(03-07-2022, 10:14 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Speaking about distressed assets, I have revisited the Tobias Harris idea. He is way overpaid as we all know. But, he only has two seasons left - one season to try it out before he becomes a big expiring. Good part of course is also that he shouldn't cost assets, as Philly has their stars - they have to surround them with good role players. And Mavs have plenty of those.
So I would trade THJ, Maxi and Bullock for Holmes and Harris (can be two separate trades). Sacramento gets either Bullock or Maxi. Trade would be on draft night to match the salaries
Sacramento changes Holmes they don't need with a good wing (either Maxi or Bullock) that fits their needs. One could claim Holmes is worth more, but I don't think it is a FRP more. A SRP or two should not be an obstacle.
Philly gets two shooters to surround their two stars.
Mavs get a bit more top heavy while keeping all their assets. Tobias expiring deal could be very useful in 2023 when Mavs get all their assets available. They also keep 2022 pick. The price is 10 mil of additional salary.
Luka, SD
Brunson, Green
DFS, Brown
Harris, Bertans
Holmes, Powell
In my mind, either RB or MK is plenty of return value for distressed RH. Then on the other side, THJ and RB or MK is too much value for distressed TH esp when considering the money savings. We might have to give up the FRP to PHI for this, but I would suggest a deal similar to what we just did with KP. DB/THJ/FRP for TH.
Gives them 2 floor spacers for their stars to operate with. Both distressed and overpaid and neither as good on court as TH, which is why they get the FRP. Would love to come away with only giving up 2 seconds instead of the first esp since we solve our crowded roster issue with the trade, just I think that might be what it takes. TH isn’t as distressed as KP was cause he at least shows up on court.
(03-06-2022, 06:16 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not sure what this means? Holmes is a distressed asset, and THJ is a distressed asset. They potentially have roughly similar value (a little below neutral) so it might make sense. I always got the impression they wanted off Hield because of locker room/culture fit, and I think THJ has a good rep as far as that is concerned. Don't know if they would be interested, but not sure where the inconsistent logic is in thinking it would be possible?
That comment wasn't about that specific trade, it was more a throwback to the THJ conversation that was had earlier about THJ's value in trade in general. I said what I feel about THJ's value in a RH trade.
(03-06-2022, 06:32 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Maxi has taken on that role out of necessity due to how thin we now are at center. I feel like the fact that he can provide quality backup minutes at both the 4 and the 5 provides a lot of value even when adding Holmes. I would definitely prefer to have him over THJ, especially given their contracts, and don't feel like that trade would require us to make another move. A Holmes/Powell center rotation and DFS/Maxi 4 rotation make a ton of sense. I think if the THJ for Holmes was the only move we make, it would be a successfully offseason.
I'm with you that THJ for Holmes (and another player let's not forget) is a win offseason. I'm just not with you that I think that is a deal Sac entertains. I also addressed the 4/5 minutes thing when I said:
(03-06-2022, 04:16 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]On top of that, getting RH here while keeping MK with the role he has taken on since the trade, gives us 3 bigs that should see time, but only maybe about 60 mins (at most, but probably less) to split between them.
Generally curious what makes Harris such a distressed asset? 18/7 and good defense seems pretty good but I admittedly haven’t watched him at all this year. I believe PHI needs to shed salary and I’ve seen it mentioned that Harris is likely the one to be moved… is that what makes him a “distressed” asset for them?
(03-07-2022, 10:14 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Speaking about distressed assets, I have revisited the Tobias Harris idea. He is way overpaid as we all know. But, he only has two seasons left - one season to try it out before he becomes a big expiring. Good part of course is also that he shouldn't cost assets, as Philly has their stars - they have to surround them with good role players. And Mavs have plenty of those.
So I would trade THJ, Maxi and Bullock for Holmes and Harris (can be two separate trades). Sacramento gets either Bullock or Maxi. Trade would be on draft night to match the salaries
Sacramento changes Holmes they don't need with a good wing (either Maxi or Bullock) that fits their needs. One could claim Holmes is worth more, but I don't think it is a FRP more. A SRP or two should not be an obstacle.
Philly gets two shooters to surround their two stars.
Mavs get a bit more top heavy while keeping all their assets. Tobias expiring deal could be very useful in 2023 when Mavs get all their assets available. They also keep 2022 pick. The price is 10 mil of additional salary.
Luka, SD
Brunson, Green
DFS, Brown
Harris, Bertans
Holmes, Powell
I'm not sure I send out Maxi for Holmes. There are a lot of folks questioning why we even want Holmes, and looking at just this season its a valid question. I would be more willing to send out Bullock than Maxi, especially if I had faith in Green taking on more minutes.
I also struggle with Harris. I'm not sure he is any better than Brunson or Dinwiddie, and probably more of a defensive liability. I think I would rather close a game with the three PGs, DFS and Holmes. If we are sending out Powell and Bertans I might be interested.
(03-07-2022, 11:06 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]They would have to really nail that pick. Big men generally take longer to develop than other positions, they will be picking late in the draft, and they really need a starting quality big. They also have a limited history going the draft route in general and they are clearly in win now mode as well.
Given that they need a starter, have a ton of filler salaries that are expendable and a pick to trade, I see that being the most logical route, especially given this FO history.
That´s the disadvantage. Advantage is a costr controlled asset. I don´t want the Mavs to spend big money on another center. Even without KP. Would be okay with players like Holmes or Theis. Already wanted them at the deadline. Out on any solution that makes more than full MLE/current Mavs TPE money...unless it is a legit starter that can stay on the floor in all situations.
I have a positive view of Harris and would like him as a player...
That Contract however - From Dallas' perspective, Bertrans has to be outgoing and would want serious considerations from Philly for helping them out of that financial fiasco.
(03-07-2022, 11:19 AM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]Generally curious what makes Harris such a distressed asset? 18/7 and good defense seems pretty good but I admittedly haven’t watched him at all this year. I believe PHI needs to shed salary and I’ve seen it mentioned that Harris is likely the one to be moved… is that what makes him a “distressed” asset for them?
I'd say it's because he doesn't fit what they're trying to do but is paid so much that noone wants to give any value for him.
The deal I proposed might need a 3rd team that could see fit with one of the two with a tip of the FRP to push them over the top to make a deal that gives PHI the on court/win now player they want.
As I go over this, I'm already seeing where basically MK or Bullock is the equivalent of one of THJ or Bertans and a FRP, so the original deal from Omahen would be pretty sound. I guess I would just prefer giving the FRP and Bertans cause I like the roster better with that change.
(03-07-2022, 10:14 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Speaking about distressed assets, I have revisited the Tobias Harris idea. He is way overpaid as we all know. But, he only has two seasons left - one season to try it out before he becomes a big expiring. Good part of course is also that he shouldn't cost assets, as Philly has their stars - they have to surround them with good role players. And Mavs have plenty of those.
So I would trade THJ, Maxi and Bullock for Holmes and Harris (can be two separate trades). Sacramento gets either Bullock or Maxi. Trade would be on draft night to match the salaries
Sacramento changes Holmes they don't need with a good wing (either Maxi or Bullock) that fits their needs. One could claim Holmes is worth more, but I don't think it is a FRP more. A SRP or two should not be an obstacle.
Philly gets two shooters to surround their two stars.
Mavs get a bit more top heavy while keeping all their assets. Tobias expiring deal could be very useful in 2023 when Mavs get all their assets available. They also keep 2022 pick. The price is 10 mil of additional salary.
Luka, SD
Brunson, SD
DFS, Green
Harris, Bertans
Holmes, Powell
This seems like a reasonable outcome for all involved. I have no idea who would need to add/receive picks, but the core of the deal makes sense. I fixed the depth chart as I believe SD will back up both PG and SG and Green will be behind the starting SF as he is. The only real question I have is whether the team believes DFS is better as a four or a three. If a three or an either, great. If they think he’s better as a four, then you probably have to look at Grant based deals rather than Harris based deals.
The extra salary is a problem, but as you point out, you are getting out from under some longer term THJ money. I suspect people here (and the team) might rather send out Bertans, but I have a hard time picturing his reputation rehab occurring that quickly.
(03-07-2022, 11:32 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]The extra salary is a problem, but as you point out, you are getting out from under some longer term THJ money. I suspect people here (and the team) might rather send out Bertans, but I have a hard time picturing his reputation rehab occurring that quickly.
Bertans is way overpaid. But it is nice to have a machine gun shooter from the bench. Since THJ has more value and is playing where Mavs have a lot of depth, he is the logical one to go. I would be reluctant to sacrifice all of the elite shooting though. I think Mavs can afford to lose Bullock (Green and Harris would take his minutes) and Maxi (Harris would take his minutes).
(03-07-2022, 11:32 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I fixed the depth chart as I believe SD will back up both PG and SG and Green will be behind the starting SF as he is.
Naturally most of the minutes on back-up positions 1-3 would be taken by SD and Green. Brown is there only in case one of them gets injured.
(03-07-2022, 11:24 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not sure he is any better than Brunson or Dinwiddie, and probably more of a defensive liability.
I don't get the comparison. Harris is playing a totally different solution and he would have basically zero effect on them. He should be compared to Maxi, not those two guys.
(03-07-2022, 11:19 AM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]Generally curious what makes Harris such a distressed asset? 18/7 and good defense seems pretty good
He is pretty good, that is why I would consider trading for him. But he is way overpaid. 18/7 guy should be paid something like 20 mil per season, not 40 mil.
There could be something along the lines of a draft night trade that sends:
Bertrans, Maxi and Frank to Philly
Brown to Sacto
Holmes and Harris to Dallas
IF I am Dallas, I'd like to know that Philly is primarily dumping salary and have it worked out so Maxi would become available once Philly releases him (non-guaranteed). It would be a hit to Maxi (reset Bird Rights and Dallas only having the TMLE to get him back).
(03-07-2022, 08:05 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Serious question...who do you like for the starting C role. In general, the shot blockers out there aren't mobile. The mobile centers aren't shot blockers. Do we run it back with Powell/Maxi? If not, who is a realistic target that fits our scheme?
I don't disagree that current Holmes doesn't look great. But, Historic Holmes is pretty good at what we ask our C to do. Here are the O-Lebron, D-Lebron and Lebron for the last three seasons for Holmes:
19-20 0.56 2.07 2.63
20-21 0.91 0.90 1.80
21-22 -1.34 0.68 -0.66
So, is this a 28 year old who is falling apart? Did he play for a contract and check out? Both are certainly possible. Or, is he on a bad Sacramento team and needs a change of scenery. I see another Dinwiddie situation where he's done good things in the past (per 36, Holmes is a 16/10 guy with a TS% of .683 the last three seasons), but is having a bad season on a bad team. I think I read somewhere last season that he was 8th in the league in block percentage (this season he's a full point below his career average). For comparison, Powell on a per 36 basis is 13/8 with similar TS% but has about half the block percentage. Both Powell and Holmes have been nicely positive for multiple seasons for their teams in On-Off until this season where both are negative.
My issue with Holmes himself (the ability as a player) is 2-fold:
1 I'm not convinced he's all that great as a defender. When I see him play, it's offensive contributions around the lane (or nothing) that I see. Mostly, when I see the Kings play, he's invisible.
2 His own team(s) have never seemed to value him very highly. The contracts aren't great, and they look for an alternative. That tells me something.
His box score line tends to look better than the eye test. I don't see a guy who deters other teams from driving, or who controls the lane, yet that's the Mav "flaw" I see many saying needs to be fixed, then he becomes cited as the answer. I don't see that when he plays.
You cite his TS%, but he would be replacing Powell whose TS% is even better.
Re who I want at center, my point is that we seem to be trending to make the question binary -- "status quo" vs Holmes -- when we should be asking whether Holmes is enough of an upgrade (or any at all) to even move the needle while eating up $11M in salary.
It's hard to eval what players would look like on your team until you actually get them and plug them into the mix, but looking at the data, the guesses, the eye test, and so on, I don't think Holmes would offer much better or worse than what we already have. I really think he would probably be "Powell Jr" more or less, doing the same stuff, ideally a bit better at some things but maybe not even as good.
Now maybe we need to have 3 big guys to rotate at C rather than 2 (with Maxi getting some run at PF too), but I think that would be a mistake in roster building and cap management, esp if you are paying them all $10-11 per while also having 2 other centers filling roster spots.
I’m surprised so many would trade Bullock
Playoffs last year a big take away was we just didn’t have enough bodies to match up with multiple wings they were throwing at us. For 2 years it’s been Dorian and Maxi being run into the ground having to do it all defensively. Now we have another guy in Bullock to join that group(along with maybe Green too)……..I’m not seeing why we would want to trade a player like that who’s on a team friendly contract
I’m expecting Bullock to be 3rd or 4th in playoff minutes
(03-07-2022, 01:38 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]I’m surprised so many would trade Bullock
Playoffs last year a big take away was we just didn’t have enough bodies to match up with multiple wings they were throwing at us. For 2 years it’s been Dorian and Maxi being run into the ground having to do it all defensively. Now we have another guy in Bullock to join that group(along with maybe Green too)……..I’m not seeing why we would want to trade a player like that who’s on a team friendly contract
In my opinion, I have a problem to see DFS and Bullock as capable of starting together on a serious contender. Especially when you consider you will be playing 2 PG next to them. This makes your team small at most times. This is why I think we need a big wing next to DFS and two PG. Immediately when you think of Bullock as a 20 mpg back-up, his contract is not that great anymore, imho. I agree we would lose a lot of defensive potential as none of the three PG we have is a great defender. In this perspective someone like Grant would be much better fit than someone like Harris. But also much more expensive in terms of assets.
The advantage to Bullock is that he can spell DFS as our best defender on the floor AND can survive with him on the floor. I like the idea of 3 guards; 3 forwards and 2 Centers with Maxi flexing between C/PF depending on matchups and/or fouls. We are currently short one of those C's and (IMO) that 3rd forward. Between Green and Bertrans we cobble together a 3rd Forward but it takes in game time to figure out which one will be effective and in the playoffs that inconsistency is the difference between W's & L's
(03-07-2022, 09:16 AM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]
I was attempting to not include more salary for this year... adding Holmes for than 75% of his salary before July 1 is something I perceive as close to a non-starter.
So the question would be if Dallas were to do a draft night deal for Holmes using the TE does that salary count toward the Mavs TAX for the season having ended?
The only Mav tax issue is for 22-23 season.
The point about using the TE is that it lubricates most iterations of trading for Holmes. It doesn't have to be a pure "take Holmes into TE" but could be something like "Burke/Brown for Holmes" that you want and becomes doable. TE becomes too small (or might even be gone) in July, however.
I understand the obstacle in raising Mavs' salary, but the question then becomes one of identifying "what salary do you want to send the other way" and that's then going to be intertwined with the on-court value of those players. OTOH if Holmes is thought to add BIG value, and you can just send the least valuable players possible because they want off his salary, that adds more value to the Mavs. But imo "how much is Holmes really worth, if added," needs to be examined, because I'm not sure I see anything special, and I think he's been glamorized here since he's seen as available.
(03-07-2022, 11:19 AM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]Generally curious what makes Harris such a distressed asset? 18/7 and good defense seems pretty good but I admittedly haven’t watched him at all this year. I believe PHI needs to shed salary and I’ve seen it mentioned that Harris is likely the one to be moved… is that what makes him a “distressed” asset for them?
Harris is massively overpaid, for what he offers. He's a good player, but nowhere near superstar level (in any way), yet he's pulling $40M/yr the next 2 years.
I don't think the Mavs would have any interest, doe to the contract. They'd rather be on the other end of that deal, where you end up with 2-3 really useful regulars for the same money.
(03-07-2022, 12:57 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]There could be something along the lines of a draft night trade that sends:
Bertrans, Maxi and Frank to Philly
Brown to Sacto
Holmes and Harris to Dallas
IF I am Dallas, I'd like to know that Philly is primarily dumping salary and have it worked out so Maxi would become available once Philly releases him (non-guaranteed). It would be a hit to Maxi (reset Bird Rights and Dallas only having the TMLE to get him back).
"I'd like to know that Philly is primarily dumping salary and have it worked out so Maxi would become available once Philly releases him (non-guaranteed)"
That sort of scenario is no longer legal or workable. Plus, Philly would want to keep him. If you trade MK (which I see as folly), he's gone.