These L2M reports are just dumb. Looks like Embiid clearly grabs his left wrist, but honestly who cares. That stuff is just lip service. What makes a bad call in the last two minutes more important than in the first two minutes? Not even the best referees can get every call right either.
If you interested in actually improving the game, you grade every single minute of every single regular season game and rate referees accordingly, move them up and down in tiers and assign play-offs/big games accordingly. I´d even go as far as having a random draw out of all tiers, so the NBA can actually not assign certain crews at all.
Me personally I still believe the NBA is most interested in evaluating which officiating crew´s tendencies are giving them the best odds to get a desired outcome in any given play-off situation.
(01-16-2023, 01:38 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Reading tea leaves...
I think the THJ to Cleveland talk is real. Let's call it LeVert plus a second. But, LeVert doesn't really do us much good longer term. So, it (probably/hopefully) requires a third team.
I think Collins ends up in Indy. BTW, that is a pretty nice remake in a short amount of time...Turner/Collins/Hield/Mathuran/Halliburton.
Indy has extra late firsts this offseason. They can eat all of the Collins money and still be a hair under the cap. HOWEVER, part of the strategy of bringing in Collins to play PF would be to do a 'Renegotiate and Extend' with Turner. So, they need to send enough outgoing money to get that deal done. For instance, if they send out $10mm in a Collins deal, they can use the cap room to renegotiate Turner to $28mm this season and extend based on that number. I have no idea what Turner is asking for, but I'm going to assume sending out $10mm in the Collins deal gets you in the neighborhood.
I could see Atlanta ending up with LeVert-plus in a deal for Collins. LeVert wipes the salary off the books for the new front office team. They need something that looks and smells like an asset to sell to their fans. Indy has draft capital...18, 24 (Cleveland), 30 (Boston) and 31 (Houston 2nd). There is also some willingness to move on from Duarte...maybe he is the developmental guy who is still there after LeVert expires and you add some of the Indy draft capital.
So, I've got THJ to Cleveland, LeVert/Duarte and a pick from Indy and the Cleveland second to Atlanta and Collins to Indy.
The Collins to Indy part is obvious and the THJ to Cleveland part is rumored. The question is what does Dallas get for THJ and what else does Indy send out to get the Turner money right? To me, the benefit of moving THJ is opening up PT for Green and Hardy. So, it probably needs to be PG's and Big's as the incoming.
I like your creativity.
Doing a Turner renegotiation-and-extend would definitely factor into a Collins-to-Indy deal which uses Indy cap room. But that Turner situation can go into so many different results - it can become a huge raise with a declining year-over-year, a not as big raise with an increasing year-over-year, or it could even end as a decision to (try to) sign him in the summer instead. Or, it could lead to Turner saying no to everything, and then getting traded (although, while an extend-and-trade is allowed, he can't be traded with an extension that starts with a renegotiation). Or maybe Indy lands on a decision to try to sign-and-trade him in the summer (using Bird rights and hoping for multiple suitors) and get value that way.
My point is, as complex as the Turner situation is, I think that decision is what happens FIRST for Indy. That then defines how much cap room they might have left for a Collins pursuit, and impacts how that might look. But until Turner decision is in their past, I don't think they will want to use a giant chunk of cap room for a Collins deal, lest it make the Turner situation even harder to navigate.
All of that impacts what a team might be able to extract from the Pacers, having a feel for what they are trying to do overall.
Unfortunately, if the Mavs want to get a really good deal out of this, I think the Indy situation is several layers too complex for Cuban to negotiate successfully.
(01-16-2023, 03:14 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: [ -> ]Thoughts on a frontcourt of Wood and Reid?
I like Reid. It´s a tough call. 6´9, 264 pounds, not exactly your prototypcial new NBA center. Could also be another Richaun Holmes situation. You like the idea till you pay him $10-12M a year to be a starter. Could also grow into a 18/8 with 1.5 block type of player.
I´d rather shuffle Powell + Bullock + McGee+ future 1st to the Pacers for Turner/Bitadze before I pay Reid + McGee $16-18M.
Just feels like Wood/Turner/Bitadze are a much better combination than Wood/Reid/Powell.
Honestly think this makes a ton of sense as a frontcourt. You got three good rebounders. You got three good shotblockers. You got three good three point shooters. You got size. You got floor spacing. You get strength and a little crazy edge with Bitadze. And crazily Myles Turner is just 26 years old. That honestly shocked the sh*t out of me. To me that is a complete frontcourt. Now you just nurture this frontcourt core with minimum contracts and draft picks.
That imho gets us within one All-Star guard (LOL Brunson) of contending for a championship.
Doncic/Dinwiddie
THJ/Hardy
DFS/Green
Wood/Kleber
Turner/Bitadze
(01-16-2023, 03:37 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]I like Reid. It´s a tough call. 6´9, 264 pounds, not exactly your prototypcial new NBA center. Could also be another Richaun Holmes situation. You like the idea till you pay him $10-12M a year to be a starter. Could also grow into a 18/8 with 1.5 block type of player.
I´d rather shuffle Powell + Bullock + McGee+ future 1st to the Pacers for Turner/Bitadze before I pay Reid + McGee $16-18M.
Just feels like Wood/Turner/Bitadze are a much better combination than Wood/Reid/Powell.
Honestly think this makes a ton of sense as a frontcourt. You got three good rebounders. You got three good shotblockers. You got three good three point shooters. You got size. You got floor spacing. You get strength and a little crazy edge with Bitadze. And crazily Myles Turner is just 26 years old. That honestly shocked the sh*t out of me. To me that is a complete frontcourt. Now you just nurture this frontcourt core with minimum contracts and draft picks.
That imho gets us within one All-Star guard (LOL Brunson) of contending for a championship.
Doncic/Dinwiddie
THJ/Hardy
DFS/Green
Wood/Kleber
Turner/Bitadze
What is it you see in Bitadze? He's been a spare this year. Averaging under 10 minutes...
(01-16-2023, 03:29 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I like your creativity.
Doing a Turner renegotiation-and-extend would definitely factor into a Collins-to-Indy deal which uses Indy cap room. But that Turner situation can go into so many different results - it can become a huge raise with a declining year-over-year, a not as big raise with an increasing year-over-year, or it could even end as a decision to (try to) sign him in the summer instead. Or, it could lead to Turner saying no to everything, and then getting traded (although, while an extend-and-trade is allowed, he can't be traded with an extension that starts with a renegotiation). Or maybe Indy lands on a decision to try to sign-and-trade him in the summer (using Bird rights and hoping for multiple suitors) and get value that way.
My point is, as complex as the Turner situation is, I think that decision is what happens FIRST for Indy. That then defines how much cap room they might have left for a Collins pursuit, and impacts how that might look. But until Turner decision is in their past, I don't think they will want to use a giant chunk of cap room for a Collins deal, lest it make the Turner situation even harder to navigate.
All of that impacts what a team might be able to extract from the Pacers, having a feel for what they are trying to do overall.
Unfortunately, if the Mavs want to get a really good deal out of this, I think the Indy situation is several layers too complex for Cuban to negotiate successfully.
Mavs would basically need Turner to commit to Dallas. He tried in the past, if you believe the reports. Allegedly it failed due to Cuban´s dislike to sign/acquire talented players that want to play in Dallas.
If Turner says Dallas only, I guess a 1st should do the job, despite our lack of capspace. I think that is a good investment, cause I have a hard time believing in these mythical star player trades, where the going rate is 3-4 first round picks, plus a talented young player, plus some medium turn cap relief. We cannot even put together such a package let alone outbid the competition.
(01-16-2023, 02:37 PM)Nowitzki Way Wrote: [ -> ]Reading Tea Leaves trade idea. Amazingly well thought out idea DanS.
I'm all for trading Hardaway. And dont see his value being very high. But I think i'd just take the Levert and the 2nd rounder option.
But you could tempt me on the "younger guys" option. I. Jackson and Nembhard are young and contributing. Adding those guys to our small list of young players (Green / Hardy) and we may be onto something.
I think the key to this is figuring out the true cost of John Collins minus the benefit of a LeVert rental. Without the LeVert part, Atlanta would need to take back near-matching salary from Indy (like Theis and McConnell) to leave room for Indy to deal with Turner. That salary may or may not be expiring and may or may not be attached to a useful player. LeVert provides both and with more size than McConnell next to Trae.
You read things about Atlanta wanting to be paid for Collins and you also read things about other teams expecting to be paid to take Collins. So, it is really difficult to call. All Dallas is doing here is inserting itself into the Indy-Atlanta deal with a useful but expiring contract. The base of the deal is really between the two of them with something coming from someone to compensate Dallas for THJ. So, what does the Collins deal look like without Dallas and how do you peel back some of that to Dallas.
I could see Theis being someone who helps here in Maxi's absence and only has a year guaranteed after that. I could see Dallas wanting a younger guard with some distribution skills (so either Duarte or Nembhard). That doesn't feel like enough for THJ, so maybe we swap the Cleveland 2nd for one of the late firsts Indy has. Maybe Bitadze gets added too and we cut Pinson (mainly to make Killer happy). It also wouldn't shock me to see a McGee stretch-waive if we did something that brought in another big. Like I said before, too many moving parts to nail down a specific deal. But it feels like there is something here that could satisfy all four teams.
(01-16-2023, 03:42 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: [ -> ]What is it you see in Bitadze? He's been a spare this year. Averaging under 10 minutes...
I see a guy that outplayed Jokic and Saric as an 18 year old in the same tough ABA league. Leading a rugged adults balkans league in rebounding and shotblocking by a huge margin as a teenager. A guy that has already shown he can block and rebound at an NBA level and that needs an opportunity. Real question is his health imho. But he´s just a throw in, that is cost-effective, has upside and fits perfectly into that role they designated for McGee. Strength, shotblocking and rebounding for 12-18 MPG off the bench. Plus you want a guy to protect Luka and f*** up a Morris twin if necessary....
(01-16-2023, 03:52 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I think the key to this is figuring out the true cost of John Collins minus the benefit of a LeVert rental. Without the LeVert part, Atlanta would need to take back near-matching salary from Indy (like Theis and McConnell) to leave room for Indy to deal with Turner. That salary may or may not be expiring and may or may not be attached to a useful player. LeVert provides both and with more size than McConnell next to Trae.
You read things about Atlanta wanting to be paid for Collins and you also read things about other teams expecting to be paid to take Collins. So, it is really difficult to call. All Dallas is doing here is inserting itself into the Indy-Atlanta deal with a useful but expiring contract. The base of the deal is really between the two of them with something coming from someone to compensate Dallas for THJ. So, what does the Collins deal look like without Dallas and how do you peel back some of that to Dallas.
I could see Theis being someone who helps here in Maxi's absence and only has a year guaranteed after that. I could see Dallas wanting a younger guard with some distribution skills (so either Duarte or Nembhard). That doesn't feel like enough for THJ, so maybe we swap the Cleveland 2nd for one of the late firsts Indy has. Maybe Bitadze gets added too and we cut Pinson (mainly to make Killer happy). It also wouldn't shock me to see a McGee stretch-waive if we did something that brought in another big. Like I said before, too many moving parts to nail down a specific deal. But it feels like there is something here that could satisfy all four teams.
Isn´t Theis out at least the whole year, which complicates the deal imho.
I think Atlanta wants cost-effective players, so I think Jalen Smith would be a natural trade candidate, if the Pacers rate John Collins much higher. They are more or less the same type of player, but Smith is much cheaper, which clearly is a huge factor for the Hawks. Smith has been in and out of the starting line-up in Indiana, so I think it´s fair to say, Carlisle is not that attached to him.
As FG said Turner is likely the first piece. If he commits to the Pacers, then getting Collins makes a lot of sense, cause you are really going to be good team short-termish. If you lose Turner, then trading Collins for Smith really leaves you pretty much nowhere. Then you might as well keep your massive capspace and Jalen Smith´s cheap contract.
(01-16-2023, 03:29 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I like your creativity.
Doing a Turner renegotiation-and-extend would definitely factor into a Collins-to-Indy deal which uses Indy cap room. But that Turner situation can go into so many different results - it can become a huge raise with a declining year-over-year, a not as big raise with an increasing year-over-year, or it could even end as a decision to (try to) sign him in the summer instead. Or, it could lead to Turner saying no to everything, and then getting traded (although, while an extend-and-trade is allowed, he can't be traded with an extension that starts with a renegotiation). Or maybe Indy lands on a decision to try to sign-and-trade him in the summer (using Bird rights and hoping for multiple suitors) and get value that way.
My point is, as complex as the Turner situation is, I think that decision is what happens FIRST for Indy. That then defines how much cap room they might have left for a Collins pursuit, and impacts how that might look. But until Turner decision is in their past, I don't think they will want to use a giant chunk of cap room for a Collins deal, lest it make the Turner situation even harder to navigate.
All of that impacts what a team might be able to extract from the Pacers, having a feel for what they are trying to do overall.
Unfortunately, if the Mavs want to get a really good deal out of this, I think the Indy situation is several layers too complex for Cuban to negotiate successfully.
Thanks. They have been in talks with Duffy and Co., so Indy probably has a pretty good idea what number it would take to make them happy.
I listen with interest to Carlisle talking about no desire to trade Turner and wonder who his intended audience is. It certainly could be the media and other teams, but I wonder if he's not talking to his own front office who so far hasn't gotten the job done with Turner. Indy is about $15mm under the floor. Seems they could at least use that money up now in a renegotiation with Turner. That gets him to $33mm this season and you figure out where to go from there.
If they use the $15mm to get to the floor that way, there is still $12mm or so under the cap to work with on a Collins deal. So, they need to send out $11.5mm or more in a deal for Collins using space instead of trade matching. That isn't hard to do at all with some to Dallas and potentially some to Atlanta (Collins for LeVert leaves Atlanta $5.9mm under the tax). I think even Cuban could figure this out. But if not, didn't he hire some fancy-pants cap expert when Nico came on-board?
(01-16-2023, 03:59 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Isn´t Theis out at least the whole year, which complicates the deal imho.
I think Atlanta wants cost-effective players, so I think Jalen Smith would be a natural trade candidate, if the Pacers rate John Collins much higher. They are more or less the same type of player, but Smith is much cheaper, which clearly is a huge factor for the Hawks. Smith has been in and out of the starting line-up in Indiana, so I think it´s fair to say, Carlisle is not that attached to him.
As FG said Turner is likely the first piece. If he commits to the Pacers, then getting Collins makes a lot of sense, cause you are really going to be good team short-termish. If you lose Turner, then trading Collins for Smith really leaves you pretty much nowhere. Then you might as well keep your massive capspace and Jalen Smith´s cheap contract.
I think I read Theis is close to returning (convenient timing).
Smith and LeVert to Atlanta leaves them just under the LT, so that works.
All of this is predicated on Turner staying (which I think makes sense for him and for Indy). There is plenty of room to get him done if both sides want to.
Building on your Smith to Atlanta deal (and desire to bring Bitadze here...which I agree with). It could be:
THJ to Cleveland
LeVert and J. Smith and picks to Atlanta (leaving them under the tax)
Collins to Indy
Bitadze and Duarte to Dallas
INTERESTINGLY...that combination allows Indy to go to Turner's max for 22/23 ($37.1) with pennies to spare.
(01-16-2023, 03:52 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Without the LeVert part, Atlanta would need to take back near-matching salary from Indy (like Theis and McConnell) to leave room for Indy to deal with Turner. That salary may or may not be expiring and may or may not be attached to a useful player.
Having Lavert available certainly is an avenue to making ATL happy, maybe. But other players can provide the same salary-match, so they might be even happier by getting whatever is being sent to Dallas.
And it's also possible a Collins-to-Indy deal might NOT include much of a salary match, depending on what Indy decides with Turner -- Indy could send Duarte for Collins and still have over $8M in room to renegotiate a raise-and-extend with Turner. If my math and CBA is right, they could offer 5 years including this one, with something like $150M total (with 4 years/$132M of it being new). When I think about who Turner is and what I'd want to pay, that actually seems like too
much, not too little, and I doubt Turner would be getting bigger offers in the summer from another team. (It would take a deal starting at almost $31M.)
(01-16-2023, 03:05 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...5665828867
Sorry if I'm out of touch, but are we sure Nerlens "Hot Dog" Noel's headcase days are behind him? I mean this is the genius who turned down $70MM to go sign vet minimums for a few years.
Any reason this isn't the second coming of Lamar Odom?
(01-16-2023, 04:26 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Having Lavert available certainly is an avenue to making ATL happy, maybe. But other players can provide the same salary-match, so they might be even happier by getting whatever is being sent to Dallas.
And it's also possible a Collins-to-Indy deal might NOT include much of a salary match, depending on what Indy decides with Turner -- Indy could send Duarte for Collins and still have over $8M in room to renegotiate a raise-and-extend with Turner. If my math and CBA is right, they could offer 5 years including this one, with something like $150M total (with 4 years/$142M of it being new). When I think about who Turner is and what I'd want to pay, that actually seems like too much, not too little, and I doubt Turner would be getting bigger offers in the summer. (It would take a deal starting at over $33M.)
If you want to give Indy access to all possible avenues you mentioned earlier with Turner, you do the deal that is listed above this post. J Smith, Duarte and Bitadze outgoing for Collins gets Indy to Turner's Max renegotiation amount for the current season (if my math is right).
If we agree that Indy needs to get Turner to that number to keep open all possibilities, the question you are asking is whether Atlanta would prefer Bitadze/Duarte vs. LeVert (since I already have Smith going to Atlanta in the post I'm referencing). Given the centers they have, I don't see Atlanta wanting Bitadze. With Hunter moving to PF, they probably want LeVert more than Duarte from a size standpoint.
To your point, it doesn't have to be that combo of players to get Turner's renegotiation to $37mm. But, that combo of players works and kind of makes sense for both teams. Thanks to you and 2021 for helping me clarify my thinking. Indy just has so many PF types that it was hard to come up with a combo I like. I agree with 2021's evaluation of Bitadze's potential. GS reportedly prioritized Duarte over Moody in that draft. I get that this is a step back in 22/23, but it adds to the youngsters that could be used in the NEXT trade. What is the word I'm looking for.....oh yeah, flexibility.
(01-16-2023, 04:40 PM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]Sorry if I'm out of touch, but are we sure Nerlens "Hot Dog" Noel's headcase days are behind him? I mean this is the genius who turned down $70MM to go sign vet minimums for a few years.
Any reason this isn't the second coming of Lamar Odom?
Is he suicidial with a major drug addiction? Hot Dogs are not healthy, but they are not cocaine.
Also we are probably talking McGee + 2nd round pick + cash type of stuff, which is amazing in itself.
Considering that this could have been accomplished in a Brunson for Noel/Burks trade in the summer and probably netted us one or two 2nd round picks.
And a healthy Burks is a really good player. Averaging 14 PPG off the bench in just 22 minutes, shooting 45% from three this year.
Haha this is all so stupid.
Cuban should have a whole skyscraper wall in downtown Dallas painted with all the stupid stuff he did.
DanS
1 I went back and checked my numbers and FYI edited into my post on Turner.
2 I understand your point, but I think you are missing mine in your response.
... You keep focusing on how Indy can have MAX cap room for a renegotiation. But, why the max???
... I'm not convinced that $37M starting salary is likely to be his market in the summer. Or even close to it. He's a center, who is a decent but not great rebounder, not a two-way wing who creates offense.
3 So when you show how Indy can give Turner 37M this season (his max this season) as part of a new deal, I am seriously wondering about their NEED to do that.
.... I'm not saying the answer is Never. But because I don't think he would get anywhere near $37M plus raises in the summer, I think there might be lots of other ways (besides having to pay him 37M this year) to skin the same cat of getting him a deal he would be worth.
.... Probably part of the analysis is answering what sort of number he might get as a FA. I'm thinking it's WAYYYYY more likely to start with a 2 than a 3.
(01-16-2023, 05:13 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]DanS
1 I went back and checked my numbers and FYI edited into my post on Turner.
2 I understand your point, but I think you are missing mine in your response.
... You keep focusing on how Indy can have MAX cap room for a renegotiation. But, why the max???
... I'm not convinced that $37M starting salary is likely to be his market in the summer. Or even close to it. He's a center, who is a decent but not great rebounder, not a two-way wing who creates offense.
3 So when you show how Indy can give Turner 37M this season (his max this season) as part of a new deal, I am seriously wondering about their NEED to do that.
.... I'm not saying the answer is Never. But because I don't think he would get anywhere near $37M plus raises in the summer, I think there might be lots of other ways (besides having to pay him 37M this year) to skin the same cat of getting him a deal he would be worth.
.... Probably part of the analysis is answering what sort of number he might get as a FA. I'm thinking it's WAYYYYY more likely to start with a 2 than a 3.
Sorry if I've not been clear. I'm not trying to get Turner to $37mm because I think he's worth that or will command that. I think he's probably mid 20's to upper 20's tops AAV on his next deal. Earlier you posted all the ways a renegotiate and extend could work out. One of those included overpaying Turner in 22/23 so that 1. You could use that excess now to lower the value of his future deal and 2. His contract could be declining instead of appreciating over time.
I'm working under the assumption they will get something done for Turner. The entire bag of tricks is open to them if they bring in Collins in a way that keeps them enough under the cap that they can add $19mm of space to his existing $18mm salary (thus $37mm) or as close to it as possible. If the goal is to make both Turner and Collins work, then it probably isn't one then the other. It is probably knowing how to get to both before you do either. I'm simply trying to look forward to a deal that keeps all avenues open with Turner while simultaneously negotiating with teams regarding Collins.