11-2022, 04:35 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ] I don’t see any way we have 3 PG’s AND THJ, Reggie and Green splitting the SF position. I’ve been trying to say for a while now that I could see Reggie being the outgoing guy.
I agree that something has to give between THJ, Reggie, Green, and the slew of guards. Just too many guys and not enough minutes.
My only fear with losing Reggie is that despite his struggles, when he's on the court good things happen. I do think Reggie does a lot of little things. He calls out a lot of plays on defense. He rotates very well. He hustles almost as much as DFS.
He just makes winning plays even if his shot doesn't fall. Of course, Reggie shooting 20% from 3 drastically reduces his effectiveness, but I'd rather have Reggie over THJ (even if THJ is shooting 40% from 3).
I will say I'm going to be watching what CHA is going to do this offseason with Hayward. Bridges has come into his own and largely made Hayward irrelevant. He's injury prone and aging, but if we're looking to add a dynamic scoring wing, Hayward could be had for cheap.