(08-16-2021, 04:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]1) I think Maxi is already at his ceiling, which is a good NBA player, fringe starter.
2) I think LM's ceiling is a 3rd banana on a championship team.
3) I think LM already has the single most important elite skill in the NBA: shooting. He shot 48%/40%/83% this past season.
4) I think LM has potential to be a neutral defender (holding his own) and I think he has potential to expand his offensive game and be a better roll man and even generate some offense.
5) I do think LM could fizzle out and not really ever get much better than he is (fringe starter), but I think giving up Maxi (if you HAVE to) is a no brainer IMO.
There is a whole lot of projection going on here for a guy that has been in the league 4 years, shown limited if any improvement, and has been demoted to the bench. I realize he is young, but generally when you project growth in a 4 year player its because you have seen some level of progression.
If you are sending out Maxi for LM that means you are probably salary matching somewhere close to his 15 mil asking price. That is an overpay unless he shows some significant improvement you are hoping for. Meanwhile, Maxi is an asset on his contract, and much better fit for this teams needs. We are already a top 10 offense and a below average defense. We better have a really good reason to dump one of our few good defensive rotational players.
And the odds of LM reaching "Third banana on championship team" are virtually zero. His defense at best will be passable, and he will never be able to protect the rim. He can't create for himself or others. I'm not even ready to call him an elite shooter yet. He has had one good season in that area, and most of it was due to taking more wide open shots. I realize he may have some upside, but I feel like people are talking themselves into more than is really there, and the market seems to agree.
(08-16-2021, 06:55 PM)TXBamanut Wrote: [ -> ]Question (in my best Dwight Schrute voice)... When you say two-fer, in the above scenario, we are sending out more than 2 players and getting Dragic AND Markkanen back? Then we would have one roster spot open when the dust settles in that scenario?
Yes 3 for 2. Yes open roster spot (but no room for DSJ “yet”).
I don’t want to send Maxi for Lauri not because I think Maxi is indispensable, but because I don’t want to give one of our few assets away for Lauri. Yes Lauri does have an elite skillset but a young guy with an elite skillset falls out of favor for a reason. Grass is always greener on the other side.
Get Lauri or someone else if you can without giving up Maxi. Then use Maxi for another move. That’s what good organizations do. The Mavs have historically not maximized assets. They need to change that if they want to start doing things differently from the last regime.
(08-16-2021, 07:32 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]the odds of LM reaching "Third banana on championship team" are virtually zero.
I would say it is low odds he reaches his ceiling, as it is for every player. But...
1) I believe Maxi at 30 is at his ceiling. I am VERY confident there isn't "more" to him. If you say "virtually zero" for LM, then ZERO for Maxi being more than he is.
2) LM is 5 years younger than Maxi and is ALREADY in the equivalent place in the NBA: fringe starter. Both of them can currently have arguments for why they should start, but they are by no means no-brainer starters.
3) LM has 5 years to try to raise his play above "fringe starter" and he has a) NBA athleticism and 2) NBA level shooting.
It is certainly low odds for LM to reach his true potential....but I think it is VERY likely he at least gets to "solid starter" in the next few years. Give me THAT over the ceiling-ed out Maxi every time.
(08-16-2021, 09:13 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]You mean 45 days?
Damn...yep...I guess I was hoping when typing that..
(08-16-2021, 09:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I would say it is low odds he reaches his ceiling, as it is for every player. But...
1) I believe Maxi at 30 is at his ceiling. I am VERY confident there isn't "more" to him. If you say "virtually zero" for LM, then ZERO for Maxi being more than he is.
2) LM is 5 years younger than Maxi and is ALREADY in the equivalent place in the NBA: fringe starter. Both of them can currently have arguments for why they should start, but they are by no means no-brainer starters.
3) LM has 5 years to try to raise his play above "fringe starter" and he has a) NBA athleticism and 2) NBA level shooting.
It is certainly low odds for LM to reach his true potential....but I think it is VERY likely he at least gets to "solid starter" in the next few years. Give me THAT over the ceiling-ed out Maxi every time.
So if my choice is 8 mil for a fringe starter that is a very good fit, vs 15 mil for a fringe starter who is a bad fit but might make it to "solid starter" (very likely seems overly strong/hopeful for someone who has show little growth in 4 years) then give me the 8 mil fit.
(08-16-2021, 08:03 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Yes 3 for 2. Yes open roster spot (but no room for DSJ “yet”).
You knew where I was going....lol Telegraphed that pass.
(08-16-2021, 10:49 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]So if my choice is 8 mil for a fringe starter that is a very good fit, vs 15 mil for a fringe starter who is a bad fit but might make it to "solid starter" (very likely seems overly strong/hopeful for someone who has show little growth in 4 years) then give me the 8 mil fit.
I can appreciate this POV. Where do you stand on Powell + Green for Markannen @15M?
(08-16-2021, 10:49 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]So if my choice is 8 mil for a fringe starter that is a very good fit, vs 15 mil for a fringe starter who is a bad fit but might make it to "solid starter" (very likely seems overly strong/hopeful for someone who has show little growth in 4 years) then give me the 8 mil fit.
To be clear. I have not been arguing price point at all in these recent posts. I am just arguing generically that I would prefer LM over Maxi.
I have said elsewhere that I am not a big fan of LM at $15M per. I am 100% in at the TPE level. But my interest wanes every notch you move up from there. If it happens at $15M, I will be comfortable at the end of the day, but not thrilled. If it happens at the TPE level I will be singing Nico's praises.
Luka / Kleber + 6.8
Luka / DFS + 3.7
Luka / Powell + 2.7
Luka / KP + 0.5
KP / Kleber + 8.1
KP / WCS + 3.9
KP / Powell -10
Those numbers do scare me to trade Maxi.
Fine with Markannen if it's for Green+TPE but any higher and I'm out.
(08-17-2021, 01:59 AM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]Fine with Markannen if it's for Green+TPE but any higher and I'm out.
Same. Losing Maxi or Brunson would be too high of a cost for me. Powell, Burke, Green, Terry, and the TPE are the assets I'd be willing to move. Get Markkanen with some combination of those players, maybe Dragic too if possible and let's roll.
Green, Terry, WCS, Burke plus future 2nd round pick is my absolute ceiling for acquiring Lauri Markkanen.
Maxi is an unselfish team player, who provides good to elite perimeter shooting when shots are created for him and plays very good team defense and also individual defense in the right matchup. His big weakness is paint scoring. He's not a player you ask to go out for 15+pts every night, but he also does not demand any attention or amount of attempts. He's the perfect 5th starter glue guy or high minute bench player.
Lauri is a great shooter on a higher volume and also takes it into paint way more often than Maxi. However, his defense clearly worse than Maxi's. The question is now much scoring volume will he get (and how will he handle it if it goes down) when mainly coming from the bench in Dallas, as he can only start when KP is not playing.
I love Markkanen at TPE level with Maxi staying with Dallas. See what he can provide to the team and how he fits, if it does not work he's still a great asset.
I hate losing Maxi for a $15m/y Markkannen, that is starter money and makes him a neutral to negative asset.
(08-16-2021, 08:20 PM)hakeemfaan Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t want to send Maxi for Lauri not because I think Maxi is indispensable, but because I don’t want to give one of our few assets away for Lauri. Yes Lauri does have an elite skillset but a young guy with an elite skillset falls out of favor for a reason. Grass is always greener on the other side.
Get Lauri or someone else if you can without giving up Maxi. Then use Maxi for another move. That’s what good organizations do. The Mavs have historically not maximized assets. They need to change that if they want to start doing things differently from the last regime.
What do you think Maxi Kleber´s trade value is? An active All-Star? If it becomes a straight swap of Kleber + Burke vs. Markkanen, it also becomes a salary dump of Burke that creates an additional roster spot.
Also, if I´m Nico, maybe my thinking is there are only two outcomes:
1. Porzingis returns to form and becomes the defensive presence of the past, then it´s a good fit with Markkanen.
2. Porzingis does not return to form and I have to sell very low, say Harris+Bamba. At least my C replacement only has to be good at rebounding, shot-blocking and rim protection now, cause I theoretically already have the 20 PPG stretch shooter replacement in-house.
Also if you take Kleber + Porzingis off the 2022/2023 salary cap (Harris +Bamba expirings), we are a Dwight Powell expiring contract away from having $20-25M in capspace next summer.
Let´s not forget this is not Nico´s team yet. He has no attachment to some of these players.
Additional thinking in that direction...
Maybe it goes even further and Nico already has a deal for Porzingis in place/mind. What if the plan is to move Porzingis to Sacramento for Hield + Holmes, but they have to wait until some pieces are trade package eligible? Generally speaking it seems rather strange that the Kings haven´t shoved some chips into the middle yet, whether it´s for Porzingis or somebody else.
Maxi is one of my favorites. Big guy who has the quickness to guard wings and also smaller Cs, provides rim protection, and also good rim running abilities and his 3 point percentage is very good. And Maxi fits well with any type of big.
What's not to like for a bench big like him?
I also think he'd better this upcoming season, or at least, be better than his Covid plagued year.
I would hate to lose him on a trade, he is the lone true PF on the team and because of this, the Mavs should trade the TPE to "add" to the PFs and not subtract one. Specially one of Maxi's caliber.
But if it came down to a choice between Maxi + Burke for Lauri? My answer is a reluctant yes. Specially if the Mavs do not add Dragic or a playmaker.
The Mavs as currently constructed are full of stand still shooters: THJ is a gunner and would rather release a 3 quickly, Brown may drive more than THJ but he is more of a shoot it first guy, Bullock and DFS aren't the best in creativity and will be there for open shots only. And KP? I would think majority of his shots will still be from the outside and not near the rim. Now Lauri's calling card is still shooting, but this 7 footer can score on a variety of ways, some of which can be unassisted. My best guess is that Sterling and Lauri would be asked to mix things up a bit as they are the most capable dudes to attack on their own and not rely on a Luka assist. Lauri may not start, but he can thrive on a bench role and abuse second units pretty much what Jet has done in the past. It's not like he will be playing for his next contract when he already has a 3 year deal. If Lauri is okay with this plan, then bring him in, if not, just keep Maxi.
Not that I'm expecting a KP injury, but Lauri is one KP week-long absence from ascending to the pecking order. Can't say the same with Maxi.
But again, let me be clear, I hope Lauri is traded for the TPE and not Maxi, or the Mavs can convince the Bulls to take on DP+2 seconds+cash.
(08-17-2021, 04:50 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe it goes even further and Nico already has a deal for Porzingis in place/mind. What if the plan is to move Porzingis to Sacramento for Hield + Holmes, but they have to wait until some pieces are trade package eligible? Generally speaking it seems rather strange that the Kings haven´t shoved some chips into the middle yet, whether it´s for Porzingis or somebody else.
Right here with you.
I think it is important for us to remember that Nico MIGHT be building this team knowing that KP is gone. We cannot evaluate his personnel decisions very easily because of that.
Getting LM and then trading KP for Hield+RH? Holy crap that would be awesome.
(08-17-2021, 06:35 AM)Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo Wrote: [ -> ]But again, let me be clear, I hope Lauri is traded for the TPE and not Maxi, or the Mavs can convince the Bulls to take on DP+2 seconds+cash.
I don´t think anybody will disagree with that. If I had to guess we are at the negotiation stage, where personal terms are agreed between Markkanen and the Mavs, but we don´t know where the trade disagreement between the Mavs and Bulls is.
"Just" Kleber (maybe Burke and a 2nd round pick to offset his negative value) seems to be the common middle ground.
I´m sure the Bulls would like Kleber + protected 1st round pick, while the Mavs would like the TPE + 2nd round pick or even Powell + Burke + two 2nd round picks.