MavsBoard

RE: The Story of the Season IMO

The Mavs through 16 games have shot 68-249 on OPEN threes. That is 27.3% on 15.6 attempts per game.

Last year the Mavs shot 36.9% on OPEN threes on 16.5 attempts per game.

The Mavs are shooting 9.6% less on OPEN threes. And when you take open and wide-open looks together the Mavs are basically generating the exact same number of good looks from three as last year. But they are converting them at an alarmingly lower rate.


The Mavs have scored 103.6 pts/gm and given up 105.5 pts/gm, -1.9 net. If they were converting open three point looks at the same rate (not to mention open two point looks which are also down) they would have 108.1 pts/gm and a net rating of +2.6.

I posted last week about this somewhere that they were shooting worse on open threes while taking more open threes than last year.

It's also not just open 3s, but wide open shots... They are getting more than last year and were 12th in the NBA.

In open shots (4-6 feet), the Mavs LEAD THE LEAGUE and they were getting more than last year and shooting worse.

Kidd is not being obtuse about the Mavs just not hitting their looks.  He's right and it's not all DFS or Dwight getting all the open looks because I checked that and they are about the same.  Luka is getting more open threes and in fact, most of the team has seen an uptick in open shots per game.

(11-22-2021, 04:06 PM)TXBamanut Wrote: [ -> ]I posted last week about this somewhere that they were shooting worse on open threes while taking more open threes than last year.

It's also not just open 3s, but wide open shots... They are getting more than last year and were 12th in the NBA.

In open shots (4-6 feet), the Mavs LEAD THE LEAGUE and they were getting more than last year and shooting worse.

Kidd is not being obtuse about the Mavs just not hitting their looks.  He's right and it's not all DFS or Dwight getting all the open looks because I checked that and they are about the same.  Luka is getting more open threes and in fact, most of the team has seen an uptick in open shots per game.

Well, so here's the issue, then (I think):

HOW they're getting them is new, in many cases. Not all, as much of Luka/Brunson generated offense is similar, but many. 

If, as I think you're suggesting, Kidd's tweaks to the offensive approach are working BETTER than what was done in the past, then the shooting is probably just a matter of rhythm. In other words, the players not all expecting the plays to end the way they are ending...being organized and ready to shoot, etc. 

If you're correct (at least with what I think you're suggesting) then there's really not much to worry about. The shooters will start hitting shots as they get more comfortable with how things are working. IF that's really the situation. 

I think I at least partially agree, so I'm not freaking out as much as some. I'm not sure I totally agree that the team is getting a higher volume of what I'd consider good shots, however.

(11-22-2021, 04:23 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Well, so here's the issue, then (I think):

HOW they're getting them is new, in many cases. Not all, as much of Luka/Brunson generated offense is similar, but many. 

If, as I think you're suggesting, Kidd's tweaks to the offensive approach are working BETTER than what was done in the past, then the shooting is probably just a matter of rhythm. In other words, the players not all expecting the plays to end the way they are ending...being organized and ready to shoot, etc. 

If you're correct (at least with what I think you're suggesting) then there's really not much to worry about. The shooters will start hitting shots as they get more comfortable with how things are working. IF that's really the situation. 

I think I at least partially agree, so I'm not freaking out as much as some. I'm not sure I totally agree that the team is getting a higher volume of what I'd consider good shots, however.

I kind of am suggesting that this is at least a fair and reasonable possibility.

I mean, we're getting more wide open shots.
We're getting more open shots.
Our better shooters are also getting more open and wide open shots.
We have upgraded some of the positions with historically better shooters.

Ergo...suggesting that we aren't in as big of a pickle as some think is quite possible.

To me, this is part of the reason that I'm not panicking AND it's also why I think this part of the schedule was an excellent time to experience these adjusting issues.  Couple that with the fact that at least to the eye test, I think we are better defensively.

I'd expect the rest of the season to get better, and I think Kidd is on the right track and I also think KP isn't trash and we don't need to blow the team up and go lottery, like a lot of impatient and unwise fans suggest.

I could be wrong, but I don't think I'm betting on a winning the Powerball sized occurrence to happen to be right either.

(11-22-2021, 06:58 PM)TXBamanut Wrote: [ -> ]I mean, we're getting more wide open shots.
We're getting more open shots.
Our better shooters are also getting more open and wide open shots.
We have upgraded some of the positions with historically better shooters.

I can get behind the math of the above, and trust that you've checked it. The only resistance my mind offers to this line of thinking (even if I partially agree) is that my eyes aren't noticing an increase in possessions that end with shots I like. Again, I'm not disputing the info you've provided, but also not feeling like a wide open Powell corner 3 is the yardstick of an offense that's functioning with method and purpose (I realize this is an oversimplified argument - just using it as an example to make a point).

I'm definitely seeing MORE method and purpose than I did during the first few games, that's for sure. So, there is reason for some optimism. I just don't think I'm quite ready to go all in on the idea that this is all going to click and work perfectly at some point. At least, not yet. I realize that this isn't strictly what you're suggesting, either. 

(11-22-2021, 06:58 PM)TXBamanut Wrote: [ -> ]To me, this part of the reason that I'm not panicking AND it's also why I think this part of the schedule was an excellent time to experience these adjusting issues.  Couple that with the fact that at least to the eye test, I think we are better defensively.

I think there's evidence of defensive progress, FOR SURE. I don't think they have solved the Porzingis pick-and-roll issues yet, and if I were Kidd that would be causing me to miss sleep. 

(11-22-2021, 06:58 PM)TXBamanut Wrote: [ -> ]I'd expect the rest of the season to get better, and I think Kidd is on the right track and I also think KP isn't trash and we don't need to blow the team up and go lottery, like a lot of impatient and unwise fans suggest.

Totally agreed on the "blow it up" part. Blowing it up means trading Luka. There's really nothing else here to blow up, unless I'm misunderstanding the term. 

KP has been performing pretty well offensively - better than I ever imagined he would again. I still don't like the midrange stuff from him, but the deep paint catches have been good. I think he needs to roll more. You know, get going downhill before he gets the ball. I've seen him make some plays recently out of short rolls I didn't know he was capable of: passes to the corners off of the dribble and such. 

So, Credit to Kidd (or Korkoskov, or both) for getting this level out of him (and to KP, too, of course). BUT, it's still not as good as what we're used to seeing back when everything was about Luka and everyone else was either a roller or a spacer. While I'm up for changes that diversify that, for a number of reasons, I can't help but wonder if those changes aren't only additive, but also making it harder for Luka to do what he has done in the past. If that's the case (too early to tell) then I'm not sure it's a step in the right direction, personally. Heck, maybe some of the confusion of all of this is even on Luka. 

Defensively, KP has policed the paint strongly, lately - when he's in the paint at the same time as the ball. That's good, because he didn't do that well last season, really. He has done ok at times on switches (in iso), too. Well enough, anyway. It's the pick-and-roll stuff, man. I just don't think he has the agility needed to handle that stuff effectively. By the time he realizes which of the 100 variations of that attack is happening, it's too late. Lob pass over his head, open pull-up on the baseline, step-back, etc, etc, etc. 

I'm cautiously optimistic. Not ready to panic, but not feeling über confident this is the right path, either.

To date:  (per nba.com - open, wide open and def rating -- and Hollinger's NBA Team Stats -- Pace)

Wide Open shots (Nearest defender 6+ feet)
13.  Dallas Mavericks -- 19.9 shots/game
(Last year 12th - 19.4 shots/game)

Open shots (Nearest defender 4-6 feet)
2.  Dallas Mavericks -- 26.4 shots/game
(Last year 4th -- 24.1 shots/game)

Pace
29.  Dallas Mavericks -- 96 possessions/game
(Last year 25th - 99.5 possessions/game)

Maybe the last stat has something to do with it.

Team defensive rating
17.  Dallas Mavericks - 108.1
(Last year 21st -- 112.3)

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1462...wONJ5l-APQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/...GQLqpJaMfg&s=19

He will probably be out a LONG time...it's not too late to tank!

(11-22-2021, 11:31 PM)SwisherPrice Wrote: [ -> ]He will probably be out a LONG time...it's not too late to tank!

Why long time? is this a serious injury?

(11-23-2021, 12:14 PM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]Why long time? is this a serious injury?

No one knows yet

He is at shootaround, shooting the ball. Tho i assume his knee is fine (at least nothing major).

https://twitter.com/DwainPrice/status/14...8190678017

https://twitter.com/DwainPrice/status/14...2135440388