MavsBoard

(12-22-2022, 11:43 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]No chance I give a 1st for Crowder. 

I would give ONE 1st for Ayton, but if I have to give more than one 1st then frankly I would rather run with Wood as my center.

We couldn't be farther apart on this.

Ayton has shown he can be apart of winning basketball at literally the highest level. He has a higher career scoring average than Wood. Literally the only thing Wood does better than Ayton is stretch the floor. 

In a world where Gobert goes for 5 firsts and Mitchell and Murray for 3 firsts, getting Ayton along with a 3-D wing for 2 firsts is a highway robbery.

(12-22-2022, 11:48 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]In a world where Gobert goes for 5 firsts and Mitchell and Murray for 3 firsts

I think that world is wrong and will correct itself eventually. I value a 1st WAY MORE than teams currently do. I would rather keep my picks then sell them off. For instance, Crowder for a 1st is literally laughable to me.

I appreciate the thoughts about Ayton. They don’t track with the preconceptions I’m coming to the conversation with, but I don’t feel I’m familiar enough with his game yet to be super confident in my opinions.

I’m going to be checking him out whenever I get a chance in the near future.

If he’s truly the defensive difference maker some are saying, that would move the needle for me. However, I feel like one of the things we have learned is that any big who is limited to being a rim roller on offense might just kind of be a dead end. I have never really watched Ayton and thought of him as a good defender or a good post scorer, but again, I want to investigate further based on some of what I’m reading here.

A new owner doesn´t (immediately) trade his 2nd best player. Sometimes you need to read a situation before entering useless trade discussions.

(12-23-2022, 02:59 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]A new owner doesn´t (immediately) trade his 2nd best player. Sometimes you need to read a situation before entering useless trade discussions.

A good point.

(12-23-2022, 02:59 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]A new owner doesn´t (immediately) trade his 2nd best player. Sometimes you need to read a situation before entering useless trade discussions.

Depends on his goals. Maybe he wants to build a team in his vision. Maybe he doesn't want to be spending 30+mil for a center that isn't an all-star.  Maybe Ayton's discontent about being on the team is causing locker room issues that he'd rather not deal with.

LOTS of reasons why a new owner would cut ties with his 2nd best player. 

In fact, HOU was sold to Fertitta at the beginning of the 2017-2018 season, 1 season later they traded CP3. Just saying it happens.

(12-23-2022, 11:55 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Depends on his goals. Maybe he wants to build a team in his vision. Maybe he doesn't want to be spending 30+mil for a center that isn't an all-star.  Maybe Ayton's discontent about being on the team is causing locker room issues that he'd rather not deal with.

LOTS of reasons why a new owner would cut ties with his 2nd best player. 

In fact, HOU was sold to Fertitta at the beginning of the 2017-2018 season, 1 season later they traded CP3. Just saying it happens.

Totally, we have no way of knowing how the franchise sale will affect the team's contractual situation, but @"Mavs2021"'s reminder that it will is good, I think. 

Is the new owner an Arizona guy? I assume so, but don't know. If memory serves, Ayton is an Arizona star, collegiately. There are so many factors that could influence things here.

(12-23-2022, 11:55 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Depends on his goals. Maybe he wants to build a team in his vision. Maybe he doesn't want to be spending 30+mil for a center that isn't an all-star.  Maybe Ayton's discontent about being on the team is causing locker room issues that he'd rather not deal with.

LOTS of reasons why a new owner would cut ties with his 2nd best player. 

This.

I am not saying a new owner WILL trade Ayton, but it is very possible, especially considering his malcontent for years.

This is insanity.  Collins in on the decline.  Has anyone seen him play this year?  Wood is a much better player.  The answer is someone like OG, not Collins.

I'm getting more and more amenable to this Ayton thing as time passes (which means it's a waste of time, because what I want to see happen almost never does). 

I'm still a little concerned about giving up first round picks for a player who can't really create offense for himself and others. As @"omahen" said yesterday, that's what they need more than anything else, and if they do another big draft capital deal for another big who will end up being a complementary player (albeit a much better one than my initial reaction assumed yesterday), I can easily envision a chance that, while the center position will be figured out (we hope) the overall roster and asset cache to improve it might be far worse than it is today, even. 

Defensively, I think he helps a ton after doing some light investigating. Loads of help on that end. And, offensively, he's got the tools to be a great complementary player to Luka. I think it was @"Bayliss" who said he can't punish smaller players after switches, and I still agree with that, so I think we'd be signing up to watch a ton of Luka step back 3's against bigs (especially since Ayton can't take his man too far out of the paint). 

I don't know. Very conflicted. Tell me they can get him for one first, somehow (probably can't - two might be dreaming, the way the market has been going) and I'm in.

I also think giving up a 1st for Crowder would be nut bar factor 7 at this point. Even if we think he's worth a 1st on a contender, that would represent the Mavs losing one of their few draft capital assets to get older, while giving their direct competition, a team built around an almost 40 year old player, a much needed piece of ammo to retool a bit. 

Meanwhile, once Crowder was here, we'd all see that he'd have the same limitations that their current role players have, and I give it about 2 weeks before 60% of this board hates him. Ironically, I'd probably end up defending him at that time, lol. I think he's a good player with a little left in the tank, but that the Mavs can't afford to spend assets on "garnish" players like that, given their asset status.

Another thing to keep in mind regarding Crowder: he IS a 6'6" 4. He's not a small forward anymore, if he ever was one. I remember during his first stint with the Mavs a lot of people complained that Carlisle was playing him at the 4 (a little bit like the initial complaints about playing DFS there, only more intense, if I remember correctly). But since he left, most of his teams have played him at that same 4 position, for which he is perfectly suited (skills wise) but obviously a little small. I think this is part of why he's bounced around so much.

(12-23-2022, 12:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'm getting more and more amenable to this Ayton thing as time passes (which means it's a waste of time, because what I want to see happen almost never does). 

I'm still a little concerned about giving up first round picks for a player who can't really create offense for himself and others. As @"omahen" said yesterday, that's what they need more than anything else, and if they do another big draft capital deal for another big who will end up being a complementary player (albeit a much better one than my initial reaction assumed yesterday), I can easily envision a chance that, while the center position will be figured out (we hope) the overall roster and asset cache to improve it might be far worse than it is today, even. 

Defensively, I think he helps a ton after doing some light investigating. Loads of help on that end. And, offensively, he's got the tools to be a great complementary player to Luka. I think it was @"Bayliss" who said he can't punish smaller players after switches, and I still agree with that, so I think we'd be signing up to watch a ton of Luka step back 3's against bigs (especially since Ayton can't take his man too far out of the paint). 

I don't know. Very conflicted. Tell me they can get him for one first, somehow (probably can't - two might be dreaming, the way the market has been going) and I'm in.

I think the negatives you mention outweigh the positives.  He can't punish small players, he can't create for himself or others, and he is not a dominate defensive force.  He does not really address our biggest needs and he would be costing our most valuable assets we have (potential post Luka firsts).  That trade also makes the two picks we have left even less valuable because they are still in the Luka years and adding a young quality center (while not making us a contender) makes it much less likely we will crater.  

I don't send out those two picks unless its for a game changer, and I don't think Ayton fits that description.

(12-23-2022, 01:56 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think the negatives you mention outweigh the positives.  He can't punish small players, he can't create for himself or others, and he is not a dominate defensive force.  He does not really address our biggest needs and he would be costing our most valuable assets we have (potential post Luka firsts).  That trade also makes the two picks we have left even less valuable because they are still in the Luka years and adding a young quality center (while not making us a contender) makes it much less likely we will crater.  

I don't send out those two picks unless its for a game changer, and I don't think Ayton fits that description.

I think I'm still in your camp on this, ultimately. However, my thinking has changed on the emboldened part a little. As I've written many times in many different ways, I'm about speed, agility and intelligence to go along with length when I choose a center, but there are still many who care a lot about strength and physicality down there. I have to admit that if those folks are right to value that stuff more than I do, Ayton sure seems like a close to ideal balance of all the attributes mentioned. I wonder how long his feet will stay quick enough to be relevant, but after watching some of his highlights I think they're within the "effective range" currently. I believe he's much more effectively mobile on defense than Porzingis, for example. I think I've reached the conclusion that he'd be a game changer, defensively. 

But yeah, those two picks would stick in my craw quite a bit. Not so much on a "fair value for Ayton" scale, but definitely in a "now what" way from the Mavs' perspective once the deal is done. 

I really think it's best to hoard draft capital until an absolute no-brainer of a deal comes up. One that justifies spending more than two picks, probably. I just think we'd be miserable going through another 4-5 years with no draft capital to spend if they empty the coffers again for someone like Ayton. Still, I'm closer on this than I was yesterday, initially.

(12-23-2022, 12:06 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: [ -> ]This is insanity.  Collins in on the decline.  Has anyone seen him play this year?  Wood is a much better player.  The answer is someone like OG, not Collins.

The guy I keep coming back to (who we have no concrete reason to believe is even available, to be fair) is Paschal Siakim. 

I would spend basically any asset it took (if the Mavs even have enough) to put him next to Luka. At that point, I'm not sure the draft capital shortage would matter so much. At that point, you really could fill the team out with role players, fallen angles, MLE types, whatever, and contend, imho. 

The team needs more offensive skill above all else, and they of course need it to come in a package that can contribute at an above average level defensively. Players like that don't come cheaply, and I would so hate to have the wad blown and miss out on one of those.

To me, the next big deal the Mavs make probably IS going to require more draft capital than we feel comfortable spending, and will probably include Green, Hardy or BOTH. 

I just can't see spending that on Ayton and feeling good about it afterwards, even if I'd be excited about Ayton, the player.

So...if the most the Mavs can spend right now is two picks, Wood, Green, Hardy and a couple of mid-sized contracts attached to players the opposing team thinks they have the best chance of using/repackaging, and that package can't net a player who'd actually change the trajectory of the team, then I think the best course might be to simply not make a deal and hope to add something to that package later.

I think I would be in favor of Ayton, but I don't see it happening.   In order to do so, the team would have to feel really good about Green and Hardy moving forward (although maybe they would need to be included...and that would put me out).     They would also need to get lucky on a wing prospect.   Although, I must admit the people on the other side of the debate make compelling cases.

I just don't see OG happening.  Zach Lowe has said it won't happen but he suspects if it did the packages would be similar to the Donovan Mitchell trade.

(12-23-2022, 02:19 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I just don't see OG happening.  Zach Lowe has said it won't happen but he suspects if it did the packages would be similar to the Donovan Mitchell trade.

I agree. He's young, and much closer to Barnes' timeline. 

It's only my logic, and not reporting, so I could be way off here, but FVV and Siakim are kind of in Barnes' way a little, so if they're really thinking about reshaping their roster I'd bet those will be the first two names dangled. Who knows if they even are thinking that way, however.

(12-23-2022, 02:14 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Paschal Siakim

I have been begging for him since he was benched in 2020 and I thought TOR might want KP. 

His age is the major concern for me if you spend all your assets on him as he is about to turn 29. 

But the dude has a pretty elite impact on winning.