(03-18-2022, 02:31 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Tonight vs Embiid should be the worst possible matchup out there today, so we'll see how he holds up. Also Chriss is probable so he may get some minutes to show what he can do as well.
If Chriss doesn't play, I can't see how the Mavs win this. The Mavs will need more than one big body on Embid and I'm not sure we can even include Powell as a big body
(03-18-2022, 01:27 PM)Mikelorenzo Wrote: [ -> ]thanks for the answer..forgive my audacity..what would those 5 guys be?.. Personally of the "achievable" ones I like Poelt as a cheap Gobert, but I'm not sure how he would fit in. I'm also intrigued by Randle, if he's willing to be a 3 option..
Well there's two ways to answer this. One can be top 5 realistic guys, or top 5 guys if you could just pick someone.
Top 5ish realistic guys these summer I'd be targeting in no particular order:
- Richaun Holmes
- Mitchell Robinson
- Jusuf Nurkic
- Myles Turner
- Sneaky choices that also make the cut are Jakob Poeltl and Clint Capela but I have no clue if they are even available.
- I guess I'd throw in Wendell Carter Jr. as a wildcard too.
Top 5 guys I just would like as a center
- Ayton
- Adebayo
- Jokic
- KAT
- Gobert
(03-17-2022, 04:54 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]So the Mavs were shopping him a half season after signing him because he was injured? That makes no sense if they believe what you're saying. They were reportedly shopping him before switching to focus on KP, so SD and DB weren't in the picture yet (possibly).
In the last 3 years according to bbref, between 80 and 84% of THJ's 3's are assisted, between 51 and 66% of his 2's are assisted. That's not Bertans %, but I don't get how it's "scorer's" % either. I guess I need to read that article to know how he defines scorer, because what you explained makes little sense to me.
So, I finally read the Iztok article. His criteria for the 3 spot as it pertains to THJ is one that basically says he scores more ppg than the 4 and 5 spots. He scores some 2’s (at least 50% assisted), but mostly 3’s (at least 80% assisted), doesn’t assist others significantly, doesn’t handle the ball well outside 1-2 dribbles (and those dribbles are mostly to side-step a defender). The 4 and 5’s have those same qualities, as well as being play finishers (a part of the listed 3 qualities for whatever reason).
Side note: Like RC, Iztok gave lip service to defense in the article but I never saw evidence of using it in any of the categories he put players in. In what world is Dillon Brooks the same category as THJ. I mean, offensively I want Brooks more than THJ, then defensively they are worlds apart! Defense is just as (if not more) important as offense in the playoffs.
(03-18-2022, 06:20 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Well there's two ways to answer this. One can be top 5 realistic guys, or top 5 guys if you could just pick someone.
Top 5ish realistic guys these summer I'd be targeting in no particular order:
- Richaun Holmes
- Mitchell Robinson
- Jusuf Nurkic
- Myles Turner
- Sneaky choices that also make the cut are Jakob Poeltl and Clint Capela but I have no clue if they are even available.
- I guess I'd throw in Wendell Carter Jr. as a wildcard too.
Top 5 guys I just would like as a center- Ayton
- Adebayo
- Jokic
- KAT
- Gobert
I think the only realistic name on the list is Richaun Holmes, maybe an outside shot at Jusuf Nurkic.
Of course if they put Brunson on the table, then all bets are off.
My targets
Draft
Goga (if we trade with the Pacers for THJ, he´d be my #1 target, cheap rookie contract, legit big center with rebounding and shot blocking coming into his own to complement Powell/Kleber)
Holmes (low value due to fallout)
Bamba (forget the draft position and see him for what he is: a gettable young cheap center option with upside)
Hartenstein (same as Bamba)
Cheap veterans
Biyombo
Robin Lopez
Drummond
Dieng
Thompson
Realistically you don´t even need to spend much to make one of cheap happen.
Wildcard: Dario Saric. For all of his career he seems to be a big moment player and I doubt he is in the long-term plans of the Suns anymore after the ACL injury.
(03-19-2022, 05:23 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]So, I finally read the Iztok article. His criteria for the 3 spot as it pertains to THJ is one that basically says he scores more ppg than the 4 and 5 spots. He scores some 2’s (at least 50% assisted), but mostly 3’s (at least 80% assisted), doesn’t assist others significantly, doesn’t handle the ball well outside 1-2 dribbles (and those dribbles are mostly to side-step a defender). The 4 and 5’s have those same qualities, as well as being play finishers (a part of the listed 3 qualities for whatever reason).
Side note: Like RC, Iztok gave lip service to defense in the article but I never saw evidence of using it in any of the categories he put players in. In what world is Dillon Brooks the same category as THJ. I mean, offensively I want Brooks more than THJ, then defensively they are worlds apart! Defense is just as (if not more) important as offense in the playoffs.
I think Iztok make it clear he was focusing on offense for that article. In that thread I made the argument that in order for the 4 and 5 to be useful playoff pieces, they need to add defense to the equation (perimeter defense for the 4 and rim protection for the 5) where it is gravy for the other spots.
Brooks is a better defender than THJ, but I don't really know why you would prefer him offensively to Timmy? I believe you referred to THJ as an inefficient chucker, but Brooks is way less efficient. He has never had a True shooting much north of 50%.
I agree defense is important, especially at the team level, but when evaluating individual players, offense is the bigger driver. There is a much bigger difference between a good offensive player and a bad offensive player than there is on the defensive end.
(03-19-2022, 10:03 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]I think the only realistic name on the list is Richaun Holmes, maybe an outside shot at Jusuf Nurkic.
Of course if they put Brunson on the table, then all bets are off.
My targets
Draft
Goga (if we trade with the Pacers for THJ, he´d be my #1 target, cheap rookie contract, legit big center with rebounding and shot blocking coming into his own to complement Powell/Kleber)
Holmes (low value due to fallout)
Bamba (forget the draft position and see him for what he is: a gettable young cheap center option with upside)
Hartenstein (same as Bamba)
Cheap veterans
Biyombo
Robin Lopez
Drummond
Dieng
Thompson
Realistically you don´t even need to spend much to make one of cheap happen.
Wildcard: Dario Saric. For all of his career he seems to be a big moment player and I doubt he is in the long-term plans of the Suns anymore after the ACL injury.
My thing on a list like this is how many of these guys would you want to be on the court finishing a playoff game? Holmes and Nurkic (who I'm not sure really fits) are the only two on this list.
If we are just looking for a guy to eat 20 minutes, then who are our finishing big(s)? In my mind this is the biggest potential for improvement right now. We really need a defensive anchor that won't completely wilt away offensively in crunch time, but is mobile enough not to get run off the court.
(03-18-2022, 06:20 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Well there's two ways to answer this. One can be top 5 realistic guys, or top 5 guys if you could just pick someone.
Top 5ish realistic guys these summer I'd be targeting in no particular order:
- Richaun Holmes
- Mitchell Robinson
- Jusuf Nurkic
- Myles Turner
- Sneaky choices that also make the cut are Jakob Poeltl and Clint Capela but I have no clue if they are even available.
- I guess I'd throw in Wendell Carter Jr. as a wildcard too.
As a public service reminder, S&T’s and any FA projected to make over the TP MLE should be eliminated from the list.
(03-19-2022, 10:16 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think Iztok make it clear he was focusing on offense for that article. In that thread I made the argument that in order for the 4 and 5 to be useful playoff pieces, they need to add defense to the equation (perimeter defense for the 4 and rim protection for the 5) where it is gravy for the other spots.
Brooks is a better defender than THJ, but I don't really know why you would prefer him offensively to Timmy? I believe you referred to THJ as an inefficient chucker, but Brooks is way less efficient. He has never had a True shooting much north of 50%.
I agree defense is important, especially at the team level, but when evaluating individual players, offense is the bigger driver. There is a much bigger difference between a good offensive player and a bad offensive player than there is on the defensive end.
Iztok wrote, and I quote "The first step was to find a matching metric for each of Myers' criteria in the season's data,
minus how a player defends his position." He then went on to talk about all the offensive stuff, but never added anything to subtract "how a player defends his position". I didn't see if this was a part 1 of a 2 part series of articles, so that is why I wrote what I wrote. If he meant the "minus" as in not taking defense into consideration, that was poorly worded. In an article titled "What types of players win NBA playoff series? Do the Mavericks have enough of them?" That screams defense NEEDS to be a part of the equation.
As far as Brooks vs THJ solely on offense? He's more of what Kidd is trying to do on this team by playing 3 guards to start. Brooks can handle the ball much better than THJ and get to the rim and finish much better, and he does it from the mid sized wing spot. That is what Kidd is trying to create by teaching DFS to do the same, as I've noticed he's gotten a bit more comfortable doing that when he sees a decent opening. Brooks' shots from inside the arc are 70% of his shooting with his lowest % being right inside the 3 line. THJ's is 43% with the biggest % being just inside the 3 line (right at the spot where you take 1 or 2 dribbles to evade the defender, either around a pick or from a rushing opponent). If we had Brooks on the team, Kidd would never need to start 3 guards.
The more of those guys we have on the team, the more they can be taught to buy into finding more assists. After we get those guys, we can focus on getting better shooters to finish off those assists (to which THJ would be great if his 2 year #'s are the new norm...not so much if the 6.5 years are real, albeit he's still on a contract less fitting that type of role).
(03-19-2022, 10:41 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]As a public service reminder, S&T’s and any FA projected to make over the TP MLE should be eliminated from the list.
So that eliminates Nurkic and Robinson. And also severely caps whatever package we can conjure up for Clint and Turner.
Leaves:
Still I'll keep my list intact for now because it's hard to gauge anyone's value accurately before the playoffs. Maybe the Hawks really are motivated to get off of Capela's money. Maybe the Pacers have a falling out with Turner in the summer.
Maybe the Mavs actually take the draft seriously and find the guy we're looking for on draft night... Ok nevermind I've gone off the deep end with that idea.
Can´t we theoretically drastically reduce our pay-roll and change the FA rules that appy to us?
Are the rules fixed based on the roster we have on July 1st?
The Pacers have enough capspace, where we could just dump THJ into space and use our $11M TPE to get Bitadze back. That´s legal, right?
That would reduce our pay-roll below the tax apron and we can use our MLE before re-signing Brunson with bird rights?
(03-19-2022, 12:06 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Can´t we theoretically drastically reduce our pay-roll and change the FA rules that appy to us?
Are the rules fixed based on the roster we have on July 1st?
The Pacers have enough capspace, where we could just dump THJ into space and use our $11M TPE to get Bitadze back. That´s legal, right?
That would reduce our pay-roll below the tax apron and we can use our MLE before re-signing Brunson with bird rights?
We can resign Brunson and make legal trades after too. We just can't make a SnT and go into the Tax.
(03-19-2022, 12:06 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Can´t we theoretically drastically reduce our pay-roll and change the FA rules that apply to us?
Are the rules fixed based on the roster we have on July 1st?
The Pacers have enough capspace, where we could just dump THJ into space and use our $11M TPE to get Bitadze back. That´s legal, right?
That would reduce our pay-roll below the tax apron and we can use our MLE before re-signing Brunson with bird rights?
The detailed explanation would be boring, but the practical answer to that overall question is "No, that's really not an option." There's no practical way to remove that much payroll without wrecking the whole team (giving away assets you need, and picks), and you can't go over the hard cap later - it is not passable for the entire season.
Re where they go from here - Rather than straddle the line and get cornered into financial inability to add talent, the better solution will be to continue to
add the best talent possible, where and how they can, and live with the tax hit. They should have done this in 2011, and need to do it now. Talented players are way better than cap room when you need to get talent you lack. When you have talent, even in abundance, don't let it get away for free.
To continue on that road, you have to be excellent at scouting-drafting-developing players, and you have to sign and keep your own (for your own use, or to trade later for what you need) when you hit on a winner. The re-signing of JB is doubly crucial, but it's very doable so long as MC will write the checks. It's a big-money world, and you gotta pay to play.
(03-19-2022, 10:33 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]My thing on a list like this is how many of these guys would you want to be on the court finishing a playoff game? Holmes and Nurkic (who I'm not sure really fits) are the only two on this list.
If we are just looking for a guy to eat 20 minutes, then who are our finishing big(s)? In my mind this is the biggest potential for improvement right now. We really need a defensive anchor that won't completely wilt away offensively in crunch time, but is mobile enough not to get run off the court.
Agree with this, but biggest problem is that we don't have assets to get a better players. I would be perfectly ok with some of the players from that list.
Give 1 player from that list to this roster, while having a draft pick it's perfectly ok to me to next TDL.
I think the fastest way to get that defensive anchor is going to be through the draft.
(03-19-2022, 12:39 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]The detailed explanation would be boring, but the practical answer to that overall question is "No, that's really not an option." There's no practical way to remove that much payroll without wrecking the whole team (giving away assets you need, and picks), and you can't go over the hard cap later - it is not passable for the entire season.
Re where they go from here - Rather than straddle the line and get cornered into financial inability to add talent, the better solution will be to continue to add the best talent possible, where and how they can, and live with the tax hit. They should have done this in 2011, and need to do it now. Talented players are way better than cap room when you need to get talent you lack. When you have talent, even in abundance, don't let it get away for free.
To continue on that road, you have to be excellent at scouting-drafting-developing players, and you have to sign and keep your own (for your own use, or to trade later for what you need) when you hit on a winner. The re-signing of JB is doubly crucial, but it's very doable so long as MC will write the checks. It's a big-money world, and you gotta pay to play.
I feel like THJ and a couple seconds and DB and our 2022 first (maybe OKC bites) could get us to a place with some open roster spots and a bit of money to spend.
(03-20-2022, 11:34 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I feel like THJ and a couple seconds and DB and our 2022 first (maybe OKC bites) could get us to a place with some open roster spots and a bit of money to spend.
Nope!
You’d be giving up two useful players and picks and once you retain Brunson, you’d only be able to use the TP MLE…not even the full MLE.
(03-20-2022, 10:05 AM)MAVS-SLO Wrote: [ -> ]Agree with this, but biggest problem is that we don't have assets to get a better players. I would be perfectly ok with some of the players from that list.
Give 1 player from that list to this roster, while having a draft pick it's perfectly ok to me to next TDL.
I think the fastest way to get that defensive anchor is going to be through the draft.
This is where I’m at as well. This is a big man heavy draft class. Keep that pick and try to get one there.
Free up roster spots with Burke, Brown and Bertans/THJ
Im not so sure we can’t find a way to trade that Bertans contract. That would open up possibilities like keeping THJ and Brunson while remaining under the apron
I think you can trade Bertans for McDermott pretty “easily” considering how loved Davis was/is in SA, it might cost less to unload him there than a team like OKC for example
(03-20-2022, 01:26 PM)SamStetz Wrote: [ -> ]I think you can trade Bertans for McDermott pretty “easily” considering how loved Davis was/is in SA, it might cost less to unload him there than a team like OKC for example
McDermott is the far better player and has 2 years / 27m remaining on his deal compared to 3 years / 49m for Bertans. I'm skeptical that San Antonio would make that swap even if the Mavs throw in this year's 1st round pick.
Dallas is better off riding out Bertans' contract anyway. Perhaps he'll remember how to shoot sometime in the next 3 years.
I don't get the rush to move off Bertans. He's had some poor showings but he's also shown flashes of the exact kind of shooting we want from the bench.
It also feels like players are looking for him less in the last 5 games, but that just might be my bias.
(03-20-2022, 06:48 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I don't get the rush to move off Bertans. He's had some poor showings but he's also shown flashes of the exact kind of shooting we want from the bench.
It also feels like players are looking for him less in the last 5 games, but that just might be my bias.
I should highlight, I had tossed around the idea of trading for Bertans as part of a salary dump deal prior to the KP trade on Discord, so I do believe that he can return to his 3-point expertise and I’m personally not in any rush to move off of him.
I just don’t see a scenario in which all four of JB/THJ/SDW/Bertans are here next season