(11-08-2022, 01:20 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]They have plenty of way outs. They can trade either KAT or Edwards, both would fetch close to Gobert like haul
I'm skeptical about the return for either of those guys coming close to a Gobert level package. Just to remind myself I looked up what the Wolves traded and it was:
Malik Beasley
Pat Bev
Leandro Bolmaro
Jarred Vanderbilt
Walker Kessler (22nd pick)
2023, 2025, 2027, and 2029 FRP + a 2026 pick swap.
So 6 picks if we're counting Walker Kessler, and 4 role players.
I think KAT and Edwards might be worth half of that on their own, so MAYBE they can retool but in reality just rebuild (again). But Gobert's package was a KD in his prime-esque package. If most trades for 2nd tier all-star guys went for that, the NBA would almost never have trades.
(11-08-2022, 02:19 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I think KAT and Edwards might be worth half of that on their own
To be fair, would you have predicted that cost for a Gobert trade before it happened?
Honestly, I think of everything we speculate about around here, trade value has to be one of the least accurate categories. It's not our fault, we just aren't on the inside.
(11-08-2022, 01:05 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Edwards came into this season out of shape so it's surprising how much he's deriding his team publicly.
But you do have to wonder how panicky they're feeling after mortgaging their entire stash for Gobert with no way out.
If my team traded that much for Gobert I might not even show up tbh lmfaooooo
(11-08-2022, 02:26 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]To be fair, would you have predicted that cost for a Gobert trade before it happened?
Honestly, I think of everything we speculate about around here, trade value has to be one of the least accurate categories. It's not our fault, we just aren't on the inside.
When it comes to the Gobert trade I think its more about not realizing how dumb some franchises can be. I think most folks on here called that out as a terrible trade and it already looks like a disaster. It amazes me how often teams do something so incredibly and obviously stupid.
(11-08-2022, 04:43 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]When it comes to the Gobert trade I think its more about not realizing how dumb some franchises can be. I think most folks on here called that out as a terrible trade and it already looks like a disaster. It amazes me how often teams do something so incredibly and obviously stupid.
Oh, no argument, whatsoever. Chalk it up to whatever you want, but I really think we talk about what players might be worth in the trade market with very, very little actual knowledge of factors like how that player is perceived, how different teams value different skillsets in general, how many players of certain skillset types are actually available, to what degree a rumored player is actually available (meaning it might take a crazy offer to actually get it done), which players/agents want to work with which teams, what effect on trade negotiations future contractual obligations (and potential wishes from the player, if the current one is ending soon) might have, etc, etc, etc. We have educated guess about all of the above, but it's not like we're working the phones for a living.
I also think fans tend to look at trades backwards, sort of 75/25 from the teams' perspective. My personal opinion is that it's actually about 60/40 about the wishes of the players/teams. I've even heard several executives use the word "transfer" instead of "trade," as if that's what they call it in the business. Just think about the implications of that for a few minutes. For me, some interesting and significant perspective was gained that way.
All we can do is speculate. The last few years have seen so many deals that shocked us with trade costs (in both directions). I think the most pointless thing we do is
argue (not to be confused with simply having an opinion) about whether or not a trade is possible. I get that there are some deals suggested that are straight up ridiculous, but once you get to a realm of conversation that's in any way realistic, we really don't know to any degree of certainty just
how realistic they might be.
(11-08-2022, 04:59 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Oh, no argument, whatsoever. Chalk it up to whatever you want, but I really think we talk about what players might be worth in the trade market with very, very little actual knowledge of factors like how that player is perceived, how different teams value different skillsets in general, how many players of certain skillset types are actually available, to what degree a rumored player is actually available (meaning it might take a crazy offer to actually get it done), which players/agents want to work with which teams, what effect on trade negotiations future contractual obligations (and potential wishes from the player, if the current one is ending soon) might have, etc, etc, etc. We have educated guess about all of the above, but it's not like we're working the phones for a living.
I also think fans tend to look at trades backwards, sort of 75/25 from the teams' perspective. My personal opinion is that it's actually about 60/40 about the wishes of the players/teams. I've even heard several executives use the word "transfer" instead of "trade," as if that's what they call it in the business. Just think about the implications of that for a few minutes. For me, some interesting and significant perspective was gained that way.
All we can do is speculate. The last few years have seen so many deals that shocked us with trade costs (in both directions). I think the most pointless thing we do is argue (not to be confused with simply having an opinion) about whether or not a trade is possible. I get that there are some deals suggested that are straight up ridiculous, but once you get to a realm of conversation that's in any way realistic, we really don't know to any degree of certainty just how realistic they might be.
Agreed, especially the 75/25 by fans. It gets abused a lot. I call out others and try to avoid it myself, but I have been guilty multiple times. It's hard to find trades that make sense to both sides, and a lot of the trades we see don't really seem to do that.
(11-08-2022, 02:26 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]To be fair, would you have predicted that cost for a Gobert trade before it happened?
Honestly, I think of everything we speculate about around here, trade value has to be one of the least accurate categories. It's not our fault, we just aren't on the inside.
No I wouldn't have ever predicted that Gobert would've fetched a package that he did.
You're right in that we have at best a small narrow view of what is actually going on, and many trades are done for several reasons.
BUT, there also has to be a team that would be willing to part with that many assets. There are very few that can cough up 6 picks just like that (OKC being the lone outlier).
To think that both KAT and Edwards could go for a package like Gobert to me is just a fantasy. Together? Sure. But I think the Gobert trade was a hallmark moment that sobered up the league in mortgaging their future so willingly.
(11-09-2022, 12:49 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I think the Gobert trade was a hallmark moment that sobered up the league in mortgaging their future so willingly.
That’s very possible.
My guess about the topic: I think it’s possible KAT would come more cheaply than people might expect, but then again it wouldn’t surprise me if he went for a haul.
But Edwards? He has started the season of a little out of shape, but he is on a trajectory that ends with him being a top-five player. He is one of the more gifted athletes in the league, and I think the NBA would go gaga were he to be made available.
Between Davis and Towns. Higher trade value? Who would you prefer?
(11-09-2022, 01:43 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Between Davis and Towns. Higher trade value? Who would you prefer?
At their actual contracts? None. But if I have to chose, give me AD he won't cause drama and might go nova now and then if healty by surprise.
KAT is just impossible to build around.
(11-09-2022, 12:49 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]But I think the Gobert trade was a hallmark moment that sobered up the league in mortgaging their future so willingly.
I am not so certain. A lot of picks are concentrated on just a couple of teams and I think this is lowering their overall value. What is for OKC or Pelicans to throw 5 picks on the table?
As for Edwards and KAT. They are both young, KAT just entering their prime. KAT a star and Edwards becoming one with a huge potential. Even if one doesn't see them as the cornerstone to build around, they are certainly considered as elite second guys. Both contract controlled for a long time. Gobert haul was outrageous, but Mitchell one wasn't that much lower, and he can certainly be a very similar comparison regarding the value of a star.
(11-09-2022, 12:49 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]To think that both KAT and Edwards could go for a package like Gobert to me is just a fantasy.
Agreed.
People underplay how accomplished Gobert is and how he has had some of the best impact numbers of the last decade.
Edwards would still be really, really expensive though.
KAT probably not so much.
(11-09-2022, 02:57 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I am not so certain. A lot of picks are concentrated on just a couple of teams and I think this is lowering their overall value. What is for OKC or Pelicans to throw 5 picks on the table?
I think it depends. If neither of those teams are in on a given player, then first round picks are scarce and they may actually be more valuable.
I do think (and predicted when it happened) that the Gobert trade will be a cautionary tale that will eventually lower the price of second tier stars (like the kind we are looking for).
(11-09-2022, 08:23 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]People underplay how accomplished Gobert is and how he has had some of the best impact numbers of the last decade.
Those impact numbers are certainly working their magic on the Wolves.
MIN overpaid for a guy that wasn't worth it because they were a desperate franchise with new owners trying to make a splash. Just because Gobert went for a kings ransom doesn't mean that was his true value nor does it speak to Gobert's impact on the court. Overpays and underpays happen all the time in business. MIN did a bad deal for a one dimensional dinosaur.
(11-09-2022, 02:57 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]As for Edwards and KAT. They are both young, KAT just entering their prime. KAT a star and Edwards becoming one with a huge potential. Even if one doesn't see them as the cornerstone to build around, they are certainly considered as elite second guys. Both contract controlled for a long time. Gobert haul was outrageous, but Mitchell one wasn't that much lower, and he can certainly be a very similar comparison regarding the value of a star.
My speculation for the negative holds as much weight as air in space. Both KAT and Edwards are good players. I guess time will tell if there will be a team that is willing to throw the sink at either one of them. I hope it isn't the Mavs.
At the end of the day the Mavs need to nail the next big evaluation of who
just needs a chance of scenery,
just needs to get healthy,
who just doesn´t have it mentally,
who is done physically.
They swung and missed on Porzingis badly. 24 months later it looks like Markkanen will be/is a better player than Porzingis. You could have gotten him for next to nothing on a cheaper deal than THJ.
Every big player that is being traded has some issues, it´s just on the Mavs to figure out who/which are fixable.
KAT has some question marks about his personality and mental approach. On the other hand you are talking about a guy that was hit harder by COVID than any other player in the league. He´s currently averaging 22/9/6 while shooting 50/36/94. If I told you those were Jokic´s numbers you´d believe it. About to turn 27 so entering his prime. Outside of the COVID years, he barely missed any games.
I doubt Minnesota will give up on the Gobert experiment as quickly as we hope though. I think AD is actually the most realistic trade target. I think the Lakers know it´s over and so does LeBron. He´ll never catch MJ in number of NBA titles, but that all-time scoring number is realistic, so stat-padding away on a bad team.
(11-09-2022, 05:15 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]At the end of the day the Mavs need to nail the next big evaluation of who
just needs a chance of scenery,
just needs to get healthy,
who just doesn´t have it mentally,
who is done physically.
They swung and missed on Porzingis badly. 24 months later it looks like Markkanen will be/is a better player than Porzingis. You could have gotten him for next to nothing on a cheaper deal than THJ.
Every big player that is being traded has some issues, it´s just on the Mavs to figure out who/which are fixable.
KAT has some question marks about his personality and mental approach. On the other hand you are talking about a guy that was hit harder by COVID than any other player in the league. He´s currently averaging 22/9/6 while shooting 50/36/94. If I told you those were Jokic´s numbers you´d believe it. About to turn 27 so entering his prime. Outside of the COVID years, he barely missed any games.
I doubt Minnesota will give up on the Gobert experiment as quickly as we hope though. I think AD is actually the most realistic trade target. I think the Lakers know it´s over and so does LeBron. He´ll never catch MJ in number of NBA titles, but that all-time scoring number is realistic, so stat-padding away on a bad team.
I agree the Mavs need to nail the next big move, but I don't know why we would be going after high priced bigs with red flags? Isn't that what got us into the KP mess? I don't have interest in paying big assets for any of the bigs you mentioned.
At this point Luka just needs help. I don’t care how big of a headcase he is but if he can be bad for nothing mavs need to give Kyrie another look. If all we have to offload is a combo of THJ, Bertans, McGee, or Powell and some 2nd round picks to get Kyrie it’s a no brainer. He looks like he has so much respect for Luka when they played in Brooklyn and he wouldn’t think of himself as the #1. He would alleviate so many problems and teams wouldn’t know how to stop us on offense. Bonafide number 2 superstar and he idolized Kidd and we have an amazing culture we should just pull the trigger if he can be had for cheap. If he doesn’t work just let him walk in the off-season or keep him away from the team, but none of our fourth quarter issues would be happening with him on the team. Dinwiddie off the bench constantly attacking right after Kyrie or Luka is out of the game would be lethal, and Kyrie can play off the ball and won’t miss 3’s like everyone else. If they would include Seth in the deal too would be even better. He had some of his best years in Dallas and would be revitalized coming back.
Luka/Dinwiddie
Kyrie/Seth
Bullock/Green
Dorian/wood
Maxi/wood/McGee
(11-10-2022, 04:31 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...5222844416
I really think Beal may be a target for Dallas in time. That team probably isn't going anywhere. Beal has a huge salary, so it will limit their options. Some will disagree and that is fine. I have not made my mind on where he rates either. He is billed as a great shooter, but doesn't shoot at a high percentage.