(12-29-2022, 12:53 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Don't have ESPN+. What's it say about Mavs?
Front-office discussions: Do we put our future first-round picks in play to target a ball handler to complement Luka Doncic? Do we do an extension with Christian Wood and what happens if he elects to enter free agency? Are there trade options for JaVale McGee?
Off the board: Doncic ($37.1M, player 2026), Maxi Kleber (extension restriction) and Kemba Walker (March 1 signing restriction)
Players with trade value: Spencer Dinwiddie ($20.2M, UFA 2024), Dorian Finney-Smith ($12.4M, player 2025) and Reggie Bullock ($10M, UFA 2024)
Free agents in July: Wood ($14.3M, UFA), Dwight Powell ($11.1M, UFA), Theo Pinson ($1.8M, UFA and one-year Bird restriction) and Frank Ntilikina ($2M, UFA)
Controllable contracts: Josh Green ($3.1M, RFA 2024) and Jaden Hardy ($1M, RFA 2025)
Long-term salary: Davis Bertans ($16M, UFA 2025), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($19.6M, UFA 2025) and McGee ($5.4M, player 2024)
Draft capital: The Mavericks owe New York a top-10 protected first in 2023, 2024 or 2025. The earliest they can trade is two years after the Knicks pick is conveyed. Dallas has two second-round picks available to trade.
The finances: Dallas is $16.5M over the luxury tax. The future of Wood will determine if Dallas is in the luxury tax next season.
(12-29-2022, 10:46 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]The idea here would be to insert Dallas and make it a four-way. Gafford has been mentioned as a logical piece for Dallas and would be a nice defensive anchor to the second team if we presume Wood continues to start. Rui is a tryout, but he does temporarily provide some PF minutes while Maxi is sidelined. I've got McGee as outgoing to a team that knows him. Frank is salary filler, but it could also be Pinson.
Interesting ideas.
From DAL angle, I have question marks on Gafford, as to intended role and salary fit.
They wanted a rim-running, defend-rebound guy to replace Powell, and at about half the salary. That was McGee. Unfortunately, none of that worked out, and McGee hasn't provided that so far -- but would they now decide to trade in McGee and pay over twice as much to fill the same 15 mpg role?
Unfortunately we can't assume Cuban would think, "Well, the money difference isn't a big deal, as long as we get an upgrade." So I have to wonder if the 3 yrs 40M owed to Gafford after this season would be a deal-killer for a player filling such a limited role.
(12-29-2022, 01:07 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting ideas.
From DAL angle, I have question marks on Gafford, as to intended role and salary fit.
They wanted a rim-running, defend-rebound guy to replace Powell, and at about half the salary. That was McGee. Unfortunately, none of that worked out, and McGee hasn't provided that so far -- but would they now decide to trade in McGee and pay over twice as much to fill the same 15 mpg role?
Unfortunately we can't assume Cuban would think, "Well, the money difference isn't a big deal, as long as we get an upgrade." So I have to wonder if the 3 yrs 40M owed to Gafford after this season would be a deal-killer for a player filling such a limited role.
Honestly if they manage to hold on to Wood, I don't think they need to spend any more cap/tax on bigs. A Wood/Powell/Maxi combination is starting to look good. Any two can be on the court together and all three can handle single big minutes. If McGee is going to be completely useless in the depth/occasional big body role, then they can sign a vet min for that. I don't think we need the original envisioned McGee role based on what we are seeing right now.
(12-29-2022, 01:01 PM)Okstate819 Wrote: [ -> ]Players with trade value: Spencer Dinwiddie ($20.2M, UFA 2024), Dorian Finney-Smith ($12.4M, player 2025) and Reggie Bullock ($10M, UFA 2024)
If this is true, I would be looking to trade them.
(12-29-2022, 01:26 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]A Wood/Powell/Maxi combination is starting to look good. Any two can be on the court together and all three can handle single big minutes.
It seems to me that the vision was
Wood/_______/Maxi
In the blank, McGee (5.5M) was going to replace Powell (11.0M), who would either be traded or expired.
I'm not convinced Powell is ever really the guy they want (which would required him to be re-signed), given the ongoing playoff inability. But he can work as a minutes eater in the regular season.
Gafford's money starts at 12.4, far north of McGee. Whether that would be a number Powell would get paid if kept, who knows? On paper (I don't watch WAS play), Gafford's fairly close to the right type of player to fill that role - low minutes, rim-runner (high shot pct, mostly point-blank range, more dunks than Powell), lots of blocks, good BR d-rating, solid rebound rate (per-36 in double digits).
To me the question is whether Gafford's salary (12.4) would be acceptable for the role they hoped to fill at 5.5. OTOH, if it takes both McGee/Powell to go forward if you don't do Gafford, then probably the salary total is far beyond 12.4, so maybe they could justify such a deal that brings both an upgrade and a younger player.
(12-29-2022, 01:42 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not convinced Powell is ever really the guy they want (which would required him to be re-signed), given the ongoing playoff inability.
Is it ongoing, or did he just have a rough go of it last year?
For my money he's mobile, switchable, plays very good defense in space, sets great screens, is still an excellent rim runner and obviously a team leader. I think even in a game when he doesn't make any statistical impact, that's usually going to come as a result of the defense switching every ball screen because they want to take away the Luka/Powell screen and roll game. That, in a significant way, is him being pretty effective, from my seat.
I don't think he's much of a paint defender (but again, does a lot to reduce the amount of times the ball touches the paint) and he's bizarrely one of the worst rebounders I've ever seen. I'm certainly not arguing that the Mavs are fine with him in place at center, please don't get me wrong.
But...if Wood works out, and Kleber comes back to backfill minutes at the 4 and 5, and Powell is re-signed for a discount (maybe that "half the price" target you mentioned)? I think they could do much worse at 3rd big, personally.
Don't get me wrong, if they can let him expire and find someone better, or trade him in a multi-player deal that includes that someone, I'm all for it.
For all the grief he gets around here (much of it deserved), Powell still does some very important things at an elite level, and they are the type of things that largely go unnoticed.
Watch the Luka highlights from any big game, and instead of watching Luka, watch Powell. He is a MASTER at continuing to play when the initial action is dealt with, often setting 2-3 effective screens during one possession. When Luka gets in the paint and shoots one of those effortless layups, it's quite often owed to Powell back screening the shot blocker almost completely out of the play, and this is frequently improvisational, not planned, and on his second or third effort.
He and Luka truly do have a great chemistry together on the offensive end. It's easy to say that services like that don't require much talent or skill, but outside of Draymond Green I just don't see many players who do those little things so well.
EDIT: this wasn't in a quote of anyone's post because I don't mean it as a rebuttal to anyone specific. I just think Powell does a scad of things that really help the team that we don't talk enough about, usually.
DOUBLE EDIT: If Christian Wood is smart enough to learn half of Powell's "screen assist" tricks while they play together here, he really might become an all-star.
(12-29-2022, 01:49 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Is it ongoing, or did he just have a rough go of it last year?
For my money he's mobile, switchable, plays very good defense in space, sets great screens, is still an excellent rim runner and obviously a team leader. I think even in a game when he doesn't make any statistical impact, that's usually going to come as a result of the defense switching every ball screen because they want to take away the Luka/Powell screen and roll game. That, in a significant way, is him being pretty effective, from my seat.
I don't think he's much of a paint defender (but again, does a lot to reduce the amount of times the ball touches the paint) and he's bizarrely one of the worst rebounders I've ever seen. I'm certainly not arguing that the Mavs are fine with him in place at center, please don't get me wrong.
But...if Wood works out, and Kleber comes back to backfill minutes at the 4 and 5, and Powell is re-signed for a discount (maybe that "half the price" target you mentioned)? I think they could do much worse at 3rd big, personally.
Don't get me wrong, if they can let him expire and find someone better, or trade him in a multi-player deal that includes that someone, I'm all for it.
I think the verdict on Powell is that his limits (can't rebound, can't protect rim, no scoring outside the circle) make him too exploitable to be of much use in the playoffs. He's just too limited in contribution on BOTH ends of the floor in playoff style ball. So regardless of the rest, that's probably an important part of the equation in determining his value.
I also think it's fair to wonder if DP would be taking a discount to sign here - not that he's worth it, or that the Mavs would be competing for his services, but Mavs gotta Mav when it comes to Powell. To me, that bizarre blind spot is also part of the equation in determining his value.
But even in your scenario offered ("if Wood works out, and Kleber comes back to backfill minutes at the 4 and 5, and Powell is re-signed for a discount"), that salary result is almost identical to the Gafford result. If that was the choice, you wouldn't want Gafford instead? I think I would.
McGee 5.7 + Powell 6-6.5? .....vs .....Gafford 12.4
(12-29-2022, 02:12 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]McGee 5.7 + Powell 6-6.5? .....vs .....Gafford 12.4
Well, THAT's a different way of thinking of it than I was considering. Anything that gets McGee out of here must be considered, from my POV (halfway joking).
FWIW, I honestly think Powell is the guy I'd want if you offered a choice of the three without additional salary/circumstantial considerations.
I think they paid him what they paid him because they were offering him a starting job...I think they should offer him 3rd big money if they want him to be the 3rd big (because that's clearly what they'll want if Wood works out). No idea if he takes it or not, but if I were him I think I might. He has clearly found a home here.
(12-29-2022, 10:46 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]There is a lot of talk around a Collins, Kuzma, Crowder 3-way. The deal has some issues. It is difficult for Washington to take on Collins without being hard capped. And, a one-for-one Kuzma/Crowder deal isn't quite legal. A couple of other thoughts...Washington probably isn't going to retain Rui this summer whether they get Collins or not. And, a roster with Beal, Collins and KP can't really afford a $13mm backup center in Gafford starting next year.
This is a creative idea but I have to be honest that it would kinda sting that the Mavs would be involve in a trade where Collins/Crowder/Kuzma are being moved and none of them are coming to Dallas.
(12-29-2022, 02:17 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Collins/Crowder/Kuzma
What's funny to me is that with the progress Wood has shown recently, I think I'm to the point where Collins would be my third choice of that trio.
The hole, to me, is STILL at the 4, and Collins is the least likely of those three to fit there, imo.
Tell me Wood has to be in the deal and my ranking of those 3 names flips immediately.
(12-29-2022, 02:15 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]FWIW, I honestly think Powell is the guy I'd want if you offered a choice of the three without additional salary/circumstantial considerations.
Perhaps.
But the Gafford case is interesting. I don't watch those games, so I can't speak from observation as to what you get with Gafford, and whether he does any little things or not. Most informative in the little things would be his screen-setting, of course.
But the Basketball Reference numbers make it look like he's Powell, able to do everything Powell does well, and some of it even better, but with much better defense and rebounding skill too.
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_find...?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=poweldw01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id2=gaffoda01&p2yrfrom=2023
@"DanSchwartzgan" have you found a place that accurately tracks screen assist numbers? I'm curious how Powell would look on a per 36 basis in that area. My guess is at or near the top of the league (some of which would be owed to Luka, of course).
(12-29-2022, 02:30 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Perhaps.
But the Gafford case is interesting. I don't watch those games, so I can't speak from observation as to what you get with Gafford, and whether he does any little things or not. Most informative in the little things would be his screen-setting, of course.
But the Basketball Reference numbers make it look like he's Powell, able to do everything Powell does well, and some of it even better, but with much better defense and rebounding skill too.
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_find...?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=poweldw01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id2=gaffoda01&p2yrfrom=2023
Well, I'll say this: Clearly, Kidd/Cuban/Harrison want to see something from the center position that Powell wasn't giving them, because even after acquiring Wood they tried to push Powell completely out of the picture with McGee.
I'm not saying Powell is the key to the Mavs' future, by any means, but my thinking is still very close to what it was over the summer. You put Wood (in the best case, hopeful scenario) next to Luka as a two-man game tandem that's as lethal as any in the league. Wood has the ability to defend the paint better than Powell, rebound better than Powell (he's already demonstrated both) and in time, I believe he can learn to play off of Luka as well as Powell, only bringing more on-ball skill to the table. I don't know if he'll ever be the dependable switch defender Powell is, but I can see it, because he has the athletic tools necessary.
Then, you play Kleber behind Wood, but have Powell (at a discount) behind HIM to give you options. Some nights will be 5-out nights, custom made for Kleber. Some nights will scream for more screening, more getting into the paint, and you can play Powell, moving Kleber's minutes mostly to the 4.
To me, this made so much sense when the Wood trade went down. It's an IMPROVEMENT on the style that has worked so well for them in recent years. It addresses some of the weaknesses we've seen in their approach but without trying to reinvent the wheel (from a Mavs' continuity perspective).
There are definitely other ways they can go.
(12-29-2022, 02:30 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Perhaps.
But the Gafford case is interesting. I don't watch those games, so I can't speak from observation as to what you get with Gafford, and whether he does any little things or not. Most informative in the little things would be his screen-setting, of course.
But the Basketball Reference numbers make it look like he's Powell, able to do everything Powell does well, and some of it even better, but with much better defense and rebounding skill too.
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_find...?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=poweldw01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id2=gaffoda01&p2yrfrom=2023
So I'm generally the guy arguing that on/off numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt due to the noise and the need for a very large sample size, but Powell has generally had one of the best net ratings on the team every season. It's a huge sample and has to mean something even if the box score and eye test don't necessarily agree. Amazingly, as bad as Powell's box score stats looked in the playoffs last season, he still had the highest net rating on the team.
I'm coming in with the assumption that Powell will take a haircut on his next contract. I could be wrong. I get the idea of replacing McGee/Powell with Gafford. I honestly find it very hard to believe we can send out McGee and get anything in return that is not a huge negative asset.
(12-28-2022, 12:49 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Lavine is basically the best possible version of the THJ archetype. Knowing how THJ performs next to Luka I think the offensive fit would be great. But it wouldn´t really address the defensive flaws. Would require additional moves to retool around both.
I think this is fair, but would add this:
To me, the one area in which Kidd has earned any credit is his ability to get these guys at least pretending to focus on team defense. You could even make an argument they're doing more than pretending.
I'd submit that LaVine HERE, with reduced on-ball responsibilities, might actually improve the team defense a bit simply by being big and athletic. And I'm typing that with a straight face. Could be wrong, but I'm much more worried about his knee than I am about his defense.
(12-29-2022, 02:12 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I think the verdict on Powell is that his limits (can't rebound, can't protect rim, no scoring outside the circle) make him too exploitable to be of much use in the playoffs. He's just too limited in contribution on BOTH ends of the floor in playoff style ball. So regardless of the rest, that's probably an important part of the equation in determining his value.
I also think it's fair to wonder if DP would be taking a discount to sign here - not that he's worth it, or that the Mavs would be competing for his services, but Mavs gotta Mav when it comes to Powell. To me, that bizarre blind spot is also part of the equation in determining his value.
But even in your scenario offered ("if Wood works out, and Kleber comes back to backfill minutes at the 4 and 5, and Powell is re-signed for a discount"), that salary result is almost identical to the Gafford result. If that was the choice, you wouldn't want Gafford instead? I think I would.
McGee 5.7 + Powell 6-6.5? .....vs .....Gafford 12.4
I'm glad I kept reading after your first response. Yeah, the bolded is what I was thinking and what I meant by "alleviates the need to retain Powell this summer". You could keep Powell if you can't work anything out with Wood, but my vision would be Wood/Gafford/Vet Min at center.
One other thing I like about this is you've got enough big bodies that you could actually hold Maxi to his minutes restriction and not feel like you don't have enough C/PF coverage to easily fill the other minutes. I also agree with your comments about Gafford being more likely to defend at a playoff level than Powell.
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