(05-31-2022, 07:40 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Does anyone think there is a chance we see a Waive and Stretch this off-season. I'm thinking specifically of Bertans. ).
1 Just a math comment, in case it matters
..........My math is different on the pure waive/stretch move (I think the difference in pure tax is about 38.5M, assuming Brunson signs at 20M and going from 175M down to 164.5M payroll, which reduces tax from 68M to about 30.5M).
2 Just an overview comment, that can be fleshed out later if needed
.......... The totality of the financial analysis is more than just the tax difference with a DB s-w. It opens a roster slot (which will then add a salary, which could be of varying sizes, and then that amount will be added salary AND tax). There's also the role that DB plays, and how much that's worth for each of the next 3 years (it's not 16M this season, but it's not 0 either, and getting him off the books for this year means he's not available for any of the 3 years PLUS you are going to be spending assets and payroll to refill that role). Talent is not that important, until you don't have it and try to get some more, and then it's a killer. Also, a s-w here might entice Mavs to use TPE and/or MLE which they otherwise might not --- it
shouldn't be an either-or, but perhaps it would be -- but then when you do, those savings and the analysis looks very different in some ways.
............ MY POINT HERE BEING -- YOU AREN'T GOING TO BE SAVING 38m WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE IT AT FIRST.
3 To me, there is one meaningful question here. Your question is certainly fair, but it is an analysis of the possibility, rather than of what is REALLY on the table.
THE Question - is MC a cheap owner who values his money over winning??? We don't know yet if MC will cheap out. He very well might, and we will find out. But if he does, let's call it what it is -- he's prioritizing his dollars over winning.
(05-31-2022, 10:04 PM)Jakeospikez Wrote: [ -> ]At least it's an option.
Yeah, 7 years is definitely not ideal. I’m not hopeful we could get someone to take Powell and some of what is rumored out there requires us to get under the tax far enough to be able to do some things.
Another version of this might be to trade THJ and Brown ($22.6mm) for S&T Bamba. Orlando has cap room and that swap saves something similar to the Bertans S/W if you pay Bamba $12mm.
Now you still have to deal with signing Brunson and staying under the Apron. So, maybe it is Powell who gets Stretched and saves $7.4mm. Not quite enough if Brunson starts at $20mm, so maybe Chriss gets added to the Orlando deal. You have 3 years or $3.4mm instead of 7 years of $5.4mm. Obviously better to trade Powell for air. I’m just not positive that will be easy to do.
People have been talking about PWilliams and PJWash. What about Rui? He could be a fallen angel reclamation type project that we might be able to buy low on.
Only thing I could see they might want is the TPE and our first for him. To me, he’s a decent option to come away with if there is no way of getting the higher end guys. Kinda like the Harris deal.
(05-31-2022, 11:43 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]People have been talking about PWilliams and PJWash. What about Rui? He could be a fallen angel reclamation type project that we might be able to buy low on.
Only thing I could see they might want is the TPE and our first for him. To me, he’s a decent option to come away with if there is no way of getting the higher end guys. Kinda like the Harris deal.
I don't keep up with the Wizards. Did Rui have a bad season? The organization is certainly a reliable trade partner of ours.
Regarding Bamba,
I don't see how/why anyone would be interested in him. Ignoring the barriers of actually obtaining him this summer, the dude just isn't that good.
He's a legit statue on offense. He doesn't move at all and instead camps around the 3pt line where he spots up at a 50% frequency. He's a 7ft behemoth that can't actually use his size due to his skinny frame. And unlike the unicorn we just shipped out, Bamba doesn't have nearly the same fluidity Porzingis has. Bamba ranked this year in the 23rd percentile as the roll man in the PnR.
Second, he's one of the worst pick and roll defenders in the league. He ranked in the 218th in defensive win shares. And while this is a flawed stat and only tells part of the picture, his fellow teammate WCJr ranked 84th in the league. So it wasn't just because he was on a bad team.
Bamba is bad. He doesn't deserve a roster spot on a team with championship aspirations. He's 2 years away from being 2 years away. Don't let the counting stats fool you.
Just figure out a way to sign Looney. He's always moved well a big, would vastly improve our rebounding and our series against him showed what he is capable of on the offensive end.
(05-31-2022, 11:49 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I don't keep up with the Wizards. Did Rui have a bad season? The organization is certainly a reliable trade partner of ours.
He’s had a good amount of injuries that have kept him out. This year Kuzma supplanted him in the starting lineup and it looks like he’s there to stay most likely.
(05-31-2022, 07:40 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Does anyone think there is a chance we see a Waive and Stretch this off-season. I'm thinking specifically of Bertans. Normally I'd scoff at the idea, but LT math may make this worth at least considering. The way I understand the rule is we'd take his remaining guaranteed salary ($38mm) and divide it over 2x remaining seasons plus one. So, we'd be eating $5.43mm per year for the next seven years. At first blush, eating $38mm for a player capable of making a marginal contribution is just silly. Dallas will have that albatross on it's cap sheet for the rest of Luka's 20's.
This was a very entertaining post. Thanks for making it and starting the conversation.
As to your initial question- Is there a chance we see a S/W specifically on Bertans- I don't think so. Mainly because while it could save some money, it doesn't really allow the team to make a noticeable move that makes them better, all the while costing them 5.5 mil for 7 years. Further, like FGump said, even if we're saving 10 mil this season (and 30 some odd mil in tax savings), Bertans roster spot has to be replaced by someone and that will cost them money anyhow and further lower whatever savings Cuban is searching for.
Just doesn't make sense to me especially because a team trying to contend doesn't just make role players go away and pay them to stay home unless they are so royally bad bringing them around the team is a detriment to success. I don't think Bertans is at that level, and while overpaid he does bring some valuable shooting.
It all boils down to whether or not Cuban actually values winning or his pocketbook. He's said over and over he's willing to pay for a good team. Well, the team just made the WCF. Time for Cuban to put his money where his mouth is.
(06-01-2022, 12:29 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]This was a very entertaining post. Thanks for making it and starting the conversation.
As to your initial question- Is there a chance we see a S/W specifically on Bertans- I don't think so. Mainly because while it could save some money, it doesn't really allow the team to make a noticeable move that makes them better, all the while costing them 5.5 mil for 7 years. Further, like FGump said, even if we're saving 10 mil this season (and 30 some odd mil in tax savings), Bertans roster spot has to be replaced by someone and that will cost them money anyhow and further lower whatever savings Cuban is searching for.
Just doesn't make sense to me especially because a team trying to contend doesn't just make role players go away and pay them to stay home unless they are so royally bad bringing them around the team is a detriment to success. I don't think Bertans is at that level, and while overpaid he does bring some valuable shooting.
It all boils down to whether or not Cuban actually values winning or his pocketbook. He's said over and over he's willing to pay for a good team. Well, the team just made the WCF. Time for Cuban to put his money where his mouth is.
It's the same reason why you don't trade Powell. No depth at the possession and you've hung onto him this long, you might as well ride out the last year and see if his contract becomes valuable at the TDL rather than paying to get off his contract in the offseason.
As far as a winning team is concerned, we might take a step back next year (mostly just projecting the West) but after the '23 draft, we'll be free of a lot of dead weight contracts on the team and have our full compliment of draft picks again.
(06-01-2022, 12:37 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]It's the same reason why you don't trade Powell. No depth at the possession and you've hung onto him this long, you might as well ride out the last year and see if his contract becomes valuable at the TDL rather than paying to get off his contract in the offseason.
I like your analysis, but don't agree with the conclusion that "you don't trade Powell" or at least how broad it is.
I do agree they should not trade Powell just to trade him, in some sort of "at all costs" extermination, where they are paying someone to take him. But they should be open to, and perhaps even looking for, his summer path out of town where ...
1 They have a replacement for his minutes, either beforehand, or via the trade in which he leaves, and
2 He brings back no worse than neutral value (ie, he is cheap filler, since he is expiring) or better (ie, a team sees some value in having his energy and hustle on their team and in their lineup (some teams need that, who are looking for a spark to help them ascend and maybe learn some better habits).
If his contract simply expires next summer, it saves the team money, but it doesn't provide anything in terms of talent to move forward. If they have cap room in 2023, being expanded from his contract expiring, it is a huge fail in the interim in roster building.
(06-01-2022, 12:05 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]He’s had a good amount of injuries that have kept him out. This year Kuzma supplanted him in the starting lineup and it looks like he’s there to stay most likely.
Washington has a logjam at PF with a bunch of similar young talent. Besides Kuzma they have Avdija, Kispert and Todd. Just not enough minutes for everyone. I like Rui and if he was available for our pick, I would pull the trigger immediately. I think he has more value though. Washingtons biggest need is a PG - something we can't really offer. They could also use some shooting.
THJ+pick for KCP and Rui would be a huge win for us, imho.
(06-01-2022, 01:37 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I like your analysis, but don't agree with the conclusion that "you don't trade Powell" or at least how broad it is.
I do agree they should not trade Powell just to trade him, in some sort of "at all costs" extermination, where they are paying someone to take him. But they should be open to, and perhaps even looking for, his summer path out of town where ...
1 They have a replacement for his minutes, either beforehand, or via the trade in which he leaves, and
2 He brings back no worse than neutral value (ie, he is cheap filler, since he is expiring) or better (ie, a team sees some value in having his energy and hustle on their team and in their lineup (some teams need that, who are looking for a spark to help them ascend and maybe learn some better habits).
If his contract simply expires next summer, it saves the team money, but it doesn't provide anything in terms of talent to move forward. If they have cap room in 2023, being expanded from his contract expiring, it is a huge fail in the interim in roster building.
I just find it hard to believe someone is going to want him beyond being an expiring in a larger move. i guess it depends if you play his game tape from the end of the season or in the playoffs. A lot of what he brings to the team isn't all that quantifiable and I'm sure a lot of teams have their Nick Collins types on the roster already or can fill that role a lot less expensive (hello, Theo). A lot of people here want to trade him to trade Powell just to get rid of him. I wouldn't pay to get off of his expiring and I think what we all need to be prepared for is Powell here in the long term under a much more friendly cap number. I think that's the worst case scenario.
(05-31-2022, 11:57 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Regarding Bamba,
I don't see how/why anyone would be interested in him. Ignoring the barriers of actually obtaining him this summer, the dude just isn't that good.
He's a legit statue on offense. He doesn't move at all and instead camps around the 3pt line where he spots up at a 50% frequency. He's a 7ft behemoth that can't actually use his size due to his skinny frame. And unlike the unicorn we just shipped out, Bamba doesn't have nearly the same fluidity Porzingis has. Bamba ranked this year in the 23rd percentile as the roll man in the PnR.
Second, he's one of the worst pick and roll defenders in the league. He ranked in the 218th in defensive win shares. And while this is a flawed stat and only tells part of the picture, his fellow teammate WCJr ranked 84th in the league. So it wasn't just because he was on a bad team.
Bamba is bad. He doesn't deserve a roster spot on a team with championship aspirations. He's 2 years away from being 2 years away. Don't let the counting stats fool you.
I picked Bamba not because I'm in love with him, but because of a perception on my part that Orlando might value a Maverick player like THJ or Powell more than most teams because of the relationship with Mosley (and the fact they have cap room). With that said, Bamba was in the 90th percentile for D-Rebounding and 97th percentile for block percent last season. He was in the 78th percentile in D-EPM. When Bamba was in the game, Orlando's D improved (slightly to 113.9 PP48 vs. 114.2 when he was out). Powell lost us 5.6 PP48 defensively when he was in the game. Bamba doesn't have to score in the PnR. Maxi doesn't. But like Maxi, Bamba can hit 3's. If you don't like Bamba, insert Claxton or Robinson instead. These are players who won't be available for the TP-MLE. So, to add this level of talent we have to be able to trade for it (or more specifically, Sign and Trade for it).
So, the idea of a Bertans or Powell S/W isn't just about saving Cuban money. It is about solving the elusive S&T dilemma. We have to get below the tax line and do it in a way that keeps us under the Apron after taking Brunson into account. I don't ascribe to the idea that getting OKC to take Powell will be easy or cost free if it is doable at all. So, how do we get a "seat at the table" with the better free agents if we can't do a S&T? Maybe the Bertans stretch is too severe. Let's walk through the Powell alternative I mentioned where THJ was traded for Bamba (which will also answer the question FG deleted).
$155mm Hard Cap
-$20mm Reserve for Brunson
$135mm
$153.3mm Current Committments (so we are $18.3mm over)
-$7.4mm Savings from Powell S/W
-$11.6mm Trade spread in a THJ/Brown for Bamba deal with Bamba at $11mm
$134.3mm
So, we've made it. We can do a S&T to add talent. But to FG's other point, we now have two open roster spots having moved three players out and brought back one. Can we pay cash for someone to take Burke as their 3rd guard (certainly easier than getting someone to eat Powell). IF so, we have $4mm to work with to add back two guys leaving us at 14 plus two 2-ways which is fine. Pinson is one and someone who counts as a minimum for purposes of the hard cap could be the other. Did we lose talent? Not anyone who contributed to the playoff run. Does this help rebounding and rim protection? Yes. Is there a financial side benefit to Cuban as Dallas is hard capped at $6mm of tax? Yes. Was his being cheap the real purpose of such a deal? Maybe, but this level of tax seems much more realistic than using the TPE to go $35mm over the line. Look at it this way. Better to have Bamba and be $6mm over the line or Holmes and be $35mm over? The cost is losing THJ who is now off of your 2023 and beyond cap. That won't get you to cap space, but it gets you below the tax and fully able to use all of the tools (like the full MLE) going foward.
Bamba/Maxi Boban
DFS/Bertans Chriss
Reggie/Green Frank
Brunson/SD Pinson
Luka/SD Minimum
I think the Mavs would be willing to do salary tricks like that for a true 3rd star, but probably not Mo Bamba.
(06-01-2022, 01:46 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Washington has a logjam at PF with a bunch of similar young talent. Besides Kuzma they have Avdija, Kispert and Todd. Just not enough minutes for everyone. I like Rui and if he was available for our pick, I would pull the trigger immediately. I think he has more value though. Washingtons biggest need is a PG - something we can't really offer. They could also use some shooting.
THJ+pick for KCP and Rui would be a huge win for us, imho.
If Nico pulls this off I'll be the first one down on my knees
(05-31-2022, 11:57 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Regarding Bamba,
I don't see how/why anyone would be interested in him. Ignoring the barriers of actually obtaining him this summer, the dude just isn't that good.
He's a legit statue on offense. He doesn't move at all and instead camps around the 3pt line where he spots up at a 50% frequency. He's a 7ft behemoth that can't actually use his size due to his skinny frame. And unlike the unicorn we just shipped out, Bamba doesn't have nearly the same fluidity Porzingis has. Bamba ranked this year in the 23rd percentile as the roll man in the PnR.
Second, he's one of the worst pick and roll defenders in the league. He ranked in the 218th in defensive win shares. And while this is a flawed stat and only tells part of the picture, his fellow teammate WCJr ranked 84th in the league. So it wasn't just because he was on a bad team.
Bamba is bad. He doesn't deserve a roster spot on a team with championship aspirations. He's 2 years away from being 2 years away. Don't let the counting stats fool you.
I tend to agree with your take on Bamba. I did a highlight search on him recently. Knowing full well that highlight videos are not really ideal for what he needs to do to be a playoff type fitting part, but still. He has real nice feel on blocking shots and keeping them in play and has developed a nice three point shot, but he leaves you wanting so much more. On offense, he basically stands in the corner or pick and pops to the three point line. There isn't much more to his offensive game. This doesn't show in the highlights but while he blocks shots, I always thought in my limited watching of Orlando games that he is not very impactful on defense. Seems like someone who you can attack and not be afraid of attacking.
On the plus side, he is still 23/24 and maybe going to a team with defined roles you can ask him to focus on 2 things instead of getting up 5 threes a games. But I was left wanting more when watching his highlights.
(06-01-2022, 02:27 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I just find it hard to believe someone is going to want him beyond being an expiring in a larger move. i guess it depends if you play his game tape from the end of the season or in the playoffs. A lot of what he brings to the team isn't all that quantifiable and I'm sure a lot of teams have their Nick Collins types on the roster already or can fill that role a lot less expensive (hello, Theo). A lot of people here want to trade him to trade Powell just to get rid of him. I wouldn't pay to get off of his expiring and I think what we all need to be prepared for is Powell here in the long term under a much more friendly cap number. I think that's the worst case scenario.
I am prepared with the idea that Powell is going to hang around in some kind of role bc Mavs like him as a culture guy
(06-01-2022, 09:05 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I am prepared with the idea that Powell is going to hang around in some kind of role bc Mavs like him as a culture guy
I think the odds Powell is back next year over being moved. I think he is a good culture guy and a "innings eater" in the regular season. His playoff run was so disappointing though. It is tough to get past that.
If he is moved, he is not an asset to teams. He is just salary filler and expiring. I believe Maxi, Josh Green, pick #26, and future firsts are our assets. There is not a lot there, but for most of the names I am hearing you will probably need at least two of those to be moved...maybe more. Maybe I am wrong. But thinking Powell is going to be asset because he is expiring is a faulty thought process for me. Now maybe include him with the listed assets above could work. The Mavs offers can be beat in a lot of competitive players too. It would really help, if the player prefers Dallas though.
(06-01-2022, 09:05 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I am prepared with the idea that Powell is going to hang around in some kind of role bc Mavs like him as a culture guy
I think it was already mentioned that the Mavs want to keep Boban and Pinson as culture and locker room guys. Powell obviously has more on court value and this season showed how important chemistry is but with a limited number of roster spots the Mavs are running out of spots for another "great guy".
(06-01-2022, 12:02 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Just figure out a way to sign Looney. He's always moved well a big, would vastly improve our rebounding and our series against him showed what he is capable of on the offensive end.
GS has bird rights on Looney. I doubt we are going to be able to pry him away for the tax MLE. There are a couple guys that might not be able to be signed by their current team. The Clippers don't have any bird rights on Hartenstein and the Pacers only have early bird on Jalen Smith. Not sure if either of those teams can offer the tax MLE to those players?
(06-01-2022, 09:28 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I think it was already mentioned that the Mavs want to keep Boban and Pinson as culture and locker room guys. Powell obviously has more on court value and this season showed how important chemistry is but with a limited number of roster spots the Mavs are running out of spots for another "great guy".
Can Pinson be a two way next year? If they waive Brown and Burke, they would have room for the pick and a tax MLE guy?