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I also don’t think we are really competitive if we lose KP and have Kawhi sit for the year...would much rather have Luka/KP/Kawhi than Luka/Kawhi/THJ

(07-23-2021, 08:31 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]He's still better than THJ and it's frankly not close IMO. 

THJ is also bad on defense and always has been. At least KP has been good there before last year. 
THJ is a better shooter but KP is an overall better scorer. 

Again take the contract value out of it. Now the injury concern is valid. But I still take the better player. If we are concerned about injuries, we probably aren't  trying to sign Kawhi.

The most recent version of KP we witnessed is worse than THJ and it's frankly not close IMO.  And that's coming from someone who isn't the biggest fan of THJ on the court, check my tag.  And that's also coming from someone who has defended KP's shortcomings a ton because I think a lot of the blame rests outside of his shoulders.  You have a lot more cap space to tinker with the roster if it is a KP for Kawhi swap rather than a Kawhi addition.  If Kawhi sits for a year, we'd certainly be a worse team but we own our 2022 pick.

Injury is only part of the KP issue.   Kawhi would be easy to trade and get great value from.  We'd be lucky to recoup half of what we still owe for KP at this point.

For the record, I think Kawhi is the pipe'iest of pipe dreams.

(07-23-2021, 08:58 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]The most recent version of KP we witnessed is worse than THJ and it's frankly not close IMO.  And that's coming from someone who isn't the biggest fan of THJ on the court, check my tag.  And that's also coming from someone who has defended KP's shortcomings a ton because I think a lot of the blame rests outside of his shoulders.  You have a lot more cap space to tinker with the roster if it is a KP for Kawhi swap rather than a Kawhi addition.  If Kawhi sits for a year, we'd certainly be a worse team but we own our 2022 pick.

Injury is only part of the KP issue.   Kawhi would be easy to trade and get great value from.  We'd be lucky to recoup half of what we still owe for KP at this point.

For the record, I think Kawhi is the pipe'iest of pipe dreams.

The one that had KP put up career high in #s efficiency wise and the same ppg as his 1st year here? 
Or are you talking about just the Clippers series? 

We know the Mavs decided to use him that way based on the gameplan (which almost worked btw). And defensively they did even worse to Gobert. 

Again THJ is also a really bad defender. and always has been. He got abused constantly in that series too. There is reason to hope KP is a solid defender again.
I think that people are wildly overreacting to the Clippers series and think that was how KP played this year.

(07-23-2021, 09:26 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]The one that had KP put up career high in #s efficiency wise and the same ppg as his 1st year here? 
Or are you talking about just the Clippers series? 

We know the Mavs decided to use him that way based on the gameplan (which almost worked btw). And defensively they did even worse to Gobert. 

Again THJ is also a really bad defender. and always has been. He got abused constantly in that series too. There is reason to hope KP is a solid defender again.
I think that people are wildly overreacting to the Clippers series and think that was how KP played this year.

KP had the worst net rating among all rotation players this season. It wasn´t just the Clippers series. And yes THJ is not a good defender but he wasn´t horrible for most of the season. Not the smartest team defender but at least okay as an on ball defender. He actually had better defensive tracking numbers than DFS or Maxi in the series against the Clippers. KP on the other hand was a solid -7.6 on defense for the Mavs in the regular season. That´s all time bad for a big. He still provided some value on offense but the honest truth is that the Mavs played better when he wasn´t on the floor. Center is the most important defensive position. Nearly impossible to have a good team defense with a giant liability like KP in the middle.

(07-23-2021, 09:26 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]The one that had KP put up career high in #s efficiency wise and the same ppg as his 1st year here? 
Or are you talking about just the Clippers series? 

We know the Mavs decided to use him that way based on the gameplan (which almost worked btw). And defensively they did even worse to Gobert. 

Again THJ is also a really bad defender. and always has been. He got abused constantly in that series too. There is reason to hope KP is a solid defender again.
I think that people are wildly overreacting to the Clippers series and think that was how KP played this year.

I can probably find stats that make KP look horrible too.  I'd rather watch the games and see that he's turned into just as bad of a defender as THJ, that he has no offensive game in the post, that he played in 43 of the 72 games the past season, that he has no flow with Luka on offense.  And that's not even looking at the playoff series against the Clippers.  I think better days are ahead for KP but I just don't see it with the Luka pairing.

And let's not act like this is an either or situation for KP and THJ.  My dream scenario for the start of the season is for both of those guys to be playing for someone else.

(07-23-2021, 09:52 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I can probably find stats that make KP look horrible too.  I'd rather watch the games and see that he's turned into just as bad of a defender as THJ, that he has no offensive game in the post, that he played in 43 of the 72 games the past season, that he has no flow with Luka on offense.  And that's not even looking at the playoff series against the Clippers.  I think better days are ahead for KP but I just don't see it with the Luka pairing.

And let's not act like this is an either or situation for KP and THJ.  My dream scenario for the start of the season is for both of those guys to be playing for someone else.

To be fair to KP, alot of those games were missed at the start of the season and injury management. During a normal calendar year, KP misses 0 games to start the year and he probably doesn't miss that many games for rest on BTB nights. That being said, he did have two different stretches where he had injuries that made him miss more than just a few games.

He was no doubt a bad defender as THJ last year. But there's a career of that for THJ and one short season with all sorts of stuff going on for KP. 
Again KP was good offensively this year. The offensive issues came in the Clippers series. There's been some clunkiness offensively at times the last few years. I think that's 100% an issue with the starting lineup around them. It's a bunch of bench guys being forced into starting roles. And the end result is Luka being a more ball dominant version of Harden at times.

(07-23-2021, 09:37 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]KP had the worst net rating among all rotation players this season. It wasn´t just the Clippers series. And yes THJ is not a good defender but he wasn´t horrible for most of the season. Not the smartest team defender but at least okay as an on ball defender. He actually had better defensive tracking numbers than DFS or Maxi in the series against the Clippers. KP on the other hand was a solid -7.6 on defense for the Mavs in the regular season. That´s all time bad for a big. He still provided some value on offense but the honest truth is that the Mavs played better when he wasn´t on the floor. Center is the most important defensive position. Nearly impossible to have a good team defense with a giant liability like KP in the middle.

THJ does indeed try hard but we've been getting torched by perimeter guys his entire time here. More than anything him and Luka as a starting backcourt may be the worst defensive backcourt in the league if you are playing them straight up with the other guards defensively at least. We tend to hide Luka by not doing that. 

And of course he had better #s than those guys. He wasn't guarding Kawhi and Paul George haha. The role guys kept going off tho which he was guarding alot of the time. 

I agree KP was bad defensively. Not arguing that at all. He was horrible. And so was Hardaway in that series. When you get matched up against role guys and they are going off on you... that's a problem. 

There is a chance KP is back to a solid defender next year. There is 0 chance Hardaway is. There's also a chance, KP improve his overall offensive game. Hardaway probably isn't improving much more offensively.

(07-23-2021, 10:46 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]THJ does indeed try hard but we've been getting torched by perimeter guys his entire time here. More than anything him and Luka as a starting backcourt may be the worst defensive backcourt in the league if you are playing them straight up with the other guards defensively at least. We tend to hide Luka by not doing that. 

And of course he had better #s than those guys. He wasn't guarding Kawhi and Paul George haha. The role guys kept going off tho which he was guarding alot of the time. 

I agree KP was bad defensively. Not arguing that at all. He was horrible. And so was Hardaway in that series. When you get matched up against role guys and they are going off on you... that's a problem. 

There is a chance KP is back to a solid defender next year. There is 0 chance Hardaway is. There's also a chance, KP improve his overall offensive game. Hardaway probably isn't improving much more offensively.

I mentioned the tracking data because it shows the individual match up numbers and THJ/Luka had more success than DFS/Maxi when they defended Kawhi or PG. You are right that THJ is not the best defender but I actually thought that he was the best among the mentioned guys against the Clippers. And as you mentioned. He plays hard and hustles. Finished 7th in total charges drawn this season.

I absolutely agree that the Mavs perimeter defense is a big weakness but it goes beyond the individual ability of the mentioned players. It´s not possible to stop guys like Kawhi or PG one on one. That´s why the center is so important. He is supposed to be the main help defender. Just look at teams with elite rim protection or guys that can switch the pick and roll. Defenders can play more agressive on ball defense because they have someone behind them. That´s how Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles this season or Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson last season turned into plus defenders. Smart players with some physical limitations that can make an impact on defense in the right scheme but not if they are left on an island against the best iso scorers in the league.

That´s what happened in Dallas. No help defense. Drop defense in the pick and roll. Defendere gets beaten. Layup/dunk. Defender cannot get over the pick. Open shot.

But we saw what happened when KP was out. They played a more switch heavy scheme and started the season with the 2nd ranked defense (first nine games without KP). Same trend continued during the regular season. Mavs won a game against the Jazz with a Kleber/Melli front court that completly shut down the Jazz pick and roll.
Mind you that it is not all about KP. Coaches are to blame as well. They tried a lot of things and realized that they couldn´t play the switch heavy scheme with KP. Felt like they just reverted back to the 19/20 scheme with a worse version of KP. They also tried to hide him and started to pre rotate the pick and roll. Asking DFS or Kleber to switch onto the screener and keep KP out of the pick and roll.
In the end nothing really worked and the series against the Clippers exposed the mentioned weaknesses even more.

Question is how the new staff will fix this. Can KP improve? Can they find a scheme that can hide his lack of mobilty? Is it even worth it to try or is it smarter to just go with defensive minded role players in the front court?
If they want to go with KP they need to find better perimeter defenders. If they move on and replace him with a better defender the current combination of THJ/DFS could be just fine.

(07-21-2021, 01:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]No. Sign and trade. I believe there is like a 75% chance ATL signs and trades JC to SAS or DAL.

A sign-and-trade sure feels like the most desirable path if Dallas wants to pursue Collins.

But in an over-cap deal, the salary match would be complicated, because Collins in a sign-and-trade would be a "base year" player, ie the Hawks would only get 50% of his salary counted for matching purposes (whereas for Dallas, it would count 100%). It's not nearly as easy as "match a max salary and call it a day."

While it can be solved by adding more salary in a 2-way deal (at least another ~10.5M outgoing by the Hawks), or finding a 3rd team to take some outgoing salary from the Mavs, neither of those options are all that easy, because you end up with added issues of trying to stay within the limits of what each team really wants to give up, while also dealing with appropriate compensation for all teams involved.

The only alternatives force the Mavs to clear cap space, and shoot for Collins via the RFA waiting game, or getting ATL to take some limited compensation in a cap-room sign-and-trade that might include some salary going to ATL, but not more than 17.5M.

(07-24-2021, 02:44 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I mentioned the tracking data because it shows the individual match up numbers and THJ/Luka had more success than DFS/Maxi when they defended Kawhi or PG. You are right that THJ is not the best defender but I actually thought that he was the best among the mentioned guys against the Clippers. And as you mentioned. He plays hard and hustles. Finished 7th in total charges drawn this season.

I absolutely agree that the Mavs perimeter defense is a big weakness but it goes beyond the individual ability of the mentioned players. It´s not possible to stop guys like Kawhi or PG one on one. That´s why the center is so important. He is supposed to be the main help defender. Just look at teams with elite rim protection or guys that can switch the pick and roll. Defenders can play more agressive on ball defense because they have someone behind them. That´s how Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles this season or Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson last season turned into plus defenders. Smart players with some physical limitations that can make an impact on defense in the right scheme but not if they are left on an island against the best iso scorers in the league.

That´s what happened in Dallas. No help defense. Drop defense in the pick and roll. Defendere gets beaten. Layup/dunk. Defender cannot get over the pick. Open shot.

But we saw what happened when KP was out. They played a more switch heavy scheme and started the season with the 2nd ranked defense (first nine games without KP). Same trend continued during the regular season. Mavs won a game against the Jazz with a Kleber/Melli front court that completly shut down the Jazz pick and roll.
Mind you that it is not all about KP. Coaches are to blame as well. They tried a lot of things and realized that they couldn´t play the switch heavy scheme with KP. Felt like they just reverted back to the 19/20 scheme with a worse version of KP. They also tried to hide him and started to pre rotate the pick and roll. Asking DFS or Kleber to switch onto the screener and keep KP out of the pick and roll.
In the end nothing really worked and the series against the Clippers exposed the mentioned weaknesses even more.

Question is how the new staff will fix this. Can KP improve? Can they find a scheme that can hide his lack of mobilty? Is it even worth it to try or is it smarter to just go with defensive minded role players in the front court?
If they want to go with KP they need to find better perimeter defenders. If they move on and replace him with a better defender the current combination of THJ/DFS could be just fine.

Yeah or they just add a talented playmaker so we won't get totally chrushed on the non-Luka-minutes and keep him fresh for the forth quarter.

The defense might have been bad - but the real problem was, that we couldn't score outside of Luka,THJ and KP (and him only when the Clipps let him a piece of room and forgot to foul him.)

(07-24-2021, 06:01 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]A sign-and-trade sure feels like the most desirable path if Dallas wants to pursue Collins.

But in an over-cap deal, the salary match would be complicated, because Collins in a sign-and-trade would be a "base year" player, ie the Hawks would only get 50% of his salary counted for matching purposes (whereas for Dallas, it would count 100%). It's not nearly as easy as "match a max salary and call it a day."

While it can be solved by adding more salary in a 2-way deal (at least another ~10.5M outgoing by the Hawks), or finding a 3rd team to take some outgoing salary from the Mavs, neither of those options are all that easy, because you end up with added issues of trying to stay within the limits of what each team really wants to give up, while also dealing with appropriate compensation for all teams involved.

The only alternatives force the Mavs to clear cap space, and shoot for Collins via the RFA waiting game, or getting ATL to take some limited compensation in a cap-room sign-and-trade that might include some salary going to ATL, but not more than 17.5M.

Thanks for the details on this.

So basically the Mavs need like ~$10M in capspace to absorb JC in a sign and trade....OR they need to orchestrate a more complicated trade to cover that difference and stay over the cap?

That's unfortunate. Was pipe dreaming that the Mavs could stay over the cap and get JC pretty easily.

(07-24-2021, 07:14 AM)Mapka Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah or they just add a talented playmaker so we won't get totally chrushed on the non-Luka-minutes and keep him fresh for the forth quarter.

The defense might have been bad - but the real problem was, that we couldn't score outside of Luka,THJ and KP (and him only when the Clipps let him a piece of room and forgot to foul him.)

That´s a problem as well but not the biggest one. At least in my opinion. The Mavs should learn from their mistakes and try to find the right balance. Not rebuild the early 00s team. Did not win? Add more scoring. Lose again? More scoring. Took them nearly a decade to realizie that it wasn´t working. Once they switched to a more defensive minded approach they made two finals within five years.

Some interesting numbers. The Mavs offensive rating against the Clippers was better than the playoff O-rating for both teams that made the finals.

1th Blazers 121.6
9th Mavs 115.5
10thSuns 114.7
11th Bucks 112.9

The best offense was eliminated in the first round. The best playoff defense won the championship. A team that had the right answer for any kind of offense. Overall scoring numbers might be higher and the pace is faster but defense still matters. Maybe more than ever. The way offensive schemes evolved in the last couple of years even one defensive liability can be to much. A good offense will hunt the matchup all game long.

Instead of thinking. If they would have made a few more shots they would have won we should focus on the fact that the Mavs couldn´t get any stops. No matter the circumstances. Clippers scored at will. Mavs gave up 61.5% TS and did not force any TOV (10.1 TOV%). And it was the same story in the regular season. Except for the first few games without KP and a small stretch midseason the Mavs ranked among the worst defensive teams in the league. They finished the season with the 20th ranked defense.  In the last 20 years only one team with a similar defensive ranking won a championship. The Lakers in 2001. And that was more about them coasting in the regular season (ranked 1st in 2000). Come playoff time when Shaq actually played some defense they were elite. Second worst defense that won it all was GS in 2018. Ranked 11th in the regular season. Another case of a defending champion coasting and turning it on in the playoffs (ranked 2nd in the previous season).
Bottom line...Need to be at least top 10 in both defense and offense.

By the way. It is the same for offense. Pistons are the only "bad" offense among championship teams in the last 20 years. But the Mavs already have a good offense (finished 1st and 9th in the last two seasons) and with Luka on the roster I would make the good old Dirk case. In a worst case scenario (last season with THJ and KP as the 2nd/3rd option and bad spacing) he will lead them to a top 10 offense. Give him some shooters and a pick and roll partner and top 3 is very likely.

I think the most important part about defense is coaching. Maybe they already made the right adjustments (don´t think so. Kidd´s schemes were horrible when he coached the Bucks). If that´s not the case they need to make some roster changes. Easiest way to fix the defense. Remove the biggest liability (KP). But it is obviously not that simple. We already watched a failed attempt to update the defense last season. They added one way defense players that couldn´t stay on the floor because they tanked the offense. Really hope that they can add some real two-way players this season.

(07-24-2021, 09:49 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]That´s a problem as well but not the biggest one. At least in my opinion. The Mavs should learn from their mistakes and try to find the right balance. Not rebuild the early 00s team. Did not win? Add more scoring. Lose again? More scoring. Took them nearly a decade to realizie that it wasn´t working. Once they switched to a more defensive minded approach they made two finals within five years.

Some interesting numbers. The Mavs offensive rating against the Clippers was better than the playoff O-rating for both teams that made the finals.

1th Blazers 121.6
9th Mavs 115.5
10thSuns 114.7
11th Bucks 112.9

The best offense was eliminated in the first round. The best playoff defense won the championship. A team that had the right answer for any kind of offense. Overall scoring numbers might be higher and the pace is faster but defense still matters. Maybe more than ever. The way offensive schemes evolved in the last couple of years even one defensive liability can be to much. A good offense will hunt the matchup all game long.

Instead of thinking. If they would have made a few more shots they would have won we should focus on the fact that the Mavs couldn´t get any stops. No matter the circumstances. Clippers scored at will. Mavs gave up 61.5% TS and did not force any TOV (10.1 TOV%). And it was the same story in the regular season. Except for the first few games without KP and a small stretch midseason the Mavs ranked among the worst defensive teams in the league. They finished the season with the 20th ranked defense.  In the last 20 years only one team with a similar defensive ranking won a championship. The Lakers in 2001. And that was more about them coasting in the regular season (ranked 1st in 2000). Come playoff time when Shaq actually played some defense they were elite. Second worst defense that won it all was GS in 2018. Ranked 11th in the regular season. Another case of a defending champion coasting and turning it on in the playoffs (ranked 2nd in the previous season).
Bottom line...Need to be at least top 10 in both defense and offense.

By the way. It is the same for offense. Pistons are the only "bad" offense among championship teams in the last 20 years. But the Mavs already have a good offense (finished 1st and 9th in the last two seasons) and with Luka on the roster I would make the good old Dirk case. In a worst case scenario (last season with THJ and KP as the 2nd/3rd option and bad spacing) he will lead them to a top 10 offense. Give him some shooters and a pick and roll partner and top 3 is very likely.

I think the most important part about defense is coaching. Maybe they already made the right adjustments (don´t think so. Kidd´s schemes were horrible when he coached the Bucks). If that´s not the case they need to make some roster changes. Easiest way to fix the defense. Remove the biggest liability (KP). But is obviously not that simple. We already watched a failed attempt to update the defense last season. They added one way defense players that couldn´t stay on the floor because they tanked the offense. Really hope that they can add some real two-way players this season.

I'd love to have someone stopping the Kawhi ugly run into your defender until he loses his stance than hit every shot or get a freethrow otherwise offense.
But Giannis prefered to win with his team.

I'm pretty sure we won't win the Chip with defense.
There are some teams you just can't outdefense.

Having Luka it has to be on the offensive end.

Our defense was a absolute disaster sometimes but ok in other scenes even with KP.

Not hitting anything on offense made us crater on defense too.

Don't get me wrong I take a playmaker who can help us on defense in a second.

I think we made our defense worse with adding "defensive players" and gutted the offense this way.

(07-24-2021, 09:49 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I think the most important part about defense is coaching. Maybe they already made the right adjustments (don´t think so. Kidd´s schemes were horrible when he coached the Bucks). If that´s not the case they need to make some roster changes. Easiest way to fix the defense. Remove the biggest liability (KP). But is obviously not that simple. We already watched a failed attempt to update the defense last season. They added one way defense players that couldn´t stay on the floor because they tanked the offense. Really hope that they can add some real two-way players this season.

Great post DFS98! Only push back I have about it is that defense is just as if not more symbiotic as offense. We got more defensive players last year, but the problem was either not the right players, not enough defensive players, the coaching or some combination of all of those. 

The 2 biggest switches were THJ to JRich and Powell to Maxi in the starting lineup. Those switches didn't have the impact we were looking for on the overall scheme, however, I will say I really think our defense looked much improved for the majority of the season as far as eye test. 

I think most of us have been clamoring for 2-way players for a long time. Get them wherever you can find them. Develop them, trade for them, pick them up in FA. I really hope that is where Nico goes with this, cause you are right, we have to be top 10 in both offense AND defense and it's hard to imagine any Luka-led team being outside top 10.

Main pushback I want to put out there is KP being the "savior" of everyone's deficiency isn't all that fair to him. He for sure has to be better than last year (as he has been every year before and there is no sign that degeneration is in play) but so does the whole team. This is why I don't think just "getting rid of KP" is THE answer. I admit that he wasn't even much of a "help" to that extent let alone a "savior" last year, so you guys are right that he needs to improve there.

I like the Igor hire for offense, I really hope Kidd gets a defensive guru in one of his top assistant spots as well.

Yeah right... With what?

https://twitter.com/HoopAnalysisNet/stat...2530285568

(07-24-2021, 10:27 AM)Mapka Wrote: [ -> ]I'm pretty sure we won't win the Chip with defense.
There are some teams you just can't outdefense.

Having Luka it has to be on the offensive end.

Disagree and the Dirk era is the best example. They didn´t win anything with more offense next to him. Won it all when they build a defensive minded roster around him. That´s the beauty of guys like Luka or Dirk. They can carry a roster to a top 10 offense no matter the supporting cast. Giving the coaches/GM a unique opportunity to surround them with elite defense.

(07-24-2021, 11:33 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah right... With what?

https://twitter.com/HoopAnalysisNet/stat...2530285568

Every team wants our role players...

(07-24-2021, 11:33 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Disagree and the Dirk era is the best example. They didn´t win anything with more offense next to him. Won it all when they build a defensive minded roster around him. That´s the beauty of guys like Luka or Dirk. They can carry a roster to a top 10 offense no matter the supporting cast. Giving the coaches/GM a unique opportunity to surround them with elite defense.

Good point - but also:
JKidd, JJB, Jet and Dirk himself 

We have Luka, Brunson and THJ that's just not enough.

Also everybody on this team was a threasd to score if left any room.

(07-24-2021, 11:33 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah right... With what?

https://twitter.com/HoopAnalysisNet/stat...2530285568

Friendly reminder that Twitter is an open platform, and LegionHoopsRoss is most similar to the random anonymous "insiders" on various NBA message boards. I've followed him for years for kicks, and this time of year he has a habit of throwing pretty much anything against the wall. So read this stuff for fun, but don't get your hopes up.

(07-24-2021, 12:13 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]Friendly reminder that Twitter is an open platform, and LegionHoopsRoss is most similar to the random anonymous "insiders" on various NBA message boards. I've followed him for years for kicks, and this time of year he has a habit of throwing pretty much anything against the wall. So read this stuff for fun, but don't get your hopes up.

I'm glad he posted that so I can point out how ludicrous it is when people start believing him in a few weeks haha.