(06-17-2022, 10:27 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Something that came up on the big Mav's Moneyball 2+hour podcast-palouzza was the idea of when to pull off "THE" trade. Many here think that can't happen until after the 2023 draft. So, that line of thinking is Wood is a low risk swing that may or may not work. If it does, great, but the real show is a year away. IF it doesn't work, Dallas is still an upper level playoff team (even if they don't go as far as 2022), but the real show is a year away.
My question is whether the team needs to be "patient" for a year or make an effort to go for "THE" trade right now. Grant's two way game seems like it'd be a very nice fit. We don't need a dominant scorer like a Beal or LaVine next to Luka. We need someone who CAN score, but also defends. I have no idea if the deal requires one or two picks, but I'd lean toward the bird in hand now.
On a different topic, with the Dragic mention, I'll bring up a bit of unpleasantness. On Wednesday night I wrote that this deal is still open and can be added to without aggregation concerns. Our outgoing salary match is still the four players, not Wood. By now, everyone knows the earliest the deal can be done is after the first round on 6/23. But, it doesn't HAVE to be completed that night. It doesn't HAVE to be completed by the end of this NBA season. It could be held over until after 7/1.
For those who are dead sure Brunson is returning, you want to hear that announcement on 6/23. My fear, if they hold it over, is they don't know what Brunson will do and $12mm of outgoing in July would make it MUCH easier to facilitate a S&T. Suddenly Brunson to NY at $25mm is his $12.5mm BYC outgoing number plus $12mm for the four Amigos times 125% minus the $14.3mm incoming for Wood or $16.4mm. NY can send out at little as $19.9mm to facilitate Brunson at $25mm. Those numbers don't cross, but NY has all sorts of ways to move $3.5mm to a third team. I don't think we are out of the "Woods" yet on Brunson. In fact, if Grant is in play and Dallas wants to make another big splash, some of the Brunson return could go to Detroit (which suddenly makes sense of the Dragic rumor).
I love this line of thinking! Outside the box!
(06-17-2022, 10:27 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Something that came up on the big Mav's Moneyball 2+hour podcast-palouzza was the idea of when to pull off "THE" trade. Many here think that can't happen until after the 2023 draft. So, that line of thinking is Wood is a low risk swing that may or may not work. If it does, great, but the real show is a year away. IF it doesn't work, Dallas is still an upper level playoff team (even if they don't go as far as 2022), but the real show is a year away.
My question is whether the team needs to be "patient" for a year or make an effort to go for "THE" trade right now. Grant's two way game seems like it'd be a very nice fit. We don't need a dominant scorer like a Beal or LaVine next to Luka. We need someone who CAN score, but also defends. I have no idea if the deal requires one or two picks, but I'd lean toward the bird in hand now.
On a different topic, with the Dragic mention, I'll bring up a bit of unpleasantness. On Wednesday night I wrote that this deal is still open and can be added to without aggregation concerns. Our outgoing salary match is still the four players, not Wood. By now, everyone knows the earliest the deal can be done is after the first round on 6/23. But, it doesn't HAVE to be completed that night. It doesn't HAVE to be completed by the end of this NBA season. It could be held over until after 7/1.
For those who are dead sure Brunson is returning, you want to hear that announcement on 6/23. My fear, if they hold it over, is they don't know what Brunson will do and $12mm of outgoing in July would make it MUCH easier to facilitate a S&T. Suddenly Brunson to NY at $25mm is his $12.5mm BYC outgoing number plus $12mm for the four Amigos times 125% minus the $14.3mm incoming for Wood or $16.4mm. NY can send out at little as $19.9mm to facilitate Brunson at $25mm. Those numbers don't cross, but NY has all sorts of ways to move $3.5mm to a third team. I don't think we are out of the "Woods" yet on Brunson. In fact, if Grant is in play and Dallas wants to make another big splash, some of the Brunson return could go to Detroit (which suddenly makes sense of the Dragic rumor).
I feel like half of your posts now are trying to trade Brunson lol
(06-17-2022, 10:35 AM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]I feel like half of your posts now are trying to trade Brunson lol
Just trying to keep the possibilities front and center until it is no longer an issue.
(06-17-2022, 10:27 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Something that came up on the big Mav's Moneyball 2+hour podcast-palouzza was the idea of when to pull off "THE" trade. Many here think that can't happen until after the 2023 draft. So, that line of thinking is Wood is a low risk swing that may or may not work. If it does, great, but the real show is a year away. IF it doesn't work, Dallas is still an upper level playoff team (even if they don't go as far as 2022), but the real show is a year away.
My question is whether the team needs to be "patient" for a year or make an effort to go for "THE" trade right now. Grant's two way game seems like it'd be a very nice fit. We don't need a dominant scorer like a Beal or LaVine next to Luka. We need someone who CAN score, but also defends. I have no idea if the deal requires one or two picks, but I'd lean toward the bird in hand now.
On a different topic, with the Dragic mention, I'll bring up a bit of unpleasantness. On Wednesday night I wrote that this deal is still open and can be added to without aggregation concerns. Our outgoing salary match is still the four players, not Wood. By now, everyone knows the earliest the deal can be done is after the first round on 6/23. But, it doesn't HAVE to be completed that night. It doesn't HAVE to be completed by the end of this NBA season. It could be held over until after 7/1.
For those who are dead sure Brunson is returning, you want to hear that announcement on 6/23. My fear, if they hold it over, is they don't know what Brunson will do and $12mm of outgoing in July would make it MUCH easier to facilitate a S&T. Suddenly Brunson to NY at $25mm is his $12.5mm BYC outgoing number plus $12mm for the four Amigos times 125% minus the $14.3mm incoming for Wood or $16.4mm. NY can send out at little as $19.9mm to facilitate Brunson at $25mm. Those numbers don't cross, but NY has all sorts of ways to move $3.5mm to a third team. I don't think we are out of the "Woods" yet on Brunson. In fact, if Grant is in play and Dallas wants to make another big splash, some of the Brunson return could go to Detroit (which suddenly makes sense of the Dragic rumor).
I love your posts but man this is almost worst case scenario type stuff for me. Give me Brunson 10 times out of 10 over Grant... much less giving up future assets to get worse. One mans opinion.
(06-17-2022, 10:27 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Something that came up on the big Mav's Moneyball 2+hour podcast-palouzza was the idea of when to pull off "THE" trade. Many here think that can't happen until after the 2023 draft. So, that line of thinking is Wood is a low risk swing that may or may not work. If it does, great, but the real show is a year away. IF it doesn't work, Dallas is still an upper level playoff team (even if they don't go as far as 2022), but the real show is a year away.
My question is whether the team needs to be "patient" for a year or make an effort to go for "THE" trade right now. Grant's two way game seems like it'd be a very nice fit. We don't need a dominant scorer like a Beal or LaVine next to Luka. We need someone who CAN score, but also defends. I have no idea if the deal requires one or two picks, but I'd lean toward the bird in hand now.
On a different topic, with the Dragic mention, I'll bring up a bit of unpleasantness. On Wednesday night I wrote that this deal is still open and can be added to without aggregation concerns. Our outgoing salary match is still the four players, not Wood. By now, everyone knows the earliest the deal can be done is after the first round on 6/23. But, it doesn't HAVE to be completed that night. It doesn't HAVE to be completed by the end of this NBA season. It could be held over until after 7/1.
For those who are dead sure Brunson is returning, you want to hear that announcement on 6/23. My fear, if they hold it over, is they don't know what Brunson will do and $12mm of outgoing in July would make it MUCH easier to facilitate a S&T. Suddenly Brunson to NY at $25mm is his $12.5mm BYC outgoing number plus $12mm for the four Amigos times 125% minus the $14.3mm incoming for Wood or $16.4mm. NY can send out at little as $19.9mm to facilitate Brunson at $25mm. Those numbers don't cross, but NY has all sorts of ways to move $3.5mm to a third team. I don't think we are out of the "Woods" yet on Brunson. In fact, if Grant is in play and Dallas wants to make another big splash, some of the Brunson return could go to Detroit (which suddenly makes sense of the Dragic rumor).
I would not have a problem making "the move" this offseason if its there to be had, but to me Grant is not that guy. He is a good player, and would be a better fit than Timmy, but I feel like his offense is a bit of empty stats on a bad team, and his defense is not as good as the idea of his defense. He is versatile and can guard multiple positions, but I don't think he is much better than average as a defender. He is not a guy I want to go all in on.
(06-17-2022, 09:17 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]They're almost out of the woods on the Porzingis mistake. One more year and they'll have picks to offer (or use) along with some player assets that will hopefully have gained in value. I'm generally not excited about the idea of them promising future picks for some non-star that would extend this situation, even for a player I really like.
I think that is the main philosophical question. Does Mavs with the Doncic lead offense (and Brunson as second scorer) really need and can really integrate another "star". With a star being a player that demands the ball. Or is it more that we need high level role players, that are not really stars. Doncic and four guys that are treated more or less equally as the numbers of offensive opportunities they get. For example - are JRue and Middleton stars? Would they flourish as first options on any team? I don't think so. Was Jrue worth all those picks for Milwaukee? Absolutely.
In this light Grant certainly fits the description of a high end role player and fills the one crucial need the team has - big wing. So if one believes he is the one missing piece to lift this team to true contender status, I don't really care if his price is 2 FRP (without any other important rotation player going out). I go for it and try to win it all. Of course I can't judge about Grant wanting to be featured. Featured Grant does not fit on a contender - high level role player Grant fits a lot.
Perhaps if we look another way. I think line-up of Luka-Brunson-DFS-Bullock-Wood is not good enough to win it all, whoever we put on the bench behind them. So one of them needs to be replaced with another player coming in. Assuming Wood works out decently, our key pieces for next couple of years are Luka, Brunson, DFS and Wood, while Bullock can work perfectly from bench with Maxi, Powell and 6th man (lets say this is SD). Even if Brunson is the one going out, the big wing remains the true need for optimal roster construction, imho. So which player in the league would fit in that fourth roster spot perfectly, if there are no limitations? Everything else would require a much bigger overhaul of the roster.
My list of ideal 5th guy (big wing) to our core:
- Giannis
- Durant
- Kawhi
- LeBron
- Tatum
- JJJ
- Siakam
- S.Barnes
- Grant
- Hunter
- Aaron Gordon
- Harris
- Barnes
- Draymond Green
- RoCo
- Morris
So, how realistic it is we ever get one of the guys that are better than Grant?
Hollinger on his center rankings says Hartenstein is a candidate for the fully non taxpayer mid level exception after his breakout year. He thinks the best bet for the Clippers is to offer him a one year deal for taxpayer MLE with a second year player option that will allow them to pay him on a longer deal next summer. Although he thinks they will have competition from teams using the full MLE for him.
Others:
Has Nurkic pretty highly rated- 17 million in his formula (note the formula tends to be off on a lot of guys who signs contracts)
Bamba's value is 6.8 Million. Hollinger thinks it is doubtful Orlando extends him a 10.1 qualifying offer. He thinks Bamba will be a popular target for the full MLE or tax MLE.
Nic Claxton value is 2.9 million
Hassan Whiteside- 33 years old...probably looking for another 1 year deal at minimum
Javale McGee- Suns can go up to 6 million for him but doubt they will
Thomas Bryant- May be a good buy low candidate. He plays hard and can shoot, but athletic limitations are real and he is probably a backup. Rebuilding teams should look at him
Nathan Knight- (My note--I liked him when we played Minny last year). He is restricted, but Hollinger says to keep an eye on him as he could be a potential poach.
Nurkic and Robinson are both valued high.
Chris Boucher value is 19 million. He thinks due to age and build he will wind up just above the non taxpayer MLE.
Anyway, it doesn't appear we are focusing on a veteran big. But these are some names we have talked about some.
(06-17-2022, 09:45 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]This isn't directed at you....but
Brunson's length on defense will always be an issue...especially in today's game. But I believe his strengths on defense are always glossed over. He doesn't make many mistakes on rotation and is typically in the right spot. Plus, taking charges is tough work and he is one of the better ones at doing so. Not having caution throwing your body in front of trains going down hill is not for everyone. Both of those things are important and are two pluses coaches value.
I don't disagree with any of that. He does what he can to mitigate his size limitations. I have a real hard time seeing him ever become a plus defender though, and the prevailing thought is that ideally we need a strong defender as Luka's backcourt mate. I think when folks talk about Brunson defense its as much about Luka's defense.
(06-17-2022, 10:51 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think that is the main philosophical question. Does Mavs with the Doncic lead offense (and Brunson as second scorer) really need and can really integrate another "star". With a star being a player that demands the ball. Or is it more that we need high level role players, that are not really stars. Doncic and four guys that are treated more or less equally as the numbers of offensive opportunities they get. For example - are JRue and Middleton stars? Would they flourish as first options on any team? I don't think so. Was Jrue worth all those picks for Milwaukee? Absolutely.
In this light Grant certainly fits the description of a high end role player and fills the one crucial need the team has - big wing. So if one believes he is the one missing piece to lift this team to true contender status, I don't really care if his price is 2 FRP (without any other important rotation player going out). I go for it and try to win it all. Of course I can't judge about Grant wanting to be featured. Featured Grant does not fit on a contender - high level role player Grant fits a lot.
Perhaps if we look another way. I think line-up of Luka-Brunson-DFS-Bullock-Wood is not good enough to win it all, whoever we put on the bench behind them. So one of them needs to be replaced with another player coming in. Assuming Wood works out decently, our key pieces for next couple of years are Luka, Brunson, DFS and Wood, while Bullock can work perfectly from bench with Maxi, Powell and 6th man (lets say this is SD). Even if Brunson is the one going out, the big wing remains the true need for optimal roster construction, imho. So which player in the league would fit in that fourth roster spot perfectly, if there are no limitations? Everything else would require a much bigger overhaul of the roster.
My list of ideal 5th guy (big wing) to our core:
- Giannis
- Durant
- Kawhi
- LeBron
- Tatum
- JJJ
- Siakam
- S.Barnes
- Grant
- Hunter
- Aaron Gordon
- Harris
- Barnes
- Draymond Green
- RoCo
- Morris
So, how realistic it is we ever get one of the guys that are better than Grant?
Better? Or a better fit? The later is like 100%
You are perfectly describing a we have a Jordan and need a Pippen situation. And I wholeheartly agree.
We need a star who is fine with being a roleplayer, Grant is a roleplayer who thinks he is a star.
(06-17-2022, 10:51 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think that is the main philosophical question. Does Mavs with the Doncic lead offense (and Brunson as second scorer) really need and can really integrate another "star". With a star being a player that demands the ball. Or is it more that we need high level role players, that are not really stars. Doncic and four guys that are treated more or less equally as the numbers of offensive opportunities they get. For example - are JRue and Middleton stars? Would they flourish as first options on any team? I don't think so. Was Jrue worth all those picks for Milwaukee? Absolutely.
In this light Grant certainly fits the description of a high end role player and fills the one crucial need the team has - big wing. So if one believes he is the one missing piece to lift this team to true contender status, I don't really care if his price is 2 FRP (without any other important rotation player going out). I go for it and try to win it all. Of course I can't judge about Grant wanting to be featured. Featured Grant does not fit on a contender - high level role player Grant fits a lot.
Perhaps if we look another way. I think line-up of Luka-Brunson-DFS-Bullock-Wood is not good enough to win it all, whoever we put on the bench behind them. So one of them needs to be replaced with another player coming in. Assuming Wood works out decently, our key pieces for next couple of years are Luka, Brunson, DFS and Wood, while Bullock can work perfectly from bench with Maxi, Powell and 6th man (lets say this is SD). Even if Brunson is the one going out, the big wing remains the true need for optimal roster construction, imho. So which player in the league would fit in that fourth roster spot perfectly, if there are no limitations? Everything else would require a much bigger overhaul of the roster.
My list of ideal 5th guy (big wing) to our core:
- Giannis
- Durant
- Kawhi
- LeBron
- Tatum
- JJJ
- Siakam
- S.Barnes
- Grant
- Hunter
- Aaron Gordon
- Harris
- Barnes
- Draymond Green
- RoCo
- Morris
So, how realistic it is we ever get one of the guys that are better than Grant?
Ya, this is a pretty good way to look at it. I think in terms of on court impact, Luka/JB vs Luka/SD in a starting role (if JB decides to go elsewhere, let’s not lose sight of JB HAS to sign here even if he is not “the guy”), the drop off is really not that big if there is one at all. The drop off comes when you add Dragic instead of SD on the bench as the 3rd guy. How big of a drop off though? Sometimes big, other times none at all, I would contend. We also should get a vet min/development 4th guy in that scenario, we still have the roster spots to do that.
In that sense, does Toppin enter your radar on that list somewhere? Young promising bigger body wing. Might be able to man the 5 spot in a “smallball” set. I could see that as a possibility where we need a 3rd team to help facilitate. Toppin and our 23 back is a decent snt return, maybe we can extract more?
(06-17-2022, 11:11 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]In that sense, does Toppin enter your radar on that list somewhere?
I don't think he is good enough defensively.
Obviously Grant felt he was getting shortchanged in Denver and wanted an opportunity to prove himself as a star. My question would be how does he feel now, after two losing seasons in Detroit? The ideal Jerami Grant would be someone willing to accept a Denver-type role again but also able to use his scoring skills opportunistically.
(06-17-2022, 11:11 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]The drop off comes when you add Dragic instead of SD on the bench as the 3rd guy. How big of a drop off though?
At this stage of his career, I don't think Dragic can play 25-30 minutes per night for a contender. I am with you on ideal role for him as fourth creator. Mavs desperately need three creators as shown when they added SD. Losing Brunson would create a big hole in that department and a serious player to fill it. If you bring another guard creator who also plays capable defense (expensive), you still need the big wing.
(06-17-2022, 10:42 AM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]I love your posts but man this is almost worst case scenario type stuff for me. Give me Brunson 10 times out of 10 over Grant... much less giving up future assets to get worse. One mans opinion.
I think it isn't as clear cut as that. Here are two lineups if all we get out of NY is Burks and enough to swap THJ for Grant. Which lineup (at both ends of the floor) is better?
Wood Wood
DFS Grant
Bullock DFS
Brunson Burks
Luka Luka
and the backups
Powell Powell
Maxi Maxi
THJ Bullock
Green Green
SD SD
One of the luxuries Wood provides is dramatically improved O. That means the O we get from Brunson isn't as necessary. Grant also creates offense, but is a much better defender than Brunson. That slots either Burks or Bullock into the starting two slot (probably Burks) and you have a really good O and no obvious holes in the D with Brunson and THJ gone.
(06-17-2022, 11:22 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I think it isn't as clear cut as that. Here are two lineups if all we get out of NY is Burks and enough to swap THJ for Grant. Which lineup (at both ends of the floor) is better?
Wood Wood
DFS Grant
Bullock DFS
Brunson Burks
Luka Luka
and the backups
Powell Powell
Maxi Maxi
THJ Bullock
Green Green
SD SD
One of the luxuries Wood provides is dramatically improved O. That means the O we get from Brunson isn't as necessary. Grant also creates offense, but is a much better defender than Brunson. That slots either Burks or Bullock into the starting two slot (probably Burks) and you have a really good O and no obvious holes in the D with Brunson and THJ gone.
And you still haven’t fully added that this is all predicated on JB choosing NY. That’s what I don’t get with some of these comments. They fully ignore the premise that is still very real!
(06-17-2022, 10:51 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think that is the main philosophical question. Does Mavs with the Doncic lead offense (and Brunson as second scorer) really need and can really integrate another "star". With a star being a player that demands the ball. Or is it more that we need high level role players, that are not really stars. Doncic and four guys that are treated more or less equally as the numbers of offensive opportunities they get. For example - are JRue and Middleton stars? Would they flourish as first options on any team? I don't think so. Was Jrue worth all those picks for Milwaukee? Absolutely.
In this light Grant certainly fits the description of a high end role player and fills the one crucial need the team has - big wing. So if one believes he is the one missing piece to lift this team to true contender status, I don't really care if his price is 2 FRP (without any other important rotation player going out). I go for it and try to win it all. Of course I can't judge about Grant wanting to be featured. Featured Grant does not fit on a contender - high level role player Grant fits a lot.
Perhaps if we look another way. I think line-up of Luka-Brunson-DFS-Bullock-Wood is not good enough to win it all, whoever we put on the bench behind them. So one of them needs to be replaced with another player coming in. Assuming Wood works out decently, our key pieces for next couple of years are Luka, Brunson, DFS and Wood, while Bullock can work perfectly from bench with Maxi, Powell and 6th man (lets say this is SD). Even if Brunson is the one going out, the big wing remains the true need for optimal roster construction, imho. So which player in the league would fit in that fourth roster spot perfectly, if there are no limitations? Everything else would require a much bigger overhaul of the roster.
My list of ideal 5th guy (big wing) to our core:
- Giannis
- Durant
- Kawhi
- LeBron
- Tatum
- JJJ
- Siakam
- S.Barnes
- Grant
- Hunter
- Aaron Gordon
- Harris
- Barnes
- Draymond Green
- RoCo
- Morris
So, how realistic it is we ever get one of the guys that are better than Grant?
We are replacing Bullock in the starting lineup, so I don't think it needs to be a big wing (although that is probably preferable). Some other guys I would have ahead of Grant:
Jrue
Middleton
George
Brown
Fred (awkward fit with Brunson, but perfect fit with Luka)
Smart
Bane (ouch)
Mikal Bridges
Miles Bridges
Edwards
Ingram
Wiggins
Mobley
Anunoby
Wagner
Thats a lot of guys, a lot of them significantly better than Grant or younger. Including your list that is over 20 guys. A lot of them will not be available, but a couple should be. This list could also grow with young guys taking a big step this coming season.
(06-17-2022, 11:22 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I think it isn't as clear cut as that. Here are two lineups if all we get out of NY is Burks and enough to swap THJ for Grant. Which lineup (at both ends of the floor) is better?
Wood Wood
DFS Grant
Bullock DFS
Brunson Burks
Luka Luka
and the backups
Powell Powell
Maxi Maxi
THJ Bullock
Green Green
SD SD
One of the luxuries Wood provides is dramatically improved O. That means the O we get from Brunson isn't as necessary. Grant also creates offense, but is a much better defender than Brunson. That slots either Burks or Bullock into the starting two slot (probably Burks) and you have a really good O and no obvious holes in the D with Brunson and THJ gone.
If Brunson
chose to play for his dad, then I'd like that proposal. You've shown a creative way to minimize the loss of JB.
If the
Mavs choose not to sign Brunson at the number the Knicks are willing to go to and that's what causes the SnT then I have a very different opinion/feeling.
(06-17-2022, 11:27 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]And you still haven’t fully added that this is all predicated on JB choosing NY. That’s what I don’t get with some of these comments. They fully ignore the premise that is still very real!
I see it differently. I think I'm the only one who isn't fully ignoring the possibility Brunson doesn't work out the way everyone thinks it will. Nothing that happened Wednesday changes that possibility.