(01-11-2023, 09:34 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I inserted a random name instead of the pick (or not so random pick in the 15-20 range, projected Miami pick). Mavs aren´t adding anything.
Not very clear on your part. I'd want two first round picks in a THJ for Robinson swap. Heat can say no to that and I'd be equally happy.
(01-11-2023, 09:35 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Not very clear on your part. I'd want two first round picks in a THJ for Robinson swap. Heat can say no to that and I'd be equally happy.
Just to be clear. Two firsts in the projected 15-20 range? What if the Heat throw in their 2022 first round pick Nikola Jovic instead of an additional future first?
FWIW, a first round pick is thought to be worth about $20mm of salary.
I mention this because the excess between THJ and Robinson is about that $20mm in extra salary that last season. If it were the summer of 25 and Miami wanted to offload Robinson into another team’s space, it would cost about a first rounder. I’m not sure how to allow for the present value difference between a near pick and distant salary, but I think the 2023 first is about the right neighborhood.
I’ll repeat what I’ve said a couple of times now. I don’t think you do this deal to stockpile for the summer. I think you do it to give you the assets for a deal at the TDL. One other note, if this leads to a larger deal that brings in Robinson and $30-something million star (I’ve been using Siakam as my example), the size of the deal and the $2.7mm spread between THJ’s higher current salary and Robinson’s lower current salary makes trade matching easier. If the Mav’s somehow could trade straight up for Siakam, they’d have to send out $28.24mm. But, if it is part of a bigger swap with THJ for Robinson included the additional Mav salary needed drops to $22.16mm.
(01-11-2023, 09:39 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Just to be clear. Two firsts in the projected 15-20 range? What if the Heat throw in their 2022 first round pick Nikola Jovic instead of an additional future first?
No thanks to Jovic. I haven't studied a ton of the Heat's future draft picks but I think they can only trade '23/'27/'29 which makes it hard to project where the second will fall.
(01-11-2023, 09:44 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]FWIW, a first round pick is thought to be worth about $20mm of salary.
Depends where that picks falls and it you also have to factor in protections which muddies the waters as FRPs can become SRPs.
Tim is also a more useful player and will become a more useful asset over the next two years. That has to be worth something.
(01-11-2023, 09:44 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]FWIW, a first round pick is thought to be worth about $20mm of salary.
I mention this because the excess between THJ and Robinson is about that $20mm in extra salary that last season. If it were the summer of 25 and Miami wanted to offload Robinson into another team’s space, it would cost about a first rounder. I’m not sure how to allow for the present value difference between a near pick and distant salary, but I think the 2023 first is about the right neighborhood.
I’ll repeat what I’ve said a couple of times now. I don’t think you do this deal to stockpile for the summer. I think you do it to give you the assets for a deal at the TDL. One other note, if this leads to a larger deal that brings in Robinson and $30-something million star (I’ve been using Siakam as my example), the size of the deal and the $2.7mm spread between THJ’s higher current salary and Robinson’s lower current salary makes trade matching easier. If the Mav’s somehow could trade straight up for Siakam, they’d have to send out $28.24mm. But, if it is part of a bigger swap with THJ for Robinson included the additional Mav salary needed drops to $22.16mm.
I agree and would add imo Mavs only do this if they have another trade lined up which would have to include Bertans. There in zero chance in my mind Mavs do any moves that result in DR and Bertans both being on this team. If you look at it in terms of DR replacing Bertans as your overpaid bench shooter, you are doing that to upgrade THJ's spot to someone else.
Mavs will get all their picks back this summer so maybe they could use a pick at some future date to dump DR for someone else. The reason why they make this move now is that the Heat are really the only team I can think of that could be used to gain a pick.
I don't think Mavs will do a Heat deal bc the Cleveland option is a lot cleaner. I see this as some negotiation to get Cleveland to up their offer (ie throw in a 2nd or two).
(01-11-2023, 09:50 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/TheHoopCentral/statu...5668554753
Don´t think a contender is willing to pay for a player with his limitations. Need to find a team that isn´t really trying to compete. With an owner that just wants to sell merch and tickets. Charlotte would be the perfect destination but they already have Lamelo.
Edit: Or maybe Cuban???
(01-11-2023, 03:20 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Don’t see any way in the world Miami-THJ rumor is about Lowry.
Personally I think that's the plainly obvious target from the Dallas perspective. They were ready and willing to sign Lowry over THJ, so if they have the opportunity to trade THJ for Lowry I think they'd do it in a heartbeat. Dallas also has a weird habit of going after guys that originally turned them down. Deron Williams, Deandre Jordan, etc. So it's arguably in their nature. And the rumors around swapping THJ for LeVert fall right into the same position of need.
Now whether Miami is ready to make that deal is another matter. But I also get the vibe they may even consider moving Butler to reboot a bit younger, so I'm not so quick to dismiss it.
(01-11-2023, 08:24 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Bertans and “draft capital” for Robinson
This would go down easier, at least for me.
Just looked up DR and saw he’s 28? So we’re getting 2 years younger trading for him? I was slightly onboard with the deal from a draft capital standpoint, thinking he’s young and his shooting will bounce back.
TBH, it was said that Bertans is a good shooter too and that he would bounce back. Still waiting for that to happen. I’m not even sure I want to extend that Bertans contract by turning it into DR. Especially if Cuban’s wallet is tight.
Being opportunistic with Cha (maybe Was) is still the only way we are able to move off all these bad contracts in my mind. Them getting some cap space, a big time pick in the draft and getting Bridges back next year turns that team around in a hurry IMO.
Mavs part from piece below (this is a fantasy trade proposal from Toronto guy and Cato's opinion):
To Mavericks: VanVleet
To Raptors: Josh Green (two years, $7.86 million), Davis Bertans (three years, $49 million, including player option for 2024-25) and a 2025 first-round pick
The Mavericks’ view: Dallas isn’t expected to trade first-round picks or a young player like Green in any situation this season; the front office understands its ammunition needs to be saved for a major move in the next year or two. This isn’t the sort of deal that would tempt them. VanVleet would help the Mavericks, but he doesn’t fit their timeline and doesn’t offer the defensive upgrade they’re wanting for their 23rd-ranked defence, per NBA.com. — Tim Cato
Trading Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr.: Raptors as sellers, Part 1 - The Athletic
(01-12-2023, 02:30 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Just looked up DR and saw he’s 28? So we’re getting 2 years younger trading for him? I was slightly onboard with the deal from a draft capital standpoint, thinking he’s young and his shooting will bounce back.
TBH, it was said that Bertans is a good shooter too and that he would bounce back. Still waiting for that to happen. I’m not even sure I want to extend that Bertans contract by turning it into DR. Especially if Cuban’s wallet is tight.
Being opportunistic with Cha (maybe Was) is still the only way we are able to move off all these bad contracts in my mind. Them getting some cap space, a big time pick in the draft and getting Bridges back next year turns that team around in a hurry IMO.
Agree on all. DR doesn't seem that different to me than Bertans, in both play and contract. I'm struggling to see how adding another terrible long term contract for a guy that gets less than 10 minutes a game for a middling first is a good long term direction to take. I don't really see any way this happens. Teams in the tax don't take on bad contracts for picks, and Cuban doesn't opperate this way even when he has cap space available.
(01-12-2023, 09:56 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs part from piece below (this is a fantasy trade proposal from Toronto guy and Cato's opinion):
To Mavericks: VanVleet
To Raptors: Josh Green (two years, $7.86 million), Davis Bertans (three years, $49 million, including player option for 2024-25) and a 2025 first-round pick
The Mavericks’ view: Dallas isn’t expected to trade first-round picks or a young player like Green in any situation this season; the front office understands its ammunition needs to be saved for a major move in the next year or two. This isn’t the sort of deal that would tempt them. VanVleet would help the Mavericks, but he doesn’t fit their timeline and doesn’t offer the defensive upgrade they’re wanting for their 23rd-ranked defence, per NBA.com. — Tim Cato
Trading Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr.: Raptors as sellers, Part 1 - The Athletic
I disagree on the defense thing. Bringing in VanVleet would be one of the few options to get Dinwiddie out of the starting lineup, and it would be a significant defensive upgrade.
Depending on how much Green is valued, it seems like we are sending him out just to get off Bertans with the first being payment for Vanvleet. I would not send out Green, but I would consider a Timmy + First for VanVleet. I am concerned about the rental aspect and we would need to have a deal in place before sending out a first.
(01-12-2023, 10:21 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I would not send out Green, but I would consider a Timmy + First for VanVleet.
The trouble with sending out a pick for a non-difference maker like FVV is it kills the ability to later make the move for the second star. FVV is not that guy. He makes you better, but not better enough. And now the cupboard is bare.
So, it isn’t just the calculus of whether FVV is ‘worth’ the outgoing package. It is the impact the outgoing package has on what else we can do.
(01-12-2023, 10:03 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Agree on all. DR doesn't seem that different to me than Bertans, in both play and contract. I'm struggling to see how adding another terrible long term contract for a guy that gets less than 10 minutes a game for a middling first is a good long term direction to take. I don't really see any way this happens. Teams in the tax don't take on bad contracts for picks, and Cuban doesn't opperate this way even when he has cap space available.
If all this is is a straight up deal, I’d agree with you. My assumption is Miami would pay at least their 2023 pick in such a deal. Having that as a chip now or in the summer is a game changer. It isn’t only about DR vs. THJ (and paying an extra year). It is about the other things getting a pick could unlock.
I also think too much is made of DR’s current season and not enough of his total body of work. Very few of us thought Dinwiddie would contribute anything here because most here had a myopic view of who he was based on what he was producing in DC. Turns out a change of scenery and playing with Luka changed his efficiency pretty dramatically. It isn’t hard to look at DR’s recent history and project the same thing as we could looking back at Dinwiddie’s pre-injury season in Brooklyn. Will DR ever become a good defender…no. But Tim hasn’t been anything special historically either. I think the two players would be roughly equivalent here and Miami would have to pay something for us to eat the extra year of what turned out to be bloated contracts for both players.
(01-12-2023, 10:58 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]If all this is is a straight up deal, I’d agree with you. My assumption is Miami would pay at least their 2023 pick in such a deal. Having that as a chip now or in the summer is a game changer. It isn’t only about DR vs. THJ (and paying an extra year). It is about the other things getting a pick could unlock.
I also think too much is made of DR’s current season and not enough of his total body of work. Very few of us thought Dinwiddie would contribute anything here because most here had a myopic view of who he was based on what he was producing in DC. Turns out a change of scenery and playing with Luka changed his efficiency pretty dramatically. It isn’t hard to look at DR’s recent history and project the same thing as we could looking back at Dinwiddie’s pre-injury season in Brooklyn. Will DR ever become a good defender…no. But Tim hasn’t been anything special historically either. I think the two players would be roughly equivalent here and Miami would have to pay something for us to eat the extra year of what turned out to be bloated contracts for both players.
Wow can't remember to disagree that much.
DR is like 4y70(80)Mio of an absolute useless player. And THJ is like 3y/45Mio of at least worth that money.
The going rate for that is like 4 firsts.
As they say 20Mio is a first and Miamis firsts are historically bad ones.
![[Image: wolf-of-wall-street-not-leaving.gif]](https://media.tenor.com/Se_Z-Ux6NX4AAAAd/wolf-of-wall-street-not-leaving.gif)