(02-15-2022, 02:32 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Who is highlighting the negatives? I see people highlighting facts that his recent body of work has not been good. I also see people highlighting positives and claiming how things might be totally different in Dallas than in Washington. And then I see people responding to those claims.
Lets return to the ball hogging Beal theory laid out in the article. Below are beal stats accross months
October: EFG 39, TS 45, USG 34, FGA: 24
November: 52, 56, 29, 18
December: 53, 56, 29, 19
January: 47, 54, 27, 17
So in reality Beal had by far worse month in October and there is not really any sign that he started ball hogging later in the season as the article claims.
Well the article that F Gump shared, just showed you that SD posted
18.5 points, 7.8 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 44.1% FG on 14.5 attempts, 37.8% from three on 6.3 attempts.
Doing so in a down year. That's enough reason for me alone to see why they made the trade and come to the conclusion that Dinwiddie being good again is a better bet than KP ever being good for the Mavs, much less playing 50% or more games the rest of his
short career. Matter of fact, KP may be out of the league before Bertans contract is up...
For context on the Dinwiddie numbers above... JB this year
16.1 points, 5.4 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 50.2% FG on 12.8 attempts, 35.7% from three on 3.1 attempts.
There may be some correlation but...
Ball-Hogging =/ High Usage Rate
To identify ball-hogging you have to really watch film, it's the only way to know if someone is holding on the ball too much at the detriment of the team and teammates.
(02-15-2022, 02:25 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I ascribe to this 100%.
I think this is the simplest and best explanation of my position.
SD can handle the rock and get good looks for himself and others so that's an upgrade. I'm not his biggest fan but that's probably because I love LeVert. The issue with KP and folks around here thinking he had more trade value or that he was playing "at a near all-star level" is that it was difficult to see his impact. I don't think the team ever skipped a beat when he was out but maybe that was a necessity because he was so frequently hurt.
(02-15-2022, 03:12 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]it was difficult to see his impact
Exactly.
And for me, I hope people don't think I am sunshine pumping SD and DB to be "stars." I think at their best they are solid playoff rotation players. But even at their levels this year, I don't think their impact will be worse than KP. So it is not that I am super high on DB and SD, I am just that DOWN on KP and as you put it "his impact."
(02-15-2022, 03:17 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Exactly.
And for me, I hope people don't think I am sunshine pumping SD and DB to be "stars." I think at their best they are solid playoff rotation players. But even at their levels this year, I don't think their impact will be worse than KP. So it is not that I am super high on DB and SD, I am just that DOWN on KP and as you put it "his impact."
SD is going to allow the Mavs to have an offensive initiator on the floor at all times during the game now. That's something, just not a huge something. We haven't raised our ceiling by much and this is our team for the foreseeable future.
That article is an interesting interpretation of Dimwiddie's splits with and without Beal.
I tend to side with @"omahen" and assume this was because Dimwiddie needs the ball to be effective but would love to be wrong and find out that it was simply that Beal didn't want to share which Luka could theoretically fix.
(02-15-2022, 03:22 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]SD is going to allow the Mavs to have an offensive initiator on the floor at all times during the game now. That's something, just not a huge something. We haven't raised our ceiling by much and this is our team for the foreseeable future.
Can easily imagine that one out of THJ/Bertans/SD won´t be in Dallas next season. Come draft night they could easily package one of them or a combination with the 22 1st and a future pick. Not the biggest fan but it would fit into a win now approach.
(02-15-2022, 01:34 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]One article that digs into Dinwiddie, and gives rational (not just wishful) data that might indicate he was better with Wiz than we might notice from stats seen afar. It speaks to Beal's going into a slump, which then he forced things, becoming a massive problem for the whole team.
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2022/2/15/...tatsrticle
From the article, SD's stats at the outset, then without Beal after BB became a problem --
15.7 points, 5.7 assists, 5.3 rebounds per game, 41.6% FG on 13.3 attempts, 35.6% from three on 5.6 attempts.
18.5 points, 7.8 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 44.1% FG on 14.5 attempts, 37.8% from three on 6.3 attempts
If SD can already play at that level (and you would think Luka might be easier to co-exist with), then he's not at all the "damaged goods" we fear the Mavs are going to have to rehabilitate. Which changes things completely, imo.
My favorite excerpt from that article is:
"Fit matters. Chemistry matters. Numbers can tell a story but without proper context, they can be misleading. No one is telling you Dinwiddie will be the second star the Mavericks so desperately need. Exit out of Dinwiddie’s basketball reference page and remember what Doncic has done for everyone that plays around him. He is the tide that lifts up the other boats. Bradley Beal is not that type of player."
It's articles like this that I think are dangerous however. It gives me a certain level of expectation for the new guys. I hope that the writer's rational is correct, because if so then Dinwiddie ideally is the perfect 2nd/3rd guard on a team with Luka, as he can lead the bench and create his own shot.
I'm with Kamm however. I'm going to be intently looking at his threes and defense tonight against Miami. I really do hope Dinwiddie isn't as distressed an asset as we all initially believed because like you said it changes things completely.
(02-15-2022, 03:44 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Can easily imagine that one out of THJ/Bertans/SD won´t be in Dallas next season. Come draft night they could easily package one of them or a combination with the 22 1st and a future pick. Not the biggest fan but it would fit into a win now approach.
I agree that between THJ/Bertans/Dinwiddie, one should be shipped out at least. I don't think the deadline is by the beginning of next season though. Even shipping one out with our 1st, we aren't opening up any space. I'd rather take the young prospect on a cheap contract and see how everything is fitting by next season TDL.
(02-15-2022, 03:54 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I agree that between THJ/Bertans/Dinwiddie, one should be shipped out at least. I don't think the deadline is by the beginning of next season though. Even shipping one out with our 1st, we aren't opening up any space. I'd rather take the young prospect on a cheap contract and see how everything is fitting by next season TDL.
The downside to not shipping one or even two of them at the draft or before next season, is that is a very expensive bench with the chance of causing problems in the locker room - much like what Bertans was explaining in Washington. Cap-wise there may be no rush but for hierarchy and locker-room cohesion it might be imperative. Not to mention tax implications.
My assumption is that one or two of them will be moved before next season. I'm also holding out hope that Nico has a working plan and not forgetting that he was brought here to land a STAR. The thought of his close relationship with Dame still lingers in my mind and what POR did at the TDL makes me think there
could be something there... All it takes is Dame saying trade me to Dallas.. ie Harden.
(02-15-2022, 04:03 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]The downside to not shipping one or even two of them at the draft or before next season, is that is a very expensive bench with the chance of causing problems in the locker room - much like what Bertans was explaining in Washington. Cap-wise there may be no rush but for hierarchy and locker-room cohesion it might be imperative. Not to mention tax implications.
My assumption is that one or two of them will be moved before next season. I'm also holding out hope that Nico has a working plan and not forgetting that he was brought here to land a STAR. The thought of his close relationship with Dame still lingers in my mind and what POR did at the TDL makes me think there could be something there... All it takes is Dame saying trade me to Dallas.. ie Harden.
I think this is a very false assumption. Kawhi wanted no part of going to Toronto, only had one year left, and they still sent a big package. How many years does Dame have left? He is going to the highest bidder regardless of what he says. That is not us unless it involves Luka. We have no assets to trade. If anything, this trade made it worse, but it we were nowhere near it anyways.
The Nico bringing in a star was supposed to be when we had cap space last offseason. That failed. Don't have much hope he is going to have any impact on star gathering anytime soon as we don't have assets or cap space for foreseeable future.
(02-15-2022, 04:03 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]The downside to not shipping one or even two of them at the draft or before next season, is that is a very expensive bench with the chance of causing problems in the locker room - much like what Bertans was explaining in Washington. Cap-wise there may be no rush but for hierarchy and locker-room cohesion it might be imperative. Not to mention tax implications.
My assumption is that one or two of them will be moved before next season. I'm also holding out hope that Nico has a working plan and not forgetting that he was brought here to land a STAR. The thought of his close relationship with Dame still lingers in my mind and what POR did at the TDL makes me think there could be something there... All it takes is Dame saying trade me to Dallas.. ie Harden.
We will be lucky if we can move two of them with the meager assets we have to attach. That would mean one of the new guys actually improved his value (meaning less negative).
(02-15-2022, 02:18 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Our '22 FRP could be the most important of the Luka era.
That remains my biggest problem with this trade. The fact that the Wizards were more desperate than us and we didn’t stick to our guns and demand a FRP. Picks..plural…matter. Instead we not only did not get a FRP but gave up a 2nd round pick.
(02-15-2022, 03:54 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I agree that between THJ/Bertans/Dinwiddie, one should be shipped out at least. I don't think the deadline is by the beginning of next season though. Even shipping one out with our 1st, we aren't opening up any space. I'd rather take the young prospect on a cheap contract and see how everything is fitting by next season TDL.
Agreed, definitely 1 of THJ/Dinwiddie is gone by start of next season. They are redundant.
The only way Bertans goes out is if you are sending a #1 pick with him and getting nothing in return. That contract will be unmovable so we better get comfortable with it.
I think there’s the possibility that the mavs ship out one or both of Powell/Maxi this summer because of the logjam of unspectacular bigs, but they should only do that if they needed filler for a trade. Since both Powell and Maxi roll off the books after next year there is no huge benefit to trading them unless you get something in return.
I think the best hope of roster moves this summer is probably:
Mavs send: THJ (or Dinwiddie) + Maxi + whoever they pick in the first round
Mavs receive: ???
This also would fit the “flexibility” narrative Nico is preaching since the redundant nature of his recent acquisition make other people on the roster more expendable.
(02-15-2022, 05:04 PM)soog Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs send: THJ (or Dinwiddie) + Maxi + whoever they pick in the first round
Mavs receive: ???
This is exactly what I envision also.
Turner?!
(02-15-2022, 05:08 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]This is exactly what I envision also.
Turner?!
You know what they say - great minds!
I’m with you (as I’m sure many others are) on prioritizing a big. I think Turner is staying though with the new construction of the pacers.
(02-15-2022, 05:19 PM)soog Wrote: [ -> ]You know what they say - great minds!
I’m with you (as I’m sure many others are) on prioritizing a big. I think Turner is staying though with the new construction of the pacers.
Unfortunately, I agree with you again.
We did just trade away an oft-injured BIG… maybe it’s for the best.
(02-15-2022, 03:17 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Exactly.
And for me, I hope people don't think I am sunshine pumping SD and DB to be "stars." I think at their best they are solid playoff rotation players. But even at their levels this year, I don't think their impact will be worse than KP. So it is not that I am super high on DB and SD, I am just that DOWN on KP and as you put it "his impact."
We shall see. If we are basing KP impact on win/loss with/without KP (which a lot of folks seem to be doing) then we should do just as well if not better over our remaining games, right? Luka missed quite a few games earlier in the season, so we should really do better. My guess is the winning percentage and standings start sliding. If Luka misses time like he did earlier in the year, it will be significant.
I think this view that KP did not contribute is over the top. He did not contribute as much as would be hoped or expected, but this front court is going to wear down as the season goes and I guessing we are going to get punished more and more at the rim when teams realize there is virtually no resistance. I don't see how this team currently constructed makes it through a playoff round. I could easily see it with a healthy KP.
(02-15-2022, 12:52 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with you that they were willing to trade KP, but I'm not as confident as you are that they did so with the idea that they were going to take anything they could get. I think they like the players enough, didn't have to add a pick or player and thought that the timing and return was sufficient. I truly believe some in the organization like Dinwiddie and want him to be here and succeed here in his bench role. Bertans at his best gives this team much needed outside shooting but imo Dinwiddie is the "prize" going forward and the hope for me is that he fits perfectly as the much needed 6th man role the Mavs need and/or becomes a positive asset again for trade purposes. I see those two things as somewhat likely whereas KP ever being an effective difference maker or healthy co-star as highly unlikely.
I think we are both saying the same thing.
Priority 1 which I still feel is a good thing is them coming to the determination of what style they wanted to play with Luka as the centerpiece and determining KP does not fit there. When I say Luka as the centerpiece, I am including stretches where Luka might be out. It is very difficult for the coaching staff and other teammates too to accommodate different styles that cater to the two best players because they never really meshed to play off one another. We never had a KP Luka 2 man game the entire time they were here.
Once they determined that they were ready to move KP they were ready to sell him cheap but the parts coming back at least had to fit the style they wanted to move forward towards. That’s why I capitalized the word AND in my previous post.
So best case scenario it works out great and one or both of Dimwiddie and Bertans shine here. Worst case neither really do. However in either case the Mavs are progressing towards a certain style that does not change when Luka is on or off the floor to accommodate someone else who despite being talented really needs the coaching staff to come up with a totally different game plan to consistently put him in the best position to shine. That stress is no longer there whether these new players shine or not. When they will be upgraded the players replacing them will also fit the style the Mavs now know they want to build around Luka.
(02-15-2022, 04:53 PM)hakeemfaan Wrote: [ -> ]That remains my biggest problem with this trade. The fact that the Wizards were more desperate than us and we didn’t stick to our guns and demand a FRP. Picks..plural…matter. Instead we not only did not get a FRP but gave up a 2nd round pick.
This is what I don't understand. I understand not liking the deal. I understand thinking no deal would have been better than the deal that was made. I don't understand asserting there was a better deal to be made. How are the "Wizards more desperate than us"? By the time they made the deal, Beal had had season-ending surgery and they were sitting at 24-29 with a best case scenario of scraping into the 10th seed and getting bounced in the first play-in game. The remainder of the season is a clear write-off for them. If they didn't like the deal, they could just wait for the summer and hope to find a better deal then--or even come back to take the deal then since they knew no one else was looking to take Porzingis off our hands.
Dallas, on the other hand, will be a playoff team, and while I doubt anyone in the front office thinks they are an actual contender, I think they think they could win a series or two (worth millions to the franchise if so). If they didn't move KP now, they would *have to* play him which a) they don't seem to have wanted to do, and b) risk that final injury that tanked his value completely which they were apparently worried about.
If anything, what may have made the deal possible (given no other team seems to have been interested in gambling on KP) was the fact that the Wizards were *not* desparate and felt comfortable making Dallas a take it or leave it offer.
I think there is probably another reason why KP got traded. Some injuries are clearly ones players cant play through, if there is a torn ACL they are done. However star players take a beating and play though pain. Clearly Luka plays through a lot of pain, he takes a beating. KP on the other hand is very protective of his body and is afraid to get a bigger injury so he is currently sitting out a 2nd or 3rd week with a bone bruise. I think KP sitting out minor stuff is what pissed the team off, especially Luka. How come he has to play through a bad back and KP gets to relax and collect 30MM+ each season.