(01-06-2022, 07:43 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Basketball Reference
Interesting, they must have a different calculation method, because off rating numbers there are much different than at nba.com
(01-06-2022, 07:57 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting, they must have a different calculation method, because off rating numbers there are much different than at nba.com
NBA.com I believe does the actual on-court offensive rating for the team.
Basketball reference does some sort of estimate that I am not sure how it is calculated.
I personally have never felt like the basketball reference ORating and DRatings have passed the smell test.
(01-06-2022, 07:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Just to be clear, we are both picking the stat set that most closely reflects our own eye test. It is probably good that we have narrowed in on the two stats that surveyed the best. It is also probably good that we are trying to marry eye-test and stats. But we are probably still dabbling in created truth (which we once called opinion).
I'm not sure a reasonable eye test would agree that KP at 4.3 (7th best in the league) is 145-percent more valuable than Luka at 1.76 (143rd in the league behind Mike Muscala). At least EPM treats them as equals (BTW, I really like the way EPM gives a raw number and a percentile).
Lebron has Powell as a better defender than Bullock? Maybe so, Powell has the better D-Rating, DBPM and D-Win Score, but my eye test would have picked Bullock (like EPM did) as the better defender.
I can't buy into Powell's O-Lebron of -1.22 at all. Powell has the best O-Rating of the entire team. His O-Win Score is second behind Brunson and once again this season he has the highest TS% (and the highest 3% among regulars 
). Powell in the 71st percentile offensively at EPM makes much more sense to me than whatever percentile a -1.22 Lebron gets you.
One thing that is important to point out is that when assessing these stats to the eye test, I am not just using this year. For example EPM has Powell ranked better defensively than Bullock in most years (and have them basically even this season). Honestly both metrics rate Powell higher defensively than the eye test warrants. I still have not figure out why that is. Maybe he just looks useless but his size and positional knowledge means he impacts the game better than it looks? As far as defense goes, in what universe is Luka above average in defense this season?
Also, TS% is not that important of a stat for somebody who only takes a few shots a game (mostly dunks). What Lebron is saying is that when he is on the floor the offense suffers, and I think a lot of us believe that meets the eye test. Part of it is not his fault as some of it is due to the dysfunction of KP trying to post up with Powell on the floor.
The KP love does seem a little over the top. He has been screaming up the EPM metric as well. Part of this (and the discrepancies in general) are due to the limited sample of this partial season. They will likely merge closer together as the sample grows.
(01-06-2022, 08:21 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]One thing that is important to point out is that when assessing these stats to the eye test, I am not just using this year. For example EPM has Powell ranked better defensively than Bullock in most years (and have them basically even this season). Honestly both metrics rate Powell higher defensively than the eye test warrants. I still have not figure out why that is. Maybe he just looks useless but his size and positional knowledge means he impacts the game better than it looks?
I have a theory on this. If you are watching the game, you often see the end of a scoring play and he's often the closest guy to some ugly and memorable scoring plays by the other team. It looks really bad at times.
However, if you watch Powell instead, you see a guy that is all over the place helping (too much sometimes). He does a lot of impactful little things that don't get noticed if you aren't watching him the whole time. Sometimes that help he's providing others is such that he can't recover and you see the ugly result I referenced before. But his hustle and mobility are pluses.
Interesting thing I've noticed lately. Powell isn't helping as much when matched against top guys (I'm thinking Towns and Jokic most recently). He played both quite credibly (no one stops those guys). Part of the reason was he stuck with them more tightly (or was allowed to...we don't know what the scheme actually calls for). We've also made some changes in how Powell is allowed to deal with the PnR that I like. I much prefer jumping the screen for Powell rather than drop coverage (another way Powell looks awful is when we play drop coverage and a ball handler gets up a head of steam).
BTW, thanks for the well reasoned and well articulated post.
(01-06-2022, 08:02 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]NBA.com I believe does the actual on-court offensive rating for the team.
Basketball reference does some sort of estimate that I am not sure how it is calculated.
I personally have never felt like the basketball reference ORating and DRatings have passed the smell test.
There is a link at the end of the definition below that speaks to methodology for Calculating Individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings. I'm not sure I'm in a position to judge whether NBA.com or BB-Ref (and Dean Oliver) are the better point of reference:
(01-06-2022, 08:43 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I have a theory on this. If you are watching the game, you often see the end of a scoring play and he's often the closest guy to some ugly and memorable scoring plays by the other team. It looks really bad at times.
However, if you watch Powell instead, you see a guy that is all over the place helping (too much sometimes). He does a lot of impactful little things that don't get noticed if you aren't watching him the whole time. Sometimes that help he's providing others is such that he can't recover and you see the ugly result I referenced before. But his hustle and mobility are pluses.
Interesting thing I've noticed lately. Powell isn't helping as much when matched against top guys (I'm thinking Towns and Jokic most recently). He played both quite credibly (no one stops those guys). Part of the reason was he stuck with them more tightly (or was allowed to...we don't know what the scheme actually calls for). We've also made some changes in how Powell is allowed to deal with the PnR that I like. I much prefer jumping the screen for Powell rather than drop coverage (another way Powell looks awful is when we play drop coverage and a ball handler gets up a head of steam).
BTW, thanks for the well reasoned and well articulated post.
Great post.
I agree that Powell is an overlooked and underrated defender. The worst part of his game is when he meets the ball at or near the restricted area and he's prone to looking pretty weak, physically, in that situation. But, while that seems to be the only thing a lot of fans notice about his defensive game, I've long thought his strengths (intelligent and efficient movement) prevent scoring and even discourage shot attempts by rerouting the ball.
And to further this, I think many players' defensive contributions get overlooked routinely because a large portion of the viewing audience only recognizes how effectively each defender pressures shot attempts when their man takes them. In reality, the defender's primary goal is to prevent their man from getting to the place they want to reach in order to shoot or even to deny their man an angle to receive the pass cleanly. There are so many facets of defense that go unnoticed. Often, the guy who gets credit for contesting the shot well is really benefiting more from his teammates' hard work denying the action's goal than he is from his own skills.
If a player lets his man slip away or gets overpowered at the end of 3-4 possessions in one game, he'll get roasted around here. But, what if that same player prevented 19 "first option" shots from even being attempted over the course of the same game?
(01-06-2022, 09:01 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Great post.
I agree that Powell is an overlooked and underrated defender. The worst part of his game is when he meets the ball at or near the restricted area and he's prone to looking pretty weak, physically, in that situation. But, while that seems to be the only thing a lot of fans notice about his defensive game, I've long thought his strengths (intelligent and efficient movement) prevent scoring and even discourage shot attempts by rerouting the ball.
And to further this, I think many players' defensive contributions get overlooked routinely because a large portion of the viewing audience only recognizes how effectively each defender pressures shot attempts when their man takes them. In reality, the defender's primary goal is to prevent their man from getting to the place they want to reach in order to shoot or even to deny their man an angle to receive the pass cleanly. There are so many facets of defense that go unnoticed. Often, the guy who gets credit for contesting the shot well is really benefiting more from his teammates' hard work denying the action's goal than he is from his own skills.
If a player lets his man slip away or gets overpowered at the end of 3-4 possessions in one game, he'll get roasted around here. But, what if that same player prevented 19 "first option" shots from even being attempted over the course of the same game?
Can't wait to see DougieFresh response to this thread.
(01-06-2022, 09:01 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Great post.
I agree that Powell is an overlooked and underrated defender. The worst part of his game is when he meets the ball at or near the restricted area and he's prone to looking pretty weak, physically, in that situation. But, while that seems to be the only thing a lot of fans notice about his defensive game, I've long thought his strengths (intelligent and efficient movement) prevent scoring and even discourage shot attempts by rerouting the ball.
And to further this, I think many players' defensive contributions get overlooked routinely because a large portion of the viewing audience only recognizes how effectively each defender pressures shot attempts when their man takes them. In reality, the defender's primary goal is to prevent their man from getting to the place they want to reach in order to shoot or even to deny their man an angle to receive the pass cleanly. There are so many facets of defense that go unnoticed. Often, the guy who gets credit for contesting the shot well is really benefiting more from his teammates' hard work denying the action's goal than he is from his own skills.
If a player lets his man slip away or gets overpowered at the end of 3-4 possessions in one game, he'll get roasted around here. But, what if that same player prevented 19 "first option" shots from even being attempted over the course of the same game?
I’m one that absolutely hates watching him try and keep a big out from where they want to go. It’s not just on a post up, it’s about getting them away from rebounds and generally stopping those types from wreaking havok on our team. That big is for sure a dying breed, but they are still out there, and there are plenty of top teams who employ at least 1 player that can do that to him (or any of our bigs).
(01-06-2022, 10:58 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I’m one that absolutely hates watching him try and keep a big out from where they want to go. It’s not just on a post up, it’s about getting them away from rebounds and generally stopping those types from wreaking havok on our team. That big is for sure a dying breed, but they are still out there, and there are plenty of top teams who employ at least 1 player that can do that to him (or any of our bigs).
All of our big men are "finesse" rebounders. It drives me crazy.
(01-06-2022, 10:58 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I’m one that absolutely hates watching him try and keep a big out from where they want to go. It’s not just on a post up, it’s about getting them away from rebounds and generally stopping those types from wreaking havok on our team. That big is for sure a dying breed, but they are still out there, and there are plenty of top teams who employ at least 1 player that can do that to him (or any of our bigs).
I just think we live in a world where your "big" has to spend more time covering ground and even guarding forwards, wings and guards than they actually find themselves in the situation you're describing. Not just because they are a dying breed, but because of
why they're a dying breed.
Powell is shooting threes better this year, lets see if that continues. I feel like he has been shooting free throws better, but I just looked at the stats and he is pretty much at his average. I just feel like he is making them at a higher percentage.
I still feel his ideal role is your fourth big. I think pairing him with Maxi while a player not on the roster is paired with KP. There would be some overlap, but I think Powell as an off the bench backup big is his best role.
(01-07-2022, 08:39 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Powell is shooting threes better this year, lets see if that continues. I feel like he has been shooting free throws better, but I just looked at the stats and he is pretty much at his average. I just feel like he is making them at a higher percentage.
I still feel his ideal role is your fourth big. I think pairing him with Maxi while a player not on the roster is paired with KP. There would be some overlap, but I think Powell as an off the bench backup big is his best role.
I don't disagree with this. The trick is finding that "player not on the roster".
With that said, the Powell/Maxi pairing hasn't been good this year like it has in years past. Neither has KP/Maxi. I've been looking at the season in thirds to try to identify trends. The two Maxi pairings are negative for the full season and from 11/15 until now. The Powell/Maxi pairing is negative since the Team D started to turn around 12/12. The Maxi/KP pairing is positive since 12/12, but they have only seen two games together for about 14 minutes per game. Lineup data is so jacked up because of injuries and Covid. We've almost played half the season and we don't have much data to work with, especially if you want to eliminate the abysmal first month from the calculations.
(01-07-2022, 09:15 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I don't disagree with this. The trick is finding that "player not on the roster".
"player not on the roster" to fit with KP and Luka is the real unicorn. If they find that player while keeping their depth, I believe they are not far from a championship team. Finding that player is very tricky.
As far as Dwight and Maxi playing together....thanks that is interesting.
(01-07-2022, 09:15 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]The Maxi/KP pairing is positive since 12/12, but they have only seen two games together for about 14 minutes per game.
I am desperate to see a commitment to this pairing for at least 10 games or so (unless KP gets traded before there's time for that). I remember Kidd saying they were going to get around to trying this after WCS got his shot in the starting lineup, and then the covid stuff happened.
I really think it's the best way to go with the current roster on both sides of the ball. Powell as a 3rd big (who in theory can spell either of them off of the bench) is great, imo. The only problem, I guess, is that on nights in the regular season when you want to use 4 bigs (I don't believe the rotation will go that far in the playoffs) the inevitable minutes during which Powell and either MBrown or Chriss (hopefully Chriss) don't seem super ideal.
(01-07-2022, 12:02 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]
I really think it's the best way to go with the current roster on both sides of the ball. Powell as a 3rd big (who in theory can spell either of them off of the bench) is great, imo. The only problem, I guess, is that on nights in the regular season when you want to use 4 bigs (I don't believe the rotation will go that far in the playoffs) the inevitable minutes during which Powell and either MBrown or Chriss (hopefully Chriss) don't seem super ideal.
Unless Powell and Chriss continue to hit over 40% of their 3’s.
Regarding the discussion surrounding Powell's defense:
I have given the guy a hard time for years and I have to admit, after watching him live against the Warriors, I have to retract a bit. This was the first time I sat baseline which is a totally different angle (obviously) and he looked way better on defense, than I would have expected. He is really active, communicating and fighting. So I kind of buy into the narrative, that he often lookes bad because of being so active and helpful on defense in the first place.
Houston is so bad defensively they're literally off the chart.
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