MavsBoard

(12-22-2021, 01:28 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Fight me then.  JB has a knack for scoring.  He is super crafty and I find myself thinking of him as a discount version of CP3.  But we also saw some of the bad from JB last night:  questionable shot selection, terrible lob passes to Chriss, terrible cross court passes when facing a double team especially when the easy pass would have led to a wide open three, trying to do too much on the offensive end.  

I'd love to have JB back but I have not idea what to pay him.  If he gets a contract nearing THJ, I think we'll regret that down the line.  It's kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.  He'll be impossible to replace but keeping him long term with THJ/KP is a problem for this team's ceiling.  

All that said, I do think the Mavs will retain him.

Lol of course I am kidding. 

I just cringe at the thought of him going elsewhere man the the dude is good. 

Brunson is more deserving for the label of 2nd best player on the team than KP.

(12-22-2021, 08:16 PM)Omega_Supreme Wrote: [ -> ]Brunson is more deserving for the label of 2nd best player on the team than KP.

Agreed but where do you put Luka on the list?

1. God King
2. Brunson
3-15:  ???

(12-22-2021, 08:36 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Agreed but where do you put Luka on the list?

1. God King
2. Brunson
3-15:  ???

1. Luka
2. Brunson
3. DFS
4. KP
5. Maxi 

BTW I am biased, left the KP bandwagon after the bubble. You cannot win with that guy not playing like an actual big. I hope that Mavs see what I see and move and all the other pieces after that. 

Essentially all of the Ex-Knicks guys need to go minus Frank N. I like Burke and what he brings defensively against quicker guards but outside him the rest can go.

(12-22-2021, 01:35 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I'm with you there too.

JB, like THJ, can't start with Luka.  It's just too much of a defensive liability against the best teams in the league.  Compared to THJ, I am way more comfortable giving JB the rock as the 6th man and telling him to go get buckets.

The "easy" solution is to trade THJ and resign JB.  This would be the ideal scenario as long as JB doesn't want to start.

Brunson plays defense tho. Feels like its a myth that he can't hold his own on defense. If Luka plays defense like Brunson does, The Mavs are straight up a top 5/10 defensive team, and not hovering around 20th. His size should actually help him to play better defense than Brunson. All defensive problems would be legit gone. The defensive problems are clearly Luka in combination with THJ. Not surprised the starters with Bullock (despite him not hitting shots) were straight up better than the THJ lineups.

.R. Bullock, .D. Powell, .K. Porzingis, .D. Finney-Smith, .L. Doncic  +30.4 in 42 min
.T. Hardaway Jr., .D. Powell, .K. Porzingis, .D. Finney-Smith, .L. Doncic  -17.1 in 103 min

This is a 45 pts difference, like what the freaking hell. And Bullock cant even hit a shot.


Are people sure they beat the Wolves with THJ playing, and Frank being out? Because i am not sure. D-Lo probably goes off, and the game is over.
I am comfortable "losing" THJ (to free up space for Brunson/DFS), and giving 50 % of his minutes to Frank and another 50 % to Josh Green. Would totally call teams that were interested in THJ, like the Pelicans. Maybe you can get a deal done THJ/Powell for Valanciunas/Satoransky. Might not be the best fit with KP, but you have another much needed big body.

Not sure if Val 3 pt shooting is a fluke so far. But he is shooting over 40 %. If he can knock down open shots, he might be able to play the Powell role way better.


I think Luka/Brunson can work, if you add another defender like Josh Green/Frank. Brunson / Luka / Frank / DFS / KP

Mavs have straight playing around a top 5 defense since Luka went down. How is that even possible if Brunson is a liability on defense. If Luka doesn't improve his defense going forward, not even 4 Ben Simmons going to save him. I think the Mavs have enough defense on the roster now. If Kidd would actually play Josh Green more, Frank more. The moment Luka/THJ is back, the problem starting again. Less minutes for Frank, less minutes for Josh Green.

Thunder last 5 games:

- Mavs: 84
- Pelicans: 110
- Clippers: 103
- Grizzlies: 102
- Nuggets: 108

(12-23-2021, 02:20 AM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]The defensive problems are clearly Luka in combination with THJ

Yep you identified this problem a while ago, keep speaking the truth! The lone voice in the wilderness is a hard job.

DAL is a top 5 D in the 948 mins without the Luka+THJ pairing.

(12-23-2021, 09:04 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Yep you identified this problem a while ago, keep speaking the truth! The lone voice in the wilderness is a hard job.

DAL is a top 5 D in the 948 mins without the Luka+THJ pairing.

And yet in much bigger samples

2020:  Luka+THJ  Off 116  Def 112  Net +4  1231 minutes
2019:  Luka+THJ  Off 117  Def 108  Net +9  1207 minutes

What does this tell us?  That there is way too much noise in 2 man lineups to get much of anything, especially in a 3rd of a season.

I don't think anybody on here disputes that THJ and Luka are poor defenders, and a questionable fit as starters because of it (seems like there was thread going over this just yesterday).

The controversial comment Sefant made was suggesting that Brunson is a good defender and that if only Luka played defense like him we would be top 5-10.  Looking at raw two man data without a ton of context is not going to be very helpful in validating that claim.  If you want to look at on/off data to make some conclusions, there are some very good advanced stats (Lebron, EPM, Darko) that do a much better job of integrating all of the information.  They all come to the same conclusion.  All three guys are poor defenders.

When thinking about players I prefer to take them as they are, with their good and bad sides. We know Luka is good offensive player and average defender. So when building around him you need to bring guys that help where Luka is not excellent. Imho, solution is not "Luka should improve and become good defender", nor KP should improve and become excellent offensive player. Because if this would be the line of thinking, where do we draw the line? If we expect Luka should be an excellent defender, why don't we expect DFS and rest of squad to become excellent offensive guys? I am not trying to say guys should not improve, but I think team building is more realistic if you take them as they are.

If I move on to team building I try to determine the constants and then work on variables. I think it is clear that the first constant is Luka. He is here to stay. Team should be built around him. I think Mavs have another constant in KP. I don't believe they can trade him without becoming probably worse. So lets assume he is here to stay and you have to count him in the equation.

With that in mind it is obvious we already have two players that are not a good fit defensively, as I think Iztok Franko showed perfectly in the piece below. 

The long term fit of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis has nothing to do with offense - Mavs Moneyball

When you add another average defender to the mix, it is only natural that defense becomes bad. This has nothing to do with Luka being fit or not and is not a thing of this season. We have more than two seasons of data that proves that. Mavs had to know before the season that their highest paid pieces are not capable of playing good defense together. 

So when we come to Brunson, the big question is if he can provide better result than THJ. A question that becomes even more complicated as playoffs will be a much different story than regular season and it is to expected that a player like Brunson will become one of primary targets, especially if the main opponent guys are big wings. Showed by Clippers last season where they attacked Brunson with Kawhi or George on basically every offense. 

Unfortunately we don't have a lot of data to lean on even for regular season (2021-22):
- 30 minutes of Luka-Brunson-KP and THJ with DFS that were bad defensively, 
- 15 minutes of same four but Bullock instead of DFS that was great defensively
- 15 minutes of Luka-Brunson-KP-DFS-Bullock that is also below average defensively (113 per 100)

2020/21 doesn't provide much more data. Based on this I am far from certain that Brunson can be that piece next to Luka and KP, playing heavy minutes.

(12-23-2021, 10:55 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]When thinking about players I prefer to take them as they are, with their good and bad sides. We know Luka is good offensive player and average defender. So when building around him you need to bring guys that help where Luka is not excellent. Imho, solution is not "Luka should improve and become good defender", nor KP should improve and become excellent offensive player. Because if this would be the line of thinking, where do we draw the line? If we expect Luka should be an excellent defender, why don't we expect DFS and rest of squad to become excellent offensive guys? I am not trying to say guys should not improve, but I think team building is more realistic if you take them as they are.

If I move on to team building I try to determine the constants and then work on variables. I think it is clear that the first constant is Luka. He is here to stay. Team should be built around him. I think Mavs have another constant in KP. I don't believe they can trade him without becoming probably worse. So lets assume he is here to stay and you have to count him in the equation.

With that in mind it is obvious we already have two players that are not a good fit defensively, as I think Iztok Franko showed perfectly in the piece below. 

The long term fit of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis has nothing to do with offense - Mavs Moneyball

When you add another average defender to the mix, it is only natural that defense becomes bad. This has nothing to do with Luka being fit or not and is not a thing of this season. We have more than two seasons of data that proves that. Mavs had to know before the season that their highest paid pieces are not capable of playing good defense together. 

So when we come to Brunson, the big question is if he can provide better result than THJ. A question that becomes even more complicated as playoffs will be a much different story than regular season and it is to expected that a player like Brunson will become one of primary targets, especially if the main opponent guys are big wings. Showed by Clippers last season where they attacked Brunson with Kawhi or George on basically every offense. 

Unfortunately we don't have a lot of data to lean on even for regular season (2021-22):
- 30 minutes of Luka-Brunson-KP and THJ with DFS that were bad defensively, 
- 15 minutes of same four but Bullock instead of DFS that was great defensively
- 15 minutes of Luka-Brunson-KP-DFS-Bullock that is also below average defensively (113 per 100)

2020/21 doesn't provide much more data. Based on this I am far from certain that Brunson can be that piece next to Luka and KP, playing heavy minutes.

I agree with a lot of this, but do have a few comments:

I would classify Luka as a great offensive player and poor defender.  I agree that players are what they are, but defense can be impacted a lot by level of effort, and does seem like Luka is lacking in this area.  I think it would help a lot to get him some creation help on the offensive side of the ball so he has more energy.  It would also help if he spent less time and effort whining to the officials.

That Iztok piece was really well done (all of his are) but it was very specific to KPs play last year.  He was really bad on defense last year.  Don't know if its struggles with injury recovery or issues with his offensive role, but he seems to have reverted to his old self this season.  I'm not saying he is elite, and the Luka/KP combo definitely needs to be supported with better defensive players, but I don't think its as hopeless as it seemed last year.

Totally agree on Brunson.  I question his fit, and also his desire to stay here.  When you add in the tax implications of signing him to a big deal, there are just too many reasons to trade him at the deadline if you can.

(12-23-2021, 11:37 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I would classify Luka as a great offensive player and poor defender.  I agree that players are what they are, but defense can be impacted a lot by level of effort, and does seem like Luka is lacking in this area.  I think it would help a lot to get him some creation help on the offensive side of the ball so he has more energy.  It would also help if he spent less time and effort whining to the officials.

Agree. I would also add motivation. Luka is a guy that thrives on competition. The biggest the challenge, more is he motivated. Regular season games against average or bad teams are not something that motivates him a lot. The problem Mavs have - they are bad if Luka doesn't play like huge star. They even have problems against average/bad teams. But I also think this is not sustainable. You can't have your main guy in top form through whole regular season and playoffs. Look at Nets. Durant is playing at MVP level and their result is good, but they are affraid they will run him to the ground before playoff start.

Let´s put together some sneaky trade ideas for our rookie GM, since we all have years of experience as armchair GMs.

My sneaky target is the 5th leading scorer of the 2021 Olympics. He was the #1 option for Team Nigeria, averaged 20 PPG on 50/50/50 shooting.

He will be a RFA next summer. His team already has a $150M pay-roll and Donte DiVincenzo as another RFA.

Whenever he gets on the floor now he produces, which is tough on the Bucks.

In pre-season he averaged 18 PPG in 24 minutes.

With the recent COVID cases, he once again got extended minutes in the last four games. Again he´s averaging 18 PPG, 10 RPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 45% from three.

It seems he is ready to blow up on a team that can give him minutes.

The name is Jordan Nwora, your classic new NBA player prototype, a 6´8 forward. Just 23 year old.

I´d approach the Bucks with a cost effective trade offer, that might involve a Bullock in a three way.

(12-23-2021, 02:20 AM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]Brunson plays defense tho. 

While I appreciate the analysis, if you re-read my statement, I said against better teams...the ones you face in the playoffs.  Yes, Luka is a problem defensively in any lineup but combining him Brunson will limit your success as a good backcourt will exploit Jalen's size and lack of athleticism as well as Luka's usual subpar play.

(12-23-2021, 11:59 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]I´d approach the Bucks with a cost effective trade offer, that might involve a Bullock in a three way.

I think Bucks would only be interested in an offer that would get them cost controlled productive player. They are already very deep in tax, so I don't think adding salary this season is really an attractive option for them. Not really sure what/who would convince them to be a better option than Nwora. Would they take draft consideration?

I think a better alternative, if you really like him, is to wait till offseason and throw rMLE at him. With Milwaukee deep in tax I doubt they match.

---

(12-23-2021, 12:06 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]as well as Luka's usual subpar play.

Since you mentioned it. Defense with Luka was better than without him in both playoff series Mavs played.

(12-23-2021, 12:06 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]as well as Luka's usual subpar play.

(12-23-2021, 12:09 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Since you mentioned it. Defense with Luka was better than without him in both playoff series Mavs played.

Nicely done, cow, nicely done. Instant bite.

Not the toughest to induce, but still brought a smile.

(12-23-2021, 12:09 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Since you mentioned it. Defense with Luka was better than without him in both playoff series Mavs played.

Luka can play average defense when he tries.  About that...

(12-23-2021, 10:38 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]And yet in much bigger samples

2020:  Luka+THJ  Off 116  Def 112  Net +4  1231 minutes
2019:  Luka+THJ  Off 117  Def 108  Net +9  1207 minutes

What does this tell us?  That there is way too much noise in 2 man lineups to get much of anything, especially in a 3rd of a season.

I don't think anybody on here disputes that THJ and Luka are poor defenders, and a questionable fit as starters because of it (seems like there was thread going over this just yesterday).

The controversial comment Sefant made was suggesting that Brunson is a good defender and that if only Luka played defense like him we would be top 5-10.  Looking at raw two man data without a ton of context is not going to be very helpful in validating that claim.  If you want to look at on/off data to make some conclusions, there are some very good advanced stats (Lebron, EPM, Darko) that do a much better job of integrating all of the information.  They all come to the same conclusion.  All three guys are poor defenders.

But those samples have nothing to do with the current defensive schemes or the current health/conditioning of Luka. 

JB is a much better defender than Luka in Kidd's scheme. Luka has been terrible in it as has THJ, but especially together. THJ and Luka can both play one on one D, but they are terrible at rotations and help D. Kidd's scheme asks for more of that than RC's (and I think RC purposefully kept the D scheme less aggressive for THIS very reason). 

JB doesn't have the physical tools but his BBDIQ (within a scheme) is much better than both Luka and THJ.

(12-23-2021, 01:19 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]JB is a much better defender than Luka in Kidd's scheme. Luka has been terrible in it as has THJ, but especially together. THJ and Luka can both play one on one D, but they are terrible at rotations and help D. Kidd's scheme asks for more of that than RC's (and I think RC purposefully kept the D scheme less aggressive for THIS very reason). 

JB doesn't have the physical tools but his BBDIQ (within a scheme) is much better than both Luka and THJ.

I think this is all pretty accurate and matches the eye test. I definitely think Kidd's scheme requires a higher level of mental focus on predicting where the ball is going and realizing how the rotations will need to work really quickly. 

This part isn't meant as a direct rebuttal of @"Kammrath" or any other specific person, but I just want to chime in with a reminder that ALL THREE players in question are still LEARNING. That's the part that I feel gets lost around here most often. None of this is set in stone, and these guys are human beings working on their craft. Sometimes, I think we're all too quick to assume these players "are what they are." A good coaching staff should believe that they can improve the effectiveness of hard-working players within their system over time, imo.

(12-23-2021, 12:44 PM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/dalton_trigg/status/...79208?s=21

Get him here, and start building a proper roster around Luka. Apart from Jokic, he is among the most friendly Luka players in the league. Keep Brunson as the third star. Keep Maxi to play the defensive minded big next to Sabonis.

(12-23-2021, 01:19 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]But those samples have nothing to do with the current defensive schemes or the current health/conditioning of Luka. 

JB is a much better defender than Luka in Kidd's scheme. Luka has been terrible in it as has THJ, but especially together. THJ and Luka can both play one on one D, but they are terrible at rotations and help D. Kidd's scheme asks for more of that than RC's (and I think RC purposefully kept the D scheme less aggressive for THIS very reason). 

JB doesn't have the physical tools but his BBDIQ (within a scheme) is much better than both Luka and THJ.

First of all, you are moving the goalposts.  The original point that you are supporting with your data was not about how these guys fit specifically in Kidd vs Rick defense.  It was about how Luka and THJ are objectively bad at defense and Brunson is good.

Second, what you are saying may be true and fit the eye test, I just don't think your small sample 2 man lineup data is particularly strong evidence.  There is way too much noise.

Third, the best advanced metrics available to us don't really agree with your premise.  They have Brunson being just as bad as previous years (actually a little worse).  I'm not suggesting that refutes your premise.  Even though I think its much better than simple 2 man on/off numbers, defense is very tricky to capture and needs a really big sample.  I feel much more confident in saying that Luka, THJ and Brunson are not good defenders in general, and I am skeptical that scheme is going to make any of them even average.

The Mavs are lumped in with 20 something teams who have to have a bidding war over the leftover average players because the other teams got the FA Stars...we need more positive assets and not waste any draft picks that we are close to being able to use them again and they have more value to get that 3rd great player we desperately need...