(01-09-2023, 08:46 PM)Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo Wrote: [ -> ]And it took injuries for Maxi and DP to start him.
Add to the fact that, it took a couple of games before Benedict took out Joel form the rotation.
Yes he did adjust, but doesn't mean what he did had no effects in team wins and a Wood re-sign/extension.
Hopefully we get to see a few games with Green and DFS back to get a baseline of where we are at before the deadline.
(01-09-2023, 10:45 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]And, when SD was coming off the bench last season he didn’t have the same +/- issues he’s having today.
I think the whole SD +/- thing has been overblown. Not only does he play the most minutes without Luka on the court, but he also took a big hit at the beginning of the season in the starting lineup with McGee (and a struggling Bullock and Dorian). Since the beginning of December his net rating has been just fine, and higher than Wood's.
(01-09-2023, 08:38 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]For those who think the way Wood has been “brought along” was “genius”
How genius is it that we have seen 0 games of our best lineups half way through the season and 1 month away from the deadline?
I'm curious what you define as "best lineups" and how you quantify that. You realize your favorite player Powell has the best net rating on the team.
(01-09-2023, 11:46 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think the whole SD +/- thing has been overblown. Not only does he play the most minutes without Luka on the court, but he also took a big hit at the beginning of the season in the starting lineup with McGee (and a struggling Bullock and Dorian). Since the beginning of December his net rating has been just fine, and higher than Wood's.
In the last 15 games...
SD's on-court defensive rating is 118.4...the NBA's worst defense (SAS) has a 118.7 rating.
When SD is off the court in those same 15 games the defensive rating is 105.6....the NBA's best defense (CLE) has a 109.0 rating.
So in the last 15 games (not old news) the Mavs basically play the worst defense in the league when SD plays and the best defense in the league when he sits.
And for the whole season, his on-court D rating is 114.7 and his off-court D rating is 107.3. There is absolutely no way to look at the data IMO that does not come back to the conclusion that SD is central to the Mavs defensive struggles.
(01-09-2023, 11:52 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm curious what you define as "best lineups" and how you quantify that. You realize your favorite player Powell has the best net rating on the team.
Personally, I use my eyes. I know most here like to cherry pick stats to fit their narrative, but I’m too lazy.
I think the best version of the Mavs includes Wood starting and playing 30+ minutes with Josh, DFS and Maxi healthy (something we never got to see).
(01-10-2023, 12:00 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]In the last 15 games...
SD's on-court defensive rating is 118.4...the NBA's worst defense (SAS) has a 118.7 rating.
When SD is off the court in those same 15 games the defensive rating is 105.6....the NBA's best defense (CLE) has a 109.0 rating.
So in the last 15 games (not old news) the Mavs basically play the worst defense in the league when SD plays and the best defense in the league when he sits.
And for the whole season, his on-court D rating is 114.7 and his off-court D rating is 107.3. There is absolutely no way to look at the data IMO that does not come back to the conclusion that SD is central to the Mavs defensive struggles.
There is no question Dinwiddie has been bad on defense, but there is a ton of noise in those numbers. I was trying to show that noisy circumstances early on negatively affected his +/- for the season and you come back with a smaller sample. Look at the numbers you are showing. For the last 15 games with no Maxi or Green or Dorian all we had to do was not play Dinwiddie and we would have had the best defense in the NBA. Do you see how ridiculous that result is? This team is going to be crappy at defense right now with him on or off the court (more crappy with him on). Saying he is cental to their struggles is waw overstated.
If we look at the whole season, Dinwiddie's D rating is not good at 115. But a quick glance shows Dorian at 115, Luka and Bullock at 114 and Wood and Timmy at 113. That's basically your top 6 rotational players and they are all within a point or two on D rating. Don't know why we are calling Dinwiddie out specifically.
(01-09-2023, 06:45 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Not bad by Dalton Trigg...
I'd be more interested in LeVert long term than Bojan, but it is a great idea.
(01-10-2023, 12:22 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]There is no question Dinwiddie has been bad on defense, but there is a ton of noise in those numbers. I was trying to show that noisy circumstances early on negatively affected his +/- for the season and you come back with a smaller sample. Look at the numbers you are showing. For the last 15 games with no Maxi or Green or Dorian all we had to do was not play Dinwiddie and we would have had the best defense in the NBA. Do you see how ridiculous that result is? This team is going to be crappy at defense right now with him on or off the court (more crappy with him on). Saying he is central to their struggles is way overstated.
Great insight. Thanks.
About SD, I see no value in the cherry-picked numbers used to create a negative agenda about him, because I think the idea he needs to go is transparently dumb. All I have to do is remember that the Mavs need 3 superior playmakers to drive the offense and keep it from being a perennial one-man Luka show, and SD's the only useful one of those they really have other than Luka.
They need one more, not one less. And I bet the Mavs are well aware of that.
(01-10-2023, 12:22 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Don't know why we are calling Dinwiddie out specifically.
Prolly because the Mavs went from a top 10 defensive team to a rather bad defensive team and people are trying to figure out why the dramatic drop off
And this is with a emerging Josh Green who looks like a game changing defender in the making. I am honestly not sure if DFS, Kleber are even that game changing on D. The truth is prolly closer to bottom 3 or 5 defense in the league if it weren't for Green.
Some data/facts:
- Spencer sitting on a D-Raptor worse than Trae Young, while Tim sitting on a D-Raptor better than Giannis/OG. Do i buy that Tim is that good? no way. But the difference is pretty crazy
- Do i buy that Luka is the main problem? [X] for doubt. Luka has 515 minutes this season without Spencer. In those 515 minutes the Mavs are more or less tied with best defense in the league at 109.74 DefRtg. In the minutes Luka + SD are on the floor that DefRtg jumps to 119.60, which is worst in the league. Neither numbers are small sample sizes
- Is Wood unplayable due to his defense? Luka + SD + Wood sitting on a 120.59 ORtg & a 123.11 DefRtg (336 min). There is the huge question mark if that trio is even playable for longer stretches, if you can't figure out the defense. While Luka + Wood without SD sitting on a ridiculous good 123.68 ORtg with a 109.27 DefRtg in 313 min. Luka + SD without Wood sitting on a 117/117 split.
- Then you have the 2 man lineup net ratings where Luka / SD is the worst combo from the main rotation other than Luka / Bullock
Barring no trade i have a hard time seeing how Kidd fixes the defensive problems without a starting 5 lineup change. I think there is reasonable evidence that the starting 5 could live without Spencer offense and the offense won't crumble too much. And he had success in a 6th man role last year.
- Luka won't get benched, i hope
- THJ can't get benched because he sucks without Luka. The most depending Luka player on the roster. But also does positive things for Luka on offense i think
- Wood shouldn't get benched
- Which just leaves Spencer?
Who had success as a 6th man. And has great net ratings with Frank (SD + Frank are +19 net). Are we surprised a good defender works well with SD on the floor? Maybe not. He also has Dwight Powell on the bench which just seems to work well in combo with SD. Pretty much the only guy besides Frank who look on the numbers.
If Green fixes the 4 amigos Luka/SD/Tim/Wood as the lone defender by himself, give him DPOY & declare him untouchable forever
(01-10-2023, 05:05 AM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]Barring no trade i have a hard time seeing how Kidd fixes the defensive problems without a starting 5 lineup change. I think there is reasonable evidence that the starting 5 could live without Spencer offense and the offense won't crumble too much. And he had success in a 6th man role last year.
I agree with most what you have said in the whole post, great stuff. I totally agree SD best role is the 6th man.
The only change - I wouldn't do much this year. I don't think SD would be happy if you insert Green in the starting line-up and bench him. On the other hand, I am very skeptical Green will actually continue his positive impact in a much larger role - I am not sure he is ready for it, because he still has a lot of limitations. I think his current role of some 25 minutes from bench is perfect for him at this stage.
For next season. Bring in a 2-way wing and move SD to 6th man role.
SD has always struck me as being among the worst defenders in the league and the data apparently back that up. If the goal is to trade overrated players to get out of a bad contract and capitalize on their perceived value, maybe he’s where you start. On the other hand, the defensive data is still messy. DRPM has Spencer rated highly as a defensive point guard and THJ rated low. The loss of JB has thrown this franchise into chaos. No one can figure out the best lineup/rotation anymore. My preference for starters would be Luka, Wood, Green, and DFS. I don’t think the fifth starter is on the roster.
(01-10-2023, 07:31 AM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: [ -> ]SD has always struck me as being among the worst defenders in the league and the data apparently back that up. If the goal is to trade overrated players to get out of a bad contract and capitalize on their perceived value, maybe he’s where you start. On the other hand, the defensive data is still messy. DRPM has Spencer rated highly as a defensive point guard and THJ rated low. The loss of JB has thrown this franchise into chaos. No one can figure out the best lineup/rotation anymore. My preference for starters would be Luka, Wood, Green, and DFS. I don’t think the fifth starter is on the roster.
This plus SD is great as third ballhandler/playmaker/scorer.
(01-10-2023, 07:31 AM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: [ -> ] My preference for starters would be Luka, Wood, Green, and DFS. I don’t think the fifth starter is on the roster.
If we decide to commit to Wood, I agree with this. There is also a nice bench to be had amongst Powell, Maxi, Dinwiddie and Frank/Hardy.
The question as to what that fifth player should be is very much up in the air. Some believe another ball handler. Some believe a scoring wing. Some believe another big to help Wood stop the layup line at the rim. Oh, and it would be nice if that person could also be an average 3 point shooter. The truth is we need all of those things, but if Luka/Wood are going to be the core of your offense, above all else, that fifth guy has to be a multi-position plus defender.
(01-10-2023, 12:22 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]There is no question Dinwiddie has been bad on defense, but there is a ton of noise in those numbers. I was trying to show that noisy circumstances early on negatively affected his +/- for the season and you come back with a smaller sample.
I was offering a 41 game sample and then you shrunk it to something smaller, saying recently that it was better. I was showing that is NOT true, recently it has NOT gotten better and the 41 game size (NOT small) shows this is a massive problem (namely the defense which has been mine and many other's issues).
You come to on/off +/- with complete distrust insisting that it is always "noisy", so you will not trust it. I come to it trusting the numbers are telling us the truth. We are not going to agree on it when our starting points are totally different.
But at the end of the day, this is an indisputable fact: The Mavs have been a much, much more successful team at outscoring the opposition when SD hasn't played. Explain it away however you want, but the Mavs have not been a winning team with SD on the court (through 41 games and 1993 minutes of data).
(01-10-2023, 06:56 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with most what you have said in the whole post, great stuff. I totally agree SD best role is the 6th man.
The only change - I wouldn't do much this year. I don't think SD would be happy if you insert Green in the starting line-up and bench him. On the other hand, I am very skeptical Green will actually continue his positive impact in a much larger role - I am not sure he is ready for it, because he still has a lot of limitations. I think his current role of some 25 minutes from bench is perfect for him at this stage.
For next season. Bring in a 2-way wing and move SD to 6th man role.
I agree with Green. Unless a big trade happens I am fine with Green coming off the bench. Him getting a lot of minutes is what is important now. His breakout is relatively new. Let him overachieve as a heavy minute bench player. If he succeeds, then he probably has a good chance to be a regular starter next year.
Starting him now is going to ruffle some feathers...even in the best of locker rooms. I see no negative of him getting at least 25 minutes a night off the bench. 25 minutes is going to be tough when everyone is healthy, but it should be a priority imo.
(01-10-2023, 08:48 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]If we decide to commit to Wood, I agree with this. There is also a nice bench to be had amongst Powell, Maxi, Dinwiddie and Frank/Hardy.
The question as to what that fifth player should be is very much up in the air. Some believe another ball handler. Some believe a scoring wing. Some believe another big to help Wood stop the layup line at the rim. Oh, and it would be nice if that person could also be an average 3 point shooter. The truth is we need all of those things, but if Luka/Wood are going to be the core of your offense, above all else, that fifth guy has to be a multi-position plus defender.
I think this roster looks much better if our second best creator/player is a wing. Those guys are really hard to find. The best of them would eliminate a lot of holes with the rest of the roster. I also think we need a big who is a good defender. But if you had that wing, that big can be a 5-10 million dollar player. Maybe the big doesn't need to be a center, maybe it is a PF who can defend bigs and also protect the rim.
(01-10-2023, 09:32 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I was offering a 41 game sample and then you shrunk it to something smaller, saying recently that it was better. I was showing that is NOT true, recently it has NOT gotten better and the 41 game size (NOT small) shows this is a massive problem (namely the defense which has been mine and many other's issues).
You come to on/off +/- with complete distrust insisting that it is always "noisy", so you will not trust it. I come to it trusting the numbers are telling us the truth. We are not going to agree on it when our starting points are totally different.
But at the end of the day, this is an indisputable fact: The Mavs have been a much, much more successful team at outscoring the opposition when SD hasn't played. Explain it away however you want, but the Mavs have not been a winning team with SD on the court (through 41 games and 1993 minutes of data).
So the entire point of your post is that Dinwiddie is the primary issue with team defense, and I used your same numbers to show that Dorian, Luka, Bullock, Wood and Timmy are almost as bad.
Now you are moving the goalposts entirely (no longer focusing specifically on his defense) and looking at his net rating for the season without any context and claiming we are not a winning team with Dinwiddie on the court (its "indisputable").
If we are going to treat individual net rating of less than half a season with no context as gospel, then why are you not clamoring for Powell to start over Wood and get more minutes? He has by far the highest net rating on the team and much higher than Wood.
(01-10-2023, 05:05 AM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]Prolly because the Mavs went from a top 10 defensive team to a rather bad defensive team and people are trying to figure out why the dramatic drop off
And this is with a emerging Josh Green who looks like a game changing defender in the making. I am honestly not sure if DFS, Kleber are even that game changing on D. The truth is prolly closer to bottom 3 or 5 defense in the league if it weren't for Green.
Some data/facts:
- Spencer sitting on a D-Raptor worse than Trae Young, while Tim sitting on a D-Raptor better than Giannis/OG. Do i buy that Tim is that good? no way. But the difference is pretty crazy
- Do i buy that Luka is the main problem? [X] for doubt. Luka has 515 minutes this season without Spencer. In those 515 minutes the Mavs are more or less tied with best defense in the league at 109.74 DefRtg. In the minutes Luka + SD are on the floor that DefRtg jumps to 119.60, which is worst in the league. Neither numbers are small sample sizes
- Is Wood unplayable due to his defense? Luka + SD + Wood sitting on a 120.59 ORtg & a 123.11 DefRtg (336 min). There is the huge question mark if that trio is even playable for longer stretches, if you can't figure out the defense. While Luka + Wood without SD sitting on a ridiculous good 123.68 ORtg with a 109.27 DefRtg in 313 min. Luka + SD without Wood sitting on a 117/117 split.
- Then you have the 2 man lineup net ratings where Luka / SD is the worst combo from the main rotation other than Luka / Bullock
Barring no trade i have a hard time seeing how Kidd fixes the defensive problems without a starting 5 lineup change. I think there is reasonable evidence that the starting 5 could live without Spencer offense and the offense won't crumble too much. And he had success in a 6th man role last year.
- Luka won't get benched, i hope
- THJ can't get benched because he sucks without Luka. The most depending Luka player on the roster. But also does positive things for Luka on offense i think
- Wood shouldn't get benched
- Which just leaves Spencer?
Who had success as a 6th man. And has great net ratings with Frank (SD + Frank are +19 net). Are we surprised a good defender works well with SD on the floor? Maybe not. He also has Dwight Powell on the bench which just seems to work well in combo with SD. Pretty much the only guy besides Frank who look on the numbers.
If Green fixes the 4 amigos Luka/SD/Tim/Wood as the lone defender by himself, give him DPOY & declare him untouchable forever
I would argue the story of team defense this year is three phases:
In phase one, we started with McGee which was a disaster, Bullock who has looked terrible, Dorian who has not been good this season and Luka and Dinwiddie who are not good defenders to start with. It was a mess.
In phase two, we replaced McGee with Powell and slowly started to eat into Bullocks minutes with Green. During this phase we were playing as well as last season defensively.
In phase three, Maxi, Green and Dorian all went down. We added Timmy to the starting lineup leaving us with no point of attack defender. There was no chance of this defense being good during this phase.
If we are going to talk about what went wrong, I would argue the injuries are the biggest impact, then Bullock going from above average to terrible, then Dorian going from really good to average at best, then the McGee fiasco. Dinwiddie being bad at defense would be low on my list. He wasn't good last year.
As far as the starting lineup with everyone healthy is concerned, I have been a strong proponent of needing a point of attack defender in the starting lineup and have made several arguments that Dinwiddie makes a lot of sense as 6th man. I have never argued that Dinwiddie needs to be in the starting lineup. My original point was that there needs to be some context around his current season net rating issues, and when you take that into account, he is not the net negative some have portrayed him to be.
(01-10-2023, 10:05 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]So the entire point of your post is that Dinwiddie is the primary issue with team defense, and I used your same numbers to show that Dorian, Luka, Bullock, Wood and Timmy are almost as bad.
Now you are moving the goalposts entirely (no longer focusing specifically on his defense) and looking at his net rating for the season without any context and claiming we are not a winning team with Dinwiddie on the court (its "indisputable").
If we are going to treat individual net rating of less than half a season with no context as gospel, then why are you not clamoring for Powell to start over Wood and get more minutes? He has by far the highest net rating on the team and much higher than Wood.
My point is this: SD is somehow (whether his play or his use by the coaches or his dynamic alongside certain players, etc) central to the team defense issue through 41 games this season. I think the data backs this up massively.
That's it. I have said he needs to be moved to the 6th man role from literally game one of the season. I also think he should be traded as I actually don't care for his fit with the team long term and think the Mavs should "sell high" since his shooting has been fantastic.
All I am saying is that the evidence is indisputably saying that the Mavs have NOT been a good team (especially defensively) with SD playing this year and that the TEAM has been way better (especially defensively) when SD is not playing. Those are statistical facts.
What to do with that is the question. My OPINIONS are 1) move him to the bench and 2) explore trades for him. Those do not have to be the answer, but something needs to be done because this 41 game trend correcting itself on its own without changes is REALLY unlikely IMO.
