(04-04-2022, 02:34 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]You got me, pal.
I'm a sucker for that guy's game. I love it so much.
Everyone loves his game. Who's the next one? Is that guy available in the draft? All these guys that we LOVE, were all available at some point to draft - relatively low in the draft and likely where the Mavs could have obtained them. Every year that goes by, I am sickened by how little we yield from the draft process. UGH!
(04-04-2022, 03:10 PM)Mavsfan12 Wrote: [ -> ]Everyone loves his game. Who's the next one? Is that guy available in the draft? All these guys that we LOVE, were all available at some point to draft - relatively low in the draft and likely where the Mavs could have obtained them. Every year that goes by, I am sickened by how little we yield from the draft process. UGH!
I think you raise an interesting philosophical question about something even broader here.
During the Cuban/Donnie/Carlisle era, I'm 100% positive that starting from now, this moment, a drafted rookie would never again be looked at as an investment in the team during the rest of the Luka era, however long that lasts. Not as a solution to a rotation hole, at least. They would approach this coming summer in a "let's get some 30 year olds who know what the hell they're doing" kind of way.
Is that what we can expect from Cuban/Harrison/Kidd? I have no idea. There are pros and cons to each direction, but we just don't know what to expect, really.
My guess is that this pick gets moved in a draft night trade, along with either Hardaway, Bullock or Kleber. But, the fact that they're basically locked into a full roster (numbers wise) is a big part of why I feel that way. So, I don't know that we'll have the answer to this philosophical question even if that happens. If they take evasive action so that they
can make a pick, that should tell us quite a bit.
Gobert's average salary is $41MM and the contract runs through the 24/25 season, after which there is a PO worth $46.6M.
That's a lot of team salary to tie up in a position that can get played off the floor and who isn't even a "2nd star". IMO, there is better value in some of the other names thrown out previously.
(04-04-2022, 03:31 PM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]Gobert's average salary is $41MM and the contract runs through the 24/25 season, after which there is a PO worth $46.6M.
That's a lot of team salary to tie up in a position that can get played off the floor and who isn't even a "2nd star". IMO, there is better value in some of the other names thrown out previously.
This worry is
very legitimate, imo.
I think I'd still do it, but I'd be holding my breath for a while afterwards.
(04-04-2022, 03:33 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]This worry is very legitimate, imo.
I think I'd still do it, but I'd be holding my breath for a while afterwards.
TBH, I like the sound of Turner more. He is on the books for $18M next season, but is a UFA afterwards. Even if you went into the $20M+ to re-sign, he would still be better economically than Gobert and he fits the age timeline with Luka, Spence and JB. A little concern about durability, but if he's sharing minutes with DP, then it helps him stay healthy.
Of course, no one knows his availability right now.
This is all just hand waving anyway. Only a few people know what trades are really available. Nobody had KP going for Spence and Davis until it happened.
(04-04-2022, 03:44 PM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]TBH, I like the sound of Turner more. He is on the books for $18M next season, but is a UFA afterwards. Even if you went into the $20M+ to re-sign, he would still be better economically than Gobert and he fits the age timeline with Luka, Spence and JB. A little concern about durability, but if he's sharing minutes with DP, then it helps him stay healthy.
Of course, no one knows his availability right now.
This is all just hand waving anyway. Only a few people know what trades are really available. Nobody had KP going for Spence and Davis until it happened.
I agree with this from top to bottom.
(04-04-2022, 02:24 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]My "short list" comment is meant to describe the number of players who can be the type of switchable, quick-feet bigs who I'd judge able to do what Powell is already doing well on defense AND improve on his rim-protection/post defense, along with defensive rebounding. Obviously the list gets even shorter when you factor in what Powell gives this team on offense.
Off the top of my head, I'd say Adebayo, Williams and JJJ would all be improvements without losing much of what Powell is currently giving the team (though clearly not avaiable). It's possible that Holmes would be, too, but I'm less sure about that than most. I'm honestly not confident he's a good player, at this point, but maybe he's just having a really down year. If so, it would be a good time to target him, so I'll just watch and see what types of teams are interested this summer.
To be clear, I'm not sure anyone who fits these criteria definitively will be available, which is kind of my whole point. I'm not at all worried about upgrading Powell. Sure, it would be nice, but I don't think it's an emergency situation like many from the board seem to believe.
I can see some validity in changing course (slightly) to include one stronger, more traditional center for next season, but imho, this only makes sense if the player in question is one of the better players of that type in the league. I suppose I'd be open to Turner, Gobert or Capella to varying degrees, as I can envision ways in which what they bring to the table might offset the negatives that come with being locked into "dinosaur big" mode for portions of each game. But, a player lesser than any of those three (Baynes, Adams, etc, etc) and I think you're in a worse situation than you are right now with Powell/Kleber. And, even with a guy north of the quality line I'm arbitrarily drawing here, I think Powell/Kleber (whoever is left) is still going to be the better option in a lot of situations, so I'm not super thrilled about the idea of having to pay this hypothetical newcomer so much.
And, to be even more clear about where I stand on this, I would be FINE with an Adams/Baynes type replacing Boban. In fact, I think that should happen, but don't expect it to. But in that scenario, they'd play only slightly more than Boban does, anyway, so it's nothing to get in a huge twist over imho.
The first time I’ve seen you post about the possibility of a slight change in thinking (in terms of a big body C). Glad to see it! I myself put Turner mostly in the Adebayo list as opposed to the big body one. He has played with Sabonis for so long that I’m not fully sure he’s a banger to defend that type and I’ve been a bit concerned with him having 2 foot injuries in a row that’s taken him out for quite a bit. If healthy, I think he’s mostly a direct upgrade to Powell.
If we can’t get one of Turner or Holmes (a lesser upgrade than Turner) who I think would be excellent as a duo partner WITH Powell, I’ve said I’d be ok with a lesser big body (Drummond, Cousins, Howard and McGee are names in this group) to do EXACTLY what they’re doing now (for the most part). Start to bang with all the big bodies that start for most every other team, then sit for most the rest of the game.
We’re not a good 1st quarter team. I think this is a good portion of the reason. Those big bodies are at their freshest, ready to do the most damage then. They slow as the game goes on so it makes sense to put Powell/smallball C in and defend that slowed down big. Haven’t really thought much about minutes distribution cause that big is only in while they are effective and has a pretty short leash. That list is also Boban pay range.
When we started this back and forth, I wasn’t as clear about the specifics of this vision. As we’ve gone back and forth, it’s allowed me to do that fine tuning as I adapt to your thoughts.
(04-04-2022, 03:46 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I’ve said I’d be ok with a lesser big body (Drummond, Cousins, Howard and McGee are names in this group) to do EXACTLY what they’re doing now (for the most part). Start to bang with all the big bodies that start for most every other team, then sit for most the rest of the game.
...and this is where we diverge.
I want no part of any of those guys
as rotation players. In place of Boban, YES. That's an upgrade.
I have a feeling we're just going to disagree.
(04-04-2022, 03:48 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]...and this is where we diverge.
I want no part of any of those guys as rotation players. In place of Boban, YES. That's an upgrade.
I have a feeling we're just going to disagree.
I’m fine with that divergence and agreeing to disagree there. I think of those guys being used EXACTLY the way most bigs are used in the playoffs on teams with championship aspirations. I also don’t think Powell is all that good to start games, but catches up as the game goes on. That’s why I don’t think he’s a starter in the league until other teams put a full stop to starting big bodies.
Pennies on the dollar Centers only please. Maybe Mitchell Robinson will be inexpensive this offseason.
(04-04-2022, 03:53 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I think of those guys being used EXACTLY the way most bigs are used in the playoffs on teams with championship aspirations.
Where I differ is that I believe as each round of the playoffs pass, they are less likely to be used at all, even in the method you describe. I agree that's how they're being used in the regular season, but that hasn't been what I've witnessed in the last few post seasons so much. Let's watch this carefully this time around and revisit.
(04-04-2022, 02:24 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I can see some validity in changing course (slightly) to include one stronger, more traditional center for next season, but imho, this only makes sense if the player in question is one of the better players of that type in the league. I suppose I'd be open to Turner, Gobert or Capella to varying degrees, as I can envision ways in which what they bring to the table might offset the negatives that come with being locked into "dinosaur big" mode for portions of each game. But, a player lesser than any of those three (Baynes, Adams, etc, etc) and I think you're in a worse situation than you are right now with Powell/Kleber. And, even with a guy north of the quality line I'm arbitrarily drawing here, I think Powell/Kleber (whoever is left) is still going to be the better option in a lot of situations, so I'm not super thrilled about the idea of having to pay this hypothetical newcomer so much.
I'd prefer Hartenstein for the taxpayer MLE rather than overpaying any of those guys you listed. I think having the flexibility to run with a traditional center in certain situations would be great, but there's no reason to break the bank for someone who's going to get played off the court when it matters.
On the other hand, if the Mavs are swearing off traditional centers forever...the only names I see in this free agent class are:
Claxton - Highest upside. Restricted FA, Brooklyn won't let him go if Drummond walks.
Boucher - Might require more than the TP MLE.
Looney - Unsure of him tbh. I've seen highlights where he looks somewhat agile on the perimeter and others where he appears to be standing in mud. Not an upgrade by any means, just another guy who could spell Dwight/Maxi.
(04-04-2022, 03:48 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]...and this is where we diverge.
I want no part of any of those guys as rotation players. In place of Boban, YES. That's an upgrade.
I have a feeling we're just going to disagree.
I kind of agree. I worry that, if we're not careful, we'll end up back as we were to start the season with the "traditional" big clogging the lane and bringing help defenders against the DAL PnR.
IMO, the big has to be able to do the job DP is doing, but maybe with more force. He's an option on the play, not the focus of the play. This is Luka's team now and I doubt Kidd is going to sub-optimize again to keep a center happy.
(04-04-2022, 03:57 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]Claxton - Highest upside. Restricted FA, Brooklyn won't let him go if Drummond walks.
Boucher - Might require more than the TP MLE.
Looney - Unsure of him tbh. I've seen highlights where he looks somewhat agile on the perimeter and others where he appears to be standing in mud. Not an upgrade by any means, just another guy who could spell Dwight/Maxi.
I love all three of these names, if in fact any are gettable.
(04-04-2022, 03:48 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]...and this is where we diverge.
I want no part of any of those guys as rotation players. In place of Boban, YES. That's an upgrade. .
To me, that's the ballpark that starts to make sense, where you bring in a big-bodied 3rd-stringer that is available to bang with other big bodies, on odd occasions. But ...
1 the Mavs already have that sort (Bobi) and Kidd doesn't use him -- so is there any value in getting someone? ,,,
2 can the Mavs move Bobi - replacing him with that big body backup - without upsetting Luka's comfort zone? That could be a very real issue, and if it is, then what?
(04-04-2022, 03:55 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Pennies on the dollar Centers only please. Maybe Mitchell Robinson will be inexpensive this offseason.
Pretty sure he expects to get paid. The market would really have to dry up for that to become possible.
(04-04-2022, 03:59 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty sure he expects to get paid. The market would really have to dry up for that to become possible.
I don't think Dallas can afford him but I'm curious what he'll garner. 4/46 is probably the floor going off of the Holmes contract. And speaking of Holmes, what little we saw of him this past year was really unimpressive.
I really hope the stars align and we draft a big. Maxi and Powell will be on the last year of their contracts next season.
As F Gump points out, we are also out of roster spots. I wouldn't mind a year of McGee on the cheap but we just don't have the room on the bench.
(04-04-2022, 03:58 PM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]I worry that, if we're not careful, we'll end up back as we were to start the season with the "traditional" big clogging the lane and bringing help defenders against the DAL PnR.
I don't think there is any reason to worry. I don't think Kidd and Nico are going to head in that direction.
(04-04-2022, 03:56 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Where I differ is that I believe as each round of the playoffs pass, they are less likely to be used at all, even in the method you describe. I agree that's how they're being used in the regular season, but that hasn't been what I've witnessed in the last few post seasons so much. Let's watch this carefully this time around and revisit.
That's all they need. On those vet min salaries, they also don't command any more time. Sit them as the other big bodies sit, who cares? I just want that big body cancelled out on our side so we see no more 9 minute double doubles (which happened at the beginning of the game BTW).
In this way, I'm actually shying away from Gobert talk lately. When I watched the Utah collapse against GSW the other night, a big part of the collapse was because Green (who Gobert was guarding) would set the pick at the 3 line, Gobert played drop coverage, much like KP, and between Poole and Klay's defender, he was playing 2 on 1 at the 3 point line...and knowing the results, you know what happened there.
I've come to your side of the no big money to bigs that can't move their feet and play the switch game on defense.
Also, I think if we can put together the assets needed to get Gobert from Utah, we can do the same to get Turner from Indiana.
(04-04-2022, 03:59 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]1 the Mavs already have that sort (Bobi) and Kidd doesn't use him -- so is there any value in getting someone? ,,,
I think there is a HUGE difference between Boban and the guys I listed to target.
(04-04-2022, 04:04 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Maxi and Powell will be on the last year of their contracts next season.
And we need to start thinking about them being 31 years old at that point (edit: 32 if we resign them).