(10-28-2021, 06:37 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]All of what I'm about to say is assumption, based in part on general (amateur) NBA knowledge, more extensive knowledge of how Carlisle did things and mild speculation about Kidd based on how Brown has been used here so far.
What I think is that the term "wing" gets used a little too liberally these days by fans and media.
DFS/Bullock are CLEARLY forwards. You can call them wings, too, I suppose. Some would even put Kleber in this category, but I don't. I think he's one more step towards "big." If you want to, you can get away with calling him a wing around here, I've noticed, but I personally don't find that label fitting for him at all.
Brunson, Burke, Brown and Ntilikina are all clearly guards, at least in my mind. They, too, get called wings all the time.
The responsibilities for all players above might overlap greatly in some sets/actions, and they might even be 100% interchangeable during some parts of some games in some teams' systems, but I don't think it's wise to assume so as a given.
Brown has been handling the ball an awful lot during this young season, as if he is being given a shot to prove he can play a specific role on offense that Kidd wants someone to grow into. To me, this is an indication that he started behind only Luka, Brunson and THJ on the guard list, and tbh, that's right were I thought he'd be. I also feel like a guard's ability to play both on and off ball might be valued more or less from coach to coach - system to system. It's not clear to me yet where Kidd falls on that spectrum.
Green, imo, falls into a category with THJ - can play big guard or small forward. They're called wings often, too, but what if Kidd doesn't view that versatility as something as crucial as we're accustomed to thinking? Or, what if he values it in established pros like THJ (2/3) and DFS (3/4) but thinks it's wise to limit "learning on the job" young players to one position at a time? Expanding on that, what if he thinks the 3 should be Green's starting point, not the 2?
If that's the case, then I think it's quite easy to determine why Brown would be playing ahead of Green. I don't agree that he's a better playmaker than Brown, and I feel like I can say that confidently without even having a real grasp on Brown's playmaking ability - that's how much of an afterthought I think Green's playmaking is at this point. I think Green's ceiling in this league is 3&D with the added bonus of being able to run the floor (something we know Kidd values) and he has not yet demonstrated the ability to hit 3's. In other words, at this time, Green is not a player with a clear path onto the court, imo.
I think Green might get some burn tonight as a result of Porzingis being out, ironically, not because of Brown. No KP means more minutes with one big, probably, which means more DFS at the 4 and more DFS/Bullock on the floor together. I think this might mean we see Green during a stint or two instead of adding minutes for guys like Kleber, WCS, Powell, etc. It just depends on how Kidd wants to handle that. But, at this time, I think Green is in the mix with the forwards, not the guards.
I am fully expecting Ntilikina to get the first shot at picking up Brown's slack, as I bet they are in closer competition for a rotation spot than people realize, with Brown being given the role to lose.
Again, this is all my speculation, but to me the logic of it tracks.
Nice call on Frank getting Brown's minutes. A few thoughts on this:
I think wing originally meant guys who play/guard the 2/3 position. Recently it has expanded to include guys who play/guard the 3/4 position (big wings). I think the best way to describe a "wing" today is somebody who can reasonably guard a small forward.
You put Frank and Brown in the same category as Brunson and Burke, but I would argue they both could play the 3 and belong in the same group as Green. I think those three guys are competing directly with each other for minutes.
Brunson and Burke are the only guys on this roster who are not wings (or bigs). They need to overcome their lack of defensive versatility on the offensive end (Brunson clearly does, but Burke is questionable at best).
Given the talent spread on this roster, I don't think we want to be going two bigs as often as we are. The starting lineup in particular has two bigs and two big wings which seems excessive and unnecessary, especially when one of those bigs is not a top 7 player on the team. If we played single big lineups more often, there would be a little more breathing room for the small wings.
(10-29-2021, 09:06 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]You put Frank and Brown in the same category as Brunson and Burke, but I would argue they both could play the 3 and belong in the same group as Green. I think those three guys are competing directly with each other for minutes.
Well, that’s kind of my thesis point. Can those guys play the 3? Yes, probably. But, I bet it differs from coach to coach and system to system whether they are thought of as reasonable solutions at the 3, and it seems like calling everyone a wing is the start of a slippery slope that has a lot of fans pretty confused about just how interchangeable these guys are.
The Mavericks have started the season by running a lot of set plays. Since it’s abundantly clear that those portions of the games are the ones during which the offense performs putridly, I can only assume that the decision to do this is about getting the team on the same page with some organized sets for later, when they need them. In each of the wins, they have shifted into something very similar to last season’s flow offense for long enough to get the lead, so it seems like someone making decisions understands that that is working better right now.
Given the paragraph above, it seems logical to me that players are still wanting for experience in this new system on the FIRST position they learned. My overall point is that it might be unreasonable to expect green trotted out there at his second position, which I’m guessing is the 2.
To be even more clear, I’m speculating that simply deciding to call those two positions by the same name does not mean that they aren’t going to two, different spots on the court within the flow of each set. They are still two, different positions, learned by two, different people in practice.
Green is the youngest, least experienced active player on the team in a situation where nobody on the team is 100% comfortable with the new way of doing things. My guess is that it’s going to be a while before Green is given significant minutes in a game that is in doubt.
B-R power rankings:
15. Dallas Mavericks
Previous Ranking: 11
The Dallas Mavericks are 3-1, but it's hard to ignore a serious regression in offensive efficiency. After averaging a league-best 116.0 points per 100 possessions during the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, Dallas has spiraled to a 103.0 offensive rating (22nd).
A hot streak by Luka Doncic could certainly move things in the right direction, but new coach Jason Kidd's efforts to diversify the offense look like they're going to take time to be effective (if they ever are).
For years, simply putting the ball in Luka's hands in the middle of the floor, running a high pick-and-roll and letting him spray out to shooters was a recipe for offensive success, regardless of how predictable it was.If the Mavericks continue to struggle on that end of the floor, Kidd might have to consider giving back some control to his All-World guard.
(10-29-2021, 11:52 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]If the Mavericks continue to struggle on that end of the floor, Kidd might have to consider giving back some control to his All-World guard.
Gee, Kidd has never run into that before, has he.....
One of, if not THE story of the Mavs offense this year is how they are shooting on OPEN shots....
This year...
3P: 27.1%
2P: 35.9%
Last year...
3P: 36.9%
2P: 45.2%
Difference...
3P: -9.8%
2P: -9.3%
(10-30-2021, 07:12 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]One of, if not THE story of the Mavs offense this year is how they are shooting on OPEN shots....
This year...
3P: 27.1%
2P: 35.9%
Last year...
3P: 36.9%
2P: 45.2%
Difference...
3P: -9.8%
2P: -9.3%
AND to add:
The Mavs are shooting MORE open shots per game this year than last as well. So the looks are being generated, they are just not being made.
(10-30-2021, 07:28 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]AND to add:
The Mavs are shooting MORE open shots per game this year than last as well. So the looks are being generated, they are just not being made.
I believe you, I do. I know you've checked the numbers, and I know you understand how to read the numbers - when to bring them to the board and when to throw them out. I know all of this.
But the assertion made by the numbers you're referencing doesn't come remotely close to what I feel like I'm seeing out there. I can't explain the breakdown because I don't know the numbers as well as you, but sometimes I read stats from guys like you and think "man, I was way off" and that is simply not my reaction in this case. I'm having a viscerally opposing reaction.
Not all "open" shots are equal. There's rhythm, flow...was the guy expecting to get the ball, or was he trying to remember where to rotate next if the ball didn't come because everything is discombobulated? Even Luka has seemed like his timing has been off - passes late, and needlessly unpredictable (not in a Luka Magic way, but more in a "I think maybe there's someone over there" way). I'm not a coach, but it's PLAIN to see that this offense isn't as organized as what we're accustomed to seeing. I think it's a chicken/egg thing and I think you've got it a bit backwards. Just my opinion.
It could turn around in a week, two games, whatever. I'm not outraged, because I do see signs of buy-in and defensive effort. But, while I do agree that there have been some open shots missed I think chalking up the offensive start to this season to simply not making shots is a massive copout.
(10-30-2021, 09:29 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Not all "open" shots are equal. There's rhythm, flow...was the guy expecting to get the ball, or was he trying to remember where to rotate next if the ball didn't come because everything is discombobulated? Even Luka has seemed like his timing has been off - passes late, and needlessly unpredictable (not in a Luka Magic way, but more in a "I think maybe there's someone over there" way). I'm not a coach, but it's PLAIN to see that this offense isn't as organized as what we're accustomed to seeing. I think it's a chicken/egg thing and I think you've got it a bit backwards. Just my opinion.
I don't disagree with this.
I do think the O looks off much of the time, especially when KP was playing...but even with Luka. But there ARE open looks being generated. But for whatever reason the "rhythm" isn't there. Is it scheme changes? Is it coaching mentality? Is it random anomaly? Is it KP issues? Is it Luka issues?
I. don't. know.
(10-30-2021, 09:49 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I don't disagree with this.
I do think the O looks off much of the time, especially when KP was playing...but even with Luka. But there ARE open looks being generated. But for whatever reason the "rhythm" isn't there. Is it scheme changes? Is it coaching mentality? Is it random anomaly? Is it KP issues? Is it Luka issues?
I. don't. know.
An early deviation from the norm. Those numbers will improve as the sample size gets larger.
(10-31-2021, 12:38 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]An early deviation from the norm. Those numbers will improve as the sample size gets larger.
Which will in turn fool some into thinking this team is more talented than it is.
(10-30-2021, 09:49 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I don't disagree with this.
I do think the O looks off much of the time, especially when KP was playing...but even with Luka. But there ARE open looks being generated. But for whatever reason the "rhythm" isn't there. Is it scheme changes? Is it coaching mentality? Is it random anomaly? Is it KP issues? Is it Luka issues?
I. don't. know.
I think an important aspect is the who gets the open looks question. DFS with career high numbers in FGAs and usage. THJ on the other hand with the lowest usage since he joined the Mavs. "Back ups" like Sterling Brown or Frankie N. are getting more opportunities.
Floaters from DFS. Jumpshots from WCS or Powell. Per definition "open" shots. But not the kind of looks the Mavs want to create.
My biggest concern right now is that the Mavs are struggling to score in the paint. Mavs are dead last in points in the paint (SA leads the league with 55, Nets rank 29th with 39, Mavs 30th with 34).
The pick and roll offense that lead to easy points for bigs like Powell or WCS is completly off. Outside of Luka and Brunson no one can get to the rim. And more often than not the paint is clogged because the spacing is off.
Really strange because the Mavs dominated the paint in the preseason. Makes me hopeful that they can improve.
And now it gets difficult. What is the bigger issue right now? Is the paint clogged because the Mavs are struggling from 3? Are the shooting percentages down because the Mavs aren´t creating the drive and kick opportunities that lead to easy 3s?
(10-31-2021, 05:45 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]My biggest concern right now is that the Mavs are struggling to score in the paint.
Luka is not getting into the paint IMO at all compared to previous seasons (as far as REALLY breaking down the D he has seemed very ineffective compared to previous years). Can't tell if it his conditioning, effort, spacing, or rule changes that is making the difference, but I think a lot goes back to this.
(10-31-2021, 05:45 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]THJ on the other hand with the lowest usage since he joined the Mavs.
Certainly a problem. I've notice him take (and make) some questionable shots that but I really can't say I blame him. He needs more looks.
(10-31-2021, 01:10 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Certainly a problem. I've notice him take (and make) some questionable shots that but I really can't say I blame him. He needs more looks.
I prefer him as a super 6th man. When he is making his shots he looks good, when he is missing not so much. Still though, he has a track record of shooting a good percentage here throughout the season.
I just have felt this team is way too reliant on Hardaway and Brunson for offense. I would like it much better if we had another scorer we could count on each game. This team really struggles typically when Brunson or Hardaway have an off game scoring. It doesn't give us much wiggle room on offense imo
I just did a trade that works but has to be done after November 6th. It really makes me wonder if it will go down LOL (Evil Grin) Happy Holloweeen!!!!
Dallas Receives
Ben Simmons
Laure Markkanen
Andre Drummond
Cleveland Receives
KP
Dwight Powell
Moses Brown
Danny Green
Trey Burke
Future 1st from Dallas
Philly Receives
Moses Brown
Kevin Love
Collin Sexton
Josh Green
The all-too-common 12 player trade!
Through 6 games the Mavs are 4-2 and tied for 3rd in the West. If you had asked me if I would have taken that at the beginning of the season with a new coach and system? I would have taken that 100 times out of 100.
It's not been pretty, but I will take it.
(10-31-2021, 09:48 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It's not been pretty, but I will take it.
Perfect description of the first 6 games.
Honestly scared because we've lost big against the two definitive playoff teams, and have cleaned up against teams that we're supposed to take care of. But TOR, SAS, and SAC all already have good wins against strong teams.
We still have the same flaws with this roster 3 years running. Hopefully Cubes finally grows some balls and makes a change.