(05-31-2022, 10:59 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]They certainly weren’t doing themselves any favors when their top draft guy is nowhere to be found come time to draft!
I still cannot wrap my mind around the depths of the dysfunction that led to such a crazy thing. Just wow.
If the Mavs can just have all the informed people together and a clear decision making tree in place, they should improve their results in drafting quite a bit!
(05-31-2022, 11:04 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]If the Mavs can just have all the informed people together and a clear decision making tree in place, they should improve their results in drafting quite a bit!
Very true.
I'm wondering what effect the new blood might have on the extent to which the team even values the draft.
(05-31-2022, 11:11 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'm wondering what effect the new blood might have on the extent to which the team even values the draft.
I am very hopeful they will value it a lot. I think there is a ton of talent there at #26. Much of it won't pan out, but some will. I am convinced some very good players with long careers will come from #26 and later in this draft. Mavs need to put every effort into finding one of those players.
(05-30-2022, 09:15 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]try trading him.
i dont think there is much difference between the two. neither one is very skilled at playoff winning bball.
tim is the better all around athlete...but cant do shit to contribute to winning unless hes on fire. Bertans is a more specialized player...seems to move off ball better than THJ and has stats to back up his volume shooting over thj. maybe his length helps him over THJ in more situations.
both are trash. I would argue in the right system Bertans could contribute more. my opinion. but there isnt much difference
If you think Timmy's contract will be anywhere near as hard to move as Bertans, then I don't know what to tell you. Go google any "worst contracts in NBA" list and Bertans is generally in the top 5. Tim is not in that ballpark. His value is going to be a little depressed right now because he started last season slowly and then missed the rest with injury, but that is something that can be erased with a decent couple of months.
Tim is not skilled at playoff winning bball? He score over 17 points a game on decent efficiency against elite NBA playoff defense two years in a row. To be honest, given your sig, I expected a little better argument than simply calling our players trash.
(05-31-2022, 08:41 AM)Mavs32 Wrote: [ -> ]or you could tweak it
Dallas get Collins and Capella
Philly gets THJ, Dwight Powell and Gallinaari (who they can wave or keep)
Atlanta gets Tobias, Maxi and Danny Green (who's $10m is non guaranteed) plus Dallas's pick this year or Josh Green.
Philly gets depth and managable contracts
Atlanta saves a ton of money and reduces number of players
Dallas gets two starters
Luka/SD/Frank
Brunson/Green/Brown
DFS/Bullock
Collins/FA/Bertans
Capella/FA/Chriss
Atlanta is not sending out Collins + Capela for Tobias + Maxi + Green + crappy asset. Its not even close. Tobias is a negative asset, they scoffed at the idea of Maxi for Collins when he was restricted, and the rest does not move the needle.
A package for Collins alone would be something like Dorian + Maxi + pick. I am guessing most folks (except for Kamm) would not be excited about that trade, but it is likely what it would take.
My understanding is that Atlanta is not trying to dump salary and players, I think they are trying to get better and my understanding is that they want to get bigger around Tre. I don't see the Mavs being very helpful to that goal.
It is possible that something like Timmy + Powell could get you Tobias. I would be open to pulling that trigger.
(05-31-2022, 10:48 AM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]We are ships in the night, amigo. I was trying (poorly perhaps) to say even the great GSW hasn’t outperformed Mavs in the draft recently. I get your outside-the-top-10 focus, but I don’t understand leaving Brunson, Finney-Smith, Kleber out of the equation.
My point was that the Mavs need to have a PIPELINE of bargain-contract players, and if they bail on 26 "because we can't find players anyhow" (rather than take a confident swing at finding a, bargain-contract player), then that's a terrible approach.
Brunson, DFS, and Maxi are yesterday's news in relation to what they need. I didn't ignore them in relation to being found, but all have moved on from being cheap bargain-contract players. Adopting the idea that 'We don't need to try anymore, we found some before, one was even a draft pick between 56 and 60!! And besides, who knows if we can find another' would be the way they worked historically, but it needs to change to one that is aggressively trying to (and able to) find and develop talent.
(05-31-2022, 04:16 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]My point was that the Mavs need to have a PIPELINE of bargain-contract players, and if they bail on 26 "because we can't find players anyhow" (rather than take a confident swing at finding a, bargain-contract player), then that's a terrible approach.
Brunson, DFS, and Maxi are yesterday's news in relation to what they need. I didn't ignore them in relation to being found, but all have moved on from being cheap bargain-contract players. Adopting the idea that 'We don't need to try anymore, we found some before, one was even a draft pick between 56 and 60!! And besides, who knows if we can find another' would be the way they worked historically, but it needs to change to one that is aggressively trying to (and able to) find and develop talent.
Preach. This is compounded because DFS is no longer a 4 million dollar man and Jalen is going to be north of 20. We need to draft, find diamonds in the rough in undrafted guys and then go with reclamation projects. Frank was a good start in that regard. Our cupboard is pretty bare on guy overperforming value contracts.
Does anyone think there is a chance we see a Waive and Stretch this off-season. I'm thinking specifically of Bertans. Normally I'd scoff at the idea, but LT math may make this worth at least considering. The way I understand the rule is we'd take his remaining guaranteed salary ($38mm) and divide it over 2x remaining seasons plus one. So, we'd be eating $5.43mm per year for the next seven years. At first blush, eating $38mm for a player capable of making a marginal contribution is just silly. Dallas will have that albatross on it's cap sheet for the rest of Luka's 20's.
But, salary over the line is multiplied for tax purposes and creates an arbitrage. Dallas currently sits $4.3mm over the tax and when you add Brunson you are probably $25mm over (or more). This doesn't count the pick at about $2.2mm. It does count the NG contracts of Maxi and Frank. Let's just use the $25mm over number to keep things round. The first $20mm over costs $75mm plus another $21.25mm for the final $5mm. That is an extra $96mm in tax for being $25mm over the LT line. That is where we sit if we do nothing but bring everyone back (including Brunson).
One might say Brunson is costing all of that tax since he's the last big addition. But, you could also argue that the final dollars in the calculation belong to the worst contract. IF that is Bertans, then the tax difference for for doing a S/W of his $38mm in remaining guaranteed money is $60mm THIS YEAR ALONE. Here is the math...
We go from $25mm over to $14.43mm over ($25mm minus his 22/23 number of $16mm plus the $5.43 S/W value = $14.43 of taxable salary).
The LT on $14.43mm is $36mm. Subtract from $96mm and Yes, eating $38mm over the course of seven years in $5.43mm bites saves $60mm. That is a $22mm arbitrage for Cuban that doesn't take into account possible savings next two seasons after that. Also, if you can find a way to reduce salary by another $4.4mm, the savings jumps to $80mm because the tax for being less than $10mm over the line is $1.75 for every dollar instead of $2.50 for every dollar.
Can you "sell" this to fans? I guess they could say Bertans was always designed to temporarily replace what was lost with THJ's injury. I might buy that since $96mm is a lot of money and cripples "flexibility". But, such a move might help us to be more competitive also. It starts us under the tax by about $6mm. We'd have to get further under to do a Brunson signing AND any of the things that would hard cap us. But saving $10mm on the current cap from a Bertans S/W might put us in the game for some things previously thought to be out of reach. Nico often talks about getting "a seat at the table" and he sounds like he's talking about free agents. I doubt outright Full MLE signings can work without dramatic additional cuts, but we are starting to get into the neighborhood on S&T's working if we send out more salary than we receive (or dump some minor contracts).
$153.3mm Current Salary committed including Maxi and Frank
-$10.6mm Savings from Bertans S/W
+20.0mm Brunson signing
$162.7mm $7.7mm over the hard cap
Can we envision any of Brooklyn, Orlando, NY or LAC taking Powell and some assortment of players from us for a S&T Claxton, Bamba, Robinson or Hartenstein? We just need to get rid of about $8mm more than we bring in either through trade or salary dump (and be willing to be hard-capped for the season).
(05-31-2022, 07:40 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]The first $20mm over costs $75mm plus another $21.25mm for the final $5mm. That is an extra $96mm in tax for being $25mm over the LT line. That is where we sit if we do nothing but bring everyone back (including Brunson).
Unless the CBA FAQ hasn't been updated (or I'm losing my mind) I see the first $20mm over costing $45mm in tax and the next $5mm costing another $18.75mm in tax ($63.75mm total rather than 96).
(05-31-2022, 11:53 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]If you think Timmy's contract will be anywhere near as hard to move as Bertans, then I don't know what to tell you. Go google any "worst contracts in NBA" list and Bertans is generally in the top 5. Tim is not in that ballpark. His value is going to be a little depressed right now because he started last season slowly and then missed the rest with injury, but that is something that can be erased with a decent couple of months.
Tim is not skilled at playoff winning bball? He score over 17 points a game on decent efficiency against elite NBA playoff defense two years in a row. To be honest, given your sig, I expected a little better argument than simply calling our players trash.
Trash was the wrong word. Im guilty.
I threw out the "try trading him" to paint a picture of demand for his overall skill. It wasnt the prettiest picture...but a picture.
Contract has nothing to do with my overall assessment of the two players. I stand by my initial statement that THJ isnt that much better than Bertans. Surely not significantly. My opinion.
The extended argument is going to be that THJ is more versatile due to his athleticism or something along those lines. I give you that...THJ might do a few more things or bring a few more things to the table offensively. I still stand by my evaluation of THJ not being significantly better than Bertans.
There is no need to muddy this debate with bringing up THJ intangibles such as leadership and what not. Im strictly talking about on court value.
(05-31-2022, 08:08 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]Unless the CBA FAQ hasn't been updated (or I'm losing my mind) I see the first $20mm over costing $45mm in tax and the next $5mm costing another $18.75mm in tax ($63.75mm total rather than 96).
Yeah, I missed the incremental maximums. I came up with $66.25mm, but either way, much closer to your number than my original number.
The arbitrage still exists, just not to the extent I envisioned.
(05-31-2022, 12:06 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Atlanta is not sending out Collins + Capela for Tobias + Maxi + Green + crappy asset. Its not even close. Tobias is a negative asset, they scoffed at the idea of Maxi for Collins when he was restricted, and the rest does not move the needle.
A package for Collins alone would be something like Dorian + Maxi + pick. I am guessing most folks (except for Kamm) would not be excited about that trade, but it is likely what it would take.
My understanding is that Atlanta is not trying to dump salary and players, I think they are trying to get better and my understanding is that they want to get bigger around Tre. I don't see the Mavs being very helpful to that goal.
It is possible that something like Timmy + Powell could get you Tobias. I would be open to pulling that trigger.
what you didn't seem to consider is that Atlanta saves almost $20mil in cap in that deal. that is not nothing. Green gets waived because he won't even be available for that last year of his deal and if they want they can waive Maxi for cheap as well.
I heard different on the rumored Maxi deal. they did not scoff at the deal and Dallas wasn't sure if they wanted to do that deal either. Also i have heard that they do have reservations about the high cost for that team and need to consolidate assets a bit since they had players who were not thrilled about their role.
Atlanta is the toughest part but i don't think they laugh the offer off. they considered Tobias when Philly was trying to incorporate them in Simmons deals so its not out of the box to think they might come back to that to save $20mil and pick up Maxi to take Tobias on for two years.
(05-31-2022, 07:40 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Does anyone think there is a chance we see a Waive and Stretch this off-season. I'm thinking specifically of Bertans. Normally I'd scoff at the idea, but LT math may make this worth at least considering. The way I understand the rule is we'd take his remaining guaranteed salary ($38mm) and divide it over 2x remaining seasons plus one. So, we'd be eating $5.43mm per year for the next seven years. At first blush, eating $38mm for a player capable of making a marginal contribution is just silly. Dallas will have that albatross on it's cap sheet for the rest of Luka's 20's.
But, salary over the line is multiplied for tax purposes and creates an arbitrage. Dallas currently sits $4.3mm over the tax and when you add Brunson you are probably $25mm over (or more). This doesn't count the pick at about $2.2mm. It does count the NG contracts of Maxi and Frank. Let's just use the $25mm over number to keep things round. The first $20mm over costs $75mm plus another $21.25mm for the final $5mm. That is an extra $96mm in tax for being $25mm over the LT line. That is where we sit if we do nothing but bring everyone back (including Brunson).
One might say Brunson is costing all of that tax since he's the last big addition. But, you could also argue that the final dollars in the calculation belong to the worst contract. IF that is Bertans, then the tax difference for for doing a S/W of his $38mm in remaining guaranteed money is $60mm THIS YEAR ALONE. Here is the math...
We go from $25mm over to $14.43mm over ($25mm minus his 22/23 number of $16mm plus the $5.43 S/W value = $14.43 of taxable salary).
The LT on $14.43mm is $36mm. Subtract from $96mm and Yes, eating $38mm over the course of seven years in $5.43mm bites saves $60mm. That is a $22mm arbitrage for Cuban that doesn't take into account possible savings next two seasons after that. Also, if you can find a way to reduce salary by another $4.4mm, the savings jumps to $80mm because the tax for being less than $10mm over the line is $1.75 for every dollar instead of $2.50 for every dollar.
Can you "sell" this to fans? I guess they could say Bertans was always designed to temporarily replace what was lost with THJ's injury. I might buy that since $96mm is a lot of money and cripples "flexibility". But, such a move might help us to be more competitive also. It starts us under the tax by about $6mm. We'd have to get further under to do a Brunson signing AND any of the things that would hard cap us. But saving $10mm on the current cap from a Bertans S/W might put us in the game for some things previously thought to be out of reach. Nico often talks about getting "a seat at the table" and he sounds like he's talking about free agents. I doubt outright Full MLE signings can work without dramatic additional cuts, but we are starting to get into the neighborhood on S&T's working if we send out more salary than we receive (or dump some minor contracts).
$153.3mm Current Salary committed including Maxi and Frank
-$10.6mm Savings from Bertans S/W
+20.0mm Brunson signing
$162.7mm $7.7mm over the hard cap
Can we envision any of Brooklyn, Orlando, NY or LAC taking Powell and some assortment of players from us for a S&T Claxton, Bamba, Robinson or Hartenstein? We just need to get rid of about $8mm more than we bring in either through trade or salary dump (and be willing to be hard-capped for the season).
Nice post Dan... I could see Cubes doing this and would be so bold to say, it might have played into the thinking at the TDL this season. "Two players at half the cost of KP should be easier to trade or S/W one of them rather than S/W KP if he gets injured again"? I think Cuban is more in the mold of saving money now, more than what happens 2, 3, 5 or 7 years from now...
Would this be better to play out pre-draft or after FA starts? If we get below the apron, would trades go back to the rule of with-in 5mm range?
(05-31-2022, 07:40 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Does anyone think there is a chance we see a Waive and Stretch this off-season. I'm thinking specifically of Bertans. Normally I'd scoff at the idea, but LT math may make this worth at least considering. The way I understand the rule is we'd take his remaining guaranteed salary ($38mm) and divide it over 2x remaining seasons plus one. So, we'd be eating $5.43mm per year for the next seven years. At first blush, eating $38mm for a player capable of making a marginal contribution is just silly. Dallas will have that albatross on it's cap sheet for the rest of Luka's 20's.
But, salary over the line is multiplied for tax purposes and creates an arbitrage. Dallas currently sits $4.3mm over the tax and when you add Brunson you are probably $25mm over (or more). This doesn't count the pick at about $2.2mm. It does count the NG contracts of Maxi and Frank. Let's just use the $25mm over number to keep things round. The first $20mm over costs $75mm plus another $21.25mm for the final $5mm. That is an extra $96mm in tax for being $25mm over the LT line. That is where we sit if we do nothing but bring everyone back (including Brunson).
One might say Brunson is costing all of that tax since he's the last big addition. But, you could also argue that the final dollars in the calculation belong to the worst contract. IF that is Bertans, then the tax difference for for doing a S/W of his $38mm in remaining guaranteed money is $60mm THIS YEAR ALONE. Here is the math...
We go from $25mm over to $14.43mm over ($25mm minus his 22/23 number of $16mm plus the $5.43 S/W value = $14.43 of taxable salary).
The LT on $14.43mm is $36mm. Subtract from $96mm and Yes, eating $38mm over the course of seven years in $5.43mm bites saves $60mm. That is a $22mm arbitrage for Cuban that doesn't take into account possible savings next two seasons after that. Also, if you can find a way to reduce salary by another $4.4mm, the savings jumps to $80mm because the tax for being less than $10mm over the line is $1.75 for every dollar instead of $2.50 for every dollar.
Can you "sell" this to fans? I guess they could say Bertans was always designed to temporarily replace what was lost with THJ's injury. I might buy that since $96mm is a lot of money and cripples "flexibility". But, such a move might help us to be more competitive also. It starts us under the tax by about $6mm. We'd have to get further under to do a Brunson signing AND any of the things that would hard cap us. But saving $10mm on the current cap from a Bertans S/W might put us in the game for some things previously thought to be out of reach. Nico often talks about getting "a seat at the table" and he sounds like he's talking about free agents. I doubt outright Full MLE signings can work without dramatic additional cuts, but we are starting to get into the neighborhood on S&T's working if we send out more salary than we receive (or dump some minor contracts).
$153.3mm Current Salary committed including Maxi and Frank
-$10.6mm Savings from Bertans S/W
+20.0mm Brunson signing
$162.7mm $7.7mm over the hard cap
Can we envision any of Brooklyn, Orlando, NY or LAC taking Powell and some assortment of players from us for a S&T Claxton, Bamba, Robinson or Hartenstein? We just need to get rid of about $8mm more than we bring in either through trade or salary dump (and be willing to be hard-capped for the season).
I'd hate to have dead cap money over seven years, especially with how we've historically had to overpay players to get here. Maybe that changes with Nico/Kidd plus our team being closer to contention than in recent memory.
Is there an end goal to this move beyond saving money? I don't think you are getting off of Powell. Maybe Orlando, but you'd probably need to spend an asset to get that done. Does that spent asset cost you form accomplishing the bigger goal?
I'm guessing we can't go the other direction and use Bertans in a package for one of two massive expiring contracts that neither team wants?
If I'm Mark Cuban, paying Bertans for 7 years would be a deal breaker. You can get close to the same amount of savings through some alternatives like dumping the 3rd stringers, stretch waiving Powell, or paying anything short of a 1st to move Powell's entire contract.
It's not a crazy idea, but it would make more sense if they were a bit deeper into the tax and/or paying the repeater tax. If Bertans were on the Warriors for example, I think they would stretch waive him in a heartbeat.
(05-31-2022, 08:53 PM)chaparral Wrote: [ -> ]Nice post Dan... I could see Cubes doing this and would be so bold to say, it might have played into the thinking at the TDL this season. "Two players at half the cost of KP should be easier to trade or S/W one of them rather than S/W KP if he gets injured again"? I think Cuban is more in the mold of saving money now, more than what happens 2, 3, 5 or 7 years from now...
Would this be better to play out pre-draft or after FA starts? If we get below the apron, would trades go back to the rule of with-in 5mm range?
Yes on the $5mm rule (good catch). S/W between now and 6/30 or in July/August would work the same.
I think this would be for Bamba if it happens. Orlando doesn’t need Bamba with Carter and the #1 pick. Mosley might like a year of a veteran leader he knows well (Powell) to ease Holmgren into the league and maybe gets a couple of our $3mm guys. From there we dump one more minor contract and can pay Bamba something a hair north of the MLE.
BTW, I was wrong about a S&T for Hartenstein. LAC is limited in what it can pay him.
Worth at least a slight consideration, but I don't think 7 years of dead cap is feasible. The tax money savings is just from Cuban's pocket right? That dead cap is like a 3-5% anchor on the cap for way too long. It's mostly for the immediate cap room over the next few years. They'd need a big plan for it to be worth it to go all in. So it'd have to be some monster S&T with Brunson I guess but that's really hard with his BYC rules. Seriously doubt any of those bigs are worth stretch waiving to facilitate a S&T for. Bamba would be the closest I guess if they really believed he's the absolute perfect guy. He's rail thin though and shares a lot of similarities to KP with avoiding banging inside. I don't think you do a risky move like this for another KP. Maybe it's not bad to have as like a Plan J K L M or N or something way down the line as a last resort if all other options to get a big this offseason fail. At least it's an option.
(05-31-2022, 08:49 PM)Mavs32 Wrote: [ -> ]what you didn't seem to consider is that Atlanta saves almost $20mil in cap in that deal. that is not nothing. Green gets waived because he won't even be available for that last year of his deal and if they want they can waive Maxi for cheap as well.
I heard different on the rumored Maxi deal. they did not scoff at the deal and Dallas wasn't sure if they wanted to do that deal either. Also i have heard that they do have reservations about the high cost for that team and need to consolidate assets a bit since they had players who were not thrilled about their role.
Atlanta is the toughest part but i don't think they laugh the offer off. they considered Tobias when Philly was trying to incorporate them in Simmons deals so its not out of the box to think they might come back to that to save $20mil and pick up Maxi to take Tobias on for two years.
Everything I've read indicates Atlanta is looking for upgrades rather than to sell off good players for parts. I don't see them considering this deal either. Just too far off in value.
(05-31-2022, 07:40 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Does anyone think there is a chance we see a Waive and Stretch this off-season. I'm thinking specifically of Bertans. Normally I'd scoff at the idea, but LT math may make this worth at least considering. The way I understand the rule is we'd take his remaining guaranteed salary ($38mm) and divide it over 2x remaining seasons plus one. So, we'd be eating $5.43mm per year for the next seven years. At first blush, eating $38mm for a player capable of making a marginal contribution is just silly. Dallas will have that albatross on it's cap sheet for the rest of Luka's 20's.
But, salary over the line is multiplied for tax purposes and creates an arbitrage. Dallas currently sits $4.3mm over the tax and when you add Brunson you are probably $25mm over (or more). This doesn't count the pick at about $2.2mm. It does count the NG contracts of Maxi and Frank. Let's just use the $25mm over number to keep things round. The first $20mm over costs $75mm plus another $21.25mm for the final $5mm. That is an extra $96mm in tax for being $25mm over the LT line. That is where we sit if we do nothing but bring everyone back (including Brunson).
One might say Brunson is costing all of that tax since he's the last big addition. But, you could also argue that the final dollars in the calculation belong to the worst contract. IF that is Bertans, then the tax difference for for doing a S/W of his $38mm in remaining guaranteed money is $60mm THIS YEAR ALONE. Here is the math...
We go from $25mm over to $14.43mm over ($25mm minus his 22/23 number of $16mm plus the $5.43 S/W value = $14.43 of taxable salary).
The LT on $14.43mm is $36mm. Subtract from $96mm and Yes, eating $38mm over the course of seven years in $5.43mm bites saves $60mm. That is a $22mm arbitrage for Cuban that doesn't take into account possible savings next two seasons after that. Also, if you can find a way to reduce salary by another $4.4mm, the savings jumps to $80mm because the tax for being less than $10mm over the line is $1.75 for every dollar instead of $2.50 for every dollar.
Can you "sell" this to fans? I guess they could say Bertans was always designed to temporarily replace what was lost with THJ's injury. I might buy that since $96mm is a lot of money and cripples "flexibility". But, such a move might help us to be more competitive also. It starts us under the tax by about $6mm. We'd have to get further under to do a Brunson signing AND any of the things that would hard cap us. But saving $10mm on the current cap from a Bertans S/W might put us in the game for some things previously thought to be out of reach. Nico often talks about getting "a seat at the table" and he sounds like he's talking about free agents. I doubt outright Full MLE signings can work without dramatic additional cuts, but we are starting to get into the neighborhood on S&T's working if we send out more salary than we receive (or dump some minor contracts).
$153.3mm Current Salary committed including Maxi and Frank
-$10.6mm Savings from Bertans S/W
+20.0mm Brunson signing
$162.7mm $7.7mm over the hard cap
Can we envision any of Brooklyn, Orlando, NY or LAC taking Powell and some assortment of players from us for a S&T Claxton, Bamba, Robinson or Hartenstein? We just need to get rid of about $8mm more than we bring in either through trade or salary dump (and be willing to be hard-capped for the season).
So...
What's Bertans' market value right now? If he were a free agent, would he get the MLE? Less?
Shooters generally get paid, even if their defense isn't great.
Comparable players? McDermott (14m)? Wayne Ellington (2.5m)? Bojan Bogdanovic (19m)? Duncan Robinson (16m)? Luke Kennard (13m)? Korkmaz (5m)?
If his true market value is $10m per year, then he's getting overpaid by $8m for the next couple of years. I think I'd take that, including the tax, in order to have another $10m shooter on the team, rather than save tax and have nobody.