MavsBoard

(12-10-2021, 12:44 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]We can also trade 2025 if we lift protections from NY pick and I can quickly give two examples of late FRP traded.

1. Milwaukee paid 2025 and 2027 FRP for JRue (in addition to pick from I think 2020 draft) in 2020.

2. Denver paid 2025 FRP for Gordon a year ago.

Besides, I think such late FRP could have value. Who knows if Mavs will still be competitive then. It is very likely that next three picks will not be really high

Those are fair enough examples for sure although I would say that the Nuggets also included a lotto pick from that year so in a sense they offered an immediate first round pick (whether or not Josh Green had the same value as RJ Hampton when that trade was made I think is an interesting discussion because it kind of means we could have made the same offer if we lifted protections and Gordon would have fit great next to KP...)

To the point of lifting protections, I know that we can do this is theory but it also involves the Knicks agreeing which they don't really have incentive to since it probably wouldn't change much in their mind so it would most likely cost us at least another second.  I do agree that would put us in a much better position but I've always been curious what that cost would be.  I feel like I read the Nets did something similar in the Harden trade but never really pinned down what they had to do to make that work....

(12-10-2021, 01:43 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I am way ok with the Mavs betting on Brunson and DFS with long term deals. That's probably my favorite option. But, I don't think Cuban will pay a tax next season, so that would require others to be moved (thought not until next season's trade deadline, I guess). 

I am ok with the idea of moving one or both in a deal that has something helpful coming back, but I don't think Cuban will pay a tax next season, so I have a hard time seeing that happen. 

I am ok with the idea of letting one or both go to other teams and recouping some value through sign and trade, though I think this might be unlikely for the same cap reasons. Maybe something small, just to allow a room team to maximize their flexibility, but at that point how much of an improvement is it to just allowing them to walk? I guess we'll see. 

I am absolutely not ok with letting either DFS, Brunson or both (two of their top 4-5 players, anyway you slice it) walk away in free agency with nothing returning, and I kid you not, I feel like that's what we're headed towards. Cap room '23 is about to be the plan. It's plain as day. I hope I'm wrong.

We used to pay the tax during the Dirk years which does give me some hope that he will now that we have another franchise player again but I do agree with your concerns.  Really the main reason we didn't pay the tax was because we whiffed so hard with all our cap space that it made us so mediocre it never became worth it again but I like to think it is now with Luka.  Based on Cuban's twitter account though, his delusion is reaching Jerry Jones levels so who knows what he's thinking on that front but we're starting to get pounded by national media for our talent level and I hope he takes notice before Luka does.

Even if he does decide to pay the tax, I still see Brunson getting moved because I get the impression he wants to start and he's also the only valuable asset we have.  We can also pair him with either Maxi or Dwight or both as salary filler with up to 20 or so mil in expiring so in theory we could be offering Brunson, cap relief, future firsts, Josh Green and our 2022 pick in a kitchen sink offer.

On top of all this, Nico will want to put his handprint on this team at some point.

Things are certainly bleak currently and not very flexible for now but I think after this season we aren't as trapped into this roster construction as people are making out.

(12-10-2021, 02:39 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]Those are fair enough examples for sure although I would say that the Nuggets also included a lotto pick from that year so in a sense they offered an immediate first round pick (whether or not Josh Green had the same value as RJ Hampton when that trade was made I think is an interesting discussion because it kind of means we could have made the same offer if we lifted protections and Gordon would have fit great next to KP...)

To the point of lifting protections, I know that we can do this is theory but it also involves the Knicks agreeing which they don't really have incentive to since it probably wouldn't change much in their mind so it would most likely cost us at least another second.  I do agree that would put us in a much better position but I've always been curious what that cost would be.  I feel like I read the Nets did something similar in the Harden trade but never really pinned down what they had to do to make that work....

Not change much? What do you think the record of this team would be, if (worst case) Luka tore an ACL. We´d  be a lock to be a bottom eight team, which gives you pretty good lottery odds. It´s also said to be a generational draft. If I have the choice between top 10 or no protection, I just take it, and don´t ask questions.

(12-10-2021, 02:39 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]To the point of lifting protections, I know that we can do this is theory but it also involves the Knicks agreeing which they don't really have incentive to since it probably wouldn't change much in their mind so it would most likely cost us at least another second.  I do agree that would put us in a much better position but I've always been curious what that cost would be.  I feel like I read the Nets did something similar in the Harden trade but never really pinned down what they had to do to make that work....

As far as I noticed the price for lifting protection (Milwaukee was an example after lifting protection from pick owed to Cleveland) was 2nd round pick. Perhaps cash considerations would also do it. Of course this is something you pull when you have a trade for a great player lined up. So for example, if they have the option to trade for Jerami Grant, I guess you don't think much about lifting that protection. Obviously you don't do it for a fringe move.

I think limitations are just in our heads. There are plenty of options if the opportunity is there. You can also trade for 2023 pick. Perhaps switch 2022 and 2023 pick (sort of what Milwaukee did last season for Tucker). Mavs are so deep in trouble because of three wasted offseasons that they will have to be creative. This team is far from a little tweak away, imho.

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(12-10-2021, 02:39 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I would say that the Nuggets also included a lotto pick

Hampton wasn't a lotto pick, he was like 24 or something.

To add to my previous post. I think it is all about creating opportunities. It is a player driven league so convince someone he wants to go to Dallas. Then just work from there finding a deal that can satisfy his team. I think teams will at least to an extent listen to players wishes, especially if they don't want to be contending anymore.

(12-10-2021, 02:52 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Hampton wasn't a lotto pick, he was like 24 or something.

Oh ya this is my mistake, I kept thinking late lotto but that was Porter Jr the year before.

(12-10-2021, 02:52 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think limitations are just in our heads. There are plenty of options if the opportunity is there. You can also trade for 2023 pick. Perhaps switch 2022 and 2023 pick (sort of what Milwaukee did last season for Tucker). Mavs are so deep in trouble because of three wasted offseasons that they will have to be creative. This team is far from a little tweak away, imho.

Oh I agree with all of this and kind of hinted at the idea of us having more flexibility than people seem to admit in my response to KL.

I think some of the despair comes from the fact that we all acknowledge that we're far from a tweak away simply because of the state of the assets.  I do agree that getting rid of protections shouldn't be toooooo hard I would hope but feels like something we may botch as well and I think that adds to the despair at times.  I also agree that trading for a 2023 pick would be real nice, it's something I've been saying should be our top priority for a while now.  I honestly think we could be using Brunson to get our 2023 back from the Knicks if we wanted and we'd be in a better position big picture wise.

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(12-10-2021, 02:56 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]It is a player driven league so convince someone he wants to go to Dallas.

This hasn't happened for us since 2008 with Kidd...that's always been our biggest issue.

(12-10-2021, 02:50 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Not change much? What do you think the record of this team would be, if (worst case) Luka tore an ACL. We´d  be a lock to be a bottom eight team, which gives you pretty good lottery odds. It´s also said to be a generational draft. If I have the choice between top 10 or no protection, I just take it, and don´t ask questions.

We're only trying to do this though if things are going well and we have a chance to pair another star next to Luka using our 2025 pick, so in that scenario the Knicks would simply be helping us facilitate a trade that could create another contender in a league already full of them.

(12-10-2021, 03:03 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I honestly think we could be using Brunson to get our 2023 back from the Knicks if we wanted and we'd be in a better position big picture wise.

I think if NY sees him as long term solution, that is not a high price to pay for them. They could clear cap space in the summer but it would also cost them something. They also want to be competitive now. Robinson and 23 FRP would be an absolute win, imho, if they can see Robinson as useful. He probably is better than our current center line.

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I think Mavs need a series of smart trades, at least somehow related to eachother. Like we discussed - trade Brunson for that 23 FRP, but not just because of the pick, but because you already know where you will use that pick.

(12-10-2021, 03:07 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think if NY sees him as long term solution, that is not a high price to pay for them. They could clear cap space in the summer but it would also cost them something. They also want to be competitive now. Robinson and 23 FRP would be an absolute win, imho, if they can see Robinson as useful. He probably is better than our current center line.

Oh ya, totally agree and didn't mean to come off as simply Brunson for the pick straight up.  I think what you mentioned is a very fair trade and if they're looking to get back front court depth after losing Robinson you could always include Powell and take back Kemba.

(12-10-2021, 03:03 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]This hasn't happened for us since 2008 with Kidd...that's always been our biggest issue.

I know, that is their achiles heel. Somehow it doesn't seem there is anyone who wants to go to Dallas, unless they overpay. And since they are not really playing well, it is that more difficult to convince someone they are one piece away and that he is really going to an evironment where he will be in a winning position.

(12-10-2021, 02:49 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]Things are certainly bleak currently and not very flexible for now but I think after this season we aren't as trapped into this roster construction as people are making out.

I hope you're right!

(12-10-2021, 03:12 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I know, that is their achiles heel. Somehow it doesn't seem there is anyone who wants to go to Dallas, unless they overpay. And since they are not really playing well, it is that more difficult to convince someone they are one piece away and that he is really going to an evironment where he will be in a winning position.

Personally, I think it has a lot less to do with how we're playing and more a side effect of building our team around Euro phenoms for the last two and a half decades in a league dominated by players who have grown up together in AAU environments.  Not saying it's like a bad idea to grab those players, just saying it's collateral damage.

I think guys like Zach Lavine and KAT and Bradley Beal know that if you paired them with Luka you'd be creating a problem for the rest of the league but they're simply closer to other guys that they could say the same thing with.

Honestly, Denver just never recovering from their health issues may be the best way for us find a superstar who wants to play with his buddy Luka....

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(12-10-2021, 03:19 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I hope you're right!

Unfortunately for all of us, being right about this requires Mark to sell some bitcoin.

I think what it has come down to for the last decade is FRONT OFFICE COMPETENCY. People always mention things like winning culture, player connections etc. It plays a part, but I think a rather small part. What matters is that a top player feels your front office knows what it is doing.

I fear our reputations with agents is firmly in the bottom 3rd of the league. Add in some questionable comments that Cuban makes and it becomes difficult to sign top level free agents or convince them to force a trade to Dallas. Maybe Nico will prove himself to be a capable GM, sort out our FO mess and if he shows competency on top, then we will be going places.

(12-10-2021, 03:29 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]I think what it has come down to for the last decade is FRONT OFFICE COMPETENCY. People always mention things like winning culture, player connections etc. It plays a part, but I think a rather small part. What matters is that a top player feels your front office knows what it is doing.

I fear our reputations with agents is firmly in the bottom 3rd of the league. Add in some questionable comments that Cuban makes and it becomes difficult to sign top level free agents or convince them to force a trade to Dallas. Maybe Nico will prove himself to be a capable GM, sort out our FO mess and if he shows competency on top, then we will be going places.

From the comments from the Bucks ex-Executive, most front offices don't even want to work with us.  And when we do work out trades, it seems like we've been on the short end of the stick.

This team has basically two startling-level players, Luka and KP(on his good days). Playing with Luka and Carlisle massively inflated some players' apparent talent, and the result is that the Mavs overpayed a bunch of bench players without understanding what was going on. So now with a bad coach it's apparent what this team actually is, one of the most talent-starved franchises in the entire league.

This team needs to be blown up, which means at least 2 years of pain... but it sure seems like that would happen anyway. Nico has to be much, much better than Donnie was, or Luka will be gone, and sooner than we think.

(12-10-2021, 11:31 PM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]This team has basically two startling-level players, Luka and KP(on his good days). Playing with Luka and Carlisle massively inflated some players' apparent talent, and the result is that the Mavs overpayed a bunch of bench players without understanding what was going on. So now with a bad coach it's apparent what this team actually is, one of the most talent-starved franchises in the entire league.

This team needs to be blown up, which means at least 2 years of pain... but it sure seems like that would happen anyway. Nico has to be much, much better than Donnie was, or Luka will be gone, and sooner than we think.

I agree with some of this, but not all of it. 

I think this is a team going through a coaching change (always harder than we think it's going to be) and going to a less experienced coach, no less. He's learning on the job with a new, young team. 

I think that Carlisle helped Luka shine in previous years by customizing the schemes to be as catered to him as possible (not that Luka isn't amazing in his own right, or that he wouldn't be great with any coach), and I think some of these guys did look better than they might actually be, but that's because of great play from Luka and customized roles, as you say. 

But, if that's true, then it works both ways. I think what we're seeing now is them looking worse than they really are for the exact, opposite reason. The entire mission for this coach, since accepting the job, was to prove the world wrong about Porzingis. They've sort of kind of done that, but to the detriment of pretty much everyone else. These are kind of the results I would've predicted with that approach, but I'll admit there have been times when it seemed like it could be more successful than I would've believed, so it has frustrated me more than I expected. I'm trying so hard to believe in the direction Kidd has chosen. 

They're not there yet, and that's clear. Maybe the answer is to switch some players out. Maybe the answer is to fire the coach. But maybe (and I know this is a tough pill to swallow for some) we just need to be patient and let them work some of this out. When the GM got fired in a messy, publicly embarrassing way and then the franchise's all time best coach quit, giving up the chance to coach what will probably be the most talented player he'll ever have access to, that should've told us something. People expecting an immediate improvement in team play (even if they end up being good changes in the long run) were pretty misguided, imo. Change takes energy, faith, and above all else, TIME.

I don't think anyone expected an immediate improvement especially given Kidd's track record.  Mavs were 42-30 last year and are currently  12-13  including losing 7 of the last 10.  A bunch of those games were against middle of the road teams and a lot of them were against opponents who were missing a star player.  The Mavs are dinged up too, granted but we really should have made hay in that stretch.  We are almost to the 1/3rd mark of the season and I think we can make some fair assessments.  Compared to last year, this team is disappointing and that's with KP seemingly turning his game around which should set off alarm bells.

How bad does everyone want a do-over on THJ?  We just handed him 18m a year to come off the bench.  He's shooting 32.4% from 3PT, which is his second worst shooting percentage since his first year in New York when his contract was wildly considered one of the biggest overpays in the league.

When do we start to think the poor shooting goes from a deviation from the norm to just being the norm?  

When does the Jason Kidd feeling out period end and we start being really critical of the rotations?  That goes well beyond Dwight Powell too.

And while we've dealt with some injuries, COVID hasn't swept through the team yet.  Luka also looks like he needs some games off to get his wheels right.  

The eye test should tell us this isn't a good team with how much they've struggled.  We can all argue how close are far away they are from being a good team, but I don't think anyone would call this a good team.  I have my preferences but I don't know the answers.  

I don't think they should or will fire Kidd.  And even if that came to fruition, who would you hire?

I understand the blow it up sentiment (I'm there already) and I can also see the value in stand pat or the tinker approaches.  No matter the path forward, we should all be a little nervous considering Nico's inexperience.

Yeah...even if THJ goes on a 10 game in a row 30+ points...I still consider him too streaky for his cap hit.

ThJ should use the midrange more to see if he is more consistent there than with 3's.

But yeah...he's way over paid for bad defense, streaky shooting and lack of being able to create due to bad handles.