(12-31-2021, 01:32 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I agree, but he's the least needed when everyone is healthy, especially if Josh Green is actually getting a continued shot at rotation minutes. DFS, THJ, Bullock, SBrown, Green, Luka and Brunson all have at least a little overlap with Pinson, role wise. Without Chirss (or WCS) Boban would actually be the third center, at least until they get serious about playing KP there which will never happen because the universe hates me.
Pinson is better than Bullock and Brown and is more comfortable handling the rock than anyone you listed. I wouldn't want Pinson to impact Green's minutes though.
(12-31-2021, 01:35 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Pinson is better than Bullock and Brown and is more comfortable handling the rock than anyone you listed. I wouldn't want Pinson to impact Green's minutes though.
It's cool that you think that, and you might be right (though I don't think he's more comfortable handling the rock than Luka or Brunson), but do you honestly expect him to play in front of any of those guys?
If the conversation is about who the Mavs are going to keep when the dust clears, I don't see it, though I do agree that he has been the most intriguing replacement guy, so far.
(12-31-2021, 01:18 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]It's probably more about WCS than it is Chriss who is a foul machine. Pinson's played the best in my estimation.
Pinson qualifies for a 2-way spot if the Mavs want to keep him. Chriss needs a roster spot and WCS career seems to be over.
(12-31-2021, 01:38 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]It's cool that you think that, and you might be right (though I don't think he's more comfortable handling the rock than Luka or Brunson), but do you honestly expect him to play in front of any of those guys?
If the conversation is about who the Mavs are going to keep when the dust clears, I don't see it, though I do agree that he has been the most intriguing replacement guy, so far.
Doh, I missed your Luka and Brunson on the list. Pinson's upside is pretty limited but he looks comfortable on both ends of the floor.
(12-31-2021, 01:38 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Pinson qualifies for a 2-way spot if the Mavs want to keep him.
This is helpful information. I could see him getting a 2-way, possibly. I'd be into that.
And speaking of being comfortable out there, I don't mind Chriss for the rest of the year. I just hope we don't repeat our WCS mistakes with him.
(12-31-2021, 12:20 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I think it's pretty obvious he's here to replace WCS. I'm shocked the Mavs haven't waived him yet. Hopefully we can find some trade where WCS can be thrown in.
IMHO there's zero chance that WCS is waived before the trade deadline. His expiring contract is too valuable in potential deals. But if he manages to make it past the deadline, all bets are off.
(12-31-2021, 02:12 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]IMHO there's zero chance that WCS is waived before the trade deadline. His expiring contract is too valuable in potential deals. But if he manages to make it past the deadline, all bets are off.
Is there a limit to how many 10-day hardship contracts a player can sign? The deadline is 6 weeks away and the entire Mavs roster is slated to be healthy by early next week.
Chriss needs a roster spot and I'd be surprised if he isn't picked up by a team desperately needing a center like Charlotte or Toronto. Makes me feel like there's a deadline to deal with WCS by the end of Chriss contract (*If there are no more COVID cases), because once he's a free agent I doubt Chriss is going to sit around and wait 5 weeks for the Mavs to deal with WCS and give him a contract.
(12-31-2021, 04:13 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Chriss needs a roster spot
I think so, too.
It will be interesting to see if the Mavs agree.
Mavs On/Off numbers 35 games into the season (42% of the way) for those with 200+ minutes played....
JG: +14.4 (+1.5 O, +12.9 D)
TB: +10.9 (+0.8 O, +10.1 D)
FN: +10.2 (+0.5 O, +9.7 D)
JB: +3.7 (+9.7 O, -5.9 D)
DFS: +2.4 (+6.9 O, -4.4 D)
KP: +1.4 (+0.8 O, +0.6 D)
SB: +0.8 (-3.3 O, +4.1 D)
RB: +0.3 (-4.7 O, +5.0 D)
Maxi: -3.9 (-3.2 O, -0.7 D)
THJ: -4.3 (+2.5 O, -6.8 D)
DP: -7.3 (-2.4 O, -4.9 D)
Luka: -10.8 (-3.5 O, -7.3 D)
(12-31-2021, 10:15 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]Bob?
Boban? Only 95 minutes on court.
Luka is sabotaging KP...which is why the Mavs pulled Luka to stabilize or increase KP numbers.
Luka was not going to make KP look good even if it meant a better player in trade.
Luka thinks better Luka/KP numbers mean Mavs keep KP...he aint contributing to that.
It has nothing to do with Luka being out of shape...its that Luka hates this squad and isnt trying until Mavs prove they can manage.
Or...you can try and talk into existence Luka being worst player on Mavs is because he is out of shape AND but still trying.
(12-31-2021, 09:47 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs On/Off numbers 35 games into the season (42% of the way) for those with 200+ minutes played....
JG: +14.4 (+1.5 O, +12.9 D)
TB: +10.9 (+0.8 O, +10.1 D)
FN: +10.2 (+0.5 O, +9.7 D)
JB: +3.7 (+9.7 O, -5.9 D)
DFS: +2.4 (+6.9 O, -4.4 D)
KP: +1.4 (+0.8 O, +0.6 D)
SB: +0.8 (-3.3 O, +4.1 D)
RB: +0.3 (-4.7 O, +5.0 D)
Maxi: -3.9 (-3.2 O, -0.7 D)
THJ: -4.3 (+2.5 O, -6.8 D)
DP: -7.3 (-2.4 O, -4.9 D)
Luka: -10.8 (-3.5 O, -7.3 D)
A great example why raw on/off numbers are nearly useless. What is this really telling us? I mean looking at these numbers suggests Luka sucks and Trey Burke is one of our best players. Apparently we are not supposed to read it that way, but I'm not exactly sure what I am supposed to make out of this?
I would much rather look at an advanced on/off stat like Lebron. That suggests that Luka is struggling this season, but still playing well above NBA average. That KP is playing at all star level. That Brunson has taken his offensive game up another level. That Frank and Green are playing at NBA average level (which is huge). That Tim has struggled some, but Bullock has been terrible. This all makes so much more sense than what I can get out of those raw numbers.
(12-31-2021, 09:47 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]JG: +14.4 (+1.5 O, +12.9 D)
TB: +10.9 (+0.8 O, +10.1 D)
FN: +10.2 (+0.5 O, +9.7 D)
JB: +3.7 (+9.7 O, -5.9 D)
DFS: +2.4 (+6.9 O, -4.4 D)
KP: +1.4 (+0.8 O, +0.6 D)
SB: +0.8 (-3.3 O, +4.1 D)
RB: +0.3 (-4.7 O, +5.0 D)
Maxi: -3.9 (-3.2 O, -0.7 D)
THJ: -4.3 (+2.5 O, -6.8 D)
DP: -7.3 (-2.4 O, -4.9 D)
Luka: -10.8 (-3.5 O, -7.3 D)
A few observations from these numbers coupled with my eye test over 35 games...
1) JB has been the engine behind any offensive success this season.
2) JG & FN (as well as TB interestingly) have vastly improved the perimeter D when they play (and thereby the whole D). Without them the Mavs D falls apart.
3) In the last 10 games without Luka, KP has had an astonishing +19.4 On/Off (+15.6 O, +3.8 D) and has seemingly been key in most of the team's success.
4) In that same period JB has been -5.8, a huge dropoff from when Luka was around. The team is still +5.3 when JB plays though during these last 10 games.
5) In that same period THJ has been +9.9, a huge improvement from before Luka went out. The team has been awful when Luka and THJ share the court this year.
6) I am still just blown away at the lack of consistent team success when Luka has played this year. The team has been outscored -5.5 when he has been on the court....and has outscored the opponent +5.3 when he hasn't played. The team has been fundamentally more successful in outscoring its opponents when Luka isn't playing AND that includes the stretch of games with no Luka when the strength of schedule has been quite difficult (moreso than in the games Luka has played this year).
(12-31-2021, 11:46 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I mean looking at these numbers suggests Luka sucks and Trey Burke is one of our best players. Apparently we are not supposed to read it that way, but I'm not exactly sure what I am supposed to make out of this?
This is not an indictment of individual play....it is an indication of team play WITH certain players.
So the conclusion isn't "Luka sucks"....the conclusion is "the Mavs have sucked so far when Luka has played." Sure some of that is on Luka the individual player, but a lot of it is also on team dynamics, fit, scheme, etc.
There are some stats that say the team is consistently more successful WITH Luka.
W-L record
With Luka 12-9
Without Luka 5-9
(12-31-2021, 11:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]A few observations from these numbers coupled with my eye test over 35 games...
I feel like you go a step too far with your observations of +/- sometimes. It's a useful but limited stat that is too noisy to ever gain something useful from unless we're 75% through the season.
For instance:
(12-31-2021, 11:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]1) JB has been the engine behind any offensive success this season.
Brunson has 100% taken his offensive game to another level this season. He's looked more comfortable than ever and his hitting his shots consistently. But to say he's been the
engine of
any offensive success this season is a step too far for me. We've seen countless times while Luka has been out where the offense has died under Brunson because he's still flawed. Especially against good teams. He feasts against teams like the Kings. He struggles when it comes to next level plays when it comes to teams like the Jazz.
Luka has and will always be the engine of the offense whenever he's on the court.
(12-31-2021, 11:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]2) JG & FN (as well as TB interestingly) have vastly improved the perimeter D when they play (and thereby the whole D). Without them the Mavs D falls apart.
Green and Frank are showing their chops as reliable perimeter defenders this season. I don't think the defense has "fallen apart" because they haven't been on the court. This is less egregious than the Brunson comment, but still too grandiose for me.
(12-31-2021, 11:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]3) In the last 10 games without Luka, KP has had an astonishing +19.4 On/Off (+15.6 O, +3.8 D) and has seemingly been key in most of the team's success.
The team is running through KP while Luka has been out and it's been working. But this has always been the trend. Whenever Luka sits KP shines more often than not. I think there's something to take here and I hope Kidd can integrate this kind of KP with Luka. So far neither RC nor Kidd has been able to consistently get the best out of both of them on the court at the same time.
(12-31-2021, 11:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]4) In that same period JB has been -5.8, a huge dropoff from when Luka was around. The team is still +5.3 when JB plays though during these last 10 games.
Again I think it's probably too early to draw any conclusions from this. Luka was hobbled for 5 games before he sat and before that was in less optimal shape. Luka and Brunson historically have been slightly above average when sharing the court for the last 2 years.
(12-31-2021, 11:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]5) In that same period THJ has been +9.9, a huge improvement from before Luka went out. The team has been awful when Luka and THJ share the court this year.
I think there is something here when you couple this along with all the other stats that THJ is hurting this team bad. Brunson has made a very compelling case that he should start when THJ returns.
(12-31-2021, 11:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]6) I am still just blown away at the lack of consistent team success when Luka has played this year. The team has been outscored -5.5 when he has been on the court....and has outscored the opponent +5.3 when he hasn't played. The team has been fundamentally more successful in outscoring its opponents when Luka isn't playing AND that includes the stretch of games with no Luka when the strength of schedule has been quite difficult (moreso than in the games Luka has played this year).
Again see above. It's too noisy. Luka is by far and away our best player and the Mavs being outscored while he's on the court isn't an indictment on him when he's carrying the team night in and out and other guys are obviously not pulling their weight.