Minutes will be tight, but it will be interesting to see how the Mavs value Green. Who they target in FA/trades may tell us some of the story.
Green, for the most part, was pretty positive in the second half of the season. I said prior to the playoffs that it was likely the playoffs would be too much for him. And it was. It happens to a lot of young players, but I think that is especially for a player with Green's skills and his weaknesses. You would like to see him continue develop on the court and not back to a deep bench guy. Going into the his third year, you would hope he would beat others out for playing time. Difficult with guys with big contracts in front of him. Last year, I said he would be behind my internal development chart if he didn't earn playing time. They signed Sterling but I said he should beat out Brown for playing time. He did. Now in his third year is where you want to see a jump. With limited playing time, that is going to be hard.
So start of the season may be hard for him for playing time, if he is still here. But if he is not a regular part of the rotation after the trade deadline, then I would consider that a bad sign.
edit- Let me add that Green does some unique things on this team. Plus, he is the type of low contract this team will need to fill out the roster too. I think he is 50/50 if he makes it here. He has the tools to be very good man on man defender, but he is not there yet. He is a little like a young puppy out there. He needs to understand leverage, body positioning and other tricks of the trade to go with his quickness and activity.
His shooting is a big concern. I said last year he was not as bad of a shooter as he showed last season. I am not sure he is as good as he finished this year. Some of his misses and free throw misses were so off that it gives me pause.
Lastly, for such an athletic guy, he looks pretty unathletic trying to score at the rim. This is my big concern for him. There are time where I want to see him use his body and length and seal a defender off at the rim. He really is really lacking at this right now.
(06-20-2022, 12:46 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]1 That's wrong. Minutes and likely role do matter if you want to get GOOD players to sign here.
2 Let's be real, adding an "all-star wing" via free agency is not an option anyhow.
While we can argue that they MIGHT find a marginally more desirable wing than Bertans or THJ for the txMLE (then again, they might not), the reality is that, given the contracts and ability, they are not going to consign THJ and Bertans to the 10-minutes-or-less club -- and once you've given them even 10-15 each, there's not enough left to entice a good player to come aboard.
BTW, I'm not saying that THJ and Bertans MUST be the backup wings ...but only that any replacement would be coming as a result of a trade of at least one of those guys.
1. Where did I say that minutes don´t matter? I said that the Mavs have minutes available. I said they need to be earned. I do not consider Frank or Green for any kind of given role right now. And we already saw that despite his big salary Bertans (remember that he didn´t come here as an asset) was a part of the 10 minutes or less club. That leaves THJ. A player that is limited to the SG/SF role.
2. Where did I say that? I said the Mavs don´t have one right know. That´s why I am talking about available minutes for a potential free agent signing. Only current Mavs wing that is a given for 30+ minutes is DFS. Even Bullock is more of a 25 minutes per game guy (Has been in that kind of role for most of his career). There is room for at least one more guy in the same category.
I don´t know where all these strong opinions are coming from. This is the first full offseason for the new crew. Recent reporting that I have seen mentioned the Mavs search for another wing. That´s what I am going with. Not ruling out any scenario that adds a wing to the current roster.
Would Sacramento be interested in Tobias Harris?
IF SO:
Philly sends:
Harris (36.0) to Sac;
Thybulle (2.84) and D. Green (10) to Dall
for
THJ (21.3), Bertans (16) and Mo Harkless (4.4)
Sacramento sends:
Mo Harkless (4.4) to Philly;
Barnes (20.2) and Holmes (10.4 TPE) to Dallas
for
T. Harris (36) Josh Green (3)
Dallas sends:
THJ (21.3), & Bertans (16) to Philly
Josh Green (3) to Sac
for
D. Green (10/?); Thybulle (2.84); H. Barnes (20.2); R. Holmes (10.4/TPE)
Dallas would create a $13.16 mill TPE for the difference between Thybulle and Bertans.
Ultimately this is really only useful if Dallas can get Green non-guaranteed or possibly not involve D.Green at all...
The massive uptick for Dallas is that everyone but Holmes is expiring and really cleans up the Porzingas and THJ deals.
Looking down the road, Dallas could conceivably upgrade later using Barnes and Powell as a MASSIVE expiring package.
(06-20-2022, 12:28 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Agreed. This isn't that hard if we don't attach dollars and draft status and strictly make this a meritocracy.
Wood Maxi
DFS Big Wing
Bullock THJ
Brunson
Dinwiddie
Luka
From there, Powell, Dragic, Greenikina, and Bertans fill in specific roles as needed. Maxi isn't a 3/4 and neither is THJ. Taurean Prince is and so are some other people who likely fit that $6mm slot we have available. There are some minutes to be had there.
I moved your backups in your chart to where I think they really fit. In the wrong places, it blurs the situation. You had Maxi sliding down to the 4, but if you think about it, that makes your big wing "hole" even smaller -- so I moved him to the backup big. I moved THJ up to the wings only - he's not a point, and won't be replacing any of the Mavs' big 3 there.
I don't disagree with a meritocracy idea. There are certainly some specific players I would love to have by using the txMLE, and good enough that I would just figure it out later on the minutes. Not sure any of them would want txMLE, but I don't mind letting them know we like them enough to offer every penny we can offer, and we can see them having a real place to contribute next to Luka and friends. Some are PF-ish wings with some defensive grit and who can make 3s; others are traditional centers who rebound/defend enough to be worth having a 4th big on the roster, where you end up having to use Wood or Maxi at the 4 with some regularity.
OTOH, I still don't think there's much of a minutes hole at the "big wing" behind DFS. DFS played 33 mpg last season, and if/when you also will be giving some PF minutes to Bertans when you need a sniper (and in a meritocracy, you will need that and he will be the guy), what's left? The big wing "problem" is really just a sliver of minutes, with plenty of other in-house ways to fill them.
I also think they will have an ongoing secondary agenda to cover, which is to spur development and trade values, for future needs. That's one reason I think it makes sense to give enough backup minutes to THJ and Bertans, so that their value to you gets better but also the perception of their desirability and trade value is enhanced. I suspect the Mavs will be shopping again at the TDL and then in summer 2023, and better assets to trade brings suitors with things you need.
What if we added Josh Green for K. Martin Jr. to that HOU trade? He requested a trade to get more minutes, not sure he'd fit perfectly here, but he's more ready than Josh.
https://twitter.com/KellyIkoNBA/status/1...wcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2189874start%3D900
(06-20-2022, 01:49 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]1. Where did I say that minutes don´t matter? I said that the Mavs have minutes available. I said they need to be earned. I do not consider Frank or Green for any kind of given role right now. And we already saw that despite his big salary Bertans (remember that he didn´t come here as an asset) was a part of the 10 minutes or less club. That leaves THJ. A player that is limited to the SG/SF role.
2. Where did I say that? I said the Mavs don´t have one right know. That´s why I am talking about available minutes for a potential free agent signing. Only current Mavs wing that is a given for 30+ minutes is DFS. Even Bullock is more of a 25 minutes per game guy (Has been in that kind of role for most of his career). There is room for at least one more guy in the same category.
I don´t know where all these strong opinions are coming from. This is the first full offseason for the new crew. Recent reporting that I have seen mentioned the Mavs search for another wing. That´s what I am going with. Not ruling out any scenario that adds a wing to the current roster.
1 "Where did I say that minutes don't matter?" .....What you said, and what I replied to (quoting it to you), was: "
We need to get past the idea that the Mavs cannot add another wing because they don't have enough minutes."
That sounds to me like you were saying 'available minutes' aren't really something to consider. Or important. Or that they would matter to players looking for a home. When you now say that the Mavs 'have minutes available' then I would ask what minutes you think there are to offer. I've outlined the situation as I see it in detail, and simply saying 'Oh, there's plenty of minutes' is not really a reply.
You're simply thinking they would bench THJ? I will wager that's not close to reality, with plenty of reasons (any one of which would be enough):. He's too good. He makes too much money. He's been too useful for them in the past. They want to increase his trade value for later. Whether Bullock plays 30 or 25, the rest are logically THJ's (and probably still a tad lower than he's most likely to get).
2 "Where did I say that?" .... What you said in arguing the Mavs need to add another wing was: "
It's not like the Mavs have an all-star wing that is beyond any doubt" -- and what I replied (after quoting it to you), was: "Let's be real, adding an "all-star wing" via free agency is not an option anyhow." The point being, you won't be adding what you say you don't have, so that's not a relevant comparative standard to mention.
I too would like them to end up with a way better 2-way wing than THJ. But I think THJ almost certainly has to be sent out, in order to make that come to pass, both because of minutes and because of how salary usually mirrors ability, so a salary match will be how they get to that player's price point where they can have him. With them being shut out of SNT market, and with THJ needing to restore his perceived value, that may not be doable or feasible until TDL.
(06-20-2022, 03:46 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]1 "Where did I say that minutes don't matter?" .....What you said, and what I replied to (quoting it to you), was: "We need to get past the idea that the Mavs cannot add another wing because they don't have enough minutes."
That sounds to me like you were saying 'available minutes' aren't really something to consider. Or important. Or that they would matter to players looking for a home. When you now say that the Mavs 'have minutes available' then I would ask what minutes you think there are to offer. I've outlined the situation as I see it in detail, and simply saying 'Oh, there's plenty of minutes' is not really a reply.
You're simply thinking they would bench THJ? I will wager that's not close to reality, with plenty of reasons (any one of which would be enough):. He's too good. He makes too much money. He's been too useful for them in the past. They want to increase his trade value for later. Whether Bullock plays 30 or 25, the rest are logically THJ's (and probably still a tad lower than he's most likely to get).
2 "Where did I say that?" .... What you said in arguing the Mavs need to add another wing was: "It's not like the Mavs have an all-star wing that is beyond any doubt" -- and what I replied (after quoting it to you), was: "Let's be real, adding an "all-star wing" via free agency is not an option anyhow." The point being, you won't be adding what you say you don't have, so that's not a relevant comparative standard to mention.
I too would like them to end up with a way better 2-way wing than THJ. But I think THJ almost certainly has to be sent out, in order to make that come to pass, both because of minutes and because of how salary usually mirrors ability, so a salary match will be how they get to that player's price point where they can have him. With them being shut out of SNT market, and with THJ needing to restore his perceived value, that may not be doable or feasible until TDL.
Doubling down on a strawman. I mentioned the lack of allstar talent on the wings to highlight that non of the current rotation players are untouchable. I don´t think anyone would hesitate just because it moves guys like Frank, Bertans or Green out of the rotation. And I never said that I would bench THJ. I said that he cannot be the backup for DFS. But that obviously isn´t stopping you.
If you need the minute breakdown. I am basing my opinion on the playoff rotation.
DFS 39
Bullock 38
with 15-20 minutes for Bertans, Green, Frank
Reduce DFS´s and Bullock´s minutes. Let´s say DFS 30, Bullock 25. That´s already one big rotation spot. 20+ minutes. As mentioned I do not consider any minutes for the other three guys to be a given. If the taxMLE or any other move can bring in someone better that´s another big slot.
Anyway. That´s it from me on this topic. Find someone else for this BS.
(06-20-2022, 03:05 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I moved your backups in your chart to where I think they really fit. In the wrong places, it blurs the situation. You had Maxi sliding down to the 4, but if you think about it, that makes your big wing "hole" even smaller -- so I moved him to the backup big. I moved THJ up to the wings only - he's not a point, and won't be replacing any of the Mavs' big 3 there.
I don't disagree with a meritocracy idea. There are certainly some specific players I would love to have by using the txMLE, and good enough that I would just figure it out later on the minutes. Not sure any of them would want txMLE, but I don't mind letting them know we like them enough to offer every penny we can offer, and we can see them having a real place to contribute next to Luka and friends. Some are PF-ish wings with some defensive grit and who can make 3s; others are traditional centers who rebound/defend enough to be worth having a 4th big on the roster, where you end up having to use Wood or Maxi at the 4 with some regularity.
OTOH, I still don't think there's much of a minutes hole at the "big wing" behind DFS. DFS played 33 mpg last season, and if/when you also will be giving some PF minutes to Bertans when you need a sniper (and in a meritocracy, you will need that and he will be the guy), what's left? The big wing "problem" is really just a sliver of minutes, with plenty of other in-house ways to fill them.
I also think they will have an ongoing secondary agenda to cover, which is to spur development and trade values, for future needs. That's one reason I think it makes sense to give enough backup minutes to THJ and Bertans, so that their value to you gets better but also the perception of their desirability and trade value is enhanced. I suspect the Mavs will be shopping again at the TDL and then in summer 2023, and better assets to trade brings suitors with things you need.
I would argue that Maxi is backing up both Wood and Dorian. In a playoff setting, those three are going to split almost all of the frontcourt minutes. In the regular season we have Powell and Bertans as depth.
From a playoff standpoint, I see Bullock starting and Timmy coming in when Wood goes out to keep 2 of Maxi/Dorian/Bullock on the court. That is not a lot of minutes for THJ. If Green takes another step that is even less minutes.
I find myself leaning towards needing to send Timmy out if we are going to invest anything into another wing. I love the idea of sending him out for Hart or Trent, but I don't think that happens. I would be ok with Timmy plus Bertans/Powell for Tobias or Hayward but I can see the arguments against and I don't know if that happens either. I hate to even suggest this because I am not a fan of the player, but an argument could be made for some kind of Timmy for Oubre trade. Timmy is the better player but Oubre is the better fit and he is expiring.
(06-20-2022, 04:12 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Doubling down on a strawman. .
No strawman, just answering what you appeared to be saying as I read it. If I misunderstood, was not intentional. The only reason I replied again was your "where did I say that" when I had QUOTED your words, so you would know exactly what I was replying to. So I showed where you said that.
I'm not looking for animus.
If you want to know what minutes I think you're missing, that gum up the works, it's the combo of DFS-RB-THJ in relation to what's available. I think you're focusing on debating things I think are peripheral anyhow (how much Green-Frank play), whereas to me the primary obstacle is the main 3.
I agree the longer rotations in the playoffs aren't really what's applicable. So I have been using the season-long averages for DFS-RB-THJ instead in my analysis, which were 33,28,30 respectively. I don't think DFS will get his minutes cut. Even if you force RB-THJ down to 25 each (an iffy idea imo), and only use Bertans 1 shift a game for 5 mins, and don't ever play G/F at all, you've only got 10 mins available, when 25-30 is what a good player is going to be looking for.
I think they
want the guy that will deserve and demand 25-30, and the only realistic route to that guy will be via trade.
(06-20-2022, 05:57 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I would argue that Maxi is backing up both Wood and Dorian. .
If so, it then leaves the soft spots at C backup (since Powell isn't playoff playable, and they also need to have an answer for the traditional center), and maybe Small Wing Backup (if THJ isn't up to a being a 2-way player).
I think the 1st can be solved by a Powell-Favors swap. I suspect the 2nd will have to wait until TDL, to allow THJ to prove to other teams he is healthy and is worth having for the ones who need scoring skills.
I also see potential in a THJ-for-Favors/JaGreen deal, which solves C and PF and leaves a small hole at backup Small Wing, which could be solved by some combo of DFS at SF, some 3-creator lineups, with perhaps Green/Franky and/or Dragic used too. The downside to that idea is that it doesn't reliably add a new "playoff-playable wing" (I think JaGreen is very iffy) and you've used your ammo (THJ) that you had to get one.
(06-20-2022, 06:55 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]No strawman, just answering what you appeared to be saying as I read it. If I misunderstood, was not intentional. The only reason I replied again was your "where did I say that" when I had QUOTED your words, so you would know exactly what I was replying to. So I showed where you said that.
I'm not looking for animus.
If you want to know what minutes I think you're missing, that gum up the works, it's the combo of DFS-RB-THJ in relation to what's available. I think you're focusing on debating things I think are peripheral anyhow (how much Green-Frank play), whereas to me the primary obstacle is the main 3.
I agree the longer rotations in the playoffs aren't really what's applicable. So I have been using the season-long averages for DFS-RB-THJ instead in my analysis, which were 33,28,30 respectively. I don't think DFS will get his minutes cut. Even if you force RB-THJ down to 25 each (an iffy idea imo), and only use Bertans 1 shift a game for 5 mins, and don't ever play G/F at all, you've only got 10 mins available, when 25-30 is what a good player is going to be looking for.
I think they want the guy that will deserve and demand 25-30, and the only realistic route to that guy will be via trade.
That´s closer to the point I was trying to make. I really don´t care about FN, JG or DB minutes if they cannot earn them. If they earn them we can talk about a trade that removes someone that was in front of them in the depth chart.
I see THJ as a 20 minutes per game bench scorer. Maybe 25 but those minutes won´t be coming from the wings. Wouldn´t be suprised if he gets some SG minutes from the playmaking trio. Doncic, Brunson and SD combined for nearly 100 minutes.
That leaves a hole behind DFS. Showcasing Bertans is certainly an option but I am not sure if they have the patience. Mavs look like a team in win now mode.
And I don´t think veteran ring chasers would demand 25-30 minutes in the regular season. Might be a different story in the post season but that´s risk I would be willing to take even if some players aren´t happy with their role. Come playoff time the best guys are going to play. If that means a bigger name is going lose his spot. So be it.
Happens every year. Great teams bench guys on big contracts.
Not to mention that we are talking best case scenario. It´s a long season. Injuries happen. Players miss games. A lot of things happen. Another COVID outbreak or something else that we aren´t even thinking about right now.
Building off of a point @"DanSchwartzgan" made in another thread:
While I personally believe Wood was brought in to be the starting (and mostly full time) 5, it might be fun to consider the "what ifs" in a world where the opposite is true.
If we accept the hypothetical that the Mavs want Wood to play a ton of 4 and are still very much on the hunt for a more traditional center (again, at a commitment level of rotation or even starter) who would be some targets who still make sense, now that they have to fit with Wood?
I mean...
Luka
Brunson
DFS
Wood
?
What centers fit with that lineup?
(06-20-2022, 08:23 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Building off of a point @"DanSchwartzgan" made in another thread:
While I personally believe Wood was brought in to be the starting (and mostly full time) 5, it might be fun to consider the "what ifs" in a world where the opposite is true.
If we accept the hypothetical that the Mavs want Wood to play a ton of 4 and are still very much on the hunt for a more traditional center (again, at a commitment level of rotation or even starter) who would be some targets who still make sense, now that they have to fit with Wood?
I mean...
Luka
Brunson
DFS
Wood
?
What centers fit with that lineup?
You want to restart the Myles Turner discussion? That´s the protype. Protects the rim. Can somewhat move his feet and switch on the perimeter. Can stretch the floor on offense. Or the budget version with better perimeter defense. Mavs version...Maxi Kleber.
If you want to hear some rarely mentioned names. I would be willing to gamble on the development of Carter JR, Stewart or Achiuwa. They have the phyiscal attributes and good defensive instincts. Just need a more reliable 3-ball.
(06-20-2022, 08:23 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Building off of a point @"DanSchwartzgan" made in another thread:
While I personally believe Wood was brought in to be the starting (and mostly full time) 5, it might be fun to consider the "what ifs" in a world where the opposite is true.
If we accept the hypothetical that the Mavs want Wood to play a ton of 4 and are still very much on the hunt for a more traditional center (again, at a commitment level of rotation or even starter) who would be some targets who still make sense, now that they have to fit with Wood?
I mean...
Luka
Brunson
DFS
Wood
?
What centers fit with that lineup?
Just to be clear, Dallas under Kidd prioritizes D. Teams have better D when Wood is a four. Will he start at C? Maybe, but I think he will get some time alongside another big. Maybe that is just some time alongside Maxi. I just have a feeling that he’ll also get some time next to either Powell or a Powell replacement.
Something I”m keeping an eye on is who will move up to the #4 slot. Sac will want a veteran player and a pick a few slots down, but they have to send out matching salary to match the veteran. Maybe it is Holiday and Harkless…both expiring. But, given how things played out with Holmes, he’s very likely going out. The question is whether the team moving up to #4 wants/needs him for the years remaining on his deal. If not, Powell’s expiring might play a role on how #4 gets moved.
(06-20-2022, 08:10 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]That´s closer to the point I was trying to make. I really don´t care about FN, JG or DB minutes if they cannot earn them. If they earn them we can talk about a trade that removes someone that was in front of them in the depth chart.
I see THJ as a 20 minutes per game bench scorer. Maybe 25 but those minutes won´t be coming from the wings. Wouldn´t be suprised if he gets some SG minutes from the playmaking trio. Doncic, Brunson and SD combined for nearly 100 minutes.
That leaves a hole behind DFS. Showcasing Bertans is certainly an option but I am not sure if they have the patience. Mavs look like a team in win now mode.
And I don´t think veteran ring chasers would demand 25-30 minutes in the regular season. Might be a different story in the post season but that´s risk I would be willing to take even if some players aren´t happy with their role. Come playoff time the best guys are going to play. If that means a bigger name is going lose his spot. So be it.
Happens every year. Great teams bench guys on big contracts.
Not to mention that we are talking best case scenario. It´s a long season. Injuries happen. Players miss games. A lot of things happen. Another COVID outbreak or something else that we aren´t even thinking about right now.
I'm not sure we really disagree all that much, really.
I do think Bertans will be a contributor when he plays, not a gift recipient of minutes. But for the sake of exploring options, I don't have his minutes in ink.
I do think that
IF they can find a good 2-way PF who wants to be a Mav at a bargain price compared to his talent (MLE or less), and he comes without expectations where you can use him as much or as little as you like, then sure why not?
(06-20-2022, 08:36 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Just to be clear, Dallas under Kidd prioritizes D.
Agree. Question. Do the Mavs also prioritize 5-out? If that is the case I cannot see any investment into a non shooting big. Maybe a vet min or a rookie.
(06-20-2022, 08:41 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Agree. Question. Do the Mavs also prioritize 5-out? If that is the case I cannot see any investment into a non shooting big. Maybe a vet min or a rookie.
My theory is that yes, they absolutely do.
But, part of that is because they played Powell so little when things mattered most. To me, the offensive end is what drove that decision. I realize that for must of the board it was just assumed that this occurred because Powell sucks.