MavsBoard

(02-04-2022, 10:41 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think you would need to add a lot of firsts (that we don't have) to that package.  You would be better off trading Brunson for our pick in order to back the truck up.  I don't see us being competitive in a Lillard sweepstakes.

I don´t. Lillard is 31, making 45M a year and injured stomach muscles can be a real b*tch. I´d actually be concerned that he´ll never be the same, but I have no interest in sideways moves like McCollum. McCollum is a 30 year old 6´1 guard that plays no defense. He makes us 10% on the floor, but actually decreases our trade asset stock compared to Brunson on a reasonable deal.

I´d rather make sideways roster moves that significantly improve our cap structure and asset stock, over 5-10% roster improvements (on paper) that kill our roster flexibility further. That´s what we have been doing for a decade.

(02-04-2022, 03:16 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]I don´t. Lillard is 31, making 45M a year and injured stomach muscles can be a real b*tch. I´d actually be concerned that he´ll never be the same, but I have no interest in sideways moves like McCollum. McCollum is a 30 year old 6´1 guard that plays no defense. He makes us 10% on the floor, but actually decreases our trade asset stock compared to Brunson on a reasonable deal.

I´d rather make sideways roster moves that significantly improve our cap structure and asset stock, over 5-10% roster improvements (on paper) that kill our roster flexibility further. That´s what we have been doing for a decade.

I just hope (without much confidence) that this Andrew Baker the Mavs hired can help the Mavs front office.  He apparently did wonders with the Nets.

This is also getting old. Every year Mavs media is sending messages like this. When Mavs finally don't do anything (again), the messages switch to "it was better to stand pat". 

(7) Chuck Cooperstein on Twitter: "A reminder to Mavs fans before jumping off the bridge at the mere thought of them not being involved in any trade that's announced: The trade deadline is 2 PM next Thursday. Six days to go" / Twitter

Listen each time they twiddle their thumbs the more dumb they look. It's quite astonishing how mismanaged this team is. I hope Nico proves me wrong but I don't have hope.

(02-04-2022, 03:16 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]I don´t. Lillard is 31, making 45M a year and injured stomach muscles can be a real b*tch. I´d actually be concerned that he´ll never be the same, but I have no interest in sideways moves like McCollum. McCollum is a 30 year old 6´1 guard that plays no defense. He makes us 10% on the floor, but actually decreases our trade asset stock compared to Brunson on a reasonable deal.

I´d rather make sideways roster moves that significantly improve our cap structure and asset stock, over 5-10% roster improvements (on paper) that kill our roster flexibility further. That´s what we have been doing for a decade.

I mean comparing CJ to Brunson from an asset standpoint does not really make sense.  You are not trading Brunson for him.  

They way to look at it is KP + Brunson for CJ + Robinson + our pick.  That is a downgrade in talent in age, but probably a better fit.  More importantly that pick gets you access to all of your assets.

(02-04-2022, 07:17 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]They way to look at it is KP + Brunson for CJ + Robinson + our pick. 

Would you do THJ, Powell, Brunson for CJ+Robinson with the pick going to Portland? You keep KP, but don't get the full flexibility. Better short term, who knows long term.

(02-04-2022, 07:32 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Would you do THJ, Powell, Brunson for CJ+Robinson with the pick going to Portland? You keep KP, but don't get the full flexibility. Better short term, who knows long term.

We could keep the '23 and send the '22 pick to help our flexibility and POR gets and immediate prospect.

(02-04-2022, 07:17 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I mean comparing CJ to Brunson from an asset standpoint does not really make sense.  You are not trading Brunson for him.  

They way to look at it is KP + Brunson for CJ + Robinson + our pick.  That is a downgrade in talent in age, but probably a better fit.  More importantly that pick gets you access to all of your assets.

Which IMO is why its not a better fit, the age thing needs to be a real factor in decision making.

It makes no sense to trade young players for old players that may or may not fit with our personnel. 

CJ does not make us better and he is older than Brunson. There are other options out there, the 2nd creator does not have to be a scorer. 

We actually could use a guy like Sabonis who fits Luka much better and is probably the better fit given style of play.

Kamm is back!

Really nice to see Bullock play well.  I think it is pretty clear he looks much better when he is getting at least 10 shots than when he gets 3-4.  Lets see if he continues.

Both Bullock and DFS are really good 5th starters.  The question is do you want to pay both over 10 million a year?   Jalen is one of the elite 4th best players on a team imo.   The question is do you want to pay him 15-18 million per year?

But the big question is KP a second best player?  Health, fit and play are all factors in this.   Maybe he is a second best player, but maybe it just isn't here.  This is the big answer we need answered.  Maybe the Mavs already have their answer.   If it is yes, then continue to grow together.  If it is no, then we need to be patient for the right trade.

Then Lastly, the Mavs either need a second best player or third best player (and maybe both depending on KP) to be ready to compete.  The easiest route is KP is the second best player than the Mavs can use assets/picks for that third best player.    If KP is not that answer, it gets more difficult.

(02-05-2022, 10:54 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Really nice to see Bullock play well.  I think it is pretty clear he looks much better when he is getting at least 10 shots than when he gets 3-4.  Lets see if he continues.

Bullock was an excellent THJ replacement for half the money. Unfortunately they forgot the part about not re-signing THJ.

(02-05-2022, 10:54 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]But the big question is KP a second best player?  Health, fit and play are all factors in this. 

I could overlook health, if he would be the beast in remaining games. But he is not. I doubt there is anything there that would allow them to trade him and become better short term. Perhaps in his last year.

(02-05-2022, 10:54 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Really nice to see Bullock play well.  I think it is pretty clear he looks much better when he is getting at least 10 shots than when he gets 3-4.  Lets see if he continues.

Both Bullock and DFS are really good 5th starters.  The question is do you want to pay both over 10 million a year?   Jalen is one of the elite 4th best players on a team imo.   The question is do you want to pay him 15-18 million per year?

But the big question is KP a second best player?  Health, fit and play are all factors in this.   Maybe he is a second best player, but maybe it just isn't here.  This is the big answer we need answered.  Maybe the Mavs already have their answer.   If it is yes, then continue to grow together.  If it is no, then we need to be patient for the right trade.

Then Lastly, the Mavs either need a second best player or third best player (and maybe both depending on KP) to be ready to compete.  The easiest route is KP is the second best player than the Mavs can use assets/picks for that third best player.    If KP is not that answer, it gets more difficult.

Good stuff.

If you play around with metrics like LEBRON and EPM, you find that JB and DFS are in the area of the 20th best player at their position.  Maxi is toward the bottom of the top 30 (so a bad starter and excellent bench guy).  RB and THJ are similar...bad starter, excellent bench... and Powell is more of an above average bench guy by these metrics.  So in theory, when everyone is healthy, we have two top 10 starters and a bunch of 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th men.  If you could consolidate just one of those slots without giving up too much and come up with a guy in the 8-14 range at his position, it would make a huge difference.  Preferably, you'd do it like Balmer did giving up mainly financial assets.

(02-04-2022, 10:03 PM)Omega_Supreme Wrote: [ -> ]Which IMO is why its not a better fit, the age thing needs to be a real factor in decision making.

It makes no sense to trade young players for old players that may or may not fit with our personnel. 

CJ does not make us better and he is older than Brunson. There are other options out there, the 2nd creator does not have to be a scorer. 

We actually could use a guy like Sabonis who fits Luka much better and is probably the better fit given style of play.

The fit was specific to on the court.  There are lot of things this post seems to be ignoring:

Brunson has a looming huge raise coming up, might leave for nothing and has legit concerns about his play against length.

That pick is hugely valuable to the Mavs from the standpoint of unlocking access to their assets.  Brunson is probably the only avenue to that pick.

This is not a CJ for Brunson trade (see pick above).  It needs to not be looked at like that.  But regardless, CJ is probably a better fit with Luka than Brunson is.  He would be our best volume three point shooter by far, operates well in the midrange, and is a quality secondary playmaker.  He combines a lot of we are getting from THJ and Brunson only he is a better scorer than either and while they all share defensive limitations he would be only one player with that problem on the court instead of two.

Not sure why folks keep bringing up Sabonis.  He is not in the ballpark regarding cost.  We don't have the assets to get him.  I could say more about my concern for backing up the truck for a defensive limited big, but it doesn't matter.

(02-05-2022, 12:54 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Not sure why folks keep bringing up Sabonis.  He is not in the ballpark regarding cost.  We don't have the assets to get him.  I could say more about my concern for backing up the trade for a defensive limited big, but it doesn't matter.

If the rumor is to be believed that IND is looking for a Vucevic type haul, then thats a disappointing lotto prospect, salary dump, and 2 1sts.

I'll keep throwing that proposed 3-team trade with CHA and IND because the more I think about it the more it makes sense. Charlotte does it because instead of paying 2 1sts themselves for Sabonis they get KP for 1.

(02-05-2022, 11:22 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Good stuff.

If you play around with metrics like LEBRON and EPM, you find that JB and DFS are in the area of the 20th best player at their position.  Maxi is toward the bottom of the top 30 (so a bad starter and excellent bench guy).  RB and THJ are similar...bad starter, excellent bench... and Powell is more of an above average bench guy by these metrics.  So in theory, when everyone is healthy, we have two top 10 starters and a bunch of 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th men.  If you could consolidate just one of those slots without giving up too much and come up with a guy in the 8-14 range at his position, it would make a huge difference.  Preferably, you'd do it like Balmer did giving up mainly financial assets.

Over-reliance on impenetrable advanced stats. 19 teams have better players than JB and DFS at their positions? Not buying that. I’m gonna start with this: those stats can’t even tell what positions JB and DFS are playing. The complexities of basketball are still far beyond the limits of our algorithms. 

I get that I don’t have better objective info to support my position. But that doesn’t mean I have to believe yours.

From the article: "Matching salary in a deal for McCollum's $30.8 could be problematic for the Mavs. Dallas doesn't appear to have the combination of short-term salary, plus young prospects to put together a deal for McCollum. The Mavs have also been reluctant to part with either Jalen Brunson or Dorian Finney-Smith in trades before next week's deadline."

Dallas has $12.5mm in potential expiring contracts -- Maxi, Frank, and Moses (all non-guaranteed next year). THJ being hurt would help their tank and his declining deal could also be seen as a positive by a team looking for cap savings. And Dallas also has a TPE just big enough to take back Nance to save them even more.

THJ+Maxi for McCollum+Nance thus works financially, and would save Portland $23mm next year assuming they let Maxi go. As for young talent, Green and Moses could be easily tossed in as cheap assets. For a team like Portland in firesale mode, I think Dallas has more to offer than the author understands.

Now whether Dallas is willing to eat an even bigger luxury tax bill next season is another issue. But if they are, then that could be an interesting opportunistic framework to improve the team.