MavsBoard

RE: Playoff Rotation Wing

To me this means a guy who is top 8 on the depth chart so that DP/FN/JG don't have to be counted on for the playoffs next season.

Luka
JB
SD
RB
DFS
MK
CW

I am struggling to think of a guy who can be signed as a FA this year that would confidently make the top 8.

(06-16-2022, 07:22 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]RE: Playoff Rotation Wing

To me this means a guy who is top 8 on the depth chart so that DP/FN/JG don't have to be counted on for the playoffs next season.

Luka
JB
SD
RB
DFS
MK
CW

I am struggling to think of a guy who can be signed as a FA this year that would confidently make the top 8.

As is, you'd have to include Hardaway on that list. Love him or hate him, he's absolutely the caliber of player who WILL be in that mix. 

So, if the Mavs agree with you about the free agent wings/forwards out there, especially in their price range, it might behoove them to move one of the guys on your list (any one of Hardaway, Dinwiddie or Bullock would make some sense to me in different ways, though Hardaway would probably be my choice) for that last impact addition. Sort of an "equal, but less redundant and filling a more specific need" move. 

Not sure whether they'll do that or not, but I bet Cuban would rather go that way than use that entire TP MLE on one player if he can help it, especially if they're finding the candidates for such a signing lacking.

I think they're pretty well suited at spots 9, 10 and 11 with Powell/Green/Ntilikina, as long as one of them doesn't get moved. Actually, I'd say that's a really GOOD trio for that range of your roster, given the experience they all have at this point. 

It's really just a matter of whether they'll add another rotation wing/forward or just roll with Hardaway at this point, imo.

(06-16-2022, 06:45 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I guess, but I still don't get the urge to do it at all. 

If we're worried about the emergency 3rd center, I'd say Powell can do just as well as Holmes in that role, and doesn't cause you to commit to money past this coming year. 

If we're thinking about not playing Kleber at the 5 anymore (meaning more backup 5 minutes are needed behind Wood) then I'd suggest we stop thinking about that and start thinking about better things. I thought this was Kleber's best season, post KP trade. I think he's in the exact role he should be - first big off the bench, playing mostly center. Heck, if Wood gets anywhere near 30 minutes per game when it matters, which is possible, Kleber is probably going to play plenty of 4 this season already, whether they upgrade Powell or not. 

Just seems like Holmes isn't needed here very much after this trade to me. Now they need a forward, imo. Grant, Isaac, or someone of that ilk. Tobias Harris would be fine if he didn't make so much money.

"Just seems like Holmes isn't needed here very much after this trade to me."

And Powell IS needed?

I was replying to the idea of just ADDING Holmes via TPE, and don't you agree that it would be better to send Powell out in that deal?

As far as whether Holmes makes sense in ANY way, it feels like you're worried about how all the minutes fit. I think your argument is that Holmes would be better than Powell, so that move would be bad. But at the same salary, I would rather have the better player, and worry about the fit later.

We know Powell can't help in playoffs. Holmes might. Holmes also provides some insurance against injury, and regarding 2023 free agency (when contracts expire for both Maxi and Wood).

On a bigger scale, I want pieces who can produce, on value-sized contracts. I think Holmes is much more likely to qualify, than Powell.

(06-16-2022, 07:30 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I think they're pretty well suited at spots 9, 10 and 11 with Powell/Green/Ntilikina, as long as one of them doesn't get moved. Actually, I'd say that's a really GOOD trio for that range of your roster, given the experience they all have at this point. 

It's really just a matter of whether they'll add another rotation wing/forward or just roll with Hardaway at this point, imo.

I don´t think you would disagree but that obviously doesn´t mean that they shouldn´t try everything to add another piece. Have 10 rotations worthy players. Great. Add more talent. That´s what great teams do. That´s how you end up with rosters like GS. They didn´t think we have Iggy, Klay, Wiggins and Kuminga. We don´t need more wing talent. They added OPJ on top of it.
It´s a luxury. And in the Mavs case a pricy luxury for Cuban. But it makes a difference. Especially in the regular season. One of them goes down with an injury and the team isn´t missing a beat. Next man up is a player that could start on another team.

(06-16-2022, 07:30 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I think they're pretty well suited at spots 9, 10 and 11 with Powell/Green/Ntilikina, as long as one of them doesn't get moved. Actually, I'd say that's a really GOOD trio for that range of your roster, given the experience they all have at this point. 

It's really just a matter of whether they'll add another rotation wing/forward or just roll with Hardaway at this point, imo.

You can question the journey there with less defense but I know that Warriors series would have been wayyy more competitive with THJ and Wood there to take pressure off Luka

So it'll be interesting to see how they juggle the offensive and defensive side of everything. Be nice to turn THJ, Powell, and assets into more of a 2 way player if possible

(06-16-2022, 07:40 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]And Powell IS needed?

I was replying to the idea of just ADDING Holmes via TPE, and don't you agree that it would be better to send Powell out in that deal?

As far as whether Holmes makes sense in ANY way, it feels like you're worried about how all the minutes fit. I think your argument is that Holmes would be better than Powell, so that move would be bad. But at the same salary, I would rather have the better player, and worry about the fit later.

We know Powell can't help in playoffs. Holmes might. Holmes also provides some insurance against injury, and regarding 2023 free agency (when contracts expire for both Maxi and Wood).

On a bigger scale, I want pieces who can produce, on value-sized contracts. I think Holmes is much more likely to qualify, than Powell.

Well, I was responding to the why of the total topic, not just your post. I think it was @"vfromlmf" who first pulled this thread, so I guess I'm responding to him as much or more than you. But, let me clarify.

I don't know that Powell, specifically, is needed, but I do think a 3rd center who can play will be needed at various points in the season, yeah. 

But, I suspect that role will be so small that Powell will be overqualified, and that the role literally won't exist in the playoffs unless there are injuries at the worst time possible or unless Wood is a big swing and a miss, fit wise. Both things are possible, but I don't feel like they're planning for that or that they should be, necessarily. 

If I'm right, and this is a small 3rd center role we're talking about, with Powell going from starting to "emergency only," it stands to reason that anyone we think is possibly an upgrade to Powell (but not enough of one to supplant Kleber or Wood) will be similarly overqualified and underused. 

BOTH Powell and Holmes make WAY, WAY too much money for this role I think we're talking about, but Powell is expiring soon, while Holmes has guaranteed years to go. I'd think they'd be looking forward to not paying anyone that much to be the 3rd center. 

For the reasons above, I struggle to imagine the Mavericks would be interested in Holmes at all, at this point. 

But, let me go a little farther with it. This next bit is separate from all of my logic above (which anyone is free to disagree with, of course):

I don't believe Powell was not played in the playoffs because he wasn't good enough in some general sense. I think they made a decision that their best route, offensively, was to get the opposing big out of the paint with Kleber, who can shoot. I also believe this thinking is manifesting right before our eyes into their plans for the immediate future. I think it's part of why they cooled on Gobert. To over simply the point, I don't believe they chose Wood from the list of all conceivably available centers, I believe they chose him from the list of all conceivably available centers who can shoot and help with spacing. This process would put Wood at the very top of the list, probably. I might be wrong about them thinking that way, but I don't think so. If I'm right, then I think it tells us two more things:

1) They aren't thinking about Holmes at all.

2) They are still planning to play Kleber a ton at center.

I suspect that those who are still clamoring for another big man are thinking that Kleber is going back to full-time 4, or that Wood will spend a lot of time at 4. I don't agree with that, but it's the only thing that could possibly motivate such a wish, imo. I guess we'll have to see what happens.

(06-16-2022, 07:42 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I don´t think you would disagree but that obviously doesn´t mean that they shouldn´t try everything to add another piece. Have 10 rotations worthy players. Great. Add more talent. That´s what great teams do. That´s how you end up with rosters like GS. They didn´t think we have Iggy, Klay, Wiggins and Kuminga. We don´t need more wing talent. They added OPJ on top of it.
It´s a luxury. And in the Mavs case a pricy luxury for Cuban. But it makes a difference. Especially in the regular season. One of them goes down with an injury and the team isn´t missing a beat. Next man up is a player that could start on another team.

I agree - mostly. 

I think in the cases of Powell (character), Green and Ntilikina (young, still working to find a foothold in the league) the team is very likely to get the benefits of those players' talent without the headaches that come with players who perceive that they aren't being given the chances/roles they deserve. They aren't the only players who would work out that way, and I'm definitely ok with the idea of improving upon them, especially with even more intriguing young players, but I do think there's a downside to messing with the roles mix. I really do.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not married to this roster yet, and that includes the top 8, even.

(06-16-2022, 07:22 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]RE: Playoff Rotation Wing

To me this means a guy who is top 8 on the depth chart so that DP/FN/JG don't have to be counted on for the playoffs next season.

Luka
JB
SD
RB
DFS
MK
CW

I am struggling to think of a guy who can be signed as a FA this year that would confidently make the top 8.

So, let’s use this model and assume Wood gets 28 minutes instead of the 23 minutes Powell and Bertans split in the playoffs.  Maxi averaged 25 and combined that is 53, so there are now five minutes where we can reduce the load on other players.  I’m not saying Powell or Bertans are gone.  They will serve useful purposes during the regular season.  I’m just trying to apply a strict interpretation of a playoff rotation and see where we are lacking.  You also have to think about backups in case of injury and foul trouble in the playoffs.

So, we have a CW/MK center rotation and five minutes of Maxi time to use elsewhere.  That is five minutes where DFS can rest bringing his number down from 38 to 33…much more reasonable.  But, we’ve only covered 38 of 48 minutes at the four.  So, there is a 10 minute opening.

The PG’s got 37, 35 and 28 for a total of 100 minutes (96 minutes of two guard and four minutes of three PG lineups).  Let’s trim that back to 96 minutes.  So, we’ve created four minutes.  Bullock averaged 39, let’s bring that back to 32.  We also eliminate the Green/Frank minutes.  Essentially there is about a 14 minute opportunity at the three.

They’ve said this “wing defender” is a priority, so we can’t presume they are counting on Green or Frank doing this job.  Which is fine.  They are still young and don’t have to necessarily do anything just yet (they do need to be ready as players contracts expire).  But, we have about 24 minutes available and someone needs to get about half of that time at the four and half at the three.  Here is how I see it playing out (again in a tight playoff rotation):

CW 28.  MK 23.               

DFS 33. MK 5  New 10.   

Bullock 32. New 14.         

Brunson 34  SD 14.          

Luka. 34. SD 14.              


So, this could just be a 24 minute veteran backup.  But, you could also trim Maxi some more and move more of DFS’s minutes to the three and make this a starting four.  It probably isn’t a starting three.  One issue that Woods causes defensively is you probably have to keep him separated in lineups from THJ.  In fact THJ, who can’t play the four, would be the logical outgoing in an O for D swap for a bigger body who stands a chance against the Kawhi’s of the world.  That guy, whether he starts or relieves DFS when he sits or has foul trouble is the missing piece.

(06-16-2022, 07:58 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I agree - mostly. 

I think in the cases of Powell (character), Green and Ntilikina (young, still working to find a foothold in the league) the team is very likely to get the benefits of those players' talent without the headaches that come with players who perceive that they aren't being given the chances/roles they deserve. They aren't the only players who would work out that way, and I'm definitely ok with the idea of improving upon them, especially with even more intriguing young players, but I do think there's a downside to messing with the roles mix. I really do.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not married to this roster yet, and that includes the top 8, even.

Winning heals all seems to be the fitting phrase. I think as long as the team looks like a legit contender most players (especially ring chasers) are willing to except a lesser role.

(06-16-2022, 08:04 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Winning heals all seems to be the fitting phrase. I think as long as the team looks like a legit contender most players (especially ring chasers) are willing to except a lesser role.

Totally.

But, which is the chicken, and which is the egg? I'm not so sure we don't get it backwards sometimes, watching from the outside of these teams. 

I think your way of looking at it gets more valid as guys like Doncic, Brunson and DFS get older and more established in the league. As of this point in time, I'd suggest that the team is developing a bit faster than we might have expected, given the roster, and that the chemistry of the roster is likely a big part of that. I'm not suggesting that they should use this as an excuse not to try to improve, but there are levels to it, as you know.

(06-16-2022, 02:43 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Seems like overkill to me. You'd be straight ADDING a ton of money (none outgoing) for a guy who's going to get maybe 10-12 minutes per game if all goes according to plan. Probably fewer minutes than that, actually.

On the other hand, I suppose it insulates you a bit in case Wood's work ethic/personality is so problematic that he goes full Rondo/Odom or something crazy like that. 

But, I see zero potential for those two to play together, if that's what you're thinking. Both of them are 5's and ONLY 5's. I think you can play Wood at the 4, but not if you expect to be competitive during that time.

My thinking is that having Holmes for 20 mpg would lessen the stress on needing another wing, due to Maxi, Green, and THJ being available and hopefully developing enough to be usable in the playoffs...

IF when the time comes we find a wing available for trade making between $10-15 mil then you can either trade Powell or pay OKC to take him.

IMO an option to keep in mind is the wing OKC just got for a future pick from Denver: J. Green. 

IMO this would be better than trying to bid on a FA with the TPMLE. It would also allow Dallas to split the MLE to bid on FAs who are only being offered Minimums. 

Now the drawback is using the TE is going to cost > 15 million in Tax and salary. But if you don't then continuing momentum is much more difficult even with the Wood trade.

(06-16-2022, 08:10 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]My thinking is that having Holmes for 20 mpg would lessen the stress on needing another wing.

IF when the time comes we find a wing available for trade making between $10-15 mil then you can either trade Powell or pay OKC to take him.

IMO an option to keep in mind is the wing OKC just got for a future pick from Denver: J. Green.

IMO this would be better than trying to bid on a FA with the TPMLE. It would also allow Dallas to split the MLE to bid on FAs who are only being offered Minimums. 

Now the drawback is using the TE is going to cost > 15 million in Tax and salary. But if you don't then continuing momentum is much more difficult even with the Wood trade.

I don’t think they should send out a conditional pick when they still owe their 2023 to NY. Rather they keep all future draft picks available in the case a star becomes available next off season.

(06-16-2022, 08:10 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]IMO an option to keep in mind is the wing OKC just got for a future pick from Denver: J. Green.

For the record, I'd be WAY more into this than Holmes. I think this tracks with how they want to play, though it's just my hunch for now. 

And I get what you're saying - if Holmes comes here for 20 minutes per, then Kleber IS that wing we think they need. Mission accomplished, only in a different way. The problem (in my opinion - I respect yours) is that I think the center position is significantly worse (again, in this play style) with Holmes than it is with Kleber. So, while adding a forward or adding another 5 and repurposing Kleber might both be valid ways of improving in a general sense, I just personally believe one way is superior to the other.

(06-16-2022, 08:10 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]Now the drawback is using the TE is going to cost > 15 million in Tax and salary. But if you don't then continuing momentum is much more difficult even with the Wood trade.

Thats the conundrum. The "value" of the next player acquired will have to be much better to meet the value + tax in salary. 

Still, you can't let money stop you at this point. The goal is a championship. The luxury tax cannot be the obstacle that prevents it.

(06-16-2022, 07:59 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]In fact THJ, who can’t play the four, would be the logical outgoing in an O for D swap for a bigger body who stands a chance against the Kawhi’s of the world.  That guy, whether he starts or relieves DFS when he sits or has foul trouble is the missing piece.

Bingo. 

That was my implicit/hidden point in my post. There is no obvious FA target that can fill the stated need AND with the Mavs being money strapped I imagine a THJ trade is coming (if possible) in our future to attain this said desired player.

The biggest fear I have is wearing down Kleber AND Bullock (game 3 I think) in the playoffs. I hope that THJ is what prevents that on 2 levels: No way all 3 shoot 0-14 in a game AND Kleber can play some swing minutes IF we have better options than Powell behind Wood.

2nd thing I want to prevent is playing against an Embiid type who takes Wood to the blocks and Sheds him. Holmes is no All-NBA defender but he is more formidable of a presence than Powell or Wood.

(06-16-2022, 08:24 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Bingo. 

That was my implicit/hidden point in my post. There is no obvious FA target that can fill the stated need AND with the Mavs being money strapped I imagine a THJ trade is coming (if possible) in our future to attain this said desired player.

Lol, I said the same thing much earlier, and for ONCE, more succinctly than @"DanSchwartzgan", but he gets a "BINGO?"

My man getting star calls like Trae Young and I'm over here like Luka getting hammered with no whistle!

(06-16-2022, 08:24 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Bingo. 

That was my implicit/hidden point in my post. There is no obvious FA target that can fill the stated need AND with the Mavs being money strapped I imagine a THJ trade is coming (if possible) in our future to attain this said desired player.

Depends on the framing of "obvious FA target". There are a number of guys that could fit into that role. As always bigger 3&D wings are a hot commodity on the free agent market and the Mavs only have the tax-player MLE but it´s not impossible to find a fitting piece.

Just off the top of my head Kyle Anderson, TJ Warren and OPJ as the biggest UFAs.

(06-16-2022, 08:25 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]2nd thing I want to prevent is playing against an Embiid type who takes Wood to the blocks and Sheds him. Holmes is no All-NBA defender but he is more formidable of a presence than Powell or Wood.

No argument there. 

And, I could be way wrong, but I suspect if they're playing against Jokic/Embiid, Kleber will be the guy, whether the 3rd guy is Powell or Holmes. 

...and that's because of the offensive end of the floor.

---

(06-16-2022, 08:33 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Just off the top of my head Kyle Anderson, TJ Warren and OPJ as the biggest UFAs.

OPJ would be perfect. Any chance they can get him? I kind of doubt it. I just don't think Luka is there yet in terms of drawing the ring chasers, especially away from teams who might have just won a ring. 

But hell yes, I'd be into targeting him.