MavsBoard

(02-28-2022, 08:40 AM)Paul Gasol Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/...mark-cuban

Sorry, didn’t see this posted somewhere else.

My favourite part was when Cuban said “we wouldn’t burn a second round pick (on Bronny), just for the sake of burning it”

Burning a second round pick for Satnam Singh or ‘Sarge’ or in any mavericks trade ever, no problem, but burning a second round pick for a year of Lebron… that’s a bridge too far…

I agree with your sentiment about valuing draft picks, but I want no part of whatever circus it will be with LBJ and his kid. IF you start the year planning to tank (e.g., OKC) then I could see doing it just for whatever ticket sales you get from the media storm. But I wouldn't what them anywhere around a competitive team.

Since the trade the Mavs have played 4 games, all on the road, and have been the underdog 3 out of 4, going 3-1 during that stretch.

+5.5 @ MIA  (W 107-99)
-2.5 @ NOP (W 125-118)
+6 @ UTA  (L 109-114)
+4 @ GSW  (W 107-101)


Small sample alert... Looking through the numbers I was curious to see how the trade has affected Brunson. There seems to be a downward trend of minutes played and shot attempts taken, which is a reflection of scoring decreasing also. It's hard to make any definitive statement, but the eye test and the "trend" gives some credit to those wanting to keep Dinwiddie over Brunson this off-season. I want both but I think the way Brunson performs in the playoffs this year may ultimately determine his fate with the Mavs. 

Brunson--

@ MIA: 39 MIN / 14 FGA / 19 PTS
@ NOP: 37 MIN / 13 FGA / 23 PTS
@ UTA: 36 MIN / 11 FGA / 8 PTS
@ GSW: 32 MIN / 9 FGA / 8 PTS

AVG: 36 MIN / 11.7 FGA / 14.5 PPG

10-Game average prior to trade: 35 MIN / 13.7 FGA / 17.4 PPG

Season Average: 32 MIN / 12.8 FGA / 16 PPG




Quick comparison, here's Dinwiddie:

@ MIA: 23 MIN / 5 FGA / 4 PTS
@ NOP: 30 MIN / 5 FGA / 8 PTS
@ UTA: 26 MIN / 12 FGA / 20 PTS
@ GSW: 31 MIN / 14 FGA / 22 PTS

AVG: 28 MIN / 9 FGA / 13.5 PPG

(02-28-2022, 10:57 AM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with your sentiment about valuing draft picks, but I want no part of whatever circus it will be with LBJ and his kid. IF you start the year planning to tank (e.g., OKC) then I could see doing it just for whatever ticket sales you get from the media storm. But I wouldn't what them anywhere around a competitive team.

Imagine being the coach and having to navigate the delicate situation around playing time with Lebron and his kid.

Obviously Lebron is going to push for as much playing time as possible. That's on top of all the other headaches Lebron brings to a team.

The Mavs with LeBron:

LeBron to Cuban:
https://media.giphy.com/media/Eo9HeoF3JS.../giphy.gif

Cuban to LeBron:
https://media.giphy.com/media/vNdzCDT8b8.../giphy.gif

LeBron to Cuban:
https://media.giphy.com/media/rVZEejvVWEbug/giphy.gif

Cuban to LeBron:
https://media.giphy.com/media/kGzaiRJ9ka.../giphy.gif

Luka to Cuban:
https://media.giphy.com/media/1svA1qt8T2.../giphy.gif

Updated lineup numbers as we are now two months into our run of really good play:

In four games (3 wins), SD has a double digit positive net rating with every player on the team except Powell and Bullock.  Powell makes sense as both do most of their scoring in the same space.  Bullock and SD have only shared the floor in two of their four games, so the sample is smaller and contained in games that had some really rough stretches.

Interestingly, Bertans has a double digit positive net rating with everyone he's played more than 9 minutes with except Powell.  

If you go back to 12/30, when this bit of really good play began, it is hard to find bad two man lineups.  Powell with Luka and Powell with Brunson is much better than Maxi with either guard.  Maxi and Powell together has not been good during this time (it has been good in the past under a different system).  

Hardaway played in 13 games during this run before he got hurt.  It was hit and miss in terms of lineup data.  He was double digit positive when on court with Luka, Bullock, Green and Maxi.  He was +1.1 with Brunson, +0.3 with DFS, +2.0 with Powell.  Those last three are among the lowest two man ratings during this two month period.

If you move up to three man lineups, the thing that stand out is the O really suffers in the following lineups:

  Maxi/DFS/Brunson
  Maxi/DFS/Luka (the only negative net rating in the top 17 lineups)
  Maxi/Brunson/Luka

There are three negative Net Ratings among the top 16 four man lineups used during this period.  Maxi is in the most used lineup (Maxi/DFS/Brunson/Luka) which is -0.4.  The other two negative lineups include both Maxi and Powell together.  The issue in all of the bad four man lineups is the O kind of dies.

That last part is an important point.  Pre-trade, D was routinely great and we were good unless the O sputtered.  Post trade, D is routinely bad and the O is consistently better.  The four game average O/D ratings are 121.5/117.2 (1st/27th).  For the full season it is 110.9/107.3 (16th/(5th).  From 12/30 until now is has been 113.9/105.4 (12th/2nd)

We've been playing good teams during this four game stretch and the rhythm has been disrupted by the AS break, but probably the biggest thing to watch is whether we can recapture our defensive prowess while maintaining the offensive numbers the new guys are helping us generate.  If that is the case, then Hardaway returning isn't a help.  Green provides more of what we need.  I think the numbers also confirm the eye test conclusion that neither of our centers should be starting.  Both would probably make fine backups, but neither has enough to carry the position against the good front court players on playoff teams.

(03-01-2022, 08:00 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Post trade, D is routinely bad and the O is consistently better.

Thanks for the analysis. I think it has to be taken into account that samples are small and there is a lot of noise. I think there is some difference in data used. NBA.com has Dallas O/D rating in last four games at 119.1/114.3 - 4th O and 18th D.  I am also not sure why do you think defense is bad in last four games - speaking about the word routinely. Perhaps I don't understand the word correctly. I understand it in a meaning as: routinely bad D = bad D in every game. 

Based on my understanding of the word, I would say that results don't confirm it. Results show that the defense was good against Miami and GSW. It was not that good against Utah and NOP. But in this last case defense was good for three quarters, only later Mavs basically stopped playing due to high advantage - NOP scored 37 points in last quarter. You also have to take into account the shooting - was Utah shooting good because defense was bad or because they hit tough(er) shots? And the opposite with GSW. 

So I can't really say that defense is really any worse than it has been before. There was at least one 4 game stretch in January/February where defense rating was worse than in this last four games. 

I think the THJ and centers conclusions are spot on. I think Mavs have even increased problem of bad contracts based on the role they are playing with the team and have to consolidate very quickly, in the summer at latest as the value of the guys will just continue to plummet. If I separate them in a couple of categories:

DFS, Luka and Brunson are the only one on great contracts - about to change in a couple of months for all of them. I think the new contract of DFS, based on his production and age, is in the "ok" range. I hope we will be able to put same label on Brunson new deal. Luka is untouchable in any case. I think the only sense with Brunson is here to stay as his trade value is low due to his UFA status. 

I agree best role for both Powell and Maxi is the third big on a contender. Based on this their salary is ok - the problem is Mavs have two "third bigs" while in reality they only need one and a cheaper fourth big. The goal should be to upgrade one to a legit starter. 

I think both THJ and SD contracts can be ok if they can play enough minutes. Problem is, there is only enough minutes for three out of Luka, JB, SD and THJ. I agree THJ should be the odd man out. I hope they can convince someone he is a viable starter or 6th man - in that case his salary is ok.

DFS and Bullock are good wings and Bullock salary is ok. However, both are more of a fifth starter type. 

Burke, Brown (why did they even sign him???) and Bobi are all overpaid. Should be vet min - difficult to get value for them. 

Green is an interesting dilemma. Right now he is ok for that 15 minute per night role. But is there a role for him long term? Paying another guy 10 per just to be a 15 minutes per game reserve is another bad contract on the team. Reducing minutes of SD or JB doesn't make much sense because they are not on ok contracts anymore if you do so. Can he provide more production than any of SD or JB?

Bertans is bad contract. He is playing a role of a specialist like Forbes and I just don't see how his role could increase or how would anyone really see him as something more. Forbes is paid 4,5 million. 

FN and Chriss have good contracts for the role they are playing. 

Here are the ranks of Mavs as I see the team should be constructed and where current players fit:
Starter 1 Primary creator: Luka
Starter 2 (shooter, secondary creator): Brunson or SD
Starter 3 (3-D wing): Bullock or DFS (but not both)
Starter 4 (big wing, 3-D, secondary creator): none
Starter 5 (center): none
6th man: Brunson or SD
shooting spark: THJ or Bertans (both greatly overpaid for this role)
3rd big: Powell or Kleber (but not both)
4th guard: Green (as long he is on the rookie contract, probably too expensive afterwards)
4th big: Chriss
5th guard/wing: FN or Brown (Brown overpaid for this role)
3rd PG: Burke (overpaid for the role)
deep bench: FN, Brown, Burke, Bobi

I think Mavs need to upgrade one wing and one center to come into contender conversations. THJ, one of Powell/Kleber and one of DFS/Bullock are most suitable contracts to get the deals done. Bullock (or perhaps THJ) for Holmes is one very natural possibility for both sides. Problem is, can we convert the rest and the assets into the big wing we need? The good thing is that we can sort of sell the "Robin" position to our targets now since KP is gone.

(03-01-2022, 10:54 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think both THJ and SD contracts can be ok if they can play enough minutes.

I like this post but I don't think I necessarily agree with this line of thinking.  It is 100% helpful to be able to showcase your assets on the court but I would argue that both these players have done enough to prove they can fill big minutes in this league.  Just because there isn't minutes for them here doesn't necessarily mean there's not minutes elsewhere in a different situation.  I think there will be plenty of teams that see Hardaway and his 54 mil remaining over 3 years as a good value deal based on what he showed against the Clippers in the playoffs.

I agree that we have a handful of these contracts that, while they can fill a big name trade financially, aren't necessarily a player to build a big name trade around but I would also say that all of these contracts can be moved for more value on the dollar than we got for KP which unfortunately is kind of the name of the game currently.

(03-01-2022, 10:54 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Starter 1 Primary creator: Luka
Starter 2 (shooter, secondary creator): Brunson or SD
Starter 3 (3-D wing): Bullock or DFS (but not both)
Starter 4 (big wing, 3-D, secondary creator): none
Starter 5 (center): none

I think this is pretty spot on with how I see this team. One thing I wanted to point out is the big wing kinda HAS to be a secondary creator because what we have as current options at the Starter 3 spot are 2 guys that don't provide that. IF we were to get someone like Brooks (that mold, not the player as I think he's a staple for MEM, Mann is another name for the mold), the Starter 4 can then just be a spot up 3 shooter, they CAN have secondary creator ability, but don't HAVE to have it (the more secondary creators the better).

BTW, a good post up player is secondary creation (emphasis on good), I think Collins makes a really good option at the big wing if we can pull together the assets to get him. In that case, I also think Kleber is the better 3rd big option for his shot blocking ability when he plays with Collins and 3 ability when he plays with the other big (and Collins for that matter). Getting Collins and keeping Powell as the 3rd big would take lots of figuring out when Powell and Collins play together.

Edit: Also, I think Maxi's money is on par with a 3rd big, Powell's is too close to being what we want for the starting C since we would not play him for stretches kinda like Zubac which lowers the minutes they all play.

(03-01-2022, 12:33 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Getting Collins and keeping Powell as the 3rd big would take lots of figuring out when Powell and Collins play together.

This also applies to Holmes or any other non shooting big that can only be used in a PnR to be effective offensively. I think Kleber type of center (but better) is ideal to pair with Collins. I really like Collins, but I am affraid it is very difficult to build around him as he is basically an undersized center with PnR being his most powerfull weapon. Since we agree Powell or Maxi are a third center type, what kind of center would then be the starting center to play next to Collins? Turner might be an option as he is more of a floor spacer than PnR guy, but they are both valued very highly and I am affraid we don't have the assets for both.

(03-01-2022, 12:33 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]IF we were to get someone like Brooks (that mold, not the player as I think he's a staple for MEM, Mann is another name for the mold),

I really like Brooks and to some extent Mann, but I am affraid those are very redundant to strong players we already have. Brooks would basically play same role SD/JB (or DFS/Bullock) do and he is certainly too small for a big wing type. I also think DFS/Bullock are too small for the big wing role against elite wings like LeBron or Kawhi.

(03-01-2022, 12:42 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]This also applies to Holmes or any other non shooting big that can only be used in a PnR to be effective offensively. I think Kleber type of center (but better) is ideal to pair with Collins. I really like Collins, but I am affraid it is very difficult to build around him as he is basically an undersized center with PnR being his most powerfull weapon. Since we agree Powell or Maxi are a third center type, what kind of center would then be the starting center to play next to Collins? Turner might be an option as he is more of a floor spacer than PnR guy, but they are both valued very highly and I am affraid we don't have the assets for both.

So, the reason I like Kleber with Collins as the 3rd big is cause Collins can shoot the 3, so when he's in with the Starter 5, he plays mainly the spacer role. He then gets to play the PnR/post up role when Maxi comes in. He's the guy that can play with both types, but he wants a bigger role than he's getting in Atl, so we feature him a bit more than there. Collins/Turner would be the dream scenario for sure (given Turner's health isn't degenerative), but I'm with you, we don't have the assets to get both (maybe not even 1). This is why I think Holmes (play and contract) is the best fit based on attainability.

Holmes and Powell basically makes Collins main priority as a spacer which is a waste of talent (and money, esp if he wants a bigger role than he's getting in Atl).

(03-01-2022, 12:46 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I really like Brooks and to some extent Mann, but I am affraid those are very redundant to strong players we already have. Brooks would basically play same role SD/JB (or DFS/Bullock) do and he is certainly too small for a big wing type. I also think DFS/Bullock are too small for the big wing role against elite wings like LeBron or Kawhi.

This is why I said if we were to replace DFS/Bullock with a Brooks type, it would allow us more freedom to get a big wing that isn't as creator based (lots more DFS/Bullock sized wings that can play a secondary creator role than there are big wings). Flexibility is the word for the moment. I don't think that will actually happen, but it makes the search that much harder to find the Big wing secondary creator than the other way around. As far as team building is concerned.

(03-01-2022, 10:54 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think Mavs need to upgrade one wing and one center to come into contender conversations. THJ, one of Powell/Kleber and one of DFS/Bullock are most suitable contracts to get the deals done. Bullock (or perhaps THJ) for Holmes is one very natural possibility for both sides. Problem is, can we convert the rest and the assets into the big wing we need? The good thing is that we can sort of sell the "Robin" position to our targets now since KP is gone.

I only differ from your thoughts in one place. 

First, I think the Mavs should keep both Bullock and DFS. I understand you're trying to consolidate contracts and upgrade performance in other areas, and I agree with you that should be the goal, but Bullock and DFS are good role players for their position and contracts.

Bullock's contract has him ranked 54th highest paid for forwards (Bertans by the way ranks 37th). Right in line with guys like Jae Crowder and Robert Covington. That's the going rate for 3 and D specialists and the Mavs have desperately needed them for a while so we shouldn't be so eager to forego one to upgrade another position. Especially since Bullock+DFS have had excellent net ratings and play positions of need.  

If we are going to consolidate contracts, getting rid of bloat is the first priority. Like you identified: Burke, Brown, and THJ all have to go. Which is about 27 mil right there. Powell needs his salary either greatly reduced to 2-5 mil or be shipped out. That's another 6-8 mil. That accounts for ~34-38 mil that the Mavs need to get rid of and should be split among the starting C, PF, and 7th man. 

(03-01-2022, 10:54 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Here are the ranks of Mavs as I see the team should be constructed and where current players fit:
Starter 1 Primary creator: Luka
Starter 2 (shooter, secondary creator): Brunson or SD
Starter 3 (3-D wing): Bullock or DFS (but not both)
Starter 4 (big wing, 3-D, secondary creator): none
Starter 5 (center): none
6th man: Brunson or SD
shooting spark: THJ or Bertans (both greatly overpaid for this role)
3rd big: Powell or Kleber (but not both)
4th guard: Green (as long he is on the rookie contract, probably too expensive afterwards)
4th big: Chriss
5th guard/wing: FN or Brown (Brown overpaid for this role)
3rd PG: Burke (overpaid for the role)
deep bench: FN, Brown, Burke, Bobi

When it comes to the 2 guard/6th man debate with JB and SD, I think the Mavs have already cemented those roles with JB getting the nod and SD being the 6th man. At 18 mil, SD is bit overpaid for a 6th man but if he brings 13ppg along with defense and passing it's solid enough. 

Maxi has to be extended at the most for 18mil for 2 years. That's what Serge Ibaka got 2 years ago when he was 31. That's what Maxi is worth. If he wants any more then he needs to be traded this offseason. 

Starter 1: Luka
Starter 2: JB
Starting 3: DFS
Starting 4: ----
Starting 5:----
6th man: SD
7th man (2nd forward): Bullock
8th man(2nd 4): Maxi...? Bertans...? One too limited offensively, the other too limited defensively (and supremely overpaid)
9th man (2nd 5): Powell...? (overpaid at 11mil)
10-15: Burke, Brown, Chriss, Frank, Green, Bobi (with Burke and Brown needing to be replaced with vet min guys)


Some trade thoughts:

You mentioned Holmes for THJ, a framework thrown out by Dan earlier this week. It's one of my favorite ideas. It makes the most sense for both teams and falls right in budget for the 5. 
For the starting 4, everyone here wants/dreams John Collins. But ATL wants defensive wings. Are we willing to give away DFS? Bullock? I'm more inclined for the latter than the former. It becomes less appetizing when we take a step back and realize we need to throw in Maxi along with picks as well. Expensive. It's tough to try and find a 4 because we basically need a combination of Maxi and Bertans in 1 guy. That's a superstar. 

To me there are tiers of guys that are available this summer:

Tier 1 (will never be traded): Luka, Boban. 
Tier 2 (we're listening, but it has to be a really good offer): Brunson, DFS.
Tier 3 (They can be had but it won't be a bargain): Maxi, Bullock
Tier 4 (We got to pay to get rid of these guys so it's probably better to just keep them): SD, Powell, Bertans
Tier 5 (We don't need these guys, please get rid of them for us): THJ, Burke, Brown
Tier 6 (The afterthoughts): Frank, Green, Chriss,

(03-01-2022, 01:21 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]it makes the search that much harder to find the Big wing secondary creator than the other way around. As far as team building is concerned.

I am still on the Grant train, especially with KP gone. He could be available and we could sell him the story he is our Robin and have him do some (not too much) iso stuff to make him happy. He fits perfectly on the defensive side as the big switchable wing. THJ, 2022 FRP and 2027 FRP for Grant and Bullock for Holmes would make our team very interesting imho. 

Luka, SD
Brunson, Brown
DFS, Green
Grant, Maxi
Holmes, Powell

With KP gone, Wood might also be a very interesting name for the center position. Capable of both PnR and shooting. Didn't watch him enough to know about his defense. He mainly played on crappy teams so his numbers might have a lot of noise, both in negative and positive way.

(03-01-2022, 03:17 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I am still on the Grant train, especially with KP gone. He could be available and we could sell him the story he is our Robin and have him do some (not too much) iso stuff to make him happy. He fits perfectly on the defensive side as the big switchable wing. THJ, 2022 FRP and 2027 FRP for Grant and Bullock for Holmes would make our team very interesting imho. 

Luka, SD
Brunson, Brown
DFS, Green
Grant, Maxi
Holmes, Powell

With KP gone, Wood might also be a very interesting name for the center position. Capable of both PnR and shooting. Didn't watch him enough to know about his defense. He mainly played on crappy teams so his numbers might have a lot of noise, both in negative and positive way.

Those are 4 names that if we came away from next offseason with 2 of, we're in really good shape (assuming we don't gouge too much into the core group).

(12-15-2021, 10:49 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, the Carlisle stuff was mostly rehashed stuff.  I found the Dennis Smith stuff interesting though.

How could anyone have any trust on a Cuban led franchise now?   Things seemed so dysfunctional for years there.   For me, it starts and ends with Cuban.  Whatever he has been doing since 2011 outside of one draft night has been pretty much a clown show.

https://twitter.com/Dennis1SmithJr/statu...1826226180

(03-01-2022, 03:16 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I only differ from your thoughts in one place. 

First, I think the Mavs should keep both Bullock and DFS. I understand you're trying to consolidate contracts and upgrade performance in other areas, and I agree with you that should be the goal, but Bullock and DFS are good role players for their position and contracts.

Bullock's contract has him ranked 54th highest paid for forwards (Bertans by the way ranks 37th). Right in line with guys like Jae Crowder and Robert Covington. That's the going rate for 3 and D specialists and the Mavs have desperately needed them for a while so we shouldn't be so eager to forego one to upgrade another position. Especially since Bullock+DFS have had excellent net ratings and play positions of need.  

If we are going to consolidate contracts, getting rid of bloat is the first priority. Like you identified: Burke, Brown, and THJ all have to go. Which is about 27 mil right there. Powell needs his salary either greatly reduced to 2-5 mil or be shipped out. That's another 6-8 mil. That accounts for ~34-38 mil that the Mavs need to get rid of and should be split among the starting C, PF, and 7th man. 




When it comes to the 2 guard/6th man debate with JB and SD, I think the Mavs have already cemented those roles with JB getting the nod and SD being the 6th man. At 18 mil, SD is bit overpaid for a 6th man but if he brings 13ppg along with defense and passing it's solid enough. 

Maxi has to be extended at the most for 18mil for 2 years. That's what Serge Ibaka got 2 years ago when he was 31. That's what Maxi is worth. If he wants any more then he needs to be traded this offseason. 

Starter 1: Luka
Starter 2: JB
Starting 3: DFS
Starting 4: ----
Starting 5:----
6th man: SD
7th man (2nd forward): Bullock
8th man(2nd 4): Maxi...? Bertans...? One too limited offensively, the other too limited defensively (and supremely overpaid)
9th man (2nd 5): Powell...? (overpaid at 11mil)
10-15: Burke, Brown, Chriss, Frank, Green, Bobi (with Burke and Brown needing to be replaced with vet min guys)


Some trade thoughts:

You mentioned Holmes for THJ, a framework thrown out by Dan earlier this week. It's one of my favorite ideas. It makes the most sense for both teams and falls right in budget for the 5. 
For the starting 4, everyone here wants/dreams John Collins. But ATL wants defensive wings. Are we willing to give away DFS? Bullock? I'm more inclined for the latter than the former. It becomes less appetizing when we take a step back and realize we need to throw in Maxi along with picks as well. Expensive. It's tough to try and find a 4 because we basically need a combination of Maxi and Bertans in 1 guy. That's a superstar. 

To me there are tiers of guys that are available this summer:

Tier 1 (will never be traded): Luka, Boban. 
Tier 2 (we're listening, but it has to be a really good offer): Brunson, DFS.
Tier 3 (They can be had but it won't be a bargain): Maxi, Bullock
Tier 4 (We got to pay to get rid of these guys so it's probably better to just keep them): SD, Powell, Bertans
Tier 5 (We don't need these guys, please get rid of them for us): THJ, Burke, Brown
Tier 6 (The afterthoughts): Frank, Green, Chriss,

I am not really with you on the thinking about the Tiers. I think Mavs need to focus on what they need, where we agree. I don't think Mavs need to get rid of THJ, Burke, Brown. They need to upgrade them. However, if it takes Maxi and Bullock instead of THJ to get what we need, we can still make it work with THJ. Of course I have no idea how Mavs really negotiate, but so far we have only listened to reports like "they were offering THJ to everyone". I think the focus needs to be - we want "insert your favorite player name here". What would it take to get him? Both players we need should be far better than Maxi or our other role players, so it shouldn't be a problem to include any of them in the deal.

THJ for Holmes is a nice idea, but I am not so sure about Sacramento seeing it as equal. There are 29 other teams who see how obviously available Holmes is and there will certainly be competition for his services as he is a proven player on great contract. I don't think his post Sabonis games will have much impact on his evaluation. THJ had a bad season and even if he returns, he will likely get small chance to prove he is better. It might actually be better to sit him for the remainder of the season. I think Sacramento could see Bullock as a better option than THJ and I would still do it. 

As for Collins. I doubt Atlanta is interested in role players. They have plenty of their own and they are arguably better than ours. I think they are looking for a star. They are also looking to win now, so the picks are of little interest to them. Could we snatch Collins in a three team deal with a team that would not be looking for win now players but picks and stuff? Unfortunatelly, Collins is young and on a long term contract, so even a rebuilding team could see him as one of core building blocks for the future.

I will say, I don't think Grant will be any less expensive than Collins and Wood sounds like he'll be much more trade expensive to get too.

(03-01-2022, 03:16 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I only differ from your thoughts in one place. 

First, I think the Mavs should keep both Bullock and DFS. I understand you're trying to consolidate contracts and upgrade performance in other areas, and I agree with you that should be the goal, but Bullock and DFS are good role players for their position and contracts.

Bullock's contract has him ranked 54th highest paid for forwards (Bertans by the way ranks 37th). Right in line with guys like Jae Crowder and Robert Covington. That's the going rate for 3 and D specialists and the Mavs have desperately needed them for a while so we shouldn't be so eager to forego one to upgrade another position. Especially since Bullock+DFS have had excellent net ratings and play positions of need.  

If we are going to consolidate contracts, getting rid of bloat is the first priority. Like you identified: Burke, Brown, and THJ all have to go. Which is about 27 mil right there. Powell needs his salary either greatly reduced to 2-5 mil or be shipped out. That's another 6-8 mil. That accounts for ~34-38 mil that the Mavs need to get rid of and should be split among the starting C, PF, and 7th man. 




When it comes to the 2 guard/6th man debate with JB and SD, I think the Mavs have already cemented those roles with JB getting the nod and SD being the 6th man. At 18 mil, SD is bit overpaid for a 6th man but if he brings 13ppg along with defense and passing it's solid enough. 

Maxi has to be extended at the most for 18mil for 2 years. That's what Serge Ibaka got 2 years ago when he was 31. That's what Maxi is worth. If he wants any more then he needs to be traded this offseason. 

Starter 1: Luka
Starter 2: JB
Starting 3: DFS
Starting 4: ----
Starting 5:----
6th man: SD
7th man (2nd forward): Bullock
8th man(2nd 4): Maxi...? Bertans...? One too limited offensively, the other too limited defensively (and supremely overpaid)
9th man (2nd 5): Powell...? (overpaid at 11mil)
10-15: Burke, Brown, Chriss, Frank, Green, Bobi (with Burke and Brown needing to be replaced with vet min guys)


Some trade thoughts:

You mentioned Holmes for THJ, a framework thrown out by Dan earlier this week. It's one of my favorite ideas. It makes the most sense for both teams and falls right in budget for the 5. 
For the starting 4, everyone here wants/dreams John Collins. But ATL wants defensive wings. Are we willing to give away DFS? Bullock? I'm more inclined for the latter than the former. It becomes less appetizing when we take a step back and realize we need to throw in Maxi along with picks as well. Expensive. It's tough to try and find a 4 because we basically need a combination of Maxi and Bertans in 1 guy. That's a superstar. 

To me there are tiers of guys that are available this summer:

Tier 1 (will never be traded): Luka, Boban. 
Tier 2 (we're listening, but it has to be a really good offer): Brunson, DFS.
Tier 3 (They can be had but it won't be a bargain): Maxi, Bullock
Tier 4 (We got to pay to get rid of these guys so it's probably better to just keep them): SD, Powell, Bertans
Tier 5 (We don't need these guys, please get rid of them for us): THJ, Burke, Brown
Tier 6 (The afterthoughts): Frank, Green, Chriss,

I was just about to "like" this... until I got to the Green slander haha. Good write-up otherwise.

Luka
Brunson
DFS
X
X

Dinwiddie
Bullock
Maxi
Green
Bertans


Powell and THJ are serviceable NBA players for some team that isn't the Mavs, it is a must that they are upgraded this off-season. Boban isn't hurting anybody by being here. Burke, Brown, Frank and Chriss are closer to being out of the NBA than they are being rotational players. Dump them as you can...

(03-01-2022, 03:41 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I will say, I don't think Grant will be any less expensive than Collins and Wood sounds like he'll be much more trade expensive to get too.

I think Collins is a long shot for Mavs, simply because where Atlanta is in the team building stage. I find it very unlikely Atlanta would be interested in a couple of role players and picks. 

I think it is very possible that the price demand for Grant will be unreasonable. I think two picks (the 2022 pick will be in the twenties) is a fair offer. More than that is unrealistic for a player on an expiring deal that will command a substantial pay raise. 

I am not sure Mavs have ammo for potential top free agents like Lillard or Beal. So should they spend for second or third tier stars like Grant or wait with same team for another season? If they fail in playoffs again, waiting will be very difficult. 

What might become available? 

I think Atlanta, Boston, Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Golden State, Clippers, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Minny, NO, Philly, Phoenix and Toronto will only look for either star upgrades (Mavs don't have) or improvements around the edges (them not willing to trade good players). 

Charlotte likely still needs a center and PJ Washington might be available. Could he be the big wing starter we are looking for? Perhaps, not very sure.

Detroit has Grant and will listen to proposals. Mavs will have better assets on draft night than they did at TDL.

Houston has Wood, look at Grant description.

Brogdon is a very interesting name with Indiana, but where would we fit him with Brunson, SD and THJ? Hield is killing it for them so far, so difficult to see how they would be convinced THJ is an upgrade. Turner is also there, but basically their only center. 

LeBron situation with Lakers will be very interesting. Will they consider trading him? If not, Davis might get available (they can't improve just by trading Westbrook). But as long as LeBron is there, stars are the only thing that interests them. 

NY will certainly want to upgrade, but there is no one I would be interested in, that would fill one of those two positions of need. OKC also has basically nothing interesting that would be available. 

Orlando has Isaac. Always injured, but very good when he wasn't a decade or two ago  Not really sure why would they look to sell low since they are not looking to turn into a contender soon. Unless now it is not sell low, in which case I am not interested at all.

Portland might finish what they started by trading Lillard or they might cash in the gained cap space and picks for someone like Ayton. In any case I don't see much possibility for Mavs to jump in. 

Sacramento will try for 287th time in the row to get to play-in (and fail again). I guess Holmes will be traded. 

San Antonio. I expect an end of an era with Pop reitiring as a coach with most wins in history. What will follow? Likely a full scale rebuild. Is Murray part of long term plans? He is older than rest of the rebuilding guys and has only two years left - if he doesn't want to be part of a likely long term rebuild, the time to sell is summer or TDL. I am not really interested in anything else there. Poeltl is imho not good enough to justify the cost. 

Washington has never ending Beal story. He will likely sign that huge extension and be traded later. Not interested in anything else there.

Utah is the team that is most likely to blow it up if they fail in the playoffs. However, I am not a Gobert fan and Mitchell is reportedly more enamored with more flashy locations. The rest doesn't really fill our needs. Perhaps switch one of our long term contracts (THJ, Bertans) for expiring Bogdanovic?

(03-01-2022, 03:16 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I only differ from your thoughts in one place. 

First, I think the Mavs should keep both Bullock and DFS. I understand you're trying to consolidate contracts and upgrade performance in other areas, and I agree with you that should be the goal, but Bullock and DFS are good role players for their position and contracts.

Bullock's contract has him ranked 54th highest paid for forwards (Bertans by the way ranks 37th). Right in line with guys like Jae Crowder and Robert Covington. That's the going rate for 3 and D specialists and the Mavs have desperately needed them for a while so we shouldn't be so eager to forego one to upgrade another position. Especially since Bullock+DFS have had excellent net ratings and play positions of need.  

If we are going to consolidate contracts, getting rid of bloat is the first priority. Like you identified: Burke, Brown, and THJ all have to go. Which is about 27 mil right there. Powell needs his salary either greatly reduced to 2-5 mil or be shipped out. That's another 6-8 mil. That accounts for ~34-38 mil that the Mavs need to get rid of and should be split among the starting C, PF, and 7th man. 

When it comes to the 2 guard/6th man debate with JB and SD, I think the Mavs have already cemented those roles with JB getting the nod and SD being the 6th man. At 18 mil, SD is bit overpaid for a 6th man but if he brings 13ppg along with defense and passing it's solid enough. 

Maxi has to be extended at the most for 18mil for 2 years. That's what Serge Ibaka got 2 years ago when he was 31. That's what Maxi is worth. If he wants any more then he needs to be traded this offseason. 

Starter 1: Luka
Starter 2: JB
Starting 3: DFS
Starting 4: ----
Starting 5:----
6th man: SD
7th man (2nd forward): Bullock
8th man(2nd 4): Maxi...? Bertans...? One too limited offensively, the other too limited defensively (and supremely overpaid)
9th man (2nd 5): Powell...? (overpaid at 11mil)
10-15: Burke, Brown, Chriss, Frank, Green, Bobi (with Burke and Brown needing to be replaced with vet min guys)


Some trade thoughts:

You mentioned Holmes for THJ, a framework thrown out by Dan earlier this week. It's one of my favorite ideas. It makes the most sense for both teams and falls right in budget for the 5. 
For the starting 4, everyone here wants/dreams John Collins. But ATL wants defensive wings. Are we willing to give away DFS? Bullock? I'm more inclined for the latter than the former. It becomes less appetizing when we take a step back and realize we need to throw in Maxi along with picks as well. Expensive. It's tough to try and find a 4 because we basically need a combination of Maxi and Bertans in 1 guy. That's a superstar. 

To me there are tiers of guys that are available this summer:

Tier 1 (will never be traded): Luka, Boban. 
Tier 2 (we're listening, but it has to be a really good offer): Brunson, DFS.
Tier 3 (They can be had but it won't be a bargain): Maxi, Bullock
Tier 4 (We got to pay to get rid of these guys so it's probably better to just keep them): SD, Powell, Bertans
Tier 5 (We don't need these guys, please get rid of them for us): THJ, Burke, Brown
Tier 6 (The afterthoughts): Frank, Green, Chriss,

I agree with everything in this post except for Green being in your afterthought bucket.  A THJ for Holmes trade makes a ton of sense in a lot of ways.  After that, its hard to imagine a whole lot of moves to make.  Most guys are either negative assets that we can't afford to get off of, or more valuable to this team then they likely would be in a trade.  

Sign Brunson and trade for center (Holmes) and wait to get past the 23 draft when we have access to all of our assets.  I see that being the offseason where we make our "Jrue Holiday" move.