One other thing, I can't believe you guys aren't as tired as I am at watching 1st quarter all star Zubacs around the league. This is what I'm wanting to prevent, because as the game goes on, those Zubacs are mitigated. What if we don't have to dig ourselves out of that hole?
(04-04-2022, 04:34 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]One other thing, I can't believe you guys aren't as tired as I am at watching 1st quarter all star Zubacs around the league. This is what I'm wanting to prevent, because as the game goes on, those Zubacs are mitigated. What if we don't have to dig ourselves out of that hole?
I've been banging the bargain basement center drum for a few years now. The issue is that you might get stuck with a year of someone who has fallen off a cliff (D12 this year) and that we actually need to convince that level of player to sign here. I'd take a year of McGee next year over trading away assets for a lot of the names being thrown around here.
(04-04-2022, 04:23 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]And we need to start thinking about them being 31 years old at that point (edit: 32 if we resign them).
I think Powell will get another contract here. I hope he takes a discount this time around. I'd be okay giving Maxi another contract in the neighborhood of what he is making now.
Nice conversation to come back to at the end of work. Lots of stuff I'd love to respond to but I'm late to the party but I'll say this:
While we definitely want to build to Kidd's defensive scheme (lots of switching and lateral quickness), we clearly need to add some size (and one that can play basketball as well as he makes goldfish commercials). We're going to have to sacrifice some of that mobility because we simply aren't going to get Bam or Mobley but that doesn't mean we have to sacrifice all of it. I'm thinking more Gobert and Mitchell Robinson vs Steven Adams or Jonas Valanciunas. Those guys can hold their own when called upon every once and while, the real trick is just making sure that if your center does get played off the floor because that's what good playoff teams do, do you have a roster to adjust? That's why I hope Powell stays here for life, being able to go to Powell in those situations would be huge, even if he isn't our most talented center or starting or what have you.
One name that I keep looking at that hasn't been mentioned (at least in today's conversation I think, apologies if I missed it) is Duke's Mark Williams who is slated to land in the late first round. I agree with others that think our pick is as good as gone just based on history and the fact that if you resign Brunson we already have a full 15 rostered but if there isn't a center upgrade to be had with Hardaway/Maxi + whatever little assets we have (which is a very real possibility), then I wouldn't be opposed moving off some money and creating some room for a center than we think we can develop into that player. I'm ok running with this group this post season and next (with whatever lateral movements we can make along the way) and being patient and reloading all our picks after the 2023 draft. We'll be able to make the biggest splash possible that way and who knows, maybe we'll even hit on a draft pick. Luka's extension hasn't even started yet, we still got plenty of time to figure this out so spending all our assets and paying 40 mil a year on an aging Gobert feels a little too desperate to me (although I do agree that he could make us true contenders).
(04-04-2022, 02:24 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]My "short list" comment is meant to describe the number of players who can be the type of switchable, quick-feet bigs who I'd judge able to do what Powell is already doing well on defense AND improve on his rim-protection/post defense, along with defensive rebounding. Obviously the list gets even shorter when you factor in what Powell gives this team on offense.
Off the top of my head, I'd say Adebayo, Williams and JJJ would all be improvements without losing much of what Powell is currently giving the team (though clearly not avaiable). It's possible that Holmes would be, too, but I'm less sure about that than most. I'm honestly not confident he's a good player, at this point, but maybe he's just having a really down year. If so, it would be a good time to target him, so I'll just watch and see what types of teams are interested this summer.
To be clear, I'm not sure anyone who fits these criteria definitively will be available, which is kind of my whole point. I'm not at all worried about upgrading Powell. Sure, it would be nice, but I don't think it's an emergency situation like many from the board seem to believe.
I can see some validity in changing course (slightly) to include one stronger, more traditional center for next season, but imho, this only makes sense if the player in question is one of the better players of that type in the league. I suppose I'd be open to Turner, Gobert or Capella to varying degrees, as I can envision ways in which what they bring to the table might offset the negatives that come with being locked into "dinosaur big" mode for portions of each game. But, a player lesser than any of those three (Baynes, Adams, etc, etc) and I think you're in a worse situation than you are right now with Powell/Kleber. And, even with a guy north of the quality line I'm arbitrarily drawing here, I think Powell/Kleber (whoever is left) is still going to be the better option in a lot of situations, so I'm not super thrilled about the idea of having to pay this hypothetical newcomer so much.
And, to be even more clear about where I stand on this, I would be FINE with an Adams/Baynes type replacing Boban. In fact, I think that should happen, but don't expect it to. But in that scenario, they'd play only slightly more than Boban does, anyway, so it's nothing to get in a huge twist over imho.
I agree with a lot of this, but I feel like Powell's role on defense is overblown. He is basically a 4 on defense and not elite. Playing with him as our lone big is basically like playing centerless basketball from a defensive standpoint. We can do that with a lot of guys.
I look at every legit contender out there, and every one has an elite big man or an elite defensive big (I'm considering Draymond a big). I feel like folks looked at the Clippers with their take it or leave it center, and decided that was the model to follow. It works for them because they have elite wing talent. The Mavs don't have that. They need a dominate defensive presence in the frontcourt. The closest thing they have is Maxi, but he wears down easily and has some serious offensive limitations.
(04-04-2022, 05:56 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]One name that I keep looking at that hasn't been mentioned (at least in today's conversation I think, apologies if I missed it) is Duke's Mark Williams who is slated to land in the late first round ....
I have been looking at him also as the right sort of center prospect. If he's gettable, I hope they pick him, as he fits the profile on both ends it seems. But not sure he'll be on the board when the Mavs pick - depending on who is prognosticating, some think he's going way before, in fact.
Looked into the Jaxson Hayes situation a bit more, maybe there's a potential deal there somewhere. He was already on the trade block this past deadline. Only has 1 year left before he's an RFA and there's no room for him to start if Zion comes back, so he'll have to come off the bench. Get his Bird rights and should be able to resign him as a RFA pretty easily after a trial year. He's already a 77%+ FT shooter so there's no worries about that part of the game like there would be with Mitchell Robinson.
The Pels were the other team interested in THJ this past offseason right? I think they are looking for some bench scoring. If there's no direct deal with the Pels available, maybe there's a way to work some multi team deal with the Knicks or something where we shed THJ, get Hayes, and get our 2023 pick back from the Knicks somehow. Would really suck to lose Brunson but I think we can be ok moving Dinwiddie to the starting lineup and maybe get Dragic to take the bench ballhandler role while Luka is off the court. At the end of the day, flipping Brunson for some combo of the 2019 8th overall pick, shedding THJ, and the 2023 pick would be great asset management.
Future starting lineup of Luka/Dinwiddie/(Bullock or JGreen)/DoeDoe/Hayes looks good to me.
Use the Pels 3 years of development in the league instead of drafting a guy in the mid 20's that may take 3+ years of development himself. Hayes is still 21, about to turn 22. Still a ton of room for growth.
Put me in the HARD PASS group for plans based on jettisoning JB, in any iteration.
(04-04-2022, 06:58 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Put me in the HARD PASS group for plans based on jettisoning JB, in any iteration.
I’m with you on this, although not all iterations are in the Mavs hands.
(04-04-2022, 05:56 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]whatever little assets we have
It is a good conversation and I don't have much to add, at least not something I haven't already said a couple of times
I would just like to comment on this part. Mavs own 7 of their next 8 picks. I know about Stepien rule and protections on the 2023 pick, but not much creativity is needed to put even 4 picks on the table on draft night, if the right opportunity arises. Even in the summer, Mavs could realistically put 3 picks on the table. This is not little assets. I am certain the great recruiters already have everything agreed with the next disgruntled star we don't even know it is disgruntled yet
The big question for me is what to do if that star doesn't get available or doesn't want to come. Do you go for a move like Boston (White), Denver (Gordon), Clippers (Morris), Miami (Lowry) made in recent years? A good player that costs a pick or two. Makes you better but likely limits your flexibility going forward. Or do you save the assets, perhaps improve around the edges (don't expect much for our role players) and more or less wait for your chance for the big move?
I think playoff result will have a lot of impact on this decision.
(04-04-2022, 08:03 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I’m with you on this, although not all iterations are in the Mavs hands.
Didn't say they were.
I said: "Put me in the HARD PASS group for
plans based on jettisoning JB, in any iteration," and the choice of "plans" is 100% in the Mavs hands.
(04-04-2022, 03:44 PM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]TBH, I like the sound of Turner more. He is on the books for $18M next season, but is a UFA afterwards. Even if you went into the $20M+ to re-sign, he would still be better economically than Gobert and he fits the age timeline with Luka, Spence and JB. A little concern about durability, but if he's sharing minutes with DP, then it helps him stay healthy.
Of course, no one knows his availability right now.
This is all just hand waving anyway. Only a few people know what trades are really available. Nobody had KP going for Spence and Davis until it happened.
Yeah, I'm all on board with Turner for the right price- something like THJ plus our upcoming 1st.
(04-04-2022, 03:01 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'll acknowledge that Davis might be the perfect name to add, but I want no part of him, personally. I think he's lazy, entitled, oft-injured, unwilling to fight through minor injuries for the sake of the team, void of any leadership and too famous to be led. In short, I don't think he's a winner.
I find it funny you write AD off (and I agree with everything you wrote here), but in the next post you say:
(04-04-2022, 03:08 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Ben Simmons
I think all those monikers apply even more to Simmons. Curious that you don't think the guy who has quit on every single team where he didn't get his way would be the perfect guy to play 2nd fiddle next to Luka for the foreseeable future.
Mind you I don't think either of these guys are available. But even if they were I wouldn't want to trade for either of them (not like the Mavs could put together realistic packages anyways).
Ben Simmons seems like the anti-DP in that he has physical gifts Powell could only dream of but unlike Powell all his former teammates and coaches hate his guts and he's terrified of failure.
Turner will likely have interest from enough teams to price the Mavs out. I don't think they will land him unless they are willing to package multiple picks (which I wouldn't). I'm also not fond of giving him a new $20M+ deal due to his injury history and concerns about sticking in the closing lineup. That's a contract you might end up regretting very quickly.
(04-04-2022, 09:04 PM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I'm all on board with Turner for the right price- something like THJ plus our upcoming 1st.
Yeah, that would be my ideal scenario. Or maybe even better that package for Capela. We manage either one of those deals and hang on to Brunson, I would be completely stoked for the long term future.
(04-04-2022, 10:17 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]Turner will likely have interest from enough teams to price the Mavs out. I don't think they will land him unless they are willing to package multiple picks (which I wouldn't). I'm also not fond of giving him a new $20M+ deal due to his injury history and concerns about sticking in the closing lineup. That's a contract you might end up regretting very quickly.
I'm not convinced that's true. While he is obviously a talented player, you have to consider
1. His contract number vs. the declining value of centers in the league
2. He'll be a free agent next year
3. He may actually WANT to be in Dallas more than anywhere else, which ties in to 2
4. His health situation which you already mentioned
5. Many teams already have a starting center solution
All of these will combine to limit his market to a certain degree. Not saying they might not get better offers, just not convinced they will.
(04-04-2022, 10:17 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]Turner will likely have interest from enough teams to price the Mavs out. I don't think they will land him unless they are willing to package multiple picks (which I wouldn't). I'm also not fond of giving him a new $20M+ deal due to his injury history and concerns about sticking in the closing lineup. That's a contract you might end up regretting very quickly
I don't know. I remember once upon a time the going rate for Turner 3 years ago was 3 FRP. Then Pacers fans wanted Jrue Holiday. Then there was the whole Gordon Hayward debacle where it was
Boston turning the Pacers down in a deal centered around Turner.
I think the actual value of Turner is MUCH lower than what we all think. For as much as we all like him, he's still a center that has been dealing with injuries. Pacers have always shopped him too.
The same reason why you're concerned giving him 20+mil is the same reason why I wouldn't be surprised if he went for just a non-lotto first and salary matching.
(04-04-2022, 11:31 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know. I remember once upon a time the going rate for Turner 3 years ago was 3 FRP. Then Pacers fans wanted Jrue Holiday. Then there was the whole Gordon Hayward debacle where it was Boston turning the Pacers down in a deal centered around Turner.
I think the actual value of Turner is MUCH lower than what we all think. For as much as we all like him, he's still a center that has been dealing with injuries. Pacers have always shopped him too.
The same reason why you're concerned giving him 20+mil is the same reason why I wouldn't be surprised if he went for just a non-lotto first and salary matching.
There is also the THJ/Carlisle connection. On a young rebuilding team, it's possible THJ could have more contextual value as a high-character guy who has a good relationship with the coach.
Yeah absolutely I feel like trying to turn THJ + 2022 pick into a big of some kind has to be the plan
I have trouble figuring out how he's going to fit back into the rotation next year with Dinwiddie around.
(04-04-2022, 11:31 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know. I remember once upon a time the going rate for Turner 3 years ago was 3 FRP. Then Pacers fans wanted Jrue Holiday. Then there was the whole Gordon Hayward debacle where it was Boston turning the Pacers down in a deal centered around Turner.
I think the actual value of Turner is MUCH lower than what we all think. For as much as we all like him, he's still a center that has been dealing with injuries. Pacers have always shopped him too.
The same reason why you're concerned giving him 20+mil is the same reason why I wouldn't be surprised if he went for just a non-lotto first and salary matching.
Turner is a center that doesn’t rebound. That’s enough to pass unless it’s a very favorable deal for the Mavs. His career average is 6.7 reb / game.