(03-16-2022, 01:39 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, the fit really just isn't there.
If the trade were THJ for Randle, with our current lineup, I would do it. I think that Randle could help us more with our thin frontcourt. That said, he has a lot of Antoine Walker in him. We all remember how messed up that was. And I think we would still need a C. I still like to think that Noel could look pretty good here and Rick is gone... soooo...
If THJ would be shipped out to improve hopefully the the Center position I would like to give Michael Beasley a chance to replace his role as a scoring wing from the bench.
I've always liked his game and think on the right team with a clearly defined role could be very valuable player. And MBT already showed they are also giving chances to older players with Brandon Knight and IT (which I'd like to have around as well).
Who would be in on this too?
Question for those who think THJ has value around the league as a shooter. As far as reports are concerned, the Mavs were shopping THJ at the end of the trade season. It was also reported that they were looking for shooting in trade. Putting these two together, IF THJ is a good shooter, why look to trade him? Answer, THJ was a good shooter for 2 seasons of a currently 9 year career. That is why we didn't find a suitor. Shooting is hard to find, esp within THnoJ. His future is yet to be written, but to this point, there is no reason real reason to think he'll bounce back and if there is, it's for a team that has the stars to get him wide open shots.
(03-16-2022, 08:37 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Question for those who think THJ has value around the league as a shooter. As far as reports are concerned, the Mavs were shopping THJ at the end of the trade season. It was also reported that they were looking for shooting in trade. Putting these two together, IF THJ is a good shooter, why look to trade him? Answer, THJ was a good shooter for 2 seasons of a currently 9 year career. That is why we didn't find a suitor. Shooting is hard to find, esp within THnoJ. His future is yet to be written, but to this point, there is no reason real reason to think he'll bounce back and if there is, it's for a team that has the stars to get him wide open shots.
This seems overly harsh. I was not a fan of the THJ signing, but guys that score over 15 a game yearly have value, even if the efficiency varies. The fact that he was one of the few players on this team to show up both years in the playoffs matters too. His 3 percentage was down this season like everyone else on the team (and the NBA in general) and like the rest of the team started to come back when he got hurt.
He might need to wait until the TDL or following season to get to neutral value. At 21 mil he is not a very attractive contract. At 2 for 33 after the cap has gone up a couple more times and its a lot more reasonable.
(03-16-2022, 10:03 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]This seems overly harsh. I was not a fan of the THJ signing, but guys that score over 15 a game yearly have value, even if the efficiency varies. The fact that he was one of the few players on this team to show up both years in the playoffs matters too. His 3 percentage was down this season like everyone else on the team (and the NBA in general) and like the rest of the team started to come back when he got hurt.
He might need to wait until the TDL or following season to get to neutral value. At 21 mil he is not a very attractive contract. At 2 for 33 after the cap has gone up a couple more times and its a lot more reasonable.
At this point, now that he's had this stretch of 32% 3 point shooting and was demoted to the bench, all teams have to ask, were the 2 seasons of great shooting an anomaly or the new norm. The Mavs themselves were shopping THJ and looking for a shooter, tells you how much confidence they have in him, and if they aren't confident in him, why would anyone else be? I know you guys all want to see him as at least neutral value so we can hope for the best. I see his current value as no different than when he was at NY at this point.
Sure, after next season when he's had a chance to prove who he is as a shooter his value could become neutral to positive, but we're not talking about trading him in a year.
(03-16-2022, 06:56 PM)Mavsfan12 Wrote: [ -> ]Randle... That said, he has a lot of Antoine Walker in him.
Wow
That is a great comparison. I mean Walker was a different player. He had a more varied offensive game but sheesh they seem very alike in "feel" to me.
Walker put up big stats but was always less efficient than the true stars putting up similar numbers. I don't find it surprising he never really won anywhere playing big minutes.
(03-16-2022, 10:15 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]At this point, now that he's had this stretch of 32% 3 point shooting and was demoted to the bench, all teams have to ask, were the 2 seasons of great shooting an anomaly or the new norm. The Mavs themselves were shopping THJ and looking for a shooter, tells you how much confidence they have in him, and if they aren't confident in him, why would anyone else be? I know you guys all want to see him as at least neutral value so we can hope for the best. I see his current value as no different than when he was at NY at this point.
Sure, after next season when he's had a chance to prove who he is as a shooter his value could become neutral to positive, but we're not talking about trading him in a year.
I mean he played well enough before Dallas to land that huge contract (which accounting for cap size was bigger than the one he is on now), so its not just the two years he had here.
Also, the talk was trading him for Holmes, who is also a distressed asset. He is having arguably a shittier season than THJ, and it will be for an entire season instead of half of one. He was a free agent last year and Sacto could not pay more than his current 12 mil salary, yet nobody offered more. He has not done much other than his last season or two as well. Why is THJ rough half season going to tear down his value, but the same does not apply to Holmes?
(03-16-2022, 10:21 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Wow
That is a great comparison. I mean Walker was a different player. He had a more varied offensive game but sheesh they seem very alike in "feel" to me.
Walker put up big stats but was always less efficient than the true stars putting up similar numbers. I don't find it surprising he never really won anywhere playing big minutes.
He's not at this point in his career yet, but I'd still love to try someone like Randle as my sixth man and just let him go and kick the ass of second units. I call the role The Kanter.
(03-16-2022, 10:38 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I mean he played well enough before Dallas to land that huge contract (which accounting for cap size was bigger than the one he is on now), so its not just the two years he had here.
Also, the talk was trading him for Holmes, who is also a distressed asset. He is having arguably a shittier season than THJ, and it will be for an entire season instead of half of one. He was a free agent last year and Sacto could not pay more than his current 12 mil salary, yet nobody offered more. He has not done much other than his last season or two as well. Why is THJ rough half season going to tear down his value, but the same does not apply to Holmes?
His contract he got with the Knicks was an overpay based on a projection they thought he could handle going from bench player to a featured starter. He couldn't handle that mantle and that contract was deemed for a long time one of the worst in the NBA. I don't put him fully in that category, but only because the good shooting was for 2 straight years, so there might be a chance he is still that guy. To attach even neutral value to that hope, well, let's just say, the Mavs were shopping him.
Holmes is having a shittier season than THJ who is a shooter that is not good at shooting? Doesn't bring anything else of significance to the table except being an AMAZING hugger? I call BS on that.
I've cooled off of Holmes too since seeing his size is no bigger than Powells. I haven't seen enough of him to know if he plays bigger than he is, that would be the redeeming quality I want on this team. If not, he's a better rebounder and a lot better rim protector than Powell, basically brings more tangibles than Powell. Sometimes you need tangibles when your team is full of intangible guys. That is even in this down year, too. Also, without watching him play much, don't know if there is a downgrade of intangibles to his game to Powell.
Holmes will defiantly get traded this offseason.
(03-16-2022, 10:21 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Wow
That is a great comparison. I mean Walker was a different player. He had a more varied offensive game but sheesh they seem very alike in "feel" to me.
Walker put up big stats but was always less efficient than the true stars putting up similar numbers. I don't find it surprising he never really won anywhere playing big minutes.
Don't really think Randle is anywhere near as bad as Walker efficiency wise. He's had seasons of over 55% efg, which is great. Took a dive this year obviously due to the situation he's in and taking lots of forced bad shots. He can easily have a Dinwiddie style boost playing in a better system and teammates where he's playing with Luka instead of trying to be Luka.
Assuming he's in some sort of deal with Brunson, can have a 3 ballhandler lineup of Luka, Dinwiddie, and Randle and still have decent size. I'm not sure what the main lineup would be with him though, the lack of rim protection does suck and he doesn't really have a good history defensively playing as a small ball 5. Maybe if they believe in Chriss enough as a future starting 5, they could run that down the road. Randle can be the roll man but he's a bit too bulky to be an above the rim player so he mostly scores with his inside moves instead of dunks. Getting him the ball up close usually leads to good things tho. Maybe he's fine to play with Maxi.
Would rather have Wood or Collins for sure though, but I think Randle could easily work out really well. Not sure what the lineup preference would be if the Mavs got Collins either though. Depends on how much they like running Doe Doe at 4 instead of 3. Collins + Maxi would work pretty well I'd think if Maxi could fix his broken shot.
(03-16-2022, 08:37 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Question for those who think THJ has value around the league as a shooter. As far as reports are concerned, the Mavs were shopping THJ at the end of the trade season. It was also reported that they were looking for shooting in trade. Putting these two together, IF THJ is a good shooter, why look to trade him?
Answer:
1 At the TDL, THJ could not provide ANY shooting help to Mavs, because he was injured. They wanted shooting help NOW.
2 Don't accept that this was a set-in-stone referendum on "this is the THJ value" for 29 other teams around the league.
3 Like all deadline non-deals, it was simply a snapshot in time, of the answer then.
4 More real to say Mavs needed a suitor that had to meet all 4 of (a) see overall value in having THJ, (b) don't care he's injured, ( c) have the player(s) the Mavs want, who are also a salary match for trade purposes, and (d) will say yes in light of their own needs and current situation ... and failed to find that team.
5 Personally, I seriously doubt ANY team actually declined trading for THJ because of his shooting stats this season, and think that's a fairly weak take in light of how the league tends to work, but who knows.
(03-16-2022, 10:54 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]His contract he got with the Knicks was an overpay based on a projection they thought he could handle going from bench player to a featured starter. He couldn't handle that mantle and that contract was deemed for a long time one of the worst in the NBA. I don't put him fully in that category, but only because the good shooting was for 2 straight years, so there might be a chance he is still that guy. To attach even neutral value to that hope, well, let's just say, the Mavs were shopping him.
Holmes is having a shittier season than THJ who is a shooter that is not good at shooting? Doesn't bring anything else of significance to the table except being an AMAZING hugger? I call BS on that.
I've cooled off of Holmes too since seeing his size is no bigger than Powells. I haven't seen enough of him to know if he plays bigger than he is, that would be the redeeming quality I want on this team. If not, he's a better rebounder and a lot better rim protector than Powell, basically brings more tangibles than Powell. Sometimes you need tangibles when your team is full of intangible guys. That is even in this down year, too. Also, without watching him play much, don't know if there is a downgrade of intangibles to his game to Powell.
THJ is not a shooter who can't shoot (that would be Bertans right now) he is a scorer that was still putting up over 14 a game while his shot was off. The advanced stats have both of them as better than average players the last couple of years, and average players this year. I'm guessing we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one.
Holmes can get bullied like Powell can (although I don't think its as bad). That is the tradeoff you make when you want to play centers that can guard the P&R and don't get run off the court. The extra rebounding and significant upgrade in rim protection would make a big difference in my mind.
(03-17-2022, 12:52 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Answer:
1 At the TDL, THJ could not provide ANY shooting help to Mavs, because he was injured. They wanted shooting help NOW.
2 Don't accept that this was a set-in-stone referendum on "this is the THJ value" for 29 other teams around the league.
3 Like all deadline non-deals, it was simply a snapshot in time, of the answer then.
4 More real to say Mavs needed a suitor that had to meet all 4 of (a) see overall value in having THJ, (b) don't care he's injured, ( c) have the player(s) the Mavs want, who are also a salary match for trade purposes, and (d) will say yes in light of their own needs and current situation ... and failed to find that team.
5 Personally, I seriously doubt ANY team actually declined trading for THJ because of his shooting stats this season, and think that's a fairly weak take in light of how the league tends to work, but who knows.
1 - Talk about weak take. They just signed him to a 4 year contract and are trying to trade him half a season later because they want more shooting on the team right now? Not buying. If he was playing well during his time before the injury, there would be no question as to if they stay with him.
2 - Correction, all 30 teams. The Mavs didn't (possibly don't) want him either.
3 - How does that snapshot become any different in the offseason when he still hasn't played a game since the injury?
4 - OK, so some substance. Easier to say, no one wanted him including the Mavs.
5 - So, every single team approached thought, don't want him cause he's injured right now. He's a great shooter on a long term contract that gets better with time, but we don't want him because he won't help us this year. Gotcha. The league is just itching for these guys, but won't touch an injured one on a long term contract.
(03-17-2022, 12:56 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]THJ is not a shooter who can't shoot (that would be Bertans right now) he is a scorer that was still putting up over 14 a game while his shot was off. The advanced stats have both of them as better than average players the last couple of years, and average players this year. I'm guessing we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one.
Holmes can get bullied like Powell can (although I don't think its as bad). That is the tradeoff you make when you want to play centers that can guard the P&R and don't get run off the court. The extra rebounding and significant upgrade in rim protection would make a big difference in my mind.
So he's a scorer like KP on a smaller scale. So take the KP trade, scale it down, and that is what you should expect. Remember your valuation of SD and DB before the last 11 games SD has played.
I think one has to look at THJ as both an ok contract as well as a player that is not really needed. I agree with the takes that THJ contract is in the ok range. He does score 15 points per game and that has value. He is elite shooter in terms of capability to shoot it and spread the floor. He has two seasons of proof he can be also a very accurate shooter and I don't think half of season with a bit worse percentage in a slightly different role really changes that perception much.
However, Mavs need ball handling more than they need elite spot up shooting as Luka and Brunson were basically the only ones capable of putting the ball to the floor and be effective. Dinwiddie is a third guy in this category. Since all three ball handlers are guards there are limited minutes available for THJ. Besides, none of our ball handlers is really an elite defender, so Mavs need better defense more than more offense. In this light THJ can be missed and it makes sense for Mavs to looking to move him. Not because he is a bad player, but because they could use help in other areas.
There are certainly teams that could use his elite shooting. Teams that have their ball handlers and need shooting around them. He is perfect addition for every contender that has their stars set. Teams like BKN, Boston, Philly,... never have enough shooting around their stars. Of course, these are all teams that need win now help, not injured players that will be available next season. That is why it is very understandable why his market at the TDL was weak. On the other hand, rebuilding teams with years left before they are relevant have zero need for a vet like him. They could only see him as a salary match with assets being the prize of the trade. Looks like there was nothing available in this aspect either. But I think his market in offseason will be much different.
THJ is a great team guy, which is worth something in itself. No matter the situation, starting or bench, he is engaged and supportive of the team.
He has benefited from playing beside Luka and the gravity associated. He was not shooting as well before the injury, but IIRC the whole team was not shooting well. Early season blahs, increased defensive focus, offense sub-optimized for KP, all made the scoring ugly at times.
This doesn’t say to keep him, but he’s a better option than some of the other ideas that get floated here. Now that KP’s monster salary has been broken into two smaller numbers, DAL has a bunch of trade-able contracts for acquiring talent upgrades.
(03-17-2022, 04:58 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think one has to look at THJ as both an ok contract as well as a player that is not really needed. I agree with the takes that THJ contract is in the ok range. He does score 15 points per game and that has value. He is elite shooter in terms of capability to shoot it and spread the floor. He has two seasons of proof he can be also a very accurate shooter and I don't think half of season with a bit worse percentage in a slightly different role really changes that perception much.
However, Mavs need ball handling more than they need elite spot up shooting as Luka and Brunson were basically the only ones capable of putting the ball to the floor and be effective. Dinwiddie is a third guy in this category. Since all three ball handlers are guards there are limited minutes available for THJ. Besides, none of our ball handlers is really an elite defender, so Mavs need better defense more than more offense. In this light THJ can be missed and it makes sense for Mavs to looking to move him. Not because he is a bad player, but because they could use help in other areas.
There are certainly teams that could use his elite shooting. Teams that have their ball handlers and need shooting around them. He is perfect addition for every contender that has their stars set. Teams like BKN, Boston, Philly,... never have enough shooting around their stars. Of course, these are all teams that need win now help, not injured players that will be available next season. That is why it is very understandable why his market at the TDL was weak. On the other hand, rebuilding teams with years left before they are relevant have zero need for a vet like him. They could only see him as a salary match with assets being the prize of the trade. Looks like there was nothing available in this aspect either. But I think his market in offseason will be much different.
You and FGump have done an excellent job answering the question IGT keeps raising. Multiple teams showed interest in the summer and while I don't envision him bringing back anything more than neutral value, neutral value at a position of need is actually a good thing.
(03-17-2022, 07:12 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]You and FGump have done an excellent job answering the question IGT keeps raising. Multiple teams showed interest in the summer and while I don't envision him bringing back anything more than neutral value, neutral value at a position of need is actually a good thing.
Except everyone is still ignoring the 6 years of inefficient chucking he did before this year. It’s not about half a season. It’s about the question of is he the guy with a long and large contract that is who he was for 6.5 years, or the guy who he was for 2? The guy for 6.5 years was and is overpaid. The guy for 2 felt starter minute security which the new team would have to think is that kind of fit.
The 2 teams with interest last offseason were not playoff teams that omahen described either.
(03-17-2022, 02:41 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]
So he's a scorer like KP on a smaller scale. So take the KP trade, scale it down, and that is what you should expect. Remember your valuation of SD and DB before the last 11 games SD has played.
That's not a bad comparison. The difference between THJ and KP is that THJ does not have the significant injury concerns (foot not withstanding).
My valuation of SD was that he was a good player but thought he would be a poor fit, both on and off the court. I look to be completely and totally wrong on both fronts. Wont be the last time.
(03-17-2022, 09:20 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]The 2 teams with interest last offseason were not playoff teams that omahen described either.
In my opinion it is a big difference if a rebuilding team is signing a vet in FA, getting him without paying assets. See Olynik to Detroit and similar. Even rebuilding teams have to spend their cap space. If the vet plays well they can sell him for assets needed for the rebuild. Trading for a vet makes zero sense for them, unless you are paying assets. They are in the asset accumulating business, not asset spending business. Player like THJ will not change the trajectory of a franchise like Detroit given where in the rebuild process they are.
Besides, New Orleans who was reportedly interested in signing THJ does not consider themselves as a rebuilding team. They want to contend. They are just not good at it. Sort of like Sacramento, Minnesota and similar examples.