If only we had given somebody a one year contract last summer.
(02-02-2023, 01:21 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]If only we had given somebody a one year contract last summer.
That McGee contract should be a reason to fire someone. Made no sense when they signed it, which was quickly proven in reality. What a terrible decision that was...
(02-02-2023, 01:26 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]That McGee contract should be a reason to fire someone. Made no sense when they signed it, which was quickly proven in reality. What a terrible decision that was...
Which is the problem with having the owner be the final say in player/personnel decisions, of course. You’re not gonna fire yourself, so the bottom line is that there really isn’t any true accountability.
I feel like I have walked into a little bit of a Twilight Zone in terms of the issues with Christian Wood. I have this strange sense that his injury has muddied the perspective on things here. Some observations:
1) I sense a conventional wisdom to which the board has come over the past month, largely due to our gentlemen of weighty opinions, F Gump and Dan, that Wood simply does not fit with the Mavs because his defense is trash. Therefore, he isn't worth a Brunson-size contract to the Mavs.
2) It seems evident from tea leaves that we are seeing on Twitter that Wood is gone, which indicates that the Mavs don't envision signing him long term.
3) As F Gump has pointed out, his trade value right now is poopsville since he is a rental.
4) Wood must not be very interested in being part of a winning team in any event, since, to my knowledge, none of the teams scheduled to have cap room this summer are contenders.
All this seems quite weird to me. I thought Wood was doing better than expected on D, and was certainly working hard on learning the scheme and putting in effort. I know that the advanced stats aren't good, but we were missing DFS, Green, and Maxi. He seemed happy here. He seems to mesh well with Luka. Overall, he seems to me to be tied with Brunson as the most talented teammate Luka has had here.
Bottom line, I do not agree with Dan and F Gump. I think Wood would be very fine here as the third best player. Third best players on recent championship teams have made good money. A 2/$52 mil or 4/$105 mil contract does not seem unreasonable to me for Wood given what he has brought, and they should be able to retain him for less if he has any interest whatsoever in playing for a winner. I am completely confused at the Mavs' seeming unwillinghess to keep him long term. What I'm smelling is that it's a rotten JKidd issue - and JKidd should absolutely be gone this April or May if we don't make the playoffs (unless, of course, Luka gets injured and we go into active tank mode).
To me, this is just a nightmare of really poor asset management. I have no issue with last year's draft pick; that argument does not concern me, especially given the poor selections (which, tbh, I thought were excellent ones at the time) of Terry and Bey in the draft two years ago. It's not their strength. However, I feel like Wood is one of the best assets on the team. You lock him down at market value (i.e. less than the numbers I listed above), and he helps the team in the short term and can be a trade asset in the long term.
Bottom line, 1) there had damn well better be locker room issues that we don't know about and which have not been visible *at all* in what we have seen publicly this season, including perhaps alcohol or drug addiction, and 2) the Mavs had better make big hay out of whatever they get in the undervalued trade they make for Wood. Of course, you can forget about all of this if all of the tea leaves are wrong, we don't trade him, and he extends with us or re-signs in the summertime.
One more thing - if we trade Wood and it isn't part of a deal for a Siakam-like guy, there is no way this team makes the playoffs. If nothing else, Luka will break down carrying what is otherwise a deep lottery team minus Wood. Better hope we get Victor...
(02-02-2023, 01:31 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]I feel like I have walked into a little bit of a Twilight Zone in terms of the issues with Christian Wood. I have this strange sense that his injury has muddied the perspective on things here. Some observations:
1) I sense a conventional wisdom to which the board has come over the past month, largely due to our gentlemen of weighty opinions, F Gump and Dan, that Wood simply does not fit with the Mavs because his defense is trash. Therefore, he isn't worth a Brunson-size contract to the Mavs.
2) It seems evident from tea leaves that we are seeing on Twitter that Wood is gone, which indicates that the Mavs don't envision signing him long term.
3) As F Gump has pointed out, his trade value right now is poopsville since he is a rental.
4) Wood must not be very interested in being part of a winning team in any event, since, to my knowledge, none of the teams scheduled to have cap room this summer are contenders.
All this seems quite weird to me. I thought Wood was doing better than expected on D, and was certainly working hard on learning the scheme and putting in effort. I know that the advanced stats aren't good, but we were missing DFS, Green, and Maxi. He seemed happy here. He seems to mesh well with Luka. Overall, he seems to me to be tied with Brunson as the most talented teammate Luka has had here.
Bottom line, I do not agree with Dan and F Gump. I think Wood would be very fine here as the third best player. Third best players on recent championship teams have made good money. A 2/$52 mil or 4/$105 mil contract does not seem unreasonable to me for Wood given what he has brought, and they should be able to retain him for less if he has any interest whatsoever in playing for a winner. I am completely confused at the Mavs' seeming unwillinghess to keep him long term. What I'm smelling is that it's a rotten JKidd issue - and JKidd should absolutely be gone this April or May if we don't make the playoffs (unless, of course, Luka gets injured and we go into active tank mode).
To me, this is just a nightmare of really poor asset management. I have no issue with last year's draft pick; that argument does not concern me, especially given the poor selections (which, tbh, I thought were excellent ones at the time) of Terry and Bey in the draft two years ago. It's not their strength. However, I feel like Wood is one of the best assets on the team. You lock him down at market value (i.e. less than the numbers I listed above), and he helps the team in the short term and can be a trade asset in the long term.
Bottom line, 1) there had damn well better be locker room issues that we don't know about and which have not been visible *at all* in what we have seen publicly this season, including perhaps alcohol or drug addiction, and 2) the Mavs had better make big hay out of whatever they get in the undervalued trade they make for Wood. Of course, you can forget about all of this if all of the tea leaves are wrong, we don't trade him, and he extends with us or re-signs in the summertime.
From my perspective, the conventional wisdom on this board in general is that Wood is worth the full extension and we should offer it if we have not already. There is some question if he can be a center on a contender, and there is some question as to what contract offer he will get in free agency, especially if he limits himself to a "winner". But I think most folks don't want to get into a bird rights trap with him like we did with Brunson, and his max extension is not near what Brunson's contract currently is.
I'm not ready to hammer the FO yet until the mistake is actually made. We hear a lot of stuff and a lot of it is noise. If we go past the TDL without an extension or trade, I will be very concerned, but even then it does not become a true failure unless he walks in the offseason.
(02-02-2023, 01:39 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]One more thing - if we trade Wood and it isn't part of a deal for a Siakam-like guy, there is no way this team makes the playoffs. If nothing else, Luka will break down carrying what is otherwise a deep lottery team minus Wood. Better hope we get Victor...
The trade rumors are a risk if you go strict by data. Even if they lose Tim, it might not be pretty in the end. Is Spencer so valuable for this team that you have to ship out players (Tim & Wood) to make it work with Luka on D? If you wanna be
corny, that is the current Mavs situation. Obviously with the wrinkle that Wood is expiring and Spencer has a contract.
The data doesn't support shipping out Timmy either. The moment Luka + SD is without Tim, the Mavs perform like a bottom 5 team. And 400 min is a decent minutes sample size.
![[Image: sd.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/gGHkJptP/sd.png)
There is a decent amount of "screw up" potential, if you think moving Tim and/or Wood is solving the Mavs problems, when Luka + SD might been the problem all along.
(02-02-2023, 01:31 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]I feel like I have walked into a little bit of a Twilight Zone in terms of the issues with Christian Wood. I have this strange sense that his injury has muddied the perspective on things here. Some observations:
1) I sense a conventional wisdom to which the board has come over the past month, largely due to our gentlemen of weighty opinions, F Gump and Dan, that Wood simply does not fit with the Mavs because his defense is trash. Therefore, he isn't worth a Brunson-size contract to the Mavs.
2) It seems evident from tea leaves that we are seeing on Twitter that Wood is gone, which indicates that the Mavs don't envision signing him long term.
3) As F Gump has pointed out, his trade value right now is poopsville since he is a rental.
4) Wood must not be very interested in being part of a winning team in any event, since, to my knowledge, none of the teams scheduled to have cap room this summer are contenders.
All this seems quite weird to me. I thought Wood was doing better than expected on D, and was certainly working hard on learning the scheme and putting in effort. I know that the advanced stats aren't good, but we were missing DFS, Green, and Maxi. He seemed happy here. He seems to mesh well with Luka. Overall, he seems to me to be tied with Brunson as the most talented teammate Luka has had here.
Bottom line, I do not agree with Dan and F Gump. I think Wood would be very fine here as the third best player. Third best players on recent championship teams have made good money. A 2/$52 mil or 4/$105 mil contract does not seem unreasonable to me for Wood given what he has brought, and they should be able to retain him for less if he has any interest whatsoever in playing for a winner. I am completely confused at the Mavs' seeming unwillinghess to keep him long term. What I'm smelling is that it's a rotten JKidd issue - and JKidd should absolutely be gone this April or May if we don't make the playoffs (unless, of course, Luka gets injured and we go into active tank mode).
To me, this is just a nightmare of really poor asset management. I have no issue with last year's draft pick; that argument does not concern me, especially given the poor selections (which, tbh, I thought were excellent ones at the time) of Terry and Bey in the draft two years ago. It's not their strength. However, I feel like Wood is one of the best assets on the team. You lock him down at market value (i.e. less than the numbers I listed above), and he helps the team in the short term and can be a trade asset in the long term.
Bottom line, 1) there had damn well better be locker room issues that we don't know about and which have not been visible *at all* in what we have seen publicly this season, including perhaps alcohol or drug addiction, and 2) the Mavs had better make big hay out of whatever they get in the undervalued trade they make for Wood. Of course, you can forget about all of this if all of the tea leaves are wrong, we don't trade him, and he extends with us or re-signs in the summertime.
Wow. Excellent, and I agree 100%.
If Wood was on another team right now, most of this board would be trade proposals to get him.
(02-02-2023, 03:07 PM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]The trade rumors are a risk if you go strict by data. Even if they lose Tim, it might not be pretty in the end. Is Spencer so valuable for this team that you have to ship out players (Tim & Wood) to make it work with Luka on D? If you wanna be corny, that is the current Mavs situation. Obviously with the wrinkle that Wood is expiring and Spencer has a contract.
The data doesn't support shipping out Timmy either. The moment Luka + SD is without Tim, the Mavs perform like a bottom 5 team. And 400 min is a decent minutes sample size.
There is a decent amount of "screw up" potential, if you think moving Tim and/or Wood is solving the Mavs problems, when Luka + SD might been the problem all along.
Curious what this looks like with Luka/Green with Hardaway/Bullock as players off and also with Hardaway/Bullock/Dinwiddie off
(02-02-2023, 03:07 PM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]The trade rumors are a risk if you go strict by data. Even if they lose Tim, it might not be pretty in the end. Is Spencer so valuable for this team that you have to ship out players (Tim & Wood) to make it work with Luka on D? If you wanna be corny, that is the current Mavs situation. Obviously with the wrinkle that Wood is expiring and Spencer has a contract.
The data doesn't support shipping out Timmy either. The moment Luka + SD is without Tim, the Mavs perform like a bottom 5 team. And 400 min is a decent minutes sample size.
There is a decent amount of "screw up" potential, if you think moving Tim and/or Wood is solving the Mavs problems, when Luka + SD might been the problem all along.
I still say Luka, Din, Green, DFS, Wood is our best lineup. Balanced.
(02-02-2023, 03:21 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: [ -> ]I still say Luka, Din, Green, DFS, Wood is our best lineup. Balanced.
They have played 5 min together and are +30 net.
Luka/Din/Green/Wood 15 min together. And +20.
(02-02-2023, 03:16 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]Curious what this looks like with Luka/Green with Hardaway/Bullock as players off and also with Hardaway/Bullock/Dinwiddie off
The Green data is really limited in terms of huge sample size. But the data suggesting Kidd could easily start Green over SD right now. And not be worried that the offense collapses.
The ORtg from Luka / Green is very high. There isn't much evidence the Luka/Mavs offense need guys to be successful. As long as Luka is on the floor. Or Green is really underrated on offense.
Luka / Green without SD -> 127 ORtg in 293 min (+18 net rating)
Luka / Green without THJ -> 119 ORtg in 154 min (+11 net rating)
Luka / Green without Wood -> 118 ORtg in 190 min (+3 net rating)
Luka / Green without SD/THJ -> 124 ORtg in 110 min (+16 net rating)
Luka / Green without SD/THJ/Wood -> 133 ORtg in 51 min (+21 net rating)
Certainly doesn't support any concerns about moving Green to the s5.
(02-02-2023, 01:31 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]1) I sense a conventional wisdom to which the board has come over the past month, largely due to our gentlemen of weighty opinions, F Gump and Dan, that Wood simply does not fit with the Mavs because his defense is trash. Therefore, he isn't worth a Brunson-size contract to the Mavs.
2) It seems evident from tea leaves that we are seeing on Twitter that Wood is gone, which indicates that the Mavs don't envision signing him long term.
Who are you calling overweight :<
I’m with mvossman in that I think the prevailing opinion of the board is still quite positive toward Wood. If anything has changed, it is simply because Kamm and Killer don’t say it a dozen times a day any more (I don’t know that that means they changed their minds. They may have just grown weary).
I’m also not positive I understand what you are arguing in favor of. The numbers you propose are not possible currently. Do you want to pay him a number you don’t think he should accept or do you think we should wait until the summer and hope he wants to stay? If the latter, you are probably out of consensus on that. Most here say sign or trade. FG added the thought that they might hold off on doing something until after the TDL (like they did with DFS) and it was universally rejected.
I’ve tried to walk a fine line with Wood. I think he has limitations, but I’ve allowed for the possibility we keep him and put defensive studs around him. If that is the view, then you probably give him the years and dollars you are allowed. That hasn’t happened and Wood’s camp hasn’t complained about the dollars. So, the assumption is that we are either waiting for the TDL or the team doesn’t see him this way. It wouldn’t be shocking at all for an extension to be announced within days after 2/9.
If he isn’t a long term starter on a contending team, then you have to look at him as a bench big with scoring punch and pay him appropriately. In the trade I proposed to Brooklyn today, Wood would clearly come off the bench as the 4th big behind Durant, Claxton and Simmons. That would be a fantastic role for him. We don’t see that here because we don’t have players nearly as good as Brooklyn in our front court. But, that doesn’t mean you should pay him as a starter just because you otherwise suck. Isn’t that what got us into the four year deal we now have with THJ?
The chirping from ‘informed sources’ seems to currently be leaning toward moving on from him. Who knows if it is a matter of the team not wanting him or Wood thinking more highly of himself than the Mavs do (or 100 other possibilities). I think FG is bringing wisdom here pointing out that the two year offer ‘may’ be the 105% variety which keeps Wood trade eligible. $15mm is a very well paid 6th man. I think it behooves Wood to get what he can now because I think his market in the summer is the MLE or a hair over. You’ve mentioned $26mm a year this summer. So, yes…we are definitely very far apart in our assessment. If you are correct, Wood should absolutely wait and Dallas should probably trade him. The good news is a $26mm player should bring in quite a haul in picks and talent (and an MLE-level bench big won’t). So, we will have a pretty good idea where we are in less than a week.
Dan I really respect your opinion, but I don't see how Wood can be seen as a MLE player. Look at the contracts guys get every year that shock people. I definitely think he is closer to a 20 mil per year player in today's market than he is to a MLE player imo.
(02-02-2023, 06:01 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: [ -> ]Dan I really respect your opinion, but I don't see how Wood can be seen as a MLE player. Look at the contracts guys get every year that shock people. I definitely think he is closer to a 20 mil per year player in today's market than he is to a MLE player imo.
Then he should bring a nice haul of assets if he’s traded. That’s Jarrett Allen money or about the 10th/11th ranked center in the league in terms of pay.
MLE was probably harsh. But the market at center is crowded this summer and it is challenging to find a cap room team that fits. A S&T for something in the range of his extension is probably more likely (the AAV of the extension is over $19mm). But this board is going to come unglued if we get past the TDL and Wood is retained and not extended.
(02-02-2023, 06:49 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/joeylinn_/status/162...49408?s=20&t=RxZz29jLAvnTebcGCwUMgA
Portland with interest in Vanderbilt
https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status...96739?s=61&t=HxLvo6jaZvqjkcyeT4SC3Q
In the Brunson draft, Vanderbilt would have been my pick there. I do thin Vanderbilt may be getting a tad overrated. Good player. I am not sure he is a starter for a contender. Still young though and is getting better, so we will see.
Sending a message to Grant? Or, just an addition to Grant and Nurkic and replacing Eubanks?
Dan, I do disagree with you on Wood's market value. I think he's a starter in terms of the numbers he can put up, and I believe from what I have seen in games that his defensive shortcomings are overstated, particularly with respect to how he has played here. He's slightly below average, not Arvydas Sabonis. I think his market value this summer would be in the $20-$25 mil per year range. I don't think his camp signs any of the in-season extensions - even at 4 years - because they agree with me that his Mavs campaign has resulted in a much higher price tag. If I'm wrong and he signs an extension at any point, that would be a killing for the Mavs, but the Twitter tea leaves suggest they know that isn't happening, whether from their end (which would be abjectly pathetic, tbh) or his.
With the numbers I put out, I'm not ignorantly suggesting they can extend him for that (I know and knew they can't), but rather that they keep him into the summer and make him a reasonable offer. What I'm sniffing is 1) they feel like they can't chance another Brunson, and/or 2) they don't want him at market value. I think the latter is pretty stupid (chirping at the FO, not you), because this team can't afford a drop in talent quotient - which trading Wood now would definitely result in, if a bit less than losing him for nothing.
Edit: I'll go one further. Given the destruction which a Wood trade or loss would cause to the talent quotient, I think that automatically triggers a Luka trade request, whether immediately or down the line. This roster minus Wood is dog doo.