(01-11-2023, 06:59 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]But, I'm sorry, I just don't even think it's worth thinking that way from our perspective because I don't believe the Mavs are thinking that way. Maybe they might try to snag a first if they want to send it right out the door in a bigger deal, but they have just never, ever shown a desire to collect draft capital.
Agreed. But I guess it is hard to ignore the rumors. Based on everything we know about the front office I expect them to package THJ or Bullock with the remaining 2nd round picks and cash. I don´t think they will touch future first round picks. Plan powder isn´t about capspace these days. It is about tradeable future first round picks.
(01-11-2023, 07:06 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Agreed. But I guess it is hard to ignore the rumors. Based on everything we know about the front office I expect them to package THJ or Bullock with the remaining 2nd round picks and cash. I don´t think they will touch future first round picks. Plan powder isn´t about capspace these days. It is about tradeable future first round picks.
In this market they will probably get picks not send picks in exchange for THJ (obv depends whether they are getting an upgrade). Since it appears they are 'selling' then I expect them to get picks.
Lowry might be well past his peak, but I still don´t see Miami trading him, unless a PG comes back. Their other options are Oladipo, who is not a true PG and more importantly a big injury risk. After that you look at Vincent. Robinson ugh. I´d want a first with light protections and throw in McGee.
(01-11-2023, 07:09 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]In this market they will probably get picks not send picks in exchange for THJ (obv depends whether they are getting an upgrade). Since it appears they are 'selling' then I expect them to get picks.
I think they would pay for a minor upgrade. Something like Bullock, 2nd + cash for RoCo. Or THJ + 2 2nds for Bogdanovic.
(01-11-2023, 03:55 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]But the MIA trade as proposed wouldn't ensure the Knicks pick legally conveys.
True. Mavs would have 2023 (Mia), 2027 and 2029 available at TDL. Or full set of picks at draft night after Mavs pick conveys to NY. Mia 2023 would enable us to trade any combination of picks on draft night excluding Mavs 2023 pick. 2023 Mia with 2025/27/29 Mavs or 2024/26/28/30 Mavs picks while keeping Miami 2023. Of course it only makes sense to conduct such a deal if there is a great certainty something is lined up.
(01-11-2023, 06:09 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I think a first round pick in return is a fair compensation for taking on his contract.
Hard disagree. He has an extra year compared to THJ and he is more expensive than THJ for the overlapping years. He's playing 18 minutes a game and averaging under 7 points per game while shooting 33% (his specialty) from distance. Even if you want to call this year an aberration, his stats last year aren't exactly worth the 15.5M he earned. It's why his contract along with Bertans were considered among the worst contracts in the league. The Mavs goal shouldn't be trying to collect those contracts and because we already have one of them, unless they get blown away in compensation, there is no way Robinson should end up on this roster.
Welp, after reading this discussion, it's pretty clear that Herro and Lowry wouldn't be part of the return package.
If we are taking on Dangerwillrobinson, I want Jovic and at least one first rounder back. Let's see if Nico knows how to negotiate.
THJ for Jovic, Oladipo, and Martin also works. Not sure Miami does that. Edit: best part of a three-for-one is that we cut Pinson.
(01-11-2023, 07:27 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Hard disagree. He has an extra year compared to THJ and he is more expensive than THJ for the overlapping years. He's playing 18 minutes a game and averaging under 7 points per game while shooting 33% (his specialty) from distance. Even if you want to call this year an aberration, his stats last year aren't exactly worth the 15.5M he earned. It's why his contract along with Bertans were considered among the worst contracts in the league. The Mavs goal shouldn't be trying to collect those contracts and because we already have one of them, unless they get blown away in compensation, there is no way Robinson should end up on this roster.
Did you read the first part of the thread. For comparisation. DR is getting less than 4 open 3s per game. THJ is getting nearly 7. He is getting less open looks than any of the Mavs wings (DFS, Bullock, Maxi). That´s a big difference and it´s not about their ability to get shots off. Robinson´s release is even quicker than THJs and I would argue that he also moves better without the ball. Simply about a team with bad spacing and no player that is able to collapse the defense or draw double teams.
He probably isn´t going to turn back into a Curry or Klay like shooter but 38-40% on solid volume seems reasonable. It´s not like his mechanics are broken.
(01-11-2023, 07:56 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Did you read the first part of the thread. For comparisation. DR is getting less than 4 open 3s per game. THJ is getting nearly 7. He is getting less open looks than any of the Mavs wings (DFS, Bullock, Maxi). That´s a big difference and it´s not about their ability to get shots off. Robinson´s release is even quicker than THJs and I would argue that he also moves better without the ball. Simply about a team with bad spacing and no player that is able to collapse the defense or draw double teams.
He probably isn´t going to turn back into a Curry or Klay like shooter but 38-40% on solid volume seems reasonable. It´s not like his mechanics are broken.
Yes, I did. It doesn't change the fact that he has one of the worst contracts in the league. The fad of paying one dimensional shooters in 16-20m range is over. Teams are trying to correct those mistakes which is why the Nets are trying to dump Harris and why the Heat are trying to dump Robinson and why the Mavs are listening to offers for THJ not to mention they'd love to dump Bertans. These types of players are probably only worth half of what they are making now, if that.
Bertans also moves better than THJ without the ball and has a quicker release. Look how much he is utilized here. Trade Bertans for Robinson and that FRP and I'll think about it.
(01-11-2023, 08:04 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, I did. It doesn't change the fact that he has one of the worst contracts in the league. The fad of paying one dimensional shooters in 16-20m range is over. Teams are trying to correct those mistakes which is why the Nets are trying to dump Harris and why the Heat are trying to dump Robinson and why the Mavs are listening to offers for THJ not to mention they'd love to dump Bertans. These types of players are probably only worth half of what they are making now, if that.
Bertans also moves better than THJ without the ball and has a quicker release. Look how much he is utilized here. Trade Bertans for Robinson and that FRP and I'll think about it.
Hate on THJ at any given opportunity in gamethreads. But when we are discussing trades we should expect a positive return instead of looking at realistic options. Reality is that the Mavs can exchange bad contracts or pay compensation to get rid of him.
If you aren´t interested in those options maybe THJ isn´t as bad as you think...
(01-11-2023, 08:10 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Hate on THJ at any given opportunity in gamethreads. But when we are discussing trades we should expect a positive return instead of looking at realistic options. Reality is that the Mavs can exchange bad contracts or pay compensation to get rid of him.
If you aren´t interested in those options maybe THJ isn´t as bad as you think...
I'm arguing that a THJ is worth more than Robinson + 1x FRP and I'm "hating"? I'm also one of the people that has been arguing for years that the teams need to take a step back in order to move forward. Adding on long term bad money isn't the path forward unless you are being overcompensated. It's why I hated the Bertans/Din trade. It is also why I disagree with your "fair value" in this purposed swap. You can argue the fit of THJ versus Robinson but the swap isn't moving the needle for this team's future and you are paying more money yearly and an additional year (more tire spinning) for a FRP.
I don’t recall seeing this here, but a week ago Heavy.com did one of those things where an unnamed executive thinks Dallas has interest in trading for Robinson. The site then came up with Bertans and “draft capital” for Robinson with the supposed Dallas “draft capital” helping to set up Miami’s next move.
FWIW, Adam Borai is a law school student who writes articles for a few basketball web sites. Not sure how much of an “insider” he is. I also don’t recall seeing the rest of his tweet that started all of the Miami talk this morning…
[/url]
Adam Borai
[url=https://twitter.com/AdamNBorai]@AdamNBorai
A deal with the Mavs would have a lot of moving parts. The Heat are also high on a few players from the Mavs like Bullock & Finney-Smith. They easily have the salary to match if talks get serious.
9:06 AM · Jan 11, 2023·
40.4K
Views
(01-11-2023, 08:16 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I'm arguing that a THJ is worth more than Robinson + 1x FRP and I'm "hating"? I'm also one of the people that has been arguing for years that the teams need to take a step back in order to move forward. Adding on long term bad money isn't the path forward unless you are being overcompensated. It's why I hated the Bertans/Din trade. It is also why I disagree with your "fair value" in this purposed swap. You can argue the fit of THJ versus Robinson but the swap isn't moving the needle for this team's future and you are paying more money yearly and an additional year (more tire spinning) for a FRP.
I was talking about the gamethreads. Reading them one would think that THJ is the worst player in league history. Just strange to see that despite all those posts we struggle to find a THJ trade that you would support.
In this case I think I am a lot higher on the potential of a mid first round pick than you are. And I really don´t see how the extra year of Robinson would hurt the Mavs (except for Cuban´s wallet). Looking at the salary chart capspace isn´t going to be an option. Probably all the way through Luka´s current contract.
How do you intend to take a step back without taking on salary or trying to add picks? Doesn´t sound like it. Do you want to sell more valuable pieces like DFS or Wood?
(01-11-2023, 08:24 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t recall seeing this here, but a week ago Heavy.com did one of those things where an unnamed executive thinks Dallas has interest in trading for Robinson. The site then came up with Bertans and “draft capital” for Robinson with the supposed Dallas “draft capital” helping to set up Miami’s next move.
FWIW, Adam Borai is a law school student who writes articles for a few basketball web sites. Not sure how much of an “insider” he is. I also don’t recall seeing the rest of his tweet that started all of the Miami talk this morning…
[/url]
Adam Borai
[url=https://twitter.com/AdamNBorai]@AdamNBorai
A deal with the Mavs would have a lot of moving parts. The Heat are also high on a few players from the Mavs like Bullock & Finney-Smith. They easily have the salary to match if talks get serious.
9:06 AM · Jan 11, 2023·
40.4K
Views
Seems like they aren´t really considering the Mavs perspective. Not sure what exchanging Bertans and Robinson would do for either team. Hard to imagine that either team would be willing to add draft compensation.
(01-11-2023, 08:26 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]And I really don´t see how the extra year of Robinson would hurt the Mavs (except for Cuban´s wallet).
Did you say the same thing about the extra contract length and money in the KP for Din/Bertans swap? These terrible contracts we give out and collect is why we don't have cap space.
I don't think a FRP for the additional money and contract length is worth the swap for THJ and Robinson. THJ is useful on the Mavericks. Robinson is not useful to the Heat. Robinson's contract is going to be a lot like Bertans where it would be hard to get off of them without paying to do so. THJ might be easy to move next year and if not, certainly in his final year.
And yes, I've advocated for selling off Din and DFS if the returns are good. But that is the key, the returns need to be overpays. Luka is already frustrated enough so you need to put a plan in front of him for improving.
(01-11-2023, 08:59 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Did you say the same thing about the extra contract length and money in the KP for Din/Bertans swap?
(01-11-2023, 08:59 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]These terrible contracts we give out and collect is why we don't have cap space.
I wanted to sell KP after the first offseason and was happy when they finally got rid of him. Would argue that the improvement leading to a deep playoff run was worth the trade. Situation wasn´t comparable. Mavs had more options to improve. Options they wasted in the last summer. Not to mention that in the THJ-DR example the Mavs would receive draft compensation from the Heat.
I don´t think KP improved his value since the trade. And would argue that the Mavs could trade Dinwiddie for a minor positive return at any given time. From a pure retooling/asset management point of view that´s better than having KP. But it´s not going to happen because the Mavs aren´t going to sell him.
The contract issues don´t start with trades. They start with contracts the Mavs handed out themself. KP, Powell, THJ. Or McGee this summer. Self-inflicted misery. Trying to get out of those deals is difficult but unless you want to stay on the treadmill sitting out those contracts and waiting for the next plan powder window it´s not an option. Either make win now moves (proposed by other posters) or take a step back and add minor assets to retool (proposed among others also by me).
(01-11-2023, 08:59 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]But that is the key, the returns need to be overpays.
No team is willing to overpay and it´s not like the Mavs are negotiating with idiots. If that is the baseline for any trade there will never be a deal to your liking. I guess that´s the part that I don´t get and it´s not really about you. More of a general observation. We spent most of our time bitching and complaining about the same players but when trade talks come up we are expecting some kind of compensation for the very same players. Leading to widespread disappointment when a deal is made.
Underrating and overrating the same players at the same time.
(01-11-2023, 08:59 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think a FRP for the additional money and contract length is worth the swap for THJ and Robinson.
Lets phrase it differently. THJ for Duncan Robinson and Josh Green. Is that a deal you would consider? What is the kind of overpay you would need to pull the trigger.
(01-11-2023, 08:59 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]And yes, I've advocated for selling off Din and DFS if the returns are good. But that is the key, the returns need to be overpays. Luka is already frustrated enough so you need to put a plan in front of him for improving.
Same question. What is your asking price? Of course there are no brainer deals but it´s not like the Heat will enter negotiations and offer three 1sts.
So nobody buys the THJ for Jovic-Oladipo-Martin deal I mentioned? It's been brought up on other boards.
(01-11-2023, 09:26 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Lets phrase it differently. THJ for Duncan Robinson and Josh Green. Is that a deal you would consider? What is the kind of overpay you would need to pull the trigger.
You are completely backwards. Why would the Mavs add more to deal if my position is the Heat aren't paying enough?
You can say no team will overpay. That's fine. There is no rush for the Mavs to sell there assets. We need to be opportunistic. The longer you keep THJ, the more attractive his contract becomes.
(01-11-2023, 08:24 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t recall seeing this here, but a week ago Heavy.com did one of those things where an unnamed executive thinks Dallas has interest in trading for Robinson. The site then came up with Bertans and “draft capital” for Robinson with the supposed Dallas “draft capital” helping to set up Miami’s next move.
FWIW, Adam Borai is a law school student who writes articles for a few basketball web sites. Not sure how much of an “insider” he is. I also don’t recall seeing the rest of his tweet that started all of the Miami talk this morning…
[/url]
Adam Borai
[url=https://twitter.com/AdamNBorai]@AdamNBorai
A deal with the Mavs would have a lot of moving parts. The Heat are also high on a few players from the Mavs like Bullock & Finney-Smith. They easily have the salary to match if talks get serious.
9:06 AM · Jan 11, 2023·
40.4K
Views
Lol if Mavs traded draft capital to get DR I think I would maybe shut everything down and quit Mavs altogether.
(01-11-2023, 09:31 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]You are completely backwards. Why would the Mavs add more to deal if my position is the Heat aren't paying enough?
You can say no team will overpay. That's fine. There is no rush for the Mavs to sell there assets. We need to be opportunistic. The longer you keep THJ, the more attractive his contract becomes.
I inserted a random name instead of the pick (or not so random pick in the 15-20 range, projected Miami pick). Mavs aren´t adding anything.