(07-26-2021, 11:51 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think you are looking at this right. Lowry is a UFA. We can sign him outright (don't need to trade KP). If we decide to do a S&T for KP, that will not be for Lowry, it will be for cap space. The recent proposal floating around (I might be the one who floated it) is to sign Holmes and Powell with that cap space. So a better way to look at the KP trade is KP/JRich for Holmes/Powell. You did not trade him for a young #2 (those guys are going for massive hauls that we don't have) but you did trade him for a young defensive anchor and a potential #3. I think most people around here would pull that trigger, if for no other reason to move on from the KP health uncertainty.
Actually I was responding to another poster's suggestion.
(07-26-2021, 01:39 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Not a general point against analysts. I just don´t like Hollinger´s approach. PER is super flawed (if you look into it you can take a look at the takes of other analysts and their case about usage vs efficiency vs PER). This one as well. Cannot predict 17m for a player that ends up signing the vet min and expect no criticism. There are a lot of smart guys in the business. Obviously all of them know a lot more about basketball than I ever will. Just don´t think that Hollinger is the one. He knows how to sell his stuff and market his numbers but most of them are simple boxscore based metrics. Nothing special.
Hollinger never sold this BORD metric as the one and only metric to calculate player worth.
(07-26-2021, 01:49 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Not really sure why you would have a problem with this?
Because the comment was not about players, it was about the author. I totally agree Whiteside evaluation was wrong. That doesn't say anything about Hollinger, who the comment attacked.
(07-26-2021, 01:51 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Hollinger never sold this BORD metric as the one and only metric to calculate player worth.
But he is still using the numbers the metric provides. You can be happy with them or the additional information he provides. I don´t like it. Why even use the numbers if he knows that they are completly off. I don´t think he is as good as his reputation suggests and I did my research on his formulas. A few years ago (I think 247 era) we had a long and detailed discussion about the pros and cons of different metrics...boxscore based, +/- based or catch all. I think PER is by far the worst. Especially in the way the media likes to use it. BORD$ is nothing fancy but I think it is just as flawed.
The best analysts work on NBA teams. They don´t go the reverse route and leave teams to join media outlets. Same for coaches or scouts. The best of them have a big contract in the NBA.
How does Markkanen make KP expendable? If KP is healthy, his rim protection is on another level. He's way longer it's not even close. KP has had seasons of over 2 blocks/game including his 1st here. Markkanen can barely crack .5. Even last year with his bum knees he had 1.3. It'll be a layup drill for other teams if you play Markkanen at the 5.
I've been on the Santoransky train for a couple months as a value acquisition who would be good here...
(07-26-2021, 01:47 PM)VintagePejav2 Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs are linked to Lowry. I trust Shams on player-related news with the Mavs, even beyond Stein.
We also know the Mavs want to retain THJ.
It is speculated that Lowry is looking for $30M per…
The only way I see all of this happening in Dallas is if KP is sent out for Lowry.
It would be really difficult to pull this off by trading non-KP contracts to Toronto and operating over the cap. I also don’t believe Cuban would lock into that roster and payroll construction - $60M+ for each of the next 2+ seasons for KP and KLow?
Add in the Holmes interest… there’s only one way here.
And the Oscar goes to...Jason Kidd. Sorry, I just don't see KP to, well, really anywhere. I agree the report from Shams lends credence to a return of THJ. From there, he has us as one of a kagillion suitors for Lowry and one of two for Holmes. There is also reporting that Dallas is looking to offload some salary.
I think many presume Powell would be the outgoing...probably around the draft. No one has cap room for that before August. OKC is close, but they don't have a logical returning player to pair with the space they have to match Powell. OKC does have a TPE to absorb Powell, as does Boston and Orlando. I don't see the Powell fit in Orlando. It is a stretch in Boston, but they could take Powell into their TPE and send out Thompson as a way of getting rid of a guy who doesn't want to be there. They could also "preserve" their TPE by creating a new one if they send Thompson somewhere for space. OKC isn't exactly loaded with centers after dealing for Kemba. It isn't hard to see Powell valued as a good locker room guy there as well.
BTW, at that point you can sign Holmes and Hardaway at $18mm each and have very close to the exact amount of the full MLE left in space. So, you'd be in good position to add a third good player. Or, you could send $25mm Lowry's way and pay THJ $20mm. In either case, you are adding either Holmes or Lowry to your existing Luka/KP/DFS/THJ core. That seems more likely to me than KP to Toronto.
(07-26-2021, 10:17 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]I've been on the Santoransky train for a couple months as a value acquisition who would be good here...
So, a Holmes-Hardaway-Sato summer? I can live with that.
What's the price of offloading Powell and how on earth can we afford it?
After the press conference, I don't see KP going anywhere this summer. Kidd isn't a good enough public speaker to be trying to pump up a trade value. KP is probably a huge reason for the MBT shakeup and I'm sure one of Cubes mandates for his new hires was to try and right that ship.
How much is renewing the Boston TPE worth??
Dallas trades Powell to Boston for a 2nd
Boston trades Thompson Dallas for a 2nd/tip
It would definitely lower the cost of dumping that contract when the time comes... and frees up around $2 million if you are counting dollars to donuts
(07-26-2021, 11:37 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]How much is renewing the Boston TPE worth??
Dallas trades Powell to Boston for a 2nd
Boston trades Thompson Dallas for a 2nd/tip
It would definitely lower the cost of dumping that contract when the time comes... and frees up around $2 million if you are counting dollars to donuts
Full points given for creativity, only I'd personally just rather keep Powell. I get that $2 million can potentially be a big deal, but...
Just say no to Kardashians.
(07-26-2021, 11:15 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]And the Oscar goes to...Jason Kidd. Sorry, I just don't see KP to, well, really anywhere. I agree the report from Shams lends credence to a return of THJ. From there, he has us as one of a kagillion suitors for Lowry and one of two for Holmes. There is also reporting that Dallas is looking to offload some salary.
I think many presume Powell would be the outgoing...probably around the draft. No one has cap room for that before August. OKC is close, but they don't have a logical returning player to pair with the space they have to match Powell. OKC does have a TPE to absorb Powell, as does Boston and Orlando. I don't see the Powell fit in Orlando. It is a stretch in Boston, but they could take Powell into their TPE and send out Thompson as a way of getting rid of a guy who doesn't want to be there. They could also "preserve" their TPE by creating a new one if they send Thompson somewhere for space. OKC isn't exactly loaded with centers after dealing for Kemba. It isn't hard to see Powell valued as a good locker room guy there as well.
BTW, at that point you can sign Holmes and Hardaway at $18mm each and have very close to the exact amount of the full MLE left in space. So, you'd be in good position to add a third good player. Or, you could send $25mm Lowry's way and pay THJ $20mm. In either case, you are adding either Holmes or Lowry to your existing Luka/KP/DFS/THJ core. That seems more likely to me than KP to Toronto.
I think you are right on this. I must admit that it is more that I *want* pouting Porzingis gone than it is an actual belief that it will happen.
The approach you described above I think is the likely (and non-creative - typical post-2011 Mavs) path towards adjusting the roster in free agency. I think they’ll lose out on Lowry (New Orleans), Conley (Utah), and Holmes (Charlotte) because they’ll be outbid. I think Hardaway will be pricier than $18M and they’ll be settling for a couple of mid-tier guys like Dragic and Noel or O. Porter.
(07-26-2021, 11:15 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]And the Oscar goes to...Jason Kidd. Sorry, I just don't see KP to, well, really anywhere. I agree the report from Shams lends credence to a return of THJ. From there, he has us as one of a kagillion suitors for Lowry and one of two for Holmes. There is also reporting that Dallas is looking to offload some salary.
I think many presume Powell would be the outgoing...probably around the draft. No one has cap room for that before August. OKC is close, but they don't have a logical returning player to pair with the space they have to match Powell. OKC does have a TPE to absorb Powell, as does Boston and Orlando. I don't see the Powell fit in Orlando. It is a stretch in Boston, but they could take Powell into their TPE and send out Thompson as a way of getting rid of a guy who doesn't want to be there. They could also "preserve" their TPE by creating a new one if they send Thompson somewhere for space. OKC isn't exactly loaded with centers after dealing for Kemba. It isn't hard to see Powell valued as a good locker room guy there as well.
BTW, at that point you can sign Holmes and Hardaway at $18mm each and have very close to the exact amount of the full MLE left in space. So, you'd be in good position to add a third good player. Or, you could send $25mm Lowry's way and pay THJ $20mm. In either case, you are adding either Holmes or Lowry to your existing Luka/KP/DFS/THJ core. That seems more likely to me than KP to Toronto.
If we pay 18-20 mil for THJ while operating under the cap, it will be a complete failure. Honestly its hard to see any under the cap scenario where I would not be disappointed with THJ. It's also hard to see any good over the cap scenario where we keep both KP and THJ.
![[Image: tenor.gif]](https://media.tenor.com/images/a8fd512e2e67c3d0bd09f2a8f2f45122/tenor.gif)