MavsBoard

(01-11-2023, 03:36 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see how making MIA better in such a deal DR-THJ is a plus for Mavs. It sure doesn't look like that deal improves the Mavs nor enhances their future.

The trade as proposed doesn't free up the 2025 pick for a TDL deal. You'd have to land a pick in not only 2023 but also 2024 and 2025. The only other avenue is to unlock the pick to NY. I really think the Mavs will just wait, rather than deal with all that. 

And it's not like they need to do that in general. It has no value to them at all unless they have a blockbuster TDL deal (right now, about to happen) that is on the table and only contingent on a 2023-25-27 set of picks without contingencies.

I agree with this.  If the heat took McGee's contract then mayyyybe I could be talked into it but it would only make sense if the Mavs:

A) thought the could land another young asset late in this draft to pair with Green and Hardy as developmental assets and then shop 25 and 27.

B) wanted to set themselves up to trade 3 picks on draft night (finalized after the fact like the Wood deal so the Knicks pick legally conveys) that all happen to be within Luka's contract

I don't think either of those options are worth taking on DR.  That dude signed and retired.

(01-11-2023, 03:36 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see how making MIA better in such a deal DR-THJ is a plus for Mavs. It sure doesn't look like that deal improves the Mavs nor enhances their future.

The trade as proposed doesn't free up the 2025 pick for a TDL deal. You'd have to land a pick in not only 2023 but also 2024 and 2025. The only other avenue is to unlock the pick to NY. I really think the Mavs will just wait, rather than deal with all that. 

And it's not like they need to do that in general. It has no value to them at all unless they have a blockbuster TDL deal (right now, about to happen) that is on the table and only contingent on a 2023-25-27 set of picks without contingencies.

I agree. Pretty convinced that if this is/was a real thing, the interest from the Mavs' side has to be about Lowry (or maybe Herro). No idea whether or not Miami would be interested, but I just can't see the Mavs taking on Duncan Robinson. He is the exact opposite of what they need in pretty much every way. 

Another shooter who can't shoot (nope)
A less flexible cap sheet, from a position where they're already paying tax (nope)
A new candidate for "worst defender on the team" (nope)
Less ball-handling than they have now with Hardaway (nope)

I can almost see it from an angle of draft capital accumulation, but that assumes that Miami views this swap as worth a significant piece of capital (which would quash any hopes we might have of salvaging Robinson into anything remotely usable) and it also assumes that Dallas would be willing to sell a rotation player, not get one back (Robinson probably wouldn't even play after about a month here) and make the way forward even tougher, flexibility wise, all for the sake of draft capital. This type of move would only make sense if it were the precursor to 1-3 others just like it, and we're talking about Mark Cuban who has basically never, ever thought like that. I can't see it, personally. 

I CAN see the Mavs, desperate to find a replacement for Brunson right now, this season, viewing either Lowry or Herro as that guy and trying to talk Miami into taking Hardaway back as the basis of a trade, probably with draft capital going the other direction. I don't think it will happen, but that makes much more sense to me.

(01-11-2023, 03:44 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]B) wanted to set themselves up to trade 3 picks on draft night (finalized after the fact like the Wood deal so the Knicks pick legally conveys) that all happen to be within Luka's contract

But the MIA trade as proposed wouldn't ensure the Knicks pick legally conveys.

(01-11-2023, 03:52 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I agree. Pretty convinced that if this is/was a real thing, the interest from the Mavs' side has to be about Lowry (or maybe Herro). No idea whether or not Miami would be interested, but I just can't see the Mavs taking on Duncan Robinson. He is the exact opposite of what they need in pretty much every way. 

Another shooter who can't shoot (nope)
A less flexible cap sheet, from a position where they're already paying tax (nope)
A new candidate for "worst defender on the team" (nope)
Less ball-handling than they have now with Hardaway (nope)

I can almost see it from an angle of draft capital accumulation, but that assumes that Miami views this swap as worth a significant piece of capital (which would quash any hopes we might have of salvaging Robinson into anything remotely usable) and it also assumes that Dallas would be willing to sell a rotation player, not get one back (Robinson probably wouldn't even play after about a month here) and make the way forward even tougher, flexibility wise, all for the sake of draft capital. This type of move would only make sense if it were the precursor to 1-3 others just like it, and we're talking about Mark Cuban who has basically never, ever thought like that. I can't see it, personally. 

I CAN see the Mavs, desperate to find a replacement for Brunson right now, this season, viewing either Lowry or Herro as that guy and trying to talk Miami into taking Hardaway back as the basis of a trade, probably with draft capital going the other direction. I don't think it will happen, but that makes much more sense to me.

This makes sense. I doubt Mia is interested in offloading Herro.. Not sure to feel about him? Would he be good enough defensively to be a long term fit next to Luka?  Interesting nugget on trading for him though....


Tyler Herro is on a rookie contract and signed an extension that is to begin the following season. Therefore, he has what is known as a "poison pill" contract. He can no longer be traded for a player making equal money. Instead, his current salary is averaged along with the salaries he is to receive in his extension, and that average becomes his incoming salary for trade purposes. His outgoing value for the Heat will be $5.7M while his incoming value for the receiving team will be $25.1M.

I did come up with something that works. 

DAL receives - Herro, Lowry, Caleb Martin
Mia receives - THJ, DFS, CWood, Ntlikina

I just haven't watched enough Herro to have a strong opinion on his value long term.

(01-11-2023, 04:06 PM)Okstate819 Wrote: [ -> ]I just haven't watched enough Herro to have a strong opinion on his value long term.

He has flashes of greatness, but since his first couple of seasons they have become much less frequent. I think he's damn near at "buy low" point, especially taking the contract into consideration. 

I can for sure imagine (don't know, but can imagine) that the Heat don't want him on this extension. It's possible. 

I can for sure imagine Cuban seeing the advantage in lowering his tax bill this year (based on the contract nugget you just provided) and then "worrying about next year...next year". That seems uncomfortably plausible to me. 

I can for sure imagine the Mavs thinking there's a chance Herro is the replacement for Brunson they might think they need. 

Unfortunately, I can also imagine the "worry about it next year" part resulting in Powell and Wood both coming off of the books and signing somewhere else. @"F Gump" or @"DanSchwartzgan" or @"Kammrath" would have to confirm, but as soon as you gave us that tidbit about his extension not kicking in until next year my brain went right to this season's Mavs tax bill and it suddenly felt more possible to me. 

The thing is, if Miami is willing to move on, Herro probably isn't going to be worth that contract. That's the sad part of this fantasy.

(01-11-2023, 04:06 PM)Okstate819 Wrote: [ -> ]I just haven't watched enough Herro to have a strong opinion on his value long term.

Herro from what I've watched reminds me of a shittier version of a young Ray Allen. Maybe on the same level as Jordan Poole, if not slightly better. I don't think he has the same sort of potential star power that Allen had, and a team that has to rely on Herro to be the 1st option won't be going anywhere. 

But he's definitely talented. He can pass, create, and even rebound. He's a deadeye shooter and can breakdown defenders to get to the basket. 

But I wouldn't call him a star. He's a step below that. He'd instantly be the 2nd best player here though. That's for sure.

As long as it didn't interfere financially with the longterm situations with Wood, Powell, etc, a Hardaway for Herro swap would be a huge boon for the Mavs. I might even be ok with throwing Green or Hardy into that one. 

It would drive @"Kammrath" and "team wing span" craaaaaazy, however. Dude is horizontally challenged, to put it mildly.

Before trying to figure out a work-around for his poison pill status, I have to ask if it's worth the bother. I haven't heard any rumors that MIA is wanting to get rid of Herro. His numbers look EXCELLENT to me. He's a starter. Where is this from? Or is it just being invented for the THJ discussion?

(01-11-2023, 04:25 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Before trying to figure out a work-around for his poison pill status, I have to ask if it's worth the bother. I haven't heard any rumors that MIA is wanting to get rid of Herro. His numbers look EXCELLENT to me. He's a starter. Where is this from? Or is it just being invented for the THJ discussion?

There were some early rumblings in the offseason that Miami was trying to use Herro as the basis for a much bigger deal, for someone like Bradley Beal or Donovan Mitchell. But they never materialized. 

But other than that there hasn't been anything. I think we're all just trying to make sense of the THJ to Miami tidbit as it's a strange rumor. It has legs as in that THJ has been linked to Miami for a while and he has a need there, but there really isn't a good fit for anyone (save unrealistic guys like Herro or Bam), for the Mavs.

(01-11-2023, 04:25 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Before trying to figure out a work-around for his poison pill status, I have to ask if it's worth the bother. I haven't heard any rumors that MIA is wanting to get rid of Herro. His numbers look EXCELLENT to me. He's a starter. Where is this from? Or is it just being invented for the THJ discussion?

No, it's probably just a waste of time and not worth the bother at all.

It probably may not make us better and spinning our wheels, but I think I could get behind a Hardaway to Clev, Levert to Utah and Conley to the Mavs?  Is that crazy?

Dallas balances out our roster a bit.   Luka, Din, and Conley are our 3 creators.  Jaden gets leftover developmental minutes.    DFS & Green get 3 and 4 minutes.   Maxi picks up when he returns.   If you still have Bullock, he fills in as well.   Although, maybe you can move him for a bigger player.   Wood and Powell get the 5 minutes.   

Utah gets off Conley with no damage.  Probably for the best for them and they don't need to use an asset to do so.

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(01-11-2023, 04:25 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Before trying to figure out a work-around for his poison pill status, I have to ask if it's worth the bother. I haven't heard any rumors that MIA is wanting to get rid of Herro. His numbers look EXCELLENT to me. He's a starter. Where is this from? Or is it just being invented for the THJ discussion?

Yeah, I think Herro will be their carrot to make a big, blockbuster move.   Maybe Beal in the future.   KAT?  I think if he is moved, it will be in a big blockbuster move.

Score, Shoot, Create, Defend, Rebound

The Mavs need to find players that can check at least 2 of those boxes and 3/5 is where you really want to get.  The current roster is so devoid of multi-faceted players.

Luka: 5/5 when he engages, still 4/5 if he sleep walks
CWood: Have seen him be anywhere from 0/5 to 4/5 with creating being the one thing missing (but not needed)
Spence: 3/5, doesn't defend or rebound...and isn't consistent as a solo creator but beggars, choosers and all
Reggie: 0/5 way too often this year, 2/5 when he's going well
DFS: Better version of Reggie
THJ: 1/5, shooter
Maxi: 2/5, can't rebound or do anything with the basketball
Powell: 0/5 but does bring intangibles, a big can just check defense/rebounding box and be ok...DP just too limited.  I will give him credit as a hard working team defender with zero rim protection.

McGee was supposed to be a 2/5 big
Bertans is a 1/5 shooter

Hardy and Green are the only two potential upside pieces.  At Green's absolute best he is probably a 3/5 (shoot, defend, create) but that's giving him a lot of credit for his potential as a creator (and really more just as a passer).  Hardy is probably also a 3/5 (score, shoot, create) at his best.

If you can move a 1/5 THJ for something that gives you a more well rounded player, then you do it.  This roster needs guys that bring more than 1-2 things to the table.

(01-11-2023, 04:22 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]It would drive @Kammrath and "team wing span" craaaaaazy, however. Dude is horizontally challenged, to put it mildly.

(01-11-2023, 03:33 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]Been trying to wrap my head around this.  Wouldn't the protection STILL mess with this? 

Yeah, I got carried away in my haste to post in a small window of time.

Having an unprotected first from Miami counts as our 23.  It doesn’t have to be ours.  But, you are correct that we would have to unprotect the NY pick to be able to trade 25 and 27 now.  

Speaking to the board in general now…I feel like Miami needs THJ to sub for injured Robinson more than they need the pick.  The question is whether Dallas has something lined up that requires picks in 23, 25 and 27.  For instance, you probably don’t eat Robinson for THJ (this season or long term) for just a pick.  But, if I told you that pick was the difference in getting Siakam or not?  Yeah, I do what I can to get that pick…including the downgrade from THJ to DR.  

There are all sorts of ways to juice the Dallas side.  Maybe it is pick plus something else.  I mentioned Jovic (leave out the Hardy part if you want) and a McGee/Dedmon swap.  Maybe it is multiple things.  Maybe Jovic goes to Toronto.  The good news is Miami probably needs this to happen sooner than later given the Robinson surgery.  

I really don’t think this is Lowry centric.  They have no way to replace him and what he does.  As FGump points out, Herro is playing well.  We’d be paying A LOT to do a THJ/Herro swap (and we don’t have A LOT to give).  And that is before you consider the Poison Pill aspect of this.  Robinson is all that’s left, but to me, he is more a means to and end (a bigger deal to come) than a target in and of himself.

Trying to catch up on this thread and seeing Duncan Robinson for THJ rumors.

(01-11-2023, 12:51 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]Hardaway/Bullock for Lowry + 2023 FRP with protections works

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Also, Miami fans on reddit are saying this guy is not a reliable source at all so take that for what it's worth.

There is no way Miami is sending a first, but I might pull that trigger anyways.  We get our third rotational playmaker who still plays defense despite his height and age, and that contract will be perfect for trading next season.  Also means more minutes for Green and Hardy.

Also, it would be a crazy redo of two offseasons ago.  They wanted Lowry and punted with Timmy and Bullock.

Looking at the responses I probably rate Duncan Robinson higher than most posters on this board. His defense will always be a problem but I think the declining shooting percentages are more of a team issue. They only have two guys shooting above league average from 3-point range this season.

Spacing is off and they aren´t able to generate clean looks for their shooters. Butler isn´t a drive and kick threat that collapses defenses. Adebayo isn´t drawing double teams in the paint. Age caught up with Lowry and he isn´t able to penetrate like he used to. And after they torched the league with a number of creative set plays during the bubble run opposing teams caught up and learned how to defend them.

I think a first round pick in return is a fair compensation for taking on his contract. And having a pick in the next draft would make me feel a lot better about trades that involve future picks. At least leaves them with a small foundation of players on rookie contracts (Hardy, Green, 2023 1st round pick) that could somewhat compensate the lack of incoming young talent after the Mavs gave up future picks in a blockbuster trade.
Extra years on Robinson´s contract don´t scare me. Not like capspace is a realistic scenario anyway. Obviously could be an issue if Cuban is trying to avoid the luxury tax. But if that is the driving force behind roster decisions the Mavs are screwed anyway.

(01-11-2023, 06:09 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at the responses I probably rate Duncan Robinson higher than most posters on this board. His defense will always be a problem but I think the declining shooting percentages are more of a team issue. They only have two guys shooting above league average from 3-point range this season.

Let's say you're right, and he can rebound from this funk. 

Does this current Mavs offense look like it's set up to feature a "run around off-ball screens, quick release, Redick style shooter" to you? If so, I'd think they'd be doing those things already for Hardaway. 

So, if they're not going to do that, and he can't handle or play defense, we're talking about someone people here would hate way more than Hardaway, given time. My opinion.

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I think Robinson might be almost as useful here as Bertans. If they do it, I hope I'm wrong.

(01-11-2023, 06:14 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Let's say you're right, and he can rebound from this funk. 

Does this current Mavs offense look like it's set up to feature a "run around off-ball screens, quick release, Redick style shooter" to you? If so, I'd think they'd be doing those things already for Hardaway. 

So, if they're not going to do that, and he can't handle or play defense, we're talking about someone people here would hate way more than Hardaway, given time. My opinion.

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I think Robinson might be almost as useful here as Bertans. If they do it, I hope I'm wrong.

I think they aren´t doing it for THJ because he simply isn´t a great off balance shooter. Bertans is getting some off screen plays called for him when he is on the floor.
I don´t think the team would miss a beat if you exchange both.

But that´s obviously not what the trade would be all about. It´s not a win now move to improve the team this season. All about setting up the team for the future. It seems like most media guys and board members expect the Mavs to make a big trade. And I would really like to add some cheap and young talent before they throw away the chance to do that for at least the next 5-6 years.

Even with Robinson instead of THJ on the payroll the age and salary structure of the team would look a lot better with another first round pick on the team.

(01-11-2023, 06:47 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]But that´s obviously not what the trade would be all about. It´s not a win now move to improve the team this season. All about setting up the team for the future. It seems like most media guys and board members expect the Mavs to make a big trade. And I would really like to add some cheap and young talent before they throw away the chance to do that for at least the next 5-6 years.

Even with Robinson instead of THJ on the payroll the age and salary structure of the team would look a lot better with another first round pick on the team.

Sure, I guess. The contract kills it for me, personally, but I see where you're coming from and I'm one of the only people who'd feel like the Mavs were actually giving something up in Hardaway. 

But, I'm sorry, I just don't even think it's worth thinking that way from our perspective because I don't believe the Mavs are thinking that way. Maybe they might try to snag a first if they want to send it right out the door in a bigger deal, but they have just never, ever shown a desire to collect draft capital.

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(01-11-2023, 06:47 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Bertans is getting some off screen plays called for him when he is on the floor.

This is true, I admit. I wish they'd just do it more for Hardaway.